New Thinking on Covid Lockdowns: They’re Overly Blunt and Costly

[DannyTS]

We are all making assumptions based on one news article. We do not have the facts.

With that article, somebody managed to derail the thread pretty well. What that girl did is not that important.

 

[am1]

What I missed is if she was going to go stay in a hotel, why take a long bus ride to a Chicago hotel. Why not go to a nearby hotel

The $5 question.

 

["Roger"]

Not sure what the purpose of this question is. I would choose Florida. I have no desire to live in Canada. I am from South Florida and my family lives there. Everyone I know in Florida is safe and healthy.

You did miss the point. (Sorry) It had nothing to do with which location you find more desirable. It was a question about one's preference for lock down versus the hope for community immunity put in more familiar terms. Would you have preferred to have lived in Florida and taken your chances on the high number of hospitalizations and deaths that they have experienced so that you might reach community immunity, or, in Canada which has had a far lower number of hospitalizations and deaths but might be much further away from any community immunity. The note after the three choices is an acknowledgement that how strongly you believe that Sweden Florida is actually approaching community immunity would affect your choice

My own preference would be Canada, but maybe I am also being influenced by outside factors also (apart from my age which puts me into a higher risk category). I have had two trips outside of the United States cancelled already and fear that my wife and my plans to visit where we spent our honeymoon on our fiftieth anniversary will also be cancelled. Being stuck in the United States has been the pits.

 

[DannyTS]

You did miss the point. (Sorry) It had nothing to do with which location you find more desirable. It was a question about one's preference for lock down versus the hope for community immunity put in more familiar terms. Would you have preferred to have lived in Florida and taken your chances on the high number of hospitalizations and deaths that they have experienced so that you might reach community immunity, or, in Canada which has had a far lower number of hospitalizations and deaths but might be much further away from any community immunity. The note after the three choices is an acknowledgement that how strongly you believe that Sweden Florida is actually approaching community immunity would affect your choice

My own preference would be Canada, but maybe I am also being influenced by outside factors also (apart from my age which puts me into a higher risk category). I have had two trips outside of the United States cancelled already and fear that my wife and my plans to visit where we spent our honeymoon on our fiftieth anniversary will also be cancelled. Being stuck in the United States has been the pits.

Everything else being equal, I would prefer to live where they already had more infections in the past since those with low infection rates are more vulnerable in the future.

Parts of London and New York have already achieved 'substantial' immunity, Harvard epidemiologists say

Parts of London and New York have already achieved “substantial” immunity, with the threshold lower than previously thought, scientists have told the Telegraph. The results of recent antibody testing has led experts to predict that some areas might be better insulated from any second surge of...

www.yahoo.com

 

[TravelTime]

You did miss the point. (Sorry) It had nothing to do with which location you find more desirable. It was a question about one's preference for lock down versus the hope for community immunity put in more familiar terms. Would you have preferred to have lived in Florida and taken your chances on the high number of hospitalizations and deaths that they have experienced so that you might reach community immunity, or, in Canada which has had a far lower number of hospitalizations and deaths but might be much further away from any community immunity. The note after the three choices is an acknowledgement that how strongly you believe that Sweden Florida is actually approaching community immunity would affect your choice

My own preference would be Canada, but maybe I am also being influenced by outside factors also (apart from my age which puts me into a higher risk category). I have had two trips outside of the United States cancelled already and fear that my wife and my plans to visit where we spent our honeymoon on our fiftieth anniversary will also be cancelled. Being stuck in the United States has been the pits.

I suspected that you were asking this to get an idea of how risk averse we are since you mention something about immunity was but it was not clear to me. I answered the question based on my assessment of risk so I said I would prefer Florida. My family lives there and so far no one has gotten sick or died that we know and several family members are essential workers. I do not see living in FL as a big risk if you follow safety guidelines. Immunity does not affect my choice.

 

[TravelTime]

Everything else being equal, I would prefer to live where they already had more infections in the past since those with low infection rates are more vulnerable in the future.

