[Closed - new thread started] Will Hawaii Open by [OCTOBER???] [Please use this thread for all Hawaii Coronavirus discussions]

[DavidnRobin]

They have the same immunity that everyone else has to this - none. Theirs is no different.

Point missed...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[csodjd]

I apologize for single-ing you out on this. It is a common error often made with no intent to disrespect. The other common error is for people to watch and participate in media and attach conclusions about how an entire group of people stand on an issue. Like the international telescope on Mauna Kea or sovereignty. There are diverse beliefs on these issues among native Hawaiians and among the rest of the people of Hawaii. As to the visitor industry, people are getting crushed. Opinions can vary from one person to the next depending on personal impact. And personal impact can change from one day to the next. For example, someone could be stressed about the roof over their head and then it is announced that they get an extra couple thousand a month in benefits. Instant change in outlook.

This really isn’t that complicated. “Hawaiian’s“ refers to people of Hawaiian decent. ”Hawaiian residents” refers to people that live in Hawaii. If I move to Hawaii, I’d be a resident, but most certainly not Hawaiian.

As for “opinions,” I think most are referring to the majority opinion, not everyone’s opinion. I don’t think anyone would argue if someone said Hawaii is a liberal state. That doesn’t mean everyone there is liberal, nor do I think it would be understood to mean that. California, for instance, is clearly a “liberal” state. But I believe more counties are actually politically conservative, they just aren’t the large population centers. But there are a lot of conservatives and a lot of Trump supporters in California. Just not close to a majority.

I wouldn’t get too caught up in Semantics when you know what was meant. Most people don’t talk or write with lawyer-like precision.

 

[csodjd]

Question. Why should I visit Hawaii when there is an major outbreak of COVID-19 there?

It's not just a matter of Hawaii not letting me go. Why should we let residents of Hawaii in, currrently? (Think of all the people New York are quarantining. . . )

“Major outbreak” needs to be put in context. In Hawaii, that context is largely about the capacity of their medical system. In a city the size of Honolulu it’s hard to say the “outbreak” is “major.” I think it would be more fair to say that officials there want to act before it BECOMES a major outbreak to keep it from becoming one.

 

[Kapolei]

I wouldn’t get too caught up in Semantics when you know what was meant. Most people don’t talk or write with lawyer-like precision.

I appreciate this excellent point. We need to be kind and gracious when we disagree or want to share different perspectives.

 

[Roger830]

Hawaii is now seeing the fastest rate of increase of anywhere in US.

This is probably because they are measuring from a small base because extreme quarantine measures kept cases low.

Pay me now or pay me later.

Hawaii seeing fastest rate of COVID-19 spread of anywhere in the US

Hawaii is now battling the highest rate of coronavirus transmission in the nation, new data shows.

nypost.com

 

[cman]

No disrespect intended -- not sure why you ever thought that? I simply used the term Hawaiians and then clarified in my followup post what I meant by that after your post. I can certainly use "people of Hawaii" in the future; no problem.

Kurt

You raised a good question. I had been misusing the term also. I saw this explanation on the internet;

People who are native to Hawaii are called Hawaiians. People who live in Hawaii but are not native Hawaiians, even if born in the state, are referred to as Hawaii residents or islanders.

 

[DeniseM]

Or "locals" "A local guy"

 

[csodjd]

Back on point... today is Aug 11. The travel rules from outside Hawaii are scheduled to change in about 20 days. That’s not too far off. I would imaging that hotels and timeshares are ramping up to open Sept. 1. Seems the Governor has to make a decision if he’s going to delay the opening soon, very soon. Is anyone saying anything? I’d think they’d want to see the new cases drop below 100, or even below 50, before opening up.

But here is a critical fact. For the past 7 days, the infection rate is 5.7%. That’s actually not awful. It would not be all that hard to drop that below 5%, even well below 5%. It has gone down each day for the last 3 days. It was 4% yesterday. If it drops below 4% and stabilizes that may allow them to stay the course given the requirement for a negative test.

Hawaii COVID-19 Data | Disease Outbreak Control Division | COVID-19

health.hawaii.gov

 

[Luanne]

Back on point... today is Aug 11. The travel rules from outside Hawaii are scheduled to change in about 20 days. That’s not too far off. I would imaging that hotels and timeshares are ramping up to open Sept. 1. Seems the Governor has to make a decision if he’s going to delay the opening soon, very soon. Is anyone saying anything? I’d think they’d want to see the new cases drop below 100, or even below 50, before opening up.

But here is a critical fact. For the past 7 days, the infection rate is 5.7%. That’s actually not awful. It would not be all that hard to drop that below 5%, even well below 5%. It has gone down each day for the last 3 days. It was 4% yesterday. If it drops below 4% and stabilizes that may allow them to stay the course given the requirement for a negative test.

