[Closed - new thread started] Will Hawaii Open by [OCTOBER???] [Please use this thread for all Hawaii Coronavirus discussions]

[csodjd]

Absolutely, but trust is the wrong word.

My sarcastic reply was more to do with the posts on TUG about the WHO and other scientific experts who have been the target of some here on TUG. There have been posts, sarcastic and otherwise, targeting these organizations and implying that we cannot trust them because they change their advice over time. Of course these individuals don’t understand how science works...but still, it’s quite disheartening, especially since it’s those same people who have been pro opening, pro massive spread to get it over with... and this attitude is encouraged by those who decided to cut funding to the WHO. The whole thing is a mess.

So if some of you criticize the WHO for their earlier advice, I certainly hope you’ll either apologize for it or not believe this latest news. You really can’t have it both ways.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Not funding WHO is about as clever an idea as eliminating the police. And it's not exactly like CDC nailed it the first time around either. Should we defund all of them and just go back to using leeches?

 

[csodjd]

can I just say that a study that mentions the word "suggesting" is not a real study or at least should not be taken as evidence for any public policy decision? The world has been upside down for 3 months, in no small part because of the fear that asymptomatic people were very important in transmitting the virus.

Not every study is the endpoint. Most are not. Most have a definitive conclusion that suggests something which becomes the hypothesis for the next study to examine. It's no less a "real study" because they speculate as to the EXPLANATION for the results found.

 

[csodjd]

It seems there is no question spread CAN occur in asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic people. I suspect a lot of the earlier studies found just that, but since it was early, they really didn't have large statistically-controlled tests. The questions that need to be answered though become more nuanced:

• Is asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic spread more common in closed family settings where people are in close contact for extended periods or hours or days? Such would also apply to other close-quarters environments like nursing homes, prisons, workplaces with little ability to social distance, etc.
• Is it likely for there to be asymptomatic spread from casual, passing contact outside or even indoors if the period of exposure is short?

There seems to be growing evidence that the answers are what you'd expect, yes and no. That may be a result of viral load, or something else.

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

Not every study is the endpoint. Most are not. Most have a definitive conclusion that suggests something which becomes the hypothesis for the next study to examine. It's no less a "real study" because they speculate as to the EXPLANATION for the results found.

Precisely.

It's almost obligatory that every study must end with suggestions, because that forms the basis for the next funding proposal. To conclude an investigation without suggesting additional investigation is an off-ramp from the grants and funding freeway.

 

[lynne]

One of the obstacles facing Hawaii for contact tracing is that the required form for entering the state is not being completed:

Some 75% of the Oahu visitors, who filled out a state DOT travel form, said they were coming to Hawaii to visit with friends and family. About 12% of respondents said they were coming for vacation, while 5% said they came for business and about 2% said they were coming to Hawaii to relocate. The percentages don’t total 100% because 35 people chose not to answer questions about the purpose of their visit. Also, respondents could choose more than one answer.

I cannot see a solution to the 14 day quarantine unless the government puts some teeth into requiring testing and contact tracing.

 

[rickandcindy23]

I thought the governor of Hawaii was making an announcement today. Our daughter is hoping for Big Island and Maui to open mid-July for her trip. I am guessing it won't happen, but I am always, always hopeful.

 

[1Kflyerguy]

I thought the governor of Hawaii was making an announcement today. Our daughter is hoping for Big Island and Maui to open mid-July for her trip. I am guessing it won't happen, but I am always, always hopeful.

Believe they promised more details about opening up sometime this week. Not sure they indicated which day of the week they would make that announcement.

 

[Luanne]

I thought the governor of Hawaii was making an announcement today. Our daughter is hoping for Big Island and Maui to open mid-July for her trip. I am guessing it won't happen, but I am always, always hopeful.

From a previously posted article dated May 28:

"The governor says a mandatory, 14-day quarantine for mainland and international travelers will be extended beyond June 30.

The decision effectively rules out a reopening of the tourism industry by July 1 — a date some had eyed as possible given the state’s low number of new COVID-19 cases.

Gov. David Ige made the announcement Thursday in a virtual gathering with Hawaii’s four mayors. Ige didn’t say when the quarantine might be lifted.

But in the past, the quarantine has been extended a month at a time."

 

[Yellowfin]

From a previously posted article dated May 28:

"The governor says a mandatory, 14-day quarantine for mainland and international travelers will be extended beyond June 30.

The decision effectively rules out a reopening of the tourism industry by July 1 — a date some had eyed as possible given the state’s low number of new COVID-19 cases.

Gov. David Ige made the announcement Thursday in a virtual gathering with Hawaii’s four mayors. Ige didn’t say when the quarantine might be lifted.

But in the past, the quarantine has been extended a month at a time."

Based on the past, it is reasonable to assume that they will extend the quarantine one month at a time but this is not a rule, they can extend it by 2 weeks or any other amount of time.

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

I've had the same question myself.

Just did a quick Google search and found these:

March Study from China Case study of a single family

CDC Report on March 2020 Singapore Study Investigation of all 243 cases of COVID-19 reported in Singapore during January 23–March 16 identified seven clusters of cases in which presymptomatic transmission is the most likely explanation for the occurrence of secondary cases.

Study from NIH published in May In summary, all the 455 contacts were excluded from SARS-CoV-2 infection and we conclude that the infectivity of some asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers might be weak.

It seems there is no question spread CAN occur in asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic people. I suspect a lot of the earlier studies found just that, but since it was early, they really didn't have large statistically-controlled tests. The questions that need to be answered though become more nuanced:

• Is asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic spread more common in closed family settings where people are in close contact for extended periods or hours or days? Such would also apply to other close-quarters environments like nursing homes, prisons, workplaces with little ability to social distance, etc.
• Is it likely for there to be asymptomatic spread from casual, passing contact outside or even indoors if the period of exposure is short?

It Isn't randomized ans double blind, but we are having a large scale test going on with the protestors. It should show up in 2-4 weeks, if asymptomatic contagion is common, in the case numbers. . . .

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

It Isn't randomized ans double blind, but we are having a large scale test going on with the protestors. It should show up in 2-4 weeks, if asymptomatic contagion is common, in the case numbers. . . .

If asymptomatic contagion is common, with the demonstrators skewing to a younger demographic, it's likