[Closed - new thread started] Will Hawaii Open by [OCTOBER???] [Please use this thread for all Hawaii Coronavirus discussions]

[cman]

This poll was actually taken almost a month ago when people thought the fatality rate was 10 times more than it is believed to be now.

The poll was taken exactly 25 days ago, and people were not of the belief that the CFR was 10 times what it is now. CFR data is not a constant, it varies throughout the course of a pandemic and is influenced by several factors. This same information was widely available when the poll was taken;

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.

ourworldindata.org

But, as we already know, the question actually leads to a false choice, the virus has not been and will not be stopped as we can see from the current increase of new cases.

This may be true for most states, but not for Hawaii. They did stop it. Out of a population of 1.4 million, they only have 76 active cases. So for all practical purposes, their containment efforts have been effective.

The question should be:
"Should we keep the measures in place indefinitely and possibly (but not guaranteed) have a lower number of Covid cases (for a longer period of time) but cause great financial distress to 25% of Hawaiians and expect a number of social services to be cut, furloughs and a significant increase in taxes?

This is a question for Hawaiians to decide. We can opine all we want, but it's ultimately up to the citizens and government of Hawaii.

 

[JIMinNC]

You know, I could probably condense this whole thread down to just 10 points. Many of you just keep posting the same old thing over and over.

1) I'm mad because Hawaii is closed and I don't get to go on vacation - how dare they!
2) The whole thing is a big conspiracy - there is no Coronavirus danger.
3) I'm going to use this thread to promote all of my Coronavirus Socially Contentious beliefs + a few about the demonstrations.
4) Let's discuss a lot of random science that is unproven and most of us don't understand.
5) Let's make this an us vs. the Hawaiian people thing.
6) Let's predict dire consequences for Hawaii if they don't let me go on vacation - starving children!
7) Let's complain, because Hawaii has not made it crystal clear exactly what they are going to do, and I want to know NOW, dammit!
8) Let's get mad at the moderator because she won't let us post this junk in the other thread - we don't need no stinkin' facts!
9) Let's complain about our maintenance fees - why can't Hawaii see that it OWES me big time!
10) I can't even thing of 10.

I looked back through the thread and couldn’t find any that really fit #2 on your list and maybe not any #3 either. In general I think TUGgers have done a good job staying away from the more political conspiracy theories and junk science that seem to be so prevalent in some other forums.

 

[DeniseM]

Well, I don't want to point out exactly what posts I was referring to, so I'll just say that YMMV.

 

[Yellowfin]

The poll was taken exactly 25 days ago, and people were not of the belief that the CFR was 10 times what it is now. CFR data is not a constant, it varies throughout the course of a pandemic and is influenced by several factors. This same information was widely available when the poll was taken;

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.

ourworldindata.org

This may be true for most states, but not for Hawaii. They did stop it. Out of a population of 1.4 million, they only have 76 active cases. So for all practical purposes, their containment efforts have been effective.

This is a question for Hawaiians to decide. We can opine all we want, but it's ultimately up to the citizens and government of Hawaii.

It is like saying that you can avoid drowning by holding your breath indefinitely. That is not possible and this is exactly what is happening in Hawaii. They kept the islands closed even for inter-island travel, but that was not sustainable so the number of cases has not been zero and it will go up, like everywhere else. Also, new cases seemed to pop up every few days. This is not possible unless a lot of other cases were just not reported. I assume they are not testing as much as other states daily.

About the fatality rate, we shall see. I have seen studies that it is in the 0.4-0.5% range now. Remember, that link shows the numbers based on testing those with more severe symptoms, not everyone who has been exposed.

As we all know the decision is not up to the citizens but up to the governor.

 

[Luanne]

As we all know the decision is not up to the citizens but up to the governor.

Yep. And it's not up to us either.

 

[csodjd]

I know! It might actually come to four figures per year!

(Yes, that was sarcasm.)

The vast majority of this thread is a bunch of people upset that they can't (or might not be able to) go on a vacation they've already paid for because the Hawaii government is taking a more conservative position than many others. Couching it in a concern for the people and economic well-being of Hawaii is a bunch of hooey, nothing more.

