Hurricane Milton - Another Florida Gulf Coast System inbound

[TUGBrian]

timing couldnt be worse for those on the gulf coast thats for sure, latest models show this now up to a 70% chance to develop into a storm within the next 7 days

 

[TUGBrian]

sure hope all these initial models are wrong!

 

[TUGBrian]

this mornings tracks now shifting north a bit.... not good news

 

[TUGBrian]

fyi this will impact orlando and the east coast significantly as well!

 

[TUGBrian]

and first official cone from NHC

 

[TheHolleys87]

And now the NHC advisory says possibly "at or near major hurricane strength" before it hits the Florida peninsula.

 

[TUGBrian]

just formed into tropical storm milton a few minutes ago...

 

[moonstone]

And now the NHC advisory says possibly "at or near major hurricane strength" before it hits the Florida peninsula.

It is now projected to hit as possibly a Cat.3 -the Gulf water is so warm. In addition to the national Hurricane Ctr website I have also been following the weather guy Matt Devitt of Wink Weather on Facebook.

Our DS who lives outside of Tampa, at Apollo Beach, is up here in Canada working until next Friday so our DiL is preparing the house as best she can. She is currently carrying everything she can lift that is of any value on the main floor up to the 2nd floor of their house. All the linens from the dining room, 2 guest rooms and bathrooms as well as the contents of the pantry and all small appliances are now in their bedroom on the 2nd floor! She already filled the fridge and upright freezer with pails and jugs of water to freeze to help keep everything cold should they loose power for longer than the 9 hrs that they did last week. She is trying to decide whether to fly up here (Toronto) to stay with us or to Nashville to stay with a friend tomorrow or Monday for a few days or until power is restored. Understandably she doesn't want to stay home alone.


~Diane

 

[Glenn2]

This is incredibly bad news for Pinellas county. Our beaches and waterfront areas are in a state of havoc. The streets are still filled with mountains of household debris from flooded out and gutted out homes and businesses. Those debris piles won't be cleared in time before this next storm arrives.

 

[silentg]

Hoping for the best but preparing for the worst.

 

[TUGBrian]

and now prediction up to cat 4 before landfall on wed, this is incredible.

 

[TUGBrian]

slowed down (probably not good)...no change in track.

there does not appear to be anything in the forecast to significantly change this path so anyone visiting florida next week should keep a close eye on things and have a backup plan for travel!

 

[amycurl]

It’s very scary, and also what has been predicted for many years…an increase in the iintensity and frequency of major hurricanes.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[TUGBrian]

latest gfs model putting it right on top of tampa for landfall on wed.... and staying at hurricane strength all the way thru the state.

cant imagine much will stay open on wed

 

[ScoopKona]

It’s very scary, and also what has been predicted for many years…an increase in the iintensity and frequency of major hurricanes.

A friend at NOAA Key West told me the jig was up 20 years ago. (Hurricane Caterina, Brazil, March 2004). That was his "canary in the coalmine" event. The fact the Gulf was as warm as it usually is in late August, in early July, should have been enough warning.

 

[WorldT]

Most likely Cat 2 at landfall. Double punch

 

[simpsontruckdriver]

One thing about hurricanes (although Climate Change has changed the Gulf of Mexico) is, the last 24 hours before landfall anything can happen. For instance, Hurricane Andrew was predicted to turn slowly to the west, but instead, it took a sharp 90-degree turn to wipe away Homestead FL. Hurricane Charley was predicted to go north and landfall was supposed to be near Tampa, but it took an unexpected turn to the northeast and wiped away Port Charlotte (many died because no one knew it was coming). In the late 1990s, a hurricane was supposed to hit Fort Lauderdale, but at the last minute, it veered NW and we woke up to strong winds here in the Orlando area. Even Hurricane Katrina was supposed to hit New Orleans, but it took an unexpected zig-zag to the east and N.O. primarily got the flooding. Several years ago, a hurricane was set to smash into New Smyrna/Daytona Beach as a Cat-4 (there has never been a Cat-4 in that part of Florida), but at the last minute, it lost all its strength and came ashore as a weak Cat-1. I can't remember the name, but several years ago, a hurricane went towards Houston. Unexpectedly, it stopped over the city, causing immense flooding as it rained for days on end. many may remember the Joel Osteen controversy when he praised the city but would not open the church doors to the residents who needed shelter. And last week, I don't think meteorologists could have predicted Hurricane Helene would merge with a storm system over GA, Eastern TN, and Western NC and cause floods deeper than ever recorded!

We can only hope/pray the storm either takes a course to the south over the Everglades, stalls, or weakens before it hits the state.

TS

 

[ScoopKona]

We can only hope/pray the storm either takes a course to the south over the Everglades, stalls, or weakens before it hits the state.

Which is bad news for Naples, Marco Island, and the Keys...

The problem is that increasingly, there is no "best case scenario." While I don't want anything to happen to my home town (or anyone else's home town), I'm very glad I no longer live there.

 

[TUGBrian]

latest track has a slight bump south (good for me, bad for south west fla)

also a slight increase in predicted winds up to 125mph, though thankfully it seems to be staying small for now!

 

[WorldT]

Make that a Cat 3

Most likely Cat 2 at landfall. Double punch

 

[rickandcindy23]

Oh no. We start our drive to Orlando on Tuesday. Who will arrive first, Milton or us?

 

[ScoopKona]

Make that a Cat 3

At this point, that's the optimistic prediction.

 

[moonstone]

Oh no. We start our drive to Orlando on Tuesday. Who will arrive first, Milton or us?

Unless you are going to drive straight through then Milton will beat you there. It may be bad in Orlando on Wednesday and possibly Thursday. And who knows if the power will go or be out. Weather forecast for Orlando is rain starting tomorrow through to Thursday and finally a partly sunny day on Friday. I offered a Last Call at VV@Pkwy to our DiL (escaping Apollo Beach south east of Tampa) with a check-in today but she has decided to fly to friends in Nashville early tomorrow morning and wait it out up there.


~Diane

 

[TUGBrian]

Oh no. We start our drive to Orlando on Tuesday. Who will arrive first, Milton or us?

how long is the drive?

 

[Laurie]

Fort Myers Beach issues mandatory evacuation for entire Island

The Hurricane Re-entry Pass Program will be implemented following Hurricane Milton. Sandbags and Hurricane Re-entry passes will still be available tomorrow, October 7, 2024, for final preparations.

www.fox4now.com