Hurricane Milton - Another Florida Gulf Coast System inbound

[TUGBrian]

prediction now up to cat 4....

all going to come down to how long that low pressure front will keep it from turning northward and how far east its gotten before it starts to turn.

 

[AnnaS]

I hope everyone is safe.....

 

[LMD]

Getting the storm shutters up here in Naples. Watching and waiting to see if we need to evacuate.

 

[Luanne]

fyi this will impact orlando and the east coast significantly as well!

My bff lives on the east coast on Merritt Island. They are preparing for possible mandatory evacuation due to being a barrier island. Her daughter works at Kennedy Space Center and is keeping track with the NASA database. She said she will probably put up her storm shutters in the next day or two.

My daughter went to Eckerd College in St. Petersburg. They built a few days into their schedule each year in case they had to evacuate for hurricanes. Luckily my daughter never had to do that while she was there. Currently Eckerd has been evacuated and everything is remote learning. They were hoping to get everyone back by the 18th. I wonder if that will be possible.

 

[Sugarcubesea]

prediction now up to cat 4....

View attachment 100420

all going to come down to how long that low pressure front will keep it from turning northward and how far east its gotten before it starts to turn.

Dang, looks like it will hit Naples again...

 

[Sugarcubesea]

Getting the storm shutters up here in Naples. Watching and waiting to see if we need to evacuate.

Stay Safe @LMD, our TS in Naples, just finished clearing all of the sand off our pool decks on both the bay and gulf side last Saturday. I so hope its not as bad as Helene

 

[TUGBrian]

predictions all getting closer now....certainly not looking good for tampa > naples area...someone is going to draw the short end there

 

[Talent312]

I just finished cleaning up my front yard (back is still a mess).
I'm gonna get some camp lanterns. When it rains, it pours.

 

[GTLINZ]

Its already up to 155 MPH winds ...

 

[Superchief]

High tide along the coast is predicted for Thursday morning, so the storm surge should be lower if it hits Wed afternoon rather than Thurs, morning.

 

[TUGBrian]

track bumped back north slightly...all going to come down to when the front in the gulf moves out of the way of the storm and lets it turn northward.

experts/forecasts all expect it to hit cat 5, though all also expect it to drop back down a bit before it hits florida.

 

[TUGBrian]

officially a cat5 now, 160mph winds.

 

[HitchHiker71]

officially a cat5 now, 160mph winds.

Not being from Florida and not at all familiar with hurricanes as a general rule - last year my father moved to Barefoot Bay FL area on the east coast - seems like it's right in the path of the storm - but IDK what to expect given he's on the east coast? Given hurricanes are so large, will those on the east coast also be in danger? I know he's not (yet) in any evacuation zone, but it's his first time dealing with anything like this as well.

 

[dioxide45]

Not being from Florida and not at all familiar with hurricanes as a general rule - last year my father moved to Barefoot Bay FL area on the east coast - seems like it's right in the path of the storm - but IDK what to expect given he's on the east coast? Given hurricanes are so large, will those on the east coast also be in danger? I know he's not (yet) in any evacuation zone, but it's his first time dealing with anything like this as well.

It could have a big impact. There can be storm surge in the east coast. I know during Ian a couple years ago, there were big impacts in the Daytona area even though the storm made landfall on the west coast.

Florida uses evacuation zones. His county should have provided him with some material. Where we live in Duval, we get a booklet every year showing all the evacuations zones. From A to F. They order evacuations based on zones. I understand the lower the zone letter, the bigger chance of flooding or other issues. Also, anyone in a mobile/manufactured home (aka trailer) should evacuate.

This is what the zone map looks like for Duval County (Jacksonville).

Knowing the zone you live in is important. If you don't live in an evacuation zone, then regular storm precautions should still be followed.

1. All plants, furniture and other items from your patio and moved indoors.
2. Stay informed via local news for weather conditions, evacuation routes and nearest shelter locations.
3. Purchase in advance, bottled water; ice and non-perishable items, such as canned food, packaged food, paper and personal products, and manual can opener.
4. Do not leave pets unattended at the property. There are shelters and kennels that will board your pet in case of evacuation.
5. Obtain necessary prescriptions and medications and keep with you in the event of evacuation.
6. Keep flashlights and battery-operated radio/TV handy with extra batteries.
7. Clean and fill bathtub with water.
8. Automatic Teller Machines will not be working in case of power outage. You’ll want to make arrangements for cash needs.
9. In the event of power failure, turn off all appliances and keep refrigerator door closed. (Food will stay cool for 24 hours.)
10. Fill your vehicles gas tank before storm arrives.
11. Avoid downed power lines and report them to your local electric company as soon as possible.
12. Take refuge in a small interior room during the storm.
13. Keep all windows and doors closed through the storm. Do not crack a window or door during the storm. Draw your verticals and drapery materials over the windows to protect from the possibility of shattering glass.
14. Take your automobile and personal property insurance policies with you. Remember that our insurance covers ONLY the building structure and not the contents or personal belongings.

The county may also have an app available or the ability to lookup your evacuation zone based on an address.