I have about $85,000 cash invested and spend another $7000 per year on ownership interests in properties in Hawaii. I spend about a month and a half there each year. I think I'm allowed to have an opinion or voice my thoughts and wishes and hopes. And I believe that investment, and that I'm an American citizen, also gives me the right to care about the economic health of Hawaii. My bar isn't very high. I'd just like to know about when we'll know.

 

[csodjd]

About the fatality rate, we shall see. I have seen studies that it is in the 0.4-0.5% range now. Remember, that link shows the numbers based on testing those with more severe symptoms, not everyone who has been exposed.

This is not a disease where a single "fatality rate" provides helpful information, because that rate varies so profoundly from one demographic to another. It is not an equal-opportunity killer. If you're 40 years old and in good health your risk of death from COVID-19 is a fraction of that compared with being 78 years old, hypertensive and Type II diabetes.

Someone earlier aptly described how the "concern" has transformed from keeping the amount of COVID low enough to ensure the hospitals could handle the volume, to keeping COVID out of Hawaii. COVID cannot be kept out of Hawaii. I don't believe the Governor is waiting for or shooting for that, though some of his actions could be interpreted otherwise. But here is a reality: if you are 78, diabetic and hypertensive, you probably shouldn't be engaging in any "COVID risk" until there is a treatment. If you are 40 and in good health, it is largely the risk of getting sick for a week or two. Stay socially distant and use good hygiene, and the risk is quite low.

 

[csodjd]

As we all know the decision is not up to the citizens but up to the governor.

That is clearly true. But Governor's are also politicians, and I hope they listen to and give consideration to the citizens they are serving.

 

[csodjd]

You know, I could probably condense this whole thread down to just 10 points. Many of you just keep posting the same old thing over and over.

1) I'm mad because Hawaii is closed and I don't get to go on vacation - how dare they!
2) The whole thing is a big conspiracy - there is no Coronavirus danger.
3) I'm going to use this thread to promote all of my Coronavirus Socially Contentious beliefs + a few about the demonstrations.
4) Let's discuss a lot of random science that is unproven and most of us don't understand.
5) Let's make this an us vs. the Hawaiian people thing.
6) Let's predict dire consequences for Hawaii if they don't let me go on vacation - starving children!
7) Let's complain, because Hawaii has not made it crystal clear exactly what they are going to do, and I want to know NOW, dammit!
8) Let's get mad at the moderator because she won't let us post this junk in the other thread - we don't need no stinkin' facts!
9) Let's complain about our maintenance fees - why can't Hawaii see that it OWES me big time!
10) I can't even thing of 10.

It's amusing to me that this is a thread TITLED, "Will Hawaii Open by [AUGUST]? [Please use this thread for all Hawaii Coronavirus discussions]" and yet you appear to be surprised and unhappy or dismayed that there are a lot of posts about Hawaii and Coronavirus and whether Hawaii will open by August.

 

[lynne]

This is not a disease where a single "fatality rate" provides helpful information, because that rate varies so profoundly from one demographic to another. It is not an equal-opportunity killer. If you're 40 years old and in good health your risk of death from COVID-19 is a fraction of that compared with being 78 years old, hypertensive and Type II diabetes.

Someone early aptly described how the "concern" has transformed from keeping the amount of COVID low enough to ensure the hospitals could handle the volume, to keeping COVID out of Hawaii. COVID cannot be kept out of Hawaii. I don't believe the Governor is waiting for or shooting for that, though some of his actions could be interpreted otherwise. But here is a reality: if you are 78, diabetic and hypertensive, you probably shouldn't be engaging in any "COVID risk" until there is a treatment. If you are 40 and in good health, it is largely the risk of getting sick for a week or two. Stay socially distant and use good hygiene, and the risk is quite low.