Parts of London and New York have already achieved 'substantial' immunity, Harvard epidemiologists say

Parts of London and New York have already achieved “substantial” immunity, with the threshold lower than previously thought, scientists have told the Telegraph. The results of recent antibody testing has led experts to predict that some areas might be better insulated from any second surge of...

www.yahoo.com

Good point. I would not hypothetically choose where to live based on Covid.

 

[DannyTS]

We could ‘beat’ COVID-19 before a vaccine is ready

We could ‘beat’ COVID-19 before a vaccine is ready

Is a vaccine the only way to return to normal after COVID-19? New research into the virus suggests not — that the infection rate may drop to tiny levels before then. Since the spring, scientists h…

nypost.com

 

[geekette]

But her and your choice keeps the cycle going. Puts other people at risk. In Iowa is using public transportation against the law if you know you are infected? Did she inform the bus company she was infected so they could take proper measures to keep other safe?

Getting together like they did the first day of college was a bad decision as well. College should have had people quaratine in their dorms first before mingling.

The college told her to not even tell her parents she tested positive. I doubt they would have encouraged her to tell anyone.

College did not undertake these ideas of yours. Students moved freely. It sounds like most were masked. That is not perfect protection.

How do you quarantine in a dorm with shared bathrooms and eating facilities and pretend there is no chance of spread? enclosed building, sharing air.

Do you really think that dorm quarantine would have solved anything?

 

[geekette]

What I missed is if she was going to go stay in a hotel, why take a long bus ride to a Chicago hotel. Why not go to a nearby hotel

I think she was trying to get nearer her parents. The only people that would visit or pay her hospital bills, if it came to that. She was sick, and wanted to go home, and couldn't really do that, either. Not sure how the college student was going to pay hotel bill, either. I would have needed Dad to bail me out or run up big credit debt.

I don't know, tho, just throwing a guess out there.

 

[am1]

That was the college trying to protect their image. That should have no bearing on her getting on a bus exposing others. No doubt she has beef and maybe a case against University of Iowa. The strength coach walked away with 1.1 million plus benefits after being accused of bias behavior.

Yes more measures could have been taken in regards to people from all over coming to campus. This will happen at all universities and already students are being sent home or at least kicked off campus. A true disaster that was just waiting to happen. Her parents and her should have thought her being infected was a possibility or getting infected while on campus.

 

[Cornell]

I have an alternative story to share. Just talked to a good friend of mine. Her son voluntarily took a covid test 2 days before he left for college. Negative. Got to campus and had to get tested again as part of the mass-testing that colleges are doing. He tested postiive. Told he had to quarantine on campus at some "covid dorm" for 14 days . He had his dad come pick him up to take him home to quarantine instead. Got home and took a rapid covid test once he got there: negative. Lots of false positives on these tests and they have big ramifications on people.

CDC is currently NOT recommending testing of asymptotic people.

 

[geekette]

....Her parents and her should have thought her being infected was a possibility or getting infected while on campus.

And? Believed administrators that they had a plan in case that happened? Did they understand that infection would mean unsanitary dorm with very strange meals (cold rice? does anyone eat that except my dog?) and exactly 36 oz of water per day? Were they told that their young daughter might have to walk across campus by herself in the middle of the night with all her provisions for 14 days and no help? Did they know that their daughter would be pressured to not tell them she was infected? Was that all part of the upfront college plan conveyed to them before she agreed to go to campus?

I agree, if you are planning to go somewhere with lots of people, risk of infection is pretty high, mask or not.

to me, the infected college student ended up in a desperate situation. Desperate people do desperate things. she is hardly the lone superspreader of the nation....

 

[jabberwocky]

My own preference would be Canada, but maybe I am also being influenced by outside factors also (apart from my age which puts me into a higher risk category). I have had two trips outside of the United States cancelled already and fear that my wife and my plans to visit where we spent our honeymoon on our fiftieth anniversary will also be cancelled. Being stuck in the United States has been the pits.

