New Thinking on Covid Lockdowns: They’re Overly Blunt and Costly

[Monykalyn]

What do you think of that UI girl who got Covid and took a bus knowing she had Covid?

A lot of Tuggers are traveling now. What do you think of that?

'I just can't do this': UI student who tested positive for COVID-19 recounts school response

Annie Gaughan's account went viral on social media this week. It began as a long thread posted to Instagram but migrated across platforms.

www.press-citizen.com

This story? My gosh what that poor kid went through! NO WAY do I blame her as it seemed to be a very last resort.
And NO jail time, fines etc are NOT WHAT YOU DO!! Sorry not sorry-do NOT want to live in a police/state/country!!! Nothing is 100% black and white

 

[am1]

'I just can't do this': UI student who tested positive for COVID-19 recounts school response

Annie Gaughan's account went viral on social media this week. It began as a long thread posted to Instagram but migrated across platforms.

www.press-citizen.com

This story? My gosh what that poor kid went through! NO WAY do I blame her as it seemed to be a very last resort.
And NO jail time, fines etc are NOT WHAT YOU DO!! Sorry not sorry-do NOT want to live in a police/state/country!!! Nothing is 100% black and white

And the people on the bus for 3.5 hours? There is a reason why it keeps spreading. Her issue seems to be with her university. No need to keep spreading it. Hopefully she recovers, no one gets infected from her poor choices and gets to a university that is willing to do more.

 

[Passepartout]

Look. These comments simply make my eyes glaze over. This disease is out there. There is no cure. There is no vaccine. We know how to protect others, but not how to protect ourselves. Not completely. So DO WHAT YOU KNOW WILL PROTECT OTHERS! To do otherwise is simply irresponsible. Questions?

Jim

 

[DannyTS]

"Everything we do before a pandemic will seem alarmist. Everything we do after a pandemic will seem inadequate. This is the dilemma we face, but it should not stop us from doing what we can to prepare. We need to reach out to everyone with words that inform, but not inflame. We need to encourage everyone to prepare, but not panic." — Michael O. Leavitt, 2007


People still refuse to wear masks.

And there aren’t enough tests (and certainly not enough rapid tests) to do bubbles for universities.

Lockdowns are hard and blunt, yes. But since we didn’t prepare appropriately lockdowns were the only sure methods to prevent uncontrolled spread. Most places eased up lockdowns ASAP and then re-instituted them if cases/hospitalizations/deaths spiked.

How didn’t we prepare? Here’s how: hospitals didn’t get enough masks or tests, governments didn’t get enough masks or tests, they waited forever to beef up contact tracing teams and tools, etc etc).

Sweden killed a lot of people. And there’s no reason to think ‘it’s over’ or ‘they achieved herd immunity.’ That’s fiction. We won’t know the real scope of the damage for many months. Sweden is simply declaring victory without evidence of true victory. Case rates can rise and fall for various reasons, a trend downward doesn’t preclude a future trend upward.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

no, Sweden did not killed a lot of people. They registered the peak of deaths on April 9th, 3 weeks after many countries started a lockdown. Those deaths would have not been avoided by a lockdown, CDC states that there is a 4 week lag between contact and a reported death (and in many cases a lot longer). Sweden has a lower rate of deaths per capita than a lot of states.

 

[CPNY]

Look. These comments simply make my eyes glaze over. This disease is out there. There is no cure. There is no vaccine. We know how to protect others, but not how to protect ourselves. Not completely. So DO WHAT YOU KNOW WILL PROTECT OTHERS! To do otherwise is simply irresponsible. Questions?

Jim

It’s interesting that SARS Cov 2 was found in the dead bodies of Chinese miners that came across bats in a cave back in 2012. It’s been around much longer that previously thought. I agree though, we need to take precautions, but we can do so while opening and staying open.

 

[cman]

Sweden has a lower rate of deaths per capita than a lot of states.

Fact: Sweden has more deaths per capita than most countries on the planet. Now, if you want to look at countries that avoided lock downs and contained the virus, you need to look to Asia. South Korea would be a good place to start.

 

[cman]

What if I call it "the first country that reached herd immunity"? That is probably worse I imagine.

Disinformation Alert: Sweden has not reached heard immunity. They're not anywhere close.