These blanket statements are simply not supported. Healthy 40 somethings with no underlying conditions are getting severe cases - there are many examples if you take the time to find them:

Coronavirus News: Healthy NJ doctor, marathon runner shares his surprise battle with COVID-19

Weeks before coming down with COVID-19, Dr. Josh Fiske had been fine and healthy, vacationing with family and running.

abc7ny.com

 

[csodjd]

These blanket statements are simply not supported. Healthy 40 somethings with no underlying conditions are getting severe cases - there are many examples if you take the time to find them:

Coronavirus News: Healthy NJ doctor, marathon runner shares his surprise battle with COVID-19

Weeks before coming down with COVID-19, Dr. Josh Fiske had been fine and healthy, vacationing with family and running.

abc7ny.com

I said the risk is "quite low." You argue apparently just because you like to argue. There is also risk of being in a fatal car crash on the way to your flight. Also a low risk. Each person can make their own decision on whether it is a risk they are willing to accept or not. But clearly the risk is not the same between the 78 yo diabetic hypertensive vs the 40 yo in good health, so why do you feel the need to argue as if that's not the case?

| Data | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

data.cdc.gov

Without even filtering for comorbidities, CDC reports 1649 deaths in the 40 age group, vs almost 25,5230 in the 78 age group. The fact is, the blanket statement IS supported.

 

[JIMinNC]

These blanket statements are simply not supported. Healthy 40 somethings with no underlying conditions are getting severe cases - there are many examples if you take the time to find them:

Coronavirus News: Healthy NJ doctor, marathon runner shares his surprise battle with COVID-19

Weeks before coming down with COVID-19, Dr. Josh Fiske had been fine and healthy, vacationing with family and running.

abc7ny.com

The news media does like to focus on the very small minority of cases where younger healthy people come down with very severe cases. Virtually every disease has exceptions to the rule. Dr Fauci even mentioned way back in April that even a well known, relatively common disease like the flu sometimes results in serious complications or even death in people that you wouldn’t expect to see that outcome. That seems to be happening more often with COVID, but as @csodjd said, it is still rare. The media seems to cover those exceptions because they are rare, probably for the same reason small plane crashes get more coverage than car crashes.

 

[DeniseM]

you appear to be surprised and unhappy or dismayed

Nope - Amused I actually appreciate the fact that you guys are all posting in this thread, and not all over the place - thank you!

 

[csodjd]

The news media does like to focus on the very small minority of cases where younger healthy people come down with very severe cases. Virtually every disease has exceptions to the rule. Dr Fauci even mentioned way back in April that even a well known, relatively common disease like the flu sometimes results in serious complications or even death in people that you wouldn’t expect to see that outcome. That seems to be happening more often with COVID, but as @csodjd said, it is still rare. The media seems to cover those exceptions because they are rare, probably for the same reason small plane crashes get more coverage than car crashes.

I've tried to take a pragmatic view of COVID risk. It's generally how I am. I know I'll die from something, so I cannot insulate myself entirely from risk of death. Flu. Car. MI. CA. Who knows. COVID is just a new risk. My goal of living is to live, not to not die. In other words, do those things I enjoy doing. So, with that context, I (mentally) exclude from the data all those that are not "like" me. I'm not in a care facility. I don't work in a meat factory. I don't live in the inner city. I'm not caring for COVID patients (I don't see patients anymore, I now exclusively practice healthcare law). So I say to myself, what is the risk of death or serious disease from COVID in a 62 yo white upper middle class guy living in the suburbs that works at home that had three stents but is otherwise healthy, with no history of HTN, DM, or really anything, that wears a mask outside and washes his hands? All in all, it's pretty small. Not 0. Dying in a car accident is also not 0. But its small enough that I won't let that risk prevent me from living. When COVID was real new, the risk was unknown. That warranted more caution. It's reasonably well known now, and for me, its small. I've not yet even learned that anyone I KNOW tested positive. So, I just refuse to spin out of control with fear. What CAN happen (COVID or no COVID) is really not relevant, because that would prevent me from ever leaving my house, or driving a car, much less ever get in an airplane. What is relevant to me is whether the risk is acceptable. I've flown, and possibly driven, a million miles because I was okay with the risk.

All that is to say, we should each make our own decision on the risk we will take, but it starts with a pragmatic, not fear-based, understanding.

 

[csodjd]

Nope - Amused I actually appreciate the fact that you guys are all posting in this thread, and not all over the place - thank you!

I learn from others. I learn more from those I don't agree with, at least if/when they make a good argument for their viewpoint. I may not agree, but I learn to understand.

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

I learn from others. I learn more from those I don't agree with, at least if/when they make a good argument for their viewpoint. I may not agree, but I learn to understand.

Apart from the rules of sandbox, the most useful precept I think I have tried to assimilate in my life is Steven Covey's "Seek first to understand".