“Canada” is a pretty big country is very decentralized - I would argue much more than the US in the sense that the provinces run the show when it comes to healthcare and public health orders. Each of these provinces has had very different approaches and the federal government has had no real involvement. Some did complete lockdowns and even banned non-residents from coming into the province. Others have been much more relaxed and had a very broad definition of essential services and hardly locked down.

Some provinces had a huge amount of cases with corresponding deaths (although around 80% are nursing homes in Canada). Others are just seeing the first wave come through.

Our metro area is a current hotspot and it is getting worse. The city has a bit over one million people, but our active cases per 100,000 is higher than Florida currently is in some pockets. The New York Times lists Florida at around 124/100k. The sub-zone of the city where my parents live is at 149/100k. The average for the city as a whole is around 98/100k. Despite this, there are 22 hospitalized cases in the city, three of which are ICU. No one seems to be panicking even though we’re headed in the wrong direction and arguably worse than many parts of the US.

So why are we so smug in thinking we’re so much better than the US is? If you ask me where I would prefer to live right now, I would say Florida. Being stuck in Canada has been the pits.

 

[am1]

....Her parents and her should have thought her being infected was a possibility or getting infected while on campus.

And? Believed administrators that they had a plan in case that happened? Did they understand that infection would mean unsanitary dorm with very strange meals (cold rice? does anyone eat that except my dog?) and exactly 36 oz of water per day? Were they told that their young daughter might have to walk across campus by herself in the middle of the night with all her provisions for 14 days and no help? Did they know that their daughter would be pressured to not tell them she was infected? Was that all part of the upfront college plan conveyed to them before she agreed to go to campus?

I agree, if you are planning to go somewhere with lots of people, risk of infection is pretty high, mask or not.

to me, the infected college student ended up in a desperate situation. Desperate people do desperate things. she is hardly the lone superspreader of the nation....

That is an issue between her, her parents and the university. Did they call beforehand and ask what the protocol was? Desperate people go to jail as well. Probably on a higher basis then non desperate people. Non of that should have bearing on exposing others to covid over a 3.5 bus trip.

 

[TravelTime]

“Canada” is a pretty big country is very decentralized - I would argue much more than the US in the sense that the provinces run the show when it comes to healthcare and public health orders. Each of these provinces has had very different approaches and the federal government has had no real involvement. Some did complete lockdowns and even banned non-residents from coming into the province. Others have been much more relaxed and had a very broad definition of essential services and hardly locked down.

Some provinces had a huge amount of cases with corresponding deaths (although around 80% are nursing homes in Canada). Others are just seeing the first wave come through.

Our metro area is a current hotspot and it is getting worse. The city has a bit over one million people, but our active cases per 100,000 is higher than Florida currently is in some pockets. The New York Times lists Florida at around 124/100k. The sub-zone of the city where my parents live is at 149/100k. The average for the city as a whole is around 98/100k. Despite this, there are 22 hospitalized cases in the city, three of which are ICU. No one seems to be panicking even though we’re headed in the wrong direction and arguably worse than many parts of the US.

So why are we so smug in thinking we’re so much better than the US is? If you ask me where I would prefer to live right now, I would say Florida. Being stuck in Canada has been the pits.

Lots of people are moving to Florida right now. It can’t be that bad.

 

[TravelTime]

Sad story about a little boy who struggles with online learning.

A mother captured an emotional photo of her son crying in virtual class to show difficulties of distance learning during pandemic — CNN

When her son returned to virtual learning last week, Jana Coombs saw him struggling.

apple.news

 

[TravelTime]

These mental health statistics are scary.

Coronavirus Today: The COVID blues — Los Angeles Times

Our special-edition newsletter breaks down the latest coronavirus news, including the severe impact the pandemic is having on Californians' mental health.

apple.news

In late July, more than 41% of adults in the U.S. reported levels of worry and sadness typically associated with an anxiety or major depressive disorder, according to survey data from the National Center for Health Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau. At the same time last year, that figure was just 11%.

