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Coronavirus Cases Are Accelerating Across U.S.

Conan

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How are the cities of Miami and Orlando doing in the Covid -19 case count?
They fired the statistician who wanted to track those numbers, but she's been maintaining her website as a private person.
You go to County, then Local Data, and then you can look up current cases by zip code or city.
That gives you the current case numbers--Miami 16,925 cases; Orlando 5,110 cases.

She has graphs of new cases by Case Date on the Reopening Criteria tab, which also tells you whether the area you're looking at meets the criteria for reopening that the Florida Department of Health announced in June and later deleted.
 

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You have left out "life experience". I would stack my knowledge of Micro/Molecular biology against the majority of those 2,000 WSJ reporters. (I have a degree in the subject (including epidemiology, virology, various biochemistry studies, pathological micro, microbial genetics, ect.))

Furthermore, I was born and raised in South Texas. I had a first hand seat at the cross border healthcare flows during the 1982 and 1994 peso collapses. Plus I had colleagues who lived in the Rio Grande valley and one has retired there. Going across the border (both ways) for just about anything, as day trips, is a common practice.
Finally, consider the following. Why did New York City get hit so hard initially? Could it be that the early stage hotspots in Europe, were flying into NYC? After all, NYC is a the most common arrival point into the US from Europe, is it not? Of course, if that was the case, how did the virus become so prevalent in the early European hotspots? (I leave that research as an exercise for the student.)

Does this mean I am parroting some "celebrity hollywood :censored: lawyer" or that I had already come to the same conclusion independently, based on my early training and life experience?
probably

but maybe those 2,000 Wall Street Journal reporters have more "life experience" than you !
or maybe it's ...... objectivity ? o_O


tex1.jpg
 
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LMD

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The case numbers in Florida are really shocking.
Lee County's case count is up 37% in 7 days.
Collier County's case count is up 26% in 7 days.

Even loan sharks don't charge more than 10 to 20 percent a week.
I live in Collier County. It's scary. We are doing a staycation at the Surf Club on Marco check in tomorrow and I am quite nervous about it. Plan on going down, checking in, cleaning like hell, going home for the night and returning on Sunday to stay the week. Hope I am not making a bad decision.
 

TravelTime

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Lockdowns do not stop you from going to the grocery store, talking or going to neighbors homes, family gatherings, etc.
They cannot police everyone. In fact it is mostly voluntary. If it is like my neighborhood, many not wearing masks in stores, neighbors talking to each other within inches with no masks, parties going on in neighbors homes as well as family gatherings, etc.. This happened during lockdown and is even worse now.
When we were having strict lockdowns during SIP/SAH, it did work. Everyone was staying home and only going out for essential services. Now that states are lifting the shut downs, it is no longer working. I think the SIP/SAH artificially made it seem like Covid was under control. It was a false sense of safety. Things seem to be worse now than before. Personally, I am living like we are still in SIP.

When I read the news or read TUG or watch CNN, I feel like we are in the worst right now. The only new things we are doing is we are taking the dogs to the vet tomorrow (This is an essential service and they still do not allow customers in the vet office), and getting them groomed on Sunday. I am getting a haircut in mid July (my hairdresser is wearing a mask and so will I). I have some friends visiting on July 4th weekend but we are all staying at home (they have been wearing masks and socially distancing). I guess that is a lot more than before. Other than that, my DH and I are mainly staying home and wearing masks when we go out for essential services.

The good news is that the employees at our little market are finally wearing masks and all the customers are too. During the SIP, the employees were not wearing masks. That was probably the riskiest place we went.
 

TravelTime

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My CCRC in Fort Worth, TX which had just started to carefully open up has reverted back to "Lockdown" Status this time with masks mandatory. I'm not sure anymore if I will live to see this end...

The good news is that none of our 400+ residents have been infected with the virus...

George
Your statement above is sad. I hope you live to see the end of this. I enjoy your comments on TUG.
 

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Will US politicians ever understand that the US is on the same Covid-19 path as every other country? It will be worse or better than any given country. The Economic Shutdown of 2020 just got us back to near Square One last March-April. Now they (and we) are faced with the same decisions -- shutdown, again, or continue the shutdown (Hawaii) which is a one way street with no path to re-opening until there is a vaccine -- or accept the undeniable and inevitable and re-open society, with appropriate precautions, and accept the undeniable and unavoidable consequences like Sweden did from the beginning.
 