When you feel like exploding or screaming, or you feel the other person is an idiot or a dolt, or you wonder what planet they came from, it's so much more effective to take a deep breath and start to figure out why that person feels the way they do.

Because the odds are that the person is not an idiot, or out of touch with reality, but rather views things from a; different perspective. And if you learn what that perspective is - when you grok it to the level where you can say "that could be me" - then you expand your understanding and awareness. That doesn't mean that you actually agree - it means that you understand.

And, most importantly, it means that you see the people you might disagree with as people, not caricatures. As people whom you can even relate to, even though you might be utter opponents.

 

[JIMinNC]

I've tried to take a pragmatic view of COVID risk. It's generally how I am. I know I'll die from something, so I cannot insulate myself entirely from risk of death. Flu. Car. MI. CA. Who knows. COVID is just a new risk. My goal of living is to live, not to not die. In other words, do those things I enjoy doing. So, with that context, I (mentally) exclude from the data all those that are not "like" me. I'm not in a care facility. I don't work in a meat factory. I don't live in the inner city. I'm not caring for COVID patients (I don't see patients anymore, I now exclusively practice healthcare law). So I say to myself, what is the risk of death or serious disease from COVID in a 62 yo white upper middle class guy living in the suburbs that works at home that had three stents but is otherwise healthy, with no history of HTN, DM, or really anything, that wears a mask outside and washes his hands? All in all, it's pretty small. Not 0. Dying in a car accident is also not 0. But its small enough that I won't let that risk prevent me from living. When COVID was real new, the risk was unknown. That warranted more caution. It's reasonably well known now, and for me, its small. I've not yet even learned that anyone I KNOW tested positive. So, I just refuse to spin out of control with fear. What CAN happen (COVID or no COVID) is really not relevant, because that would prevent me from ever leaving my house, or driving a car, much less ever get in an airplane. What is relevant to me is whether the risk is acceptable. I've flown, and possibly driven, a million miles because I was okay with the risk.

All that is to say, we should each make our own decision on the risk we will take, but it starts with a pragmatic, not fear-based, understanding.

I have evolved over the last three months to feel the same way you do. I’m about the same age, 63, and am also an upper middle class suburban male who works from home, and who wears a mask whenever I’m in a retail store or any other interior area other than my home or vacation condo. My only other risk factor that I know of is I do have a history of high blood pressure, but it is well controlled in the normal range with medication. Since it’s controlled I’m not sure if it still qualifies as a risk factor or not. My wife also works from home now that her business travel is paused, so neither of us is forced to interact outside our home unless we choose to or have external purchase needs.

It is reassuring to me to read that an MD like yourself has come to look at things in a similar way. I’m sort of a numbers geek, and I came to my conclusion by looking at the numbers and looking at the odds/probabilities rather than any medical knowledge. I figure if I act responsibly and don’t do dumb things, the risk of serious illness or death is not that high. As you said, it is greater than zero, and is an additional risk on top of all the other risks we face in life, but taking that hopefully low risk seems preferable to locking myself up at home until a proven vaccine or treatment is available. I will wear a mask when I shop and will still use curbside pickup and Amazon orders when it makes sense, but I no longer hesitate to go anywhere that is open. I just take precautions and wash my hands/use sanitizer.

 

[cman]

Apart from the rules of sandbox, the most useful precept I think I have tried to assimilate in my life is Steven Covey's "Seek first to understand".

When you feel like exploding or screaming, or you feel the other person is an idiot or a dolt, or you wonder what planet they came from, it's so much more effective to take a deep breath and start to figure out why that person feels the way they do.

Because the odds are that the person is not an idiot, or out of touch with reality, but rather views things from a; different perspective. And if you learn what that perspective is - when you grok it to the level where you can say "that could be me" - then you expand your understanding and awareness. That doesn't mean that you actually agree - it means that you understand.

And, most importantly, it means that you see the people you might disagree with as people, not caricatures. As people whom you can even relate to, even though you might be utter opponents.

That's the most insightful thing I've seen all day. You gave me something that I can take away, and I appreciate it. You sir, have won the internet for the day.

 

[amycurl]

So what I am hearing you both saying is if white, upper-middle class men aren’t dying, but could be asymptomatically infecting lots of non-white, poorer people, who are much more likely to die, then why should the white, middle-class people care?

