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Coronavirus Cases Are Accelerating Across U.S.

CO skier

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We have to face it.
Which is what Sweden's epidemiologist and politicians realized from the beginning, and US politicians still do not understand.

The US public policy is still focused on "containment" which ain't going to happen in a country of 325 million people -- quarantines and shutdowns are stop-gap measures and completely unsustainable.
 
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TravelTime

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It will be interesting to see where the numbers go in the next 2-3 weeks, but LA has been doing well on the daily fatality rate, but there is a recent spike. Yes, positive tests are increasing as testing ramps up to all time highs, but deaths not remotely following along.
View attachment 22695
Yes, this is what I have been wondering. Are we also having a spike in death rates across the country?
 

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I was reading some funny ways to encourage mask usage. One was for a young child to shame the non-mask wearers. They could say in a loud voice something like “Why aren’t they wearing a mask? Do they want to kill me?” Another suggestion was to cough loudly when someone comes closer than within 6’ of distance from you. These were all suggested in jest but they are some great ideas! :whooopie:
 

pedro47

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jme, your post is not good for the American population. Is this the Rise and Fall of the United States?
 

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Which is what Sweden's epidemiologist and politicians realized from the beginning, and US politicians still do not understand.

The US public policy is still focused on "containment" which ain't going to happen in a country of 325 million people -- quarantines and shutdowns are stop-gap measures and completely unsustainable.
Yet Sweden has in fact encouraged social distancing and stay at home. They also are a country that trusts and listens to their government instead of taking pride in resisting it. They are no wheres near herd immunity at this point and their numbers are not good with an overall death rate among the worst in Europe along with a current death rate right at the top. Of course the comparison for sweden would be their neighbors that are orders of magnitude better at this point. Imagine those graphs of deaths per 100,000 you posted in post 140 and what they would look like.

How do you explain the EU with a population of446 million. Their containment efforts have gone well. They are reopened to the point of beyond where we are with no big rise in cases. I agree that containment with quarantines and shutdowns are not in and of themselves a solution. It is what happens after that. In Europe they are actual listening to the scientists and getting the cases down to a point where they can deal with them through testing and isolation. In Europe they find a hot spot test and quarantine those that are exposed. The population happily complies for a variety of cultural and social reasons. In the US we still have governors in denial while cases have increased 5 to 10 fold in a few weeks. The science shows that wearing a mask contains the virus by as much as 80% (96% with an N95) but in America masks have become political statements. Below is a good article on mask wearing that gives links to studies. In particular there is a link to a Lancet meta data analysis of transmission reduction.

While your conclusion I fear is correct I have a very different take on the cause. While the shutdowns and SAH orders may very possibly have been useless IMHO it is the actions we took after that caused that. Our actions today will define the future of our numbers.

Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing…after they have exhausted all other possibilities.
Attributed to Winston Churchill but may have come from an unknown Irishman

 

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Yet Sweden has in fact encouraged social distancing and stay at home. They also are a country that trusts and listens to their government instead of taking pride in resisting it. They are no wheres near herd immunity at this point and their numbers are not good with an overall death rate among the worst in Europe along with a current death rate right at the top. Of course the comparison for sweden would be their neighbors that are orders of magnitude better at this point. Imagine those graphs of deaths per 100,000 you posted in post 140 and what they would look like.

How do you explain the EU with a population of446 million. Their containment efforts have gone well. They are reopened to the point of beyond where we are with no big rise in cases. I agree that containment with quarantines and shutdowns are not in and of themselves a solution. It is what happens after that. In Europe they are actual listening to the scientists and getting the cases down to a point where they can deal with them through testing and isolation. In Europe they find a hot spot test and quarantine those that are exposed. The population happily complies for a variety of cultural and social reasons. In the US we still have governors in denial while cases have increased 5 to 10 fold in a few weeks. The science shows that wearing a mask contains the virus by as much as 80% (96% with an N95) but in America masks have become political statements. Below is a good article on mask wearing that gives links to studies. In particular there is a link to a Lancet meta data analysis of transmission reduction.

