[Closed - new thread started] Will Hawaii Open by [OCTOBER???] [Please use this thread for all Hawaii Coronavirus discussions]

[cman]

Yes. But they should have capped UI benefits at about 90% of their wages. Or even 95%. Not a profit.

They could have. But in Hawaii's case it would not have made a difference. If they capped it a 95%, the payment would be about $400/wk. They couldn't go to work anyway, so you'd just end up with a bunch of hungry kids and angry parents. I look it as these are the people that clean my room, serve me my food, and ensure I have a good time. They don't get paid much, we know that. So, if they finally get to catch a break, good for them.

 

[Tamaradarann]

You’re making the assumption that children have enough food at home, and that’s incorrect.

Many schools provide meals to children that don’t receive enough food at home. I’m not sure of the numbers in Hawaii, but this could definitely be a meaningful amount.


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I agree with you about some kids do not get enough food at home and need the school breakfast and/or lunch programs. Also, the schools can work out a system to buy from local farmers that is not being sold due to the virus and that would benefit them.

 

[Tamaradarann]

I don’t see digital keys and apps significantly impacting jobs at all. They’re currently used as ways to differentiate hotel operators for primarily business travelers who want to save the time from checking in, etc. In my limited experience trying to use them they also don’t work consistently, but I’m sure that will improve.

Limiting housekeeping would surely impact jobs, but some of those jobs (at least at the Westin’s in Maui) I was told some (most?) of their staff are brought in from the Philippines. Perhaps this has changed but if still true then this won’t have much impact. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised if all of them use this as an excuse to reduce service and/or increase costs, etc.


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You say brought in. There have roots in the Philipines; just like my family has roots in Italy, Germany, Ireland, Poland etc. but they are and have been living in Hawaii and Hawaii is their home. They need their Housekeeping Job just as much as any of the other other person needs their job.

 

[csodjd]

Their W-4 withholding will take care of that. They are poor, not stupid.

I know of plenty of smart people that were unaware that unemployment benefits were taxed.

 

[controller1]

N/A

 

[geist1223]

I am still hoping for September 1, 2020.

 

[Ken555]

You say brought in. There have roots in the Philipines; just like my family has roots in Italy, Germany, Ireland, Poland etc. but they are and have been living in Hawaii and Hawaii is their home. They need their Housekeeping Job just as much as any of the other other person needs their job.

Sorry, that’s not what I meant. Sure there are many immigrants, but I was specifically told that there are a significant number of temporary workers who are foreign nationals that move to Hawaii for a season (or longer) for a specific job at a large employer. A quick search shows placement agencies, job availability, ways to get green cards, etc. Perhaps this has lessened in recent years...I’m admittedly not well versed in the details of this process.


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[Yellowfin]

I am still hoping for September 1, 2020.

The availability is very low in Interval for August. Either people have information that we do not have or everyone is just hoping for the best.

 

[skimble]

While I agree that the CARES Act has messed up a lot of things, that's getting political. The discussion is about whether Hawaii will reopen.

 

[DeniseM]

Boys and Girls - I have given this thread a lot of latitude, but if you can't stay out of the politics and social issues, it can be closed.

 

[Tamaradarann]

Boys and Girls - I have given this thread a lot of latitude, but if you can't stay out of the politics and social issues, it can be closed.

OK, here is a topic related item. I just looked at the IHME latest projections as of June 10th show that Hawaii will go from no cases a day recently to many cases a day in October and over 300 total deaths. I am not sure that the projection was a predication that Hawaii would be removing the 14 day quaratine and therefore opening to many tourists. We are in New York right now and while New York has been in Coronavirus hell it also shows that by October there would be little to no cases in New York. I am not sure that these projections are correct but they certainly do make you think.

 

[DeniseM]

The shaded area appears to show the uncertainty of what will happen when tourism returns:

 

[csodjd]

The shaded area appears to show the uncertainty of what will happen when tourism returns:
View attachment 22047

That uncertainty no doubt reflects that there is a wide range of possibilities once tourism reopens... come one, come all at one end, to pre-flight testing, temp screening, random surveillance testing, etc. Like us, IHME has no clues from the Governor what level of defense the state will put up. Hence, a wide range. I think most would agree that if they just did nothing, there would be a lot of cases. I think most would also agree that they are not going to just do nothing. Heck, like everyone else, they're just guessing at WHEN tourism will return.