Hawaii COVID-19 Data | Disease Outbreak Control Division | COVID-19

health.hawaii.gov

At this point I would say "the travel rules from outside Hawaii might change in about 20 days. The way it's been going I wouldn't say anything is a done deal at this point.

 

[csodjd]

At this point I would say "the travel rules from outside Hawaii might change in about 20 days. The way it's been going I would say anything is a done deal at this point.

I assume you meant you “wouldn’t” say anything is a done deal.

The question is, would the Governor change the date just days, or a day, before the new rules are set to go into effect? He’s expressed before sensitivity to the time needed for hotels, etc., to ramp up and be ready to open. If he’s still sensitive to that, I’d think he has a (perhaps self-imposed) drop dead date that’s almost upon him. But that’s all speculative. That‘s why I wonder if those that are living in Hawaii have any insights.

 

[Luanne]

I assume you meant you “wouldn’t” say anything is a done deal.

The question is, would the Governor change the date just days, or a day, before the new rules are set to go into effect? He’s expressed before sensitivity to the time needed for hotels, etc., to ramp up and be ready to open. If he’s still sensitive to that, I’d think he has a (perhaps self-imposed) drop dead date that’s almost upon him. But that’s all speculative. That‘s why I wonder if those that are living in Hawaii have any insights.

Yes, that's what I meant. I went back and corrected it.

I don't know the governor, but yes, if the numbers are getting worse I think he would/could change the date just a few days ahead. He reinstated the inter-island quarantine with just 4 days notice.

 

[csodjd]

Yes, that's what I meant. I went back and corrected it.

I don't know the governor, but yes, if the numbers are getting worse I think he would/could change the date just a few days ahead. He reinstated the inter-island quarantine with just 4 days notice.

True, but I’m not sure that implicates hotels and other tourism-related businesses that need to ramp up for a mainland opening In quite the same way.

 

[Luanne]

True, but I’m not sure that implicates hotels and other tourism-related businesses that need to ramp up for a mainland opening In quite the same way.

All I was saying was, he's made quick decisions in the past.

 

[slip]

No special insight but if he follows past announcements, he will make one this week or early next week.

Case were at 113 today so it would be good to get back into single digits but I remember he was showing concern when we approached 50 cases.

I really think he will extend it but that is only my guess on what he will do.

 

[csodjd]

No special insight but if he follows past announcements, he will make one this week or early next week.

Case were at 113 today so it would be good to get back into single digits but I remember he was showing concern when we approached 50 cases.

I really think he will extend it but that is only my guess on what he will do.

I certainly would not be surprised if he does. But if that 113 declines over the next few days AND the positive rate settles into the 2-3% he may see the “crisis” as having passed. It seems Hawaii, primarily Oahu, got hit by a dose of complacency and found out that that doesn’t work well with a virus. But, if they get down < 50 over the next week, they’ll have also learned that they can control and contain the virus, they just have to be more diligent and not become complacent again. That’s actually an encouraging sign IMO.

 

[JIMinNC]

A lot of it has to do with perspective. Many other states would be reasonably pleased with Hawaii's 5% positive rate, but Hawaii pegged their strategy to maintaining a VERY low rate of infection, based probably on their great success reducing infection to almost zero in May. Such a strategy may prove to be very difficult without continuing significant restrictions somewhat indefinitely.

New Zealand had been case-free for 101 days, but just re-imposed a lock-down on Auckland and increased restrictions nationwide because of just four new cases, all of them in one family. It seems once you embark on a strategy of elimination, it becomes very difficult to pivot to a strategy of containment.

 

[csodjd]

A lot of it has to do with perspective. Many other states would be reasonably pleased with Hawaii's 5% positive rate, but Hawaii pegged their strategy to maintaining a VERY low rate of infection, based probably on their great success reducing infection to almost zero in May. Such a strategy may prove to be very difficult without continuing significant restrictions somewhat indefinitely.

New Zealand had been case-free for 101 days, but just re-imposed a lock-down on Auckland and increased restrictions nationwide because of just four new cases, all of them in one family. It seems once you embark on a strategy of elimination, it becomes very difficult to pivot to a strategy of containment.

Yet containment is easy and effective once you have the rate down low. I agree, a 5% rate probably doesn’t cut it for Hawaii, for numerous reasons. But even with their awful last few weeks, they were at 4% yesterday. So a 1% rate is likely to be seen in the next week. How low is low enough? Zero is setting an unattainable target. So there’s going to need to be some acceptable non-zero rate.

An important associated question is, what is the “positive rate” among those taking a PCR test and getting a negative result within 72 hours of departure for Hawaii? Say we use California has a benchmark. Assume it’s got a 6% rate. If you retest the 94% of negatives, what percent come back and actually are positive? That’s approximately the risk of an infected person coming into Hawaii AFTER testing negative. I say “approximately,” however, because people going to Hawaii are not a random cross-section of the population. Wide swath’s of people aren’t coming... those in prison, those in nursing homes, those earning $25k/yr or less, etc. Those are also the populations at greatest risk of being infected.