The numbers were worse in California — where 44% reported those high levels of anxiety and depression — as well as in other states in the West and South, where coronavirus cases surged in the summer. The pattern suggests anxiety levels may rise alongside the spread of the virus. Time will tell whether reducing the virus' spread also helps reduce mental health issues.

Californians with lower incomes also reported higher levels of anxiety or depression in the survey. And perhaps surprisingly, younger Californians expressed far more anxiety and depression than older Californians, even though people in older age groups are far more likely to fall severely ill from the virus. While 73% of Californians between 18 and 29 said they were "not being able to stop or control worrying," just 42% of those over 80 agreed with that statement. The results echo those of another recent survey that found elevated levels of mental health challenges among Americans, particularly young adults.

 

[Cornell]

Sad story about a little boy who struggles with online learning.

A mother captured an emotional photo of her son crying in virtual class to show difficulties of distance learning during pandemic — CNN

When her son returned to virtual learning last week, Jana Coombs saw him struggling.

apple.news

I posted this on another thread and was told to stop whining .

 

[TravelTime]

I posted this on another thread and was told to stop whining .

I must have missed your post. You and I have a lot of empathy for children.

 

[TravelTime]

I posted this on another thread and was told to stop whining .

BTW did you notice the mental health stats in the article I just posted? 73% of Californians between 18 and 29 said they were "not being able to stop or control worrying." These stats are scary.

 

[TravelTime]

-

 

[PigsDad]

BTW did you notice the mental health stats in the article I just posted? 73% of Californians between 18 and 29 said they were "not being able to stop or control worrying." These stats are scary.

It doesn't surprise me that the young are being adversely affected in large numbers/percentages. That group is probably the group that is hit hardest by the economic impact -- more likely to be working in the service businesses that have been shutdown across the board, more likely to have less savings to cushion any financial impact, more likely to be unemployed, etc.

Far too often we see people brush off the economic impact of this pandemic as unimportant, and that is mostly by people who are more at risk of the disease due to age and are definitely more financially stable. I've even witnessed this older, more financially stable group of people stating that it is immoral to compare the economic impact to the medical impact that this pandemic is causing. That is also scary, IMO.

Kurt

 

[Cornell]

And perhaps surprisingly, younger Californians expressed far more anxiety and depression than older Californians, even though people in older age groups are far more likely to fall severely ill from the virus.

This completely echoes the Franklin Templeton / Gallup / Dynata survey that was done last month which shows that the levels of anxiety about C19 are hugely disproportional when it comes to age cohort.

My belief is that if this had happened pre-internet, we wouldn't be in the mess we are now.

 

[Brett]

This completely echoes the Franklin Templeton / Gallup / Dynata survey that was done last month which shows that the levels of anxiety about C19 are hugely disproportional when it comes to age cohort.

My belief is that if this had happened pre-internet, we wouldn't be in the mess we are now.

for sure if the pandemic happened pre-internet you wouldn't have so many people working from home and remote learning, etc. and reacting to social media like twitter

if by "mess" you mean people getting sick and dying, that would be the same or more

but if you mean by the big "mess" we wouldn't be in now ......

 

[DannyTS]

BTW did you notice the mental health stats in the article I just posted? 73% of Californians between 18 and 29 said they were "not being able to stop or control worrying." These stats are scary.

The current approach to quarantine the healthy to protect the sick does not make a lot of sense for the younger people so it is very hard for them to feel a sense of unity. Someone who is not at risk, graduated with a boatload of debt, got married and has children that have to be fed and educated may not understand why he has to default on his mortgage to "save" grandma who can actually save herself by staying home for a few months (who will do it anyway). Grandma on the other hand does not even know what is going on. If you read the Franklyn Templeton survey, the death rate of young people is misunderstood by 40 times (people think it is 40 times higher than in reality)! So grandma thinks they are all in this together while the young family cannot see the light at the end of the tunnel and calls it BS.