 

[TUGBrian]

the arms/bands of the storm will be WAY out in front of it so the entire state is likely to see sporadic nasty wind/rain as it comes through.

i would not expect the east coast to suffer anywhere near as much damage as the west coast simply because there will be far less storm surge as it passes by...but still plenty of flooding and damage for anything right on the coast or any area that floods during heavy rains!

its expected to remain a hurricane across the entire state and then out into the atlantic.

 

[TUGBrian]

looks like barefoot bay is in brevard county, here is a website he (and you) can go to to get the most current info and sign up for alerts:

Get Emergency Alerts From AlertBrevard

AlertBrevard is a primary tool used by Emergency Management to send important information to the public. Sign up here.

www.brevardfl.gov

 

[TUGBrian]

as of yesterday, they are not calling for any evacuations anywhere in brevard:

No evacuations issued for Milton at this time

View recent articles and news happening within Brevard County.

www.brevardfl.gov

 

[Rolltydr]

officially a cat5 now, 160mph winds.

Ok, I’m getting concerned about this one. Usually they can’t maintain that kind of strength very long, but I don’t like them shifting the path to the north. I checked local weather for St. Augustine and it still shows top wind speeds of 30-40mph here and we’re still in that front left quadrant where it isn’t as strong, but if it moves further north, it looks like we could be closer to the center or possibly even in the front right quadrant. I know you’re a little north of me Brian, but what do you think?

 

[ScoopKona]

as of yesterday, they are not calling for any evacuations anywhere in brevard:

If the Florida government had a couple of brain cells to rub together, they would have tier evacuations. And Tier 1 -- all the people with mobility issues -- would already be moving away from coastal areas from Naples to Cedar Key. That way emergency crews aren't moving them when Milton is knocking at the door with a red stapler.

 

[TUGBrian]

we are right on the edge of the "cone of death" at this point...so id say that is about what id expect for us to get here in jax.

they seem to have the nastiest weather on the northeast side as it comes across so those bands are likely to impact us all once they start arriving.

all the forecasts are simply predicting the movement of the two large frontal systems that drive the storm......this next one appears to be dropping down and will push the storm further east as it does....but its all just a guess as to when/where that happens. there is just no way for those kinds of predictions to be accurate down to 50 or 100 miles.

 

[TUGBrian]

If the Florida government had a couple of brain cells to rub together, they would have tier evacuations. And Tier 1 -- all the people with mobility issues -- would already be moving away from coastal areas from Naples to Cedar Key. That way emergency crews aren't moving them when Milton is knocking at the door with a red stapler.

brevard is way south on the east coast.... id imagine most if not all of the west coast has already initiated their first or even second stage evacuation warnings.

 

[Laurie]

Here we go again. Expect hourly updates:

Evacuation Orders

 

[TUGBrian]

two fronts here. the bottom one is currently keeping the storm from moving north...and they predict that to be gone by tuesday (thus the path forecast to shift northeast).

the top one is slowly creeping down and will again push the storm east depending on how far down it goes...but all just a guess as to where the immovable object (front) meets the irresistable force (the storm)

 

[dioxide45]

If the Florida government had a couple of brain cells to rub together, they would have tier evacuations. And Tier 1 -- all the people with mobility issues -- would already be moving away from coastal areas from Naples to Cedar Key. That way emergency crews aren't moving them when Milton is knocking at the door with a red stapler.

They do have tiered evacuations.

 

[moonstone]

13. Keep all windows and doors closed through the storm. Do not crack a window or door during the storm. Draw your verticals and drapery materials over the windows to protect from the possibility of shattering glass.

Our DS had our DiL caulk all the doors except the one to the garage shut. She used the silicone caulking that DS had in the garage and ran a bead along the bottoms and up the sides to about 3 ft on the outside of the main front door, patio sliding doors and the door to the 3pc washroom off the pool deck. They are hoping if the storm surge is high enough (13.5ft) to reach the main floor level of the house that the caulking will stop or at least reduce the amount of water entering. As she left the house through the garage door, she put a heavy sheet of plastic across the door then sandbagged it. That door is 3 steps up from the garage floor.

DiL has been really busy the last few days preparing the house on her own (DS is working in BC) and maybe over did things, but she is satisfied that there will be minimal damage to their things inside. She even had a friend come over and the 2 of them managed to get the sofas, recliners, dining room table, main floor beds and dressers up onto some of the many sturdy totes they used to move their belongings down, so unless there is over 18" of water in the house (more than a 15ft surge) that stuff will stay dry. She also took everything out of the lower kitchen cupboards and closets and put the stuff on the counter or upstairs. All the area rugs are rolled up and moved to the 2nd floor. Our DS's truck is parked at her friends house about 2 miles inland, only their golf cart is left in the garage but its up on ramps a foot or so off the floor. Before he left for the week in Canada our DS installed a cell signal powered trail-cam on the neighbour's flag pole (with permission) so he has a clear view of the garage doors and front door from near the street, in addition to the doorbell cam facing out to the street. He already has a trail-cam facing the pool and back yard and another one down on a pole at the dock pointing at his boat.

We just spoke with DiL, she is at TPA having a well deserved drink before her flight to Nashville leaves. Her car is safely parked in the interior of an upper level of the TPA parking garage in an area protected by 3 walls on the south, east and north sides. With our DS being in the insurance restoration business for 20 years they were taking no chances with anything!


~Diane