 

[Tamaradarann]

That uncertainty no doubt reflects that there is a wide range of possibilities once tourism reopens... come one, come all at one end, to pre-flight testing, temp screening, random surveillance testing, etc. Like us, IHME has no clues from the Governor what level of defense the state will put up. Hence, a wide range. I think most would agree that if they just did nothing, there would be a lot of cases. I think most would also agree that they are not going to just do nothing. Heck, like everyone else, they're just guessing at WHEN tourism will return.

I guess they feel that they need to make a projection and since they, like us, don't know anything they are projecting based on not knowing anything. While I have been saying that while we know that the number of cases will rise when they remove the 14 day quarantine we don't know how much the number of cases will rise, I never put it down in a graph which gives the appearance of having some scientific basis for the projection.

 

[csodjd]

I guess they feel that they need to make a projection and since they, like us, don't know anything they are projecting based on not knowing anything. While I have been saying that while we know that the number of cases will rise when they remove the 14 day quarantine we don't know how much the number of cases will rise, I never put it down in a graph which gives the appearance of having some scientific basis for the projection.

Well, it's probably scientific in the sense that the peak represents their estimate of worst-case, if there are no mitigating actions taken. And to that extent it is informative to Hawaii officials. If they are true to form, as they get more/new/different information they will modify their projections accordingly.

What ought to be of more concern is two-fold: Hawaii had a lot of new cases reported today, and some states are exploding with new cases, including Arizona, Texas, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, and even Mississippi and Nebraska. Though NY and NJ, the two worst at the peak, are doing great, the National new-case count was above 23,000 yesterday and above 26,000 today, reflecting that a lot of states have problems. Moreover, hospitalizations are rapidly increasing in a number of states or cities. Arizona. Houston. Even Austin is experiencing its highest rates since it all started, "On Wednesday, there were a record 24 new hospitalizations. That brought the seven-day average to 13, the highest since the pandemic began," according to a local newspaper there.

Nothing could bring the plans on opening up Hawaii to a halt faster than a big resurgence of the virus.

 

[DavidnRobin]

The Maui Hospital (MMMC) was already a hotspot for CV when the outbreak first occurred - and there are inadequate ICU beds if an large outbreak were to occur. I wouldn’t want to be the person in charge to pick economy over death/morbidity
(Please... no false equivalences or comparison as some here are so quick to jump on). The risks for catching/transmission the virus, and the death-morbidity rates are pretty well disseminated already. If the risks are reduced - the poor health associated with the CV outcomes are reduced.

The SIP/SAH (everywhere) was always about overwhelming ICUs - the AUC (area-under-curve) for deaths/morbidities and C-19 positivity does not drastically change unless herd immunity or vaccine gets developed.


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[csodjd]

C-19 positivity does not drastically change unless herd immunity or vaccine gets developed.

Not sure exactly what you mean there, but it does change with such simple steps as social distancing, wearing face protection, hand washing, sanitizers, avoiding poorly ventilated indoor areas, and temperature screenings. None of these are particularly burdensome, and collectively they have a huge impact on contagion/spread. The danger to Hawaii (or any place) hospitals is not a sick person, it is a sick person spreading it to many others. In technical terms, if R0 (or Rt) is near 0, Hawaii can handle a lot of infected people. If it is 2, it will be overwhelmed quickly by exponential growth.

Here is an interesting site: https://rt.live/ It shows R values by state in almost real time. For context, if R is < 1, the number of cases will go down. If R is > 1, the number will go up. If R = 2, you have exponential growth.

Hawaii is current 0.91. However, because of its small numbers, it has a wide area of uncertainty.

p.s. They note that their model assumes contagion begins with symptoms, but that actual contagion likely is before that, and they have not taken that into consideration. So actual Rt may be higher.

 

[slip]

Of the 15 new cases report on Hawaii today, 10 were from one family with a known case in the household and two other cases were also from known cases.

 

[csodjd]

Of the 15 new cases report on Hawaii today, 10 were from one family with a known case in the household and two other cases were also from known cases.

Big family. That aside, the test then becomes what have they done for the past week or so. If they've been good about wearing masks, maybe the infected nobody, or very few. If they've been not that good, maybe they've infected 10, or even 15 others. If 10 tested positive at about the same time, that seems somewhat odd.

