Hurricane Milton - Another Florida Gulf Coast System inbound

[TheHolleys87]

I just talked to a friend of mine who just moved to Spring Hill just north of Tampa a few months ago. They had rented a place to evacuate to but just got a call and it was canceled. They decided to stay and ride it out. I pray all goes well.

Prayers for them from me too! I hope they change their minds and leave tomorrow. I don’t just have Katrina memories, I have memories of Ike in the Houston area in 2008, where the storm surge on the coast was 10-12 feet. There were people who stayed put, called for help when it was too late, and were washed away. If authorities are telling your friend to leave, they really, really, really need to go.

 

[TUGBrian]

even at midnight traffic shows epic congestion on 75 going north from tampa

 

[slip]

Prayers for them from me too! I hope they change their minds and leave tomorrow. I don’t just have Katrina memories, I have memories of Ike in the Houston area in 2008, where the storm surge on the coast was 10-12 feet. There were people who stayed put, called for help when it was too late, and were washed away. If authorities are telling your friend to leave, they really, really, really need to go.

They are about 5 miles east of the mandatory evacuation area. We'll see if they change their minds as it gets closer.

 

[GTLINZ]

are no expectations for it to maintain that kind of power by the time it gets to land.

I hope you are right. Sustained winds are down to 145 which is still very high.

HURRICANE MILTON

 

[TUGBrian]

oh i doubt anyone in the path is going to feel a difference betwee 150mph winds vs 175mph winds.... both are pretty catastrophic.

just hope it continues to weaken a bit more before landfall. thankfully the hurricane force winds still only exist up to 30 miles from the center so I hope that continues as well.

has started to turn northeast this morning....path still could be off by 50-75 miles over the next 36 hours or so

 

[TUGBrian]

2pm (et) update

 

[HitchHiker71]

latest storm surge forecast....if that holds true....i cant even imagine.


View attachment 100454

Wow up to 15 feet of storm surge for TB area? Helene was not even half of that and 100 miles away as opposed to a direct hit. This is going to be a once in a lifetime hurricane for central Florida from the looks of what you are sharing. It seems Milton is restrengthening and may move back up to a CAT5 from what I just heard?


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[TUGBrian]

Wow up to 15 feet of storm surge for TB area? Helene was not even half of that and 100 miles away as opposed to a direct hit. This is going to be a once in a lifetime hurricane for central Florida from the looks of what you are sharing. It seems Milton is restrengthening and may move back up to a CAT5 from what I just heard?


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its weakened a bit but stayed very small.

i think latest estimates are showing hte pressure will drop a good bit more before landfall. cat 2-3 area.

the surge however will still be historic.

 

[bnoble]

This is going to be a once in a lifetime hurricane for central Florida

Until the next one---which might not be all that far in the future. Warmer water -> Much more energy can be imparted to a storm.

 

[TUGBrian]

18z initiated predictions out now....looks like an bump back south (just a hair south of tampa bay itself)

still appears +/- 30 or so miles from tampa taking it dead on though. even a few miles south of the bay would be a HUGE break for tampa itself likely cutting those surge estimate figures in half.


obviously that is terrible news for clearwater, venice, etc.

 

[TUGBrian]

guessing all these models are now reflecting the cold front that shifted much further south than expected yesterday!

 

[moonstone]

We received an email from our timeshare at St. Augustine Beach a few hours ago saying they were closing this evening as soon as all the guests are out as St. John's county has issued a mandatory evacuation for all of Anastasia Island and all of St. Augustine. They said staff will be at the resort until 9 am tomorrow to make sure everything is fastened down, all windows covered and other preparations. They are looking at a Friday re-open if there is power and water. The Beach Club is a Sunday to Sunday (weeks) resort so hopefully some folks can salvage some of their vacation.

~Diane

 

[easyrider]

fyi this will impact orlando and the east coast significantly as well!

Are you in the path ?

Bill

 

[rapmarks]

We received an email from our timeshare at St. Augustine Beach a few hours ago saying they were closing this evening as soon as all the guests are out as St. John's county has issued a mandatory evacuation for all of Anastasia Island and all of St. Augustine. They said staff will be at the resort until 9 am tomorrow to make sure everything is fastened down, all windows covered and other preparations. They are looking at a Friday re-open if there is power and water. The Beach Club is a Sunday to Sunday (weeks) resort so hopefully some folks can salvage some of their vacation.

~Diane

Where do all those people go?

 

[moonstone]

Where do all those people go?

There are shelters set up inland at schools, community centers and churches and many folk are heading to hotels/motels inland and north. The traffic on I-95 northbound was packed and doing about 40mph starting early this morning. I don't imagine it has improved. I-75 out of Tampa was plugged starting on Sunday. Our DiL took US 41 up to the airport as she was afraid of getting stuck in traffic on I-75 and missing her flight out.

~Diane

 

[dioxide45]

Where do all those people go?

The important thing is to get out of an evacuation zone. It doesn't necessarily mean going very far. Though some people who are traveling might just have gone home. To wherever that is. Many other head to a hotel, it doesn't need to necessarily be very far. Even just a few miles inland can make a big difference. It can mean the difference between being underwater or not.

 

[Rolltydr]

There are shelters set up inland at schools, community centers and churches and many folk are heading to hotels/motels inland and north. The traffic on I-95 northbound was packed and doing about 40mph starting early this morning. I don't imagine it has improved. I-75 out of Tampa was plugged starting on Sunday. Our DiL took US 41 up to the airport as she was afraid of getting stuck in traffic on I-75 and missing her flight out.

~Diane

I got a glimpse of I95 around noon and it was still exactly as you described. Traffic on the interior roads around World Golf Village was extremely heavy with local traffic, as well as, drivers trying to escape the slow interstate. It wasn’t working.

 

[TUGBrian]

Are you in the path ?

Bill

no im in jax, we are well out of the cone of death at this point.

 

[Cornell]

It could have a big impact. There can be storm surge in the east coast. I know during Ian a couple years ago, there were big impacts in the Daytona area even though the storm made landfall on the west coast.

Florida uses evacuation zones. His county should have provided him with some material. Where we live in Duval, we get a booklet every year showing all the evacuations zones. From A to F. They order evacuations based on zones. I understand the lower the zone letter, the bigger chance of flooding or other issues. Also, anyone in a mobile/manufactured home (aka trailer) should evacuate.

This is what the zone map looks like for Duval County (Jacksonville).

View attachment 100448

Knowing the zone you live in is important. If you don't live in an evacuation zone, then regular storm precautions should still be followed.

1. All plants, furniture and other items from your patio and moved indoors.
2. Stay informed via local news for weather conditions, evacuation routes and nearest shelter locations.
3. Purchase in advance, bottled water; ice and non-perishable items, such as canned food, packaged food, paper and personal products, and manual can opener.
4. Do not leave pets unattended at the property. There are shelters and kennels that will board your pet in case of evacuation.
5. Obtain necessary prescriptions and medications and keep with you in the event of evacuation.
6. Keep flashlights and battery-operated radio/TV handy with extra batteries.
7. Clean and fill bathtub with water.
8. Automatic Teller Machines will not be working in case of power outage. You’ll want to make arrangements for cash needs.
9. In the event of power failure, turn off all appliances and keep refrigerator door closed. (Food will stay cool for 24 hours.)
10. Fill your vehicles gas tank before storm arrives.
11. Avoid downed power lines and report them to your local electric company as soon as possible.
12. Take refuge in a small interior room during the storm.
13. Keep all windows and doors closed through the storm. Do not crack a window or door during the storm. Draw your verticals and drapery materials over the windows to protect from the possibility of shattering glass.
14. Take your automobile and personal property insurance policies with you. Remember that our insurance covers ONLY the building structure and not the contents or personal belongings.

The county may also have an app available or the ability to lookup your evacuation zone based on an address.

My own daughter goes to college in Daytona Beach . School closed Tues-Friday. Students asked to leave. I was surprised given this is hitting the west side of the state.

 

[TUGBrian]

My own daughter goes to college in Daytona Beach . School closed Tues-Friday. Students asked to leave. I was surprised given this is hitting the west side of the state.

its going to remain a hurricane across the entire state...even after it passes into the atlantic.

 

[JudyH]

We live right below Sarasota but along I 75. I am not worried about storm surge but I am worried about the Myakka River flooding. It is about 3 miles from my house. And we have a large pond in back of the house that is already near capacity. The ground is already saturated from previous rains. We shuttered up the house and drove north for two days and now we will wait and see.

 

[Panina]

Where do all those people go?

I am at a hotel now due to a renovation of my house. Two days ago the hotel was a ghost town. Vacationers left or canceled. Today the hotel is totally book with people who evacuated the west cost. The hotel I am staying at is on the East coast, right now out of the cone, not far from the ocean.

 

[TUGBrian]

saw it hasnt sped up as expected and now landfall pushed back till thursday morning. hope this gives folks in the path more time to prepare, or get elsewhere!

 

[TUGBrian]

I am at a hotel now due to a renovation of my house. Two days ago the hotel was a ghost town. Vacationers left or canceled. Today the hotel is totally book with people who evacuated the west cost. The hotel I am staying at is on the East coast, right now out of the cone, not far from the ocean.

just looked for a hotel anywhere in jax and did not locate a single room.

 

[rapmarks]

The important thing is to get out of an evacuation zone. It doesn't necessarily mean going very far. Though some people who are traveling might just have gone home. To wherever that is. Many other head to a hotel, it doesn't need to necessarily be very far. Even just a few miles inland can make a big difference. It can mean the difference between being underwater or not.

They want us to evacuate our neighborhood and we can go to the shelter across the street. Well how safe is that! It is not further inland, just south.
One if the women started a roll call of who is staying. I know these people and many are in their nineties. I am really worried about them.