While your conclusion I fear is correct I have a very different take on the cause. While the shutdowns and SAH orders may very possibly have been useless IMHO it is the actions we took after that caused that. Our actions today will define the future of our numbers.

Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing…after they have exhausted all other possibilities.
Attributed to Winston Churchill but may have come from an unknown Irishman


Best science, research, and experience-based article I've read to date. It blows a lot of people's "beliefs" out of the water.
It's what some of us always knew, and the author addresses it in a wonderful and comprehensive way.
 

DannyTS

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Yet Sweden has in fact encouraged social distancing and stay at home. They also are a country that trusts and listens to their government instead of taking pride in resisting it. They are no wheres near herd immunity at this point and their numbers are not good with an overall death rate among the worst in Europe along with a current death rate right at the top. Of course the comparison for sweden would be their neighbors that are orders of magnitude better at this point. Imagine those graphs of deaths per 100,000 you posted in post 140 and what they would look like.

I am not sure I agree with the premise that Sweden is doing poorly. Just look at this graph, the number of serious cases has been going down. The naysayers are always comparing to their neighbors forgetting that Sweden had an early spring break (mid February) and brought a lot of cases from Europe. Their neighbors had the spring breaks mid-March when travel restrictions were already in place so nobody traveled abroad. If you look at the number of cases in Sweden in March-April (most likely due to the travel in February) you will see I am right, Sweden started from a much higher base line.


1593526698315.png

Swedish Covid Expert Says the World Still Doesn’t Understand


 
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There is a Facebook group for “long haulers”. We are months in And still experiencing symptoms. Days of shortness of breath and others fine. Last week was a bad week, this week better. Tested negative for COVID yesterday (needed for Bahamas trip). I still wear a mask
I am so sorry. I had indeed heard that being over it is not being over it. I hope vestiges continue to fall away.
 

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I continue to wonder about mutations. Are you better off getting west coast variety or east coast variety? Is there now a midwest variety?

I am not sure that comparing country to country works without identifying which strain, and I'm not sure that info is going to be readily available any time soon. I end up thinking, if I get it, will I get the mild or disastrous case? Could it be that a 30 year old getting it in NM fares differently than had they got it in ME? If so, do we know if the Brazil or Sweden strains are same as here? If we know there are 2 different strains from how East vs West emerged here, will we also be dealing with the person that visited both coasts and middle America and came out with a 3rd strain??

The mutation aspect fascinates me, yet I am far from a scientist, and simply waiting and watching for info on this. But because of different strains, I'm not sure that state by state comparisons are reasonable, either. Could be one state has a deadlier strain in circulation while another has the mild strain.
 

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I'm so upset about the debate over masks. Virtually all scientists/medical professionals say universal masks/face covering will substantially curb transmission. It's likely the ONLY way to slow Covid down--as it's not "going away" this summer like a typical flu cycle. I'm glad our Gov is a Dr. VA requires masks. Colleges require masks in the fall.
Where are the massive public service announcements--like we had in March about washing hands, etc.
 

pedro47

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It's all starts at the Top with good leader ship. IMHO.
Yet Sweden has in fact encouraged social distancing and stay at home. They also are a country that trusts and listens to their government instead of taking pride in resisting it. They are no wheres near herd immunity at this point and their numbers are not good with an overall death rate among the worst in Europe along with a current death rate right at the top. Of course the comparison for sweden would be their neighbors that are orders of magnitude better at this point. Imagine those graphs of deaths per 100,000 you posted in post 140 and what they would look like.