 

[slip]

Big family. That aside, the test then becomes what have they done for the past week or so. If they've been good about wearing masks, maybe the infected nobody, or very few. If they've been not that good, maybe they've infected 10, or even 15 others. If 10 tested positive at about the same time, that seems somewhat odd.

He wasn’t that specific, I just posted what the Governor said. I took it to mean that they were being monitored because of the known case but I could be wrong.

 

[JIMinNC]

Big family. That aside, the test then becomes what have they done for the past week or so. If they've been good about wearing masks, maybe the infected nobody, or very few. If they've been not that good, maybe they've infected 10, or even 15 others. If 10 tested positive at about the same time, that seems somewhat odd.

This is the canary in the coal mine that doesn't seem to be getting as much discussion as it should for some reason. A significant portion of the infections outside nursing homes and other such facilities, seems to be spread amongst large households that live together in tight quarters. That's why lower income areas of big cities and even rural areas quickly become hot spots. I know Gov Cuomo in NY mentioned in one of his press briefings that a study they did showed that about two thirds of the new cases studied during the duration of that study were people who had been staying at home. One person in the family goes out, maybe to work, catches the virus and brings it back to infect the household.

 

[DeniseM]

21 members of reported cult that violated 14-day quarantine plan to stay in Hawaii
They are a religious cult known for polygamy and nudism.

21 members of reported cult that violated 14-day quarantine plan to stay in Hawaii | Honolulu Star-Advertiser

Twenty-one members of a cult called Carbon Nation who were arrested for violating the state’s mandatory 14-day quarantine told officials Friday they planned to relocate to Hawaii and wouldn’t accept flight assistance home.

www.staradvertiser.com

*I thought some of our rebels without a cause might want to consider joining.

 

[Ken555]

This is the canary in the coal mine that doesn't seem to be getting as much discussion as it should for some reason. A significant portion of the infections outside nursing homes and other such facilities, seems to be spread amongst large households that live together in tight quarters. That's why lower income areas of big cities and even rural areas quickly become hot spots. I know Gov Cuomo in NY mentioned in one of his press briefings that a study they did showed that about two thirds of the new cases studied during the duration of that study were people who had been staying at home. One person in the family goes out, maybe to work, catches the virus and brings it back to infect the household.

Yes. I’ve been reading this since almost day one of the pandemic. I would think it’s just assumed by now that anyone who lives in the same household as someone infected is likely to catch it, too. Not sure why you think this is a surprise to many. There’s also not much that can be done outside of draconian measures which were discussed in Feb or so. China did it, I believe, by having facilities where infected members of a household could stay so they didn’t infect others and, I think, New York had the provision as well.

You’re touching on an important point, though, in that the method of infection is obvious in at least this manner. So what do we do about it?


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[JIMinNC]

Yes. I’ve been reading this since almost day one of the pandemic. I would think it’s just assumed by now that anyone who lives in the same household as someone infected is likely to catch it, too. Not sure why you think this is a surprise to many. There’s also not much that can be done outside of draconian measures which were discussed in Feb or so. China did it, I believe, by having facilities where infected members of a household could stay so they didn’t infect others and, I think, New York had the provision as well.

You’re touching on an important point, though, in that the method of infection is obvious in at least this manner. So what do we do about it?

If I could answer that question, I'd be selling my consulting services to all 50 states and making a mint! I could buy an OF condo at Kaanapali Alii and quarantine til my heart's content.

China could do it because they are a totalitarian state with a compliant population. I don't know how you do that consistently in a democracy.

I read that in India where there are residential areas with exponentially more density than even New York City, they were actually pushing people to go to work and stay, even sleep at work, to reduce the spread in these dense residential areas. Different solutions are needed everywhere.

 

[slip]

21 members of reported cult that violated 14-day quarantine plan to stay in Hawaii
They are a religious cult known for polygamy and nudism.

21 members of reported cult that violated 14-day quarantine plan to stay in Hawaii | Honolulu Star-Advertiser

Twenty-one members of a cult called Carbon Nation who were arrested for violating the state’s mandatory 14-day quarantine told officials Friday they planned to relocate to Hawaii and wouldn’t accept flight assistance home.

www.staradvertiser.com

This was a big story today. It was also reported yesterday that The Star Advertiser was letting go of 30% of it’s work force.