 

[PigsDad]

An important associated question is, what is the “positive rate” among those taking a PCR test and getting a negative result within 72 hours of departure for Hawaii? Say we use California has a benchmark. Assume it’s got a 6% rate. If you retest the 94% of negatives, what percent come back and actually are positive? That’s approximately the risk of an infected person coming into Hawaii AFTER testing negative. I say “approximately,” however, because people going to Hawaii are not a random cross-section of the population. Wide swath’s of people aren’t coming... those in prison, those in nursing homes, those earning $25k/yr or less, etc. Those are also the populations at greatest risk of being infected.

Yes, that is a good point -- I think there is probably a very large difference in the population that is planning to travel to Hawaii vs. those who are currently taking tests. The latter group is heavily skewed towards those people who already have symptoms and/or have knowingly been exposed to someone who was infected.

Kurt

 

[csodjd]

Yes, that is a good point -- I think there is probably a very large difference in the population that is planning to travel to Hawaii vs. those who are currently taking tests. The latter group is heavily skewed towards those people who already have symptoms and/or have knowingly been exposed to someone who was infected.

Kurt

There’s an interesting psychological consideration, but one that can’t readily be measured. If you just spent $2000+ for flights for your family and have a room booked for a vacation in Hawaii, and you have to test negative to be allowed to go, and will only get that test result the day before you leave give or take a bit, I would think and hope that you’d be particularly careful the week ahead to avoid any risk situations.

You’re not getting tested because you want to know if you have it, or because you were exposed, or because you have symptoms. You’re being tested because you WANT and NEED a negative result. That outcome of that test depends almost entirely on what you’ve been doing the week or so before the test.

Going to Hawaii will require about a 10-day “prep” period of minimal time out of the house or doing anything risky. And if you are thinking that way, the true negative rate should be very, very, high.

 

[travelhacker]

There’s an interesting psychological consideration, but one that can’t readily be measured. If you just spent $2000+ for flights for your family and have a room booked for a vacation in Hawaii, and you have to test negative to be allowed to go, and will only get that test result the day before you leave give or take a bit, I would think and hope that you’d be particularly careful the week ahead to avoid any risk situations.

You’re not getting tested because you want to know if you have it, or because you were exposed, or because you have symptoms. You’re being tested because you WANT and NEED a negative result. That outcome of that test depends almost entirely on what you’ve been doing the week or so before the test.

Going to Hawaii will require about a 10-day “prep” period of minimal time out of the house or doing anything risky. And if you are thinking that way, the true negative rate should be very, very, high.

I agree 100%. I think this should be a no brainer to allow people to come with negative tests. My brother who hasn't been careful at all, had a trip planned in August and he was ready to have all his kids stay home for the 2 weeks before the trip so that they could go. He was NOT going to risk being able to go.

Also, with so much closed -- I think it's really, really easy to socially distance in Hawaii and not risk exposing really anyone.

Tourism will be slow to come back and I would think manageable.

 

[lynne]

Does not look too promising for a September opening:

Gov. Ige: Surge in COVID cases likely means another delay in reopening tourism

HONOLULU (KHON2) — The surge in daily COVID cases and hospitalizations makes it more likely that reopening tourism will not happen on September 1. The governor says he hasn’t made a dec…

www.khon2.com

 

[1Kflyerguy]

Does not look too promising for a September opening:

Gov. Ige: Surge in COVID cases likely means another delay in reopening tourism

HONOLULU (KHON2) — The surge in daily COVID cases and hospitalizations makes it more likely that reopening tourism will not happen on September 1. The governor says he hasn’t made a dec…

www.khon2.com

Now that i canceled our late Sept trip, i would have been annoyed if things opened up.. But to be honest the testing delays here on the mainland are big problem as well. My wife was tested in the last week of July and we still don't have her results... Delays like that will totally ruin the trip anyways. I am planning to rebook for the spring, hoping that things are more stable by then.

 

[dsmrp]

Does not look too promising for a September opening:

Gov. Ige: Surge in COVID cases likely means another delay in reopening tourism

HONOLULU (KHON2) — The surge in daily COVID cases and hospitalizations makes it more likely that reopening tourism will not happen on September 1. The governor says he hasn’t made a dec…

www.khon2.com

+1
The reported positive Covid cases went down to 130 yesterday, but jumped up to over 200 today. And the city hall had a mini outbreak recently, traced back to an employee potluck !

 

[lynne]

+1
The reported positive Covid cases went down to 130 yesterday, but jumped up to over 200 today. And the city hall had a mini outbreak recently, traced back to an employee potluck !

The outbreak appears to be linked to an employee retirement party at Honolulu Hale

 

[dsmrp]

The outbreak appears to be linked to an employee retirement party at Honolulu Hale

Yes, and it was outdoors too.
But the mayor now says it wasn't from that potluck, instead from other informal gatherings in the offices.