How do you explain the EU with a population of446 million. Their containment efforts have gone well. They are reopened to the point of beyond where we are with no big rise in cases. I agree that containment with quarantines and shutdowns are not in and of themselves a solution. It is what happens after that. In Europe they are actual listening to the scientists and getting the cases down to a point where they can deal with them through testing and isolation. In Europe they find a hot spot test and quarantine those that are exposed. The population happily complies for a variety of cultural and social reasons. In the US we still have governors in denial while cases have increased 5 to 10 fold in a few weeks. The science shows that wearing a mask contains the virus by as much as 80% (96% with an N95) but in America masks have become political statements. Below is a good article on mask wearing that gives links to studies. In particular there is a link to a Lancet meta data analysis of transmission reduction.

While your conclusion I fear is correct I have a very different take on the cause. While the shutdowns and SAH orders may very possibly have been useless IMHO it is the actions we took after that caused that. Our actions today will define the future of our numbers.

Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing…after they have exhausted all other possibilities.
Attributed to Winston Churchill but may have come from an unknown Irishman

 

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Luanne

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Cornell

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@cman Yesterday had the lowest cases of deaths in the US since the peak in April. Death cases are often lower on Monday b/c of weekend-reporting issues, but nonetheless, it further illustrates your point.
 
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CPNY

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I think we can all agree on one thing. Be careful and staying safe is important.
No. There should have been a federal policy.
thats like saying there should have been a European policy. Each state is different. NY should have acted faster and more efficiently.
 

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Death rates for the US are going down since April.

View attachment 22720
Very happy about that, but lest anyone say, "Wow Let's party!".....

Death is certainly the worst outcome for those infected, but there are other significant consequences to consider.
Full recoveries are not always the case, in fact the %'s of incomplete recoveries are rising as more people recover.
This applies to both older people and younger people. I am not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but the mindset that all is going well
is naive, especially when the infection rate is increasing on a large scale. Few "flu's" have ever had such dire consequences.
Not to mention the strains are mutating and we are yet to understand the ramifications of that.

This is a highly troubling fact:
Half of 'cured' patients still suffer...

What the Covid19 virus does to lungs is quite brutal (old & young), and other organs can also be affected, even the heart.

Has this article below already fallen on deaf ears since it was posted this morning?......
We are nowhere near the end of this pandemic. Many hoped and expected it to be over by now, but it's not,
so we must be diligent to do what is required to reach that end.

 

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Very happy about that, but lest anyone say, "Wow Let's party!".....

Death is certainly the worst outcome for those infected, but there are other significant consequences to consider.
Full recoveries are not always the case, in fact the %'s of incomplete recoveries are rising as more people recover.
This applies to both older people and younger people. I am not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but the mindset that all is going well
is naive, especially when the infection rate is increasing on a large scale. Few "flu's" have ever had such dire consequences.
Not to mention the strains are mutating and we are yet to understand the ramifications of that.

This is a highly troubling fact:
Half of 'cured' patients still suffer...

What the Covid19 virus does to lungs is quite brutal (old & young), and other organs can also be affected, even the heart.

Has this article below already fallen on deaf ears since it was posted this morning?......
We are nowhere near the end of this pandemic. Many hoped and expected it to be over by now, but it's not,
so we must be diligent to do what is required to reach that end.

I agree. Also factor in the fact that deaths lag infections by a few weeks. We won't see the result of the current rise in infections until the middle of July.

It's just curious to me as to why when the infection rate is soaring, deaths in even the hardest hit states are either decreasing or remain flat. Could it be that the newly infected are younger? Are doctors better able to treat it?
 

Luanne

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I think we can all agree on one thing. Be careful and staying safe is important.

thats like saying there should have been a European policy. Each state is different. NY should have acted faster and more efficiently.
I stand by my statement.
 

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I agree. Also factor in the fact that deaths lag infections by a few weeks. We won't see the result of the current rise in infections until the middle of July.

It's just curious to me as to why the infection rate is soaring, deaths in even the hardest hit states are either decreasing or remain flat. Could it be that the newly infected are younger? Are doctors better able to treat it?
The median age of those infected has dropped a lot. I believe in FL it is now 35 (don't quote me on that exact figure).
 
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