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Will US politicians ever understand that the US is on the same Covid-19 path as every other country? It will be worse or better than any given country. The Economic Shutdown of 2020 just got us back to near Square One last March-April. Now they (and we) are faced with the same decisions -- shutdown, again, or continue the shutdown (Hawaii) which is a one way street with no path to re-opening until there is a vaccine -- or accept the undeniable and inevitable and re-open society, with appropriate precautions, and accept the undeniable and unavoidable consequences like Sweden did from the beginning.
Back to square one in terms of the number of new cases... but many are a lot poorer and depressed
 

CO skier

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Back to square one in terms of the number of new cases... but many are a lot poorer and depressed
Too true. The Economic Shutdown had predictable effects on mental health, financial health, suicides, but that mostly gets swept under the carpet because it is not measured in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths related to Covid-19. There are no graphs for these quite significant secondary and tragic effects of poor, but politically expedient public policy.
 

PigsDad

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I thought this was an interesting and well-written article on how the spikes we are now seeing in the Southern and Western states differ from the earlier spikes in the Northeast. Spoiler alert: more prevalent among the younger generation (which is no surprise).


Kurt
 

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From post #127, "... a government estimate showed that more than 20 million people in the U.S. might have contracted the virus ..."

In a country of 325 million people, that leaves 94% of the population vulnerable to the virus, even after the Economic Shutdown of 2020 that was supposed to be the "answer." Was it worth the cost in lives and livelihoods?

Second Wave? not hardly. After all the shutdowns and political theatre, we are barely beginning the First Wave. The health advisors to the President and governors must know this. It is waaaay past time that they stop promoting the computer models that deny the inevitable, "get real" with our political leaders, and admit that continued shutdowns is not a practical "solution."
 

bluehende

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\

In a country of 325 million people, that leaves 94% of the population vulnerable to the virus, even after the Economic Shutdown of 2020 that was supposed to be the "answer." Was it worth the cost in lives and livelihoods?

\
Without the shutdown we would have had more deaths probably an order of magnitude more deaths. Our hospitals which were using convention centers to house patients would have been crushed. With that going on how much economic activity would have been destroyed. Imagine the fear under those conditions. This economy was headed for problems no matter what we did. How many people would be out and about knowing a respiratory virus is circulating and the hospital has no room for you. Europe which has also opened up has had 4000 cases today instead of the us which had 47000 cases. We need to be more like europe. We have to face it. The world has changed. Hopefully it will be short lived with a great therapeutic or a vaccine. Until then the world will have to learn how to deal with balancing economic activity vs lives lost, but believing that doing nothing would have left the economy humming along is just denial.
 

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Without the shutdown we would have had more deaths probably an order of magnitude more deaths. Our hospitals which were using convention centers to house patients would have been crushed. With that going on how much economic activity would have been destroyed. Imagine the fear under those conditions. This economy was headed for problems no matter what we did. How many people would be out and about knowing a respiratory virus is circulating and the hospital has no room for you. Europe which has also opened up has had 4000 cases today instead of the us which had 47000 cases. We need to be more like europe. We have to face it. The world has changed. Hopefully it will be short lived with a great therapeutic or a vaccine. Until then the world will have to learn how to deal with balancing economic activity vs lives lost, but believing that doing nothing would have left the economy humming along is just denial.
yes

The Wall Street Journal interviewed COVID 19 victims in Arizona and Texas this week. All attended nightclubs and bars

WSJ June 27, 2020

ariz.jpg
 

Conan

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I can’t vouch personally for the accuracy of this graph, but if true...
44DA755B-0F3A-4F4C-AC46-DF979363085B.jpeg
 

bbodb1

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My CCRC in Fort Worth, TX which had just started to carefully open up has reverted back to "Lockdown" Status this time with masks mandatory. I'm not sure anymore if I will live to see this end...

The good news is that none of our 400+ residents have been infected with the virus...

George
George,

As much as anyone can be remotely, many here are here for you. Hang in there, sir - and reach out to TUG to keep your spirits up.
Picture yourself here.....
GOPR0192.jpeg
 

DrQ

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The COVID related death rates and hospitalization rates are the key tracking figures.

The infection rate is useless because:
  • It is taking too long to get results
  • Only a small percentage of the population is being tested
  • There is no effective contact tracing done as the result of a positive test
When the hospitals become choked with C-19 patients, it amplifies the deaths due to the causes.

Or we could adopt the motto, "Work makes you free" and keep on marching.
 

Conan

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The COVID related death rates and hospitalization rates are the key tracking figures.
No doubt, but in a number of States hospitalization rates, ICU admissions, and even death rates are being suppressed.
In Florida, for example:

Warning about ER, In-patient admissions and death information related to cases
"There is no active count of COVID-19 positive persons admitted to a hospital ER or as an in-patient in the state of Florida.