 

[bluehende]

It’s interesting that SARS Cov 2 was found in the dead bodies of Chinese miners that came across bats in a cave back in 2012. It’s been around much longer that previously thought. I agree though, we need to take precautions, but we can do so while opening and staying open.

It would be if true. The article you posted claimed that because the miners died of flu like symptoms it was Cov 2. By that logic the 1918 pandemic was caused by it too. It was hogwash.

 

[jabberwocky]

Fact: Sweden has more deaths per capita than most countries on the planet. Now, if you want to look at countries that avoided lock downs and contained the virus, you need to look to Asia. South Korea would be a good place to start.

South Korea is facing a new surge. They just closed down schools in Seoul today. From the Financial Times:

Schools and kindergartens in Seoul have been forced to close and move their classes online as the South Korean government ratchets up measures in response to a worsening resurgence in coronavirus transmission across the country.

The move is the latest in a series of actions in the past week to reinstate social distancing measures across the country, including restricting travel in and out of the capital and mandating people wear masks while in public in the city.

The Korea Centers for Disease Control on Tuesday reported 280 new confirmed Covid-19 infections, marking nearly 3,200 new cases reported over the past 12 days in what is the country’s worst coronavirus emergency in six months.

 

[cman]

South Korea is facing a new surge. They just closed down schools in Seoul today. From the Financial Times:

But they're doing a lot better than Sweden (6/miillion deaths vs Sweden's 575/million). So is Laos, Taiwan and Vietnam. They are experiencing a surge in cases, but the difference between them and us, is that they have effective procedures in place to deal with such a surge.

 

["Roger"]

As my eyes glaze over, trying to offer at least a fresh perspective (inspired but certainly not authorized by Danny).

Given the choice, where would you liked to have or would like to live in the future? Your choices are

a. Canada (which went through not a perfect, but a lock down better respected than what we have seen in the US).
b. Florida (where the goal was complete openness, admittedly somewhat spoiled by some local governments which imposed lock downs not authorized by the state).
c. Canada in the past, but then move to Florida sometime in the future.

Assume whatever you want about collective immunity. (That it exists and is fairly easily obtainable, that no state or nation is anywhere near achieving it, that we just don't know about it yet.)

 

[DannyTS]

Disinformation Alert: Sweden has not reached heard immunity. They're not anywhere close.

Fact: cman cannot explain why Sweden had the peak of deaths on April 9th and why the deaths per day are virtually zero now if they did not reach herd immunity.

deaths/day Sweden

Fact: experts said that Sweden has reached herd immunity, you have to debate this with them not with me

Sweden Has Developed Herd Immunity, Experts Claim. Others Point to its High Fatality Rate.

Sweden has seen 5,810 deaths from Covid-19, which is much more than its neighbors so the approach has come with a cost.

www.barrons.com

Most likely a fact: some people see red when they hear the word Sweden

 

[Cornell]

@DannyTS

You meant to say “ Sverige”

 

[Brett]

As my eyes glaze over, trying to offer at least a fresh perspective (inspired but certainly not authorized by Danny).

Given the choice, where would you liked to have or would like to live in the future? Your choices are

a. Canada (which went through not a perfect, but a lock down better respected than what we have seen in the US).
b. Florida (where the goal was complete openness, admittedly somewhat spoiled by some local governments which imposed lock downs not authorized by the state).
c. Canada in the past, but then move to Florida sometime in the future.

Assume whatever you want about collective immunity. (That it exists and is fairly easily obtainable, that no state or nation is anywhere near achieving it, that we just don't know about it yet.)

But what about New Zealand ?

(and the big surge)

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/watch/coronavirus-new-zealand

 

[DannyTS]

Fact: Sweden has more deaths per capita than most countries on the planet. Now, if you want to look at countries that avoided lock downs and contained the virus, you need to look to Asia. South Korea would be a good place to start.

Fact: Many states and countries have a (much) bigger number of deaths per 1 million despite their lockdowns:

Fact: In Sweden most deaths occured in March,April and early May and those would have not been avoided by a lockdown in mid-March. Like New York, Sweden just had more infection at the beginning. CDC explained that there is a 4-8 week lag between the contact with an infected person and a reported death so please explain how a lockdown would have lowered the number significantly, even if lockdowns were effective.

Fact: most countries have very unreliable data and that makes the comparison with Sweden difficult. Iran for example reported 363,000 infections to date but their officials stated they had around 25 million infections. How do you compare the two?