That is honestly how I am hearing you both. The issue with this virus is that individual choices affect waaaay more people than that individual. And it saddens me that so few seem to understand that, and are willing to act and make policy choices accordingly.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[csodjd]

And, most importantly, it means that you see the people you might disagree with as people, not caricatures. As people whom you can even relate to, even though you might be utter opponents.

Every weekend, and sometimes 1-2 times during the week, I play golf with a group of guys, several of whom I have a VERY VERY different view of our President. But, I'm playing golf with them, not marrying them. They surely think my views are as absurd as I do theirs. But if we win $15 as partners, we're okay with that.

 

[CPNY]

Hope so

 

[csodjd]

So what I am hearing you both saying is if white, upper-middle class men aren’t dying, but could be asymptotically infecting lots of non-white, poorer people, who are much more likely to die, then why should the white, middle-class people care?

That is honestly how I am hearing you both. The issue with this virus is that individual choices affect waaaay more people than that individual. And it saddens me that so few seem to understand that, and are willing to act and make policy choices accordingly.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Well, in addition to being rather rude and disrespectful in your comment by ASSUMING I/we don't care if we infect others and trying to put words into our mouth as if we said that, I think you (conveniently?) missed the part where we both said we wear masks when we go out (that's not for MY benefit, it is so I don't infect someone else), and that we generally don't have a lot of risk of becoming infected in the first place (work at home, etc.). If my risk of becoming infected is small, my risk of infecting someone else is substantially smaller. And if I wear a mask, it is almost zero. If I stay 6 ft away, and wear a mask, and have low risk of having become infected, it is zero. So, you can hear what you want. But that's not necessarily what was said.

 

[JIMinNC]

So what I am hearing you both saying is if white, upper-middle class men aren’t dying, but could be asymptomatically infecting lots of non-white, poorer people, who are much more likely to die, then why should the white, middle-class people care?

That is honestly how I am hearing you both. The issue with this virus is that individual choices affect waaaay more people than that individual. And it saddens me that so few seem to understand that, and are willing to act and make policy choices accordingly.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Couldn’t be further from the truth. As @csodjd said, we both said we were wearing masks when we go out. We both said we are washing our hands and using sanitizer. Speaking for myself, we don’t go out doing dumb things like going to big crowds that aren’t social distancing. Sounds like we are both doing the things CDC and WHO recommend to limit the spread. No, we aren’t afraid to go out when we need to because it sounds like we have both analyzed the risk to ourselves and others, have listened to the science and the statistics, and have both independently concluded that if we wear masks and practice good sanitation hygiene we are not putting others or ourselves at significant risk.

Speaking for myself, if I were 75 with more significant health issues, I would be even more cautious and would take even more precautions, because that’s what the public health recommendations say. If I lived in an urban setting with higher density and was forced to use public transit to go to the store, I would also behave differently.

There are indeed many people out there who either don’t believe this is real or who don’t care their behavior could impact others, because they don’t seem to be trying to social distance and don’t wear masks. I see that behavior more from tourists in Hilton Head when we go to our condo there than I do when going out in Charlotte where we live, but those folks are around everywhere we go. We try to give them a wide berth. My wife and I went to Michael’s craft store today in Charlotte to take a canvas to be framed for our HHI condo and were very pleased to see that all employees and every customer we saw there were masked.

You are correct that some people seem to not be concerned about how their actions impact others. I can assure you we are not one of those and have been wearing masks and keeping our distance from others since March. We just aren’t living in fear. We are trying to do what we need to do, but do it responsibly.

In the final analysis, just staying home was never going to be a long term solution. It bought us time, but eventually, whether now or a few months from now, we all have to learn to model the behaviors needed to function while protecting ourselves and others. That is the only sustainable solution that will allow us to live our life while we wait for a vaccine or the virus to run its course.

And eventually, whenever Hawaii opens up to tourists, I’m convinced we will have to make adjustments there too - either testing requirements to go in the first place or safety protocols we should follow when there. As long as they aren’t draconian, we’re all in. Just let us come and we’ll do what we need to do to protect ourselves and the Hawaiian people

 

[cman]

Waiting for this thread to get nuked. 10...9...8...7...

 

[Yellowfin]

why exactly would this be closed?