Therefore, any statement regarding the current trend in ER and hospital admissions (and deaths-more on that below) are entirenly non-evidence based.

The Florida Department of Health (DOH) has never provided data about the number of people currently hospitalized or in the emergency room who are COVID-19 positive. They do not provide dates for when COVID-19 persons were admitted to or discharged from the ER or as in-patients to a hospital.

The only hospital surveillance data available to the public is the AHCA current bed availability data (see note about that data to the left) and the Florida Metrics data published by DOH every Sunday, which counts the total number of legal Florida residents who visited an ER in the state of Florida with symptoms matching the key terms of influenza and COVID-19 (reported by week).

Additionally, DOH does not provide the date of death for any case. The chart on the now-disabled DOH dshboard showing resident deaths by date is just that - residents only by date of death for cases where a death certificate has been received and the date of death verified by the state.

The CDC warns "delays in reporting a person's death to the state can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death."

According to internal DOH records, deaths reported by DOH were reported an average 7-21 days after the COVID-19 positive person died (date from March through mid-June_, with some deaths reported as late as 44 days after death."

Source: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/7572b118dc3c48d885d1c643c195314e/ ["Notes and Warnings" tab]
 

Ken555

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No doubt, but in a number of States hospitalization rates, ICU admissions, and even death rates are being suppressed.
This is the problem predicted some time ago and which is now becoming true. We simply are not being provided the info needed to make informed decisions by the government and local hospitals. I know this is occurring in Florida and Texas (it has been widely reported in the last ~24 hours that Texas had stopped updating ICU utilization once it hit 100% on Thursday; https://apple.news/AL66K9GuUS8uMYj_98E9d9w). Which other states have stopped reporting?

If we don’t have transparent and accurate information, then we can only rely upon third party numbers which are naturally somewhat suspect. Even so, the anecdotal reports from medical professionals in the field are clear: the virus is spreading, people are sick, hospitals throughout the country are experiencing higher utilization, and the situation may get out of control.

We must ask the hard questions...why is this information not being publicly published? Why hide it? Who benefits?

Note that in every other country (that I am aware of) the response to the virus is not political. Please let’s do our best not to force the moderators to close this thread.

For those of you in Florida and Texas, please be extra careful (in all things, not just avoiding the virus). You don’t want to go to hospital unless absolutely necessary.


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....Economic Shutdown of 2020 that was supposed to be the "answer."

No, the shutdown was the option of last resort. Nobody said it would stop the virus, because the virus was, is, and will be, unstoppable. For now. The "answers" are a combination of effective vaccine(s) and herd immunity. Around the world.
 

CO skier

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The infection rate is useless
True. But the numbers are large, which makes the measure more sensational. That would explain why the mainstream news outlets are so focused on case count instead of a more representative measure. There is no perfect measure, but death rate is much more representative than new reported cases, for the reasons you point out.
 

Ralph Sir Edward

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All I can do, and am doing, is to "fort up" - minimizing human contact, (Groceries at non-peak periods, respirator (full HEPA filtration) and gloves, let the car "bake in the sun" after grocery loads); and read all the research I can, and because of it, take the "witches brew" of OTC items and Vitamins (which I describes a few weeks ago in another post).

And I don't travel. . .
 

CPNY

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Of the protests I've seen many of those participating have been wearing masks. Much more so than at the recent political rallies.
It’s debatable on whether masks work truthfully. Not a polical post or anything but a sleeve or handkerchief does not work. Neither does a surgical mask. Unless it’s a respirator mask, it’s not that effective. As fauci said, “if it makes you feel better. Sure wear a mask”

with that being said, I wear a mask, wore a mask WELL before it was mandated and will continue to wear a mask in public places.
 

DavidnRobin

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It’s debatable on whether masks work truthfully. Not a polical post or anything but a sleeve or handkerchief does not work. Neither does a surgical mask. Unless it’s a respirator mask, it’s not that effective. As fauci said, “if it makes you feel better. Sure wear a mask”

with that being said, I wear a mask, wore a mask WELL before it was mandated and will continue to wear a mask in public places.
Incorrect. Mask are proven to work to prevent SARS-COV-2 from being transmitted via air droplets. This is the most common means of transmission. (Fomite is secondary by far - Fomite => surface contaminated by viral particles)
I do agree that many people are wearing masks that are insufficient.
A person should not be able to blow out a flame (e.g. match) through their mask. But to state that it is not proven that masks work, or a respirator mask is needed, is blatantly false (and sounds quite political tbh).


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