Projections: US will exceed Sweden in the number of deaths/million in the next couple of weeks (probably sooner the way it is going). Other countries would also exceed Sweden in the next few weeks and months.

Fact: you will see no correlation between the states with the most stringent measures and the number of deaths/million

Fact: If you look state by state, the number of cases started to trend down before the lockdowns and started to trend up before the end of the lockdowns which puts further pressure on those who claim lockdowns are effective.

 

[DannyTS]

@DannyTS

You meant to say “ Sverige”

lol I meant Sverige

 

[Monykalyn]

And the people on the bus for 3.5 hours? There is a reason why it keeps spreading. Her issue seems to be with her university. No need to keep spreading it. Hopefully she recovers, no one gets infected from her poor choices and gets to a university that is willing to do more.

I am curious as to what you think she should have done? Stay in a filthy room? by herself with inadequate food and sanitation-possibly leading to a secondary lethal infection? Wait days longer in her room with her roommate? Walk home? What?
The reason it keeps spreading is because it is tiny tiny tiny particles and highly infectious. We could stay in a hermetically sealed bubble for 6 months and still find case 6 months later - see Korea, new Zealand etc. The virus will be there until no more wood to burn, and even then it's gonna find sticks to keep a low burn on. People who think we will ever get to zero cases are not facing reality. Reality is CFR is dropping and continuing to drop.
I am disappointed that the first responders didn't insist on her coming with them when they saw the living situation.
Doesn't say how many were on that bus with her. If all wore masks the risk is minimal. She was alone, the school had NO support, her parents were in a CDC high risk category-she had to make a choice out of a plethora of BAD choices. No I do NOT blame her. I blame the situation that only led to POOR choices.

 

[Chrisky]

Save Yourself: Stop Believing in Lockdown

Save Yourself: Stop Believing in Lockdown

"As Voltaire wrote during the Enlightenment — when society still had time away from the screen to reflect on philosophy, morality, and fundamental truth — 'those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities.'" ~ Stacey Rudin

www.aier.org

What‽. ?? Sweden again!!
It shows in the above post that I gave it a thumbs up. That was a mistake, sorry.
☹

 

[am1]

I am curious as to what you think she should have done? Stay in a filthy room? by herself with inadequate food and sanitation-possibly leading to a secondary lethal infection? Wait days longer in her room with her roommate? Walk home? What?
The reason it keeps spreading is because it is tiny tiny tiny particles and highly infectious. We could stay in a hermetically sealed bubble for 6 months and still find case 6 months later - see Korea, new Zealand etc. The virus will be there until no more wood to burn, and even then it's gonna find sticks to keep a low burn on. People who think we will ever get to zero cases are not facing reality. Reality is CFR is dropping and continuing to drop.
I am disappointed that the first responders didn't insist on her coming with them when they saw the living situation.
Doesn't say how many were on that bus with her. If all wore masks the risk is minimal. She was alone, the school had NO support, her parents were in a CDC high risk category-she had to make a choice out of a plethora of BAD choices. No I do NOT blame her. I blame the situation that only led to POOR choices.

But her and your choice keeps the cycle going. Puts other people at risk. In Iowa is using public transportation against the law if you know you are infected? Did she inform the bus company she was infected so they could take proper measures to keep other safe?

Getting together like they did the first day of college was a bad decision as well. College should have had people quaratine in their dorms first before mingling.

 

[DannyTS]

What‽. ?? Sweden again!!
It shows in the above post that I gave it a thumbs up. That was a mistake, sorry.
☹

What do you mean by "Sweden again"? You cannot discuss the efficiency of a lockdown without looking at countries that did not lock down. Sweden is a good example because it has reliable data and because it has been widely covered so we know a lot about their Covid related measures.

 

[Cornell]

The student from Univ of Iowa is featured in this story mid summer. Her statement implies that she's not totally naive as to what the "rules and regs" are regarding Covid .

Some students don’t have any other option but to bring their parents who work. UI first-year Annie Gaughan, who is from Park Ridge, said her parents are both teachers who will have to be back in person the week after move-in. They plan to move her within a 24-hour period, Gaughan said, so they can avoid the quarantine.

Students coming to the UI from Chicago share concerns about required travel quarantine

Some University of Iowa students from Illinois are worried about how Chicago’s mandatory quarantine on travelers will affect the people who plan to help them move to Iowa City. The Chicago Department of Health Commissioner Allison Arwady issued an Emergency Travel Order on July 2, requiring...

dailyiowan.com

 

[TravelTime]

As my eyes glaze over, trying to offer at least a fresh perspective (inspired but certainly not authorized by Danny).

Given the choice, where would you liked to have or would like to live in the future? Your choices are

a. Canada (which went through not a perfect, but a lock down better respected than what we have seen in the US).
b. Florida (where the goal was complete openness, admittedly somewhat spoiled by some local governments which imposed lock downs not authorized by the state).
c. Canada in the past, but then move to Florida sometime in the future.

Assume whatever you want about collective immunity. (That it exists and is fairly easily obtainable, that no state or nation is anywhere near achieving it, that we just don't know about it yet.)

Not sure what the purpose of this question is. I would choose Florida. I have no desire to live in Canada. I am from South Florida and my family lives there. Everyone I know in Florida is safe and healthy.

 

[TravelTime]

Fact: Many states and countries have a (much) bigger number of deaths per 1 million despite their lockdowns:

View attachment 25391

Fact: In Sweden most deaths occured in March,April and early May and those would have not been avoided by a lockdown in mid-March. Like New York, Sweden just had more infection at the beginning. CDC explained that there is a 4-8 week lag between the contact with an infected person and a reported death so please explain how a lockdown would have lowered the number significantly, even if lockdowns were effective.

Fact: most countries have very unreliable data and that makes the comparison with Sweden difficult. Iran for example reported 363,000 infections to date but their officials stated they had around 25 million infections. How do you compare the two?

Projections: US will exceed Sweden in the number of deaths/million in the next couple of weeks (probably sooner the way it is going). Other countries would also exceed Sweden in the next few weeks and months.

Fact: you will see no correlation between the states with the most stringent measures and the number of deaths/million

Fact: If you look state by state, the number of cases started to trend down before the lockdowns and started to trend up before the end of the lockdowns which puts further pressure on those who claim lockdowns are effective.

I wonder if there is a way to look at deaths per million excluding nursing homes and essential workers. I think this would be a more accurate look at how states and countries are doing since this would reflect how the average person in a non-high risk category is doing.

 

[TravelTime]

I am curious as to what you think she should have done? Stay in a filthy room? by herself with inadequate food and sanitation-possibly leading to a secondary lethal infection? Wait days longer in her room with her roommate? Walk home? What?
The reason it keeps spreading is because it is tiny tiny tiny particles and highly infectious. We could stay in a hermetically sealed bubble for 6 months and still find case 6 months later - see Korea, new Zealand etc. The virus will be there until no more wood to burn, and even then it's gonna find sticks to keep a low burn on. People who think we will ever get to zero cases are not facing reality. Reality is CFR is dropping and continuing to drop.
I am disappointed that the first responders didn't insist on her coming with them when they saw the living situation.
Doesn't say how many were on that bus with her. If all wore masks the risk is minimal. She was alone, the school had NO support, her parents were in a CDC high risk category-she had to make a choice out of a plethora of BAD choices. No I do NOT blame her. I blame the situation that only led to POOR choices.

We are all making assumptions based on one news article. We do not have the facts.

 

[rapmarks]

I am curious as to what you think she should have done? Stay in a filthy room? by herself with inadequate food and sanitation-possibly leading to a secondary lethal infection? Wait days longer in her room with her roommate? Walk home? What?
The reason it keeps spreading is because it is tiny tiny tiny particles and highly infectious. We could stay in a hermetically sealed bubble for 6 months and still find case 6 months later - see Korea, new Zealand etc. The virus will be there until no more wood to burn, and even then it's gonna find sticks to keep a low burn on. People who think we will ever get to zero cases are not facing reality. Reality is CFR is dropping and continuing to drop.
I am disappointed that the first responders didn't insist on her coming with them when they saw the living situation.
Doesn't say how many were on that bus with her. If all wore masks the risk is minimal. She was alone, the school had NO support, her parents were in a CDC high risk category-she had to make a choice out of a plethora of BAD choices. No I do NOT blame her. I blame the situation that only led to POOR choices.

What I missed is if she was going to go stay in a hotel, why take a long bus ride to a Chicago hotel. Why not go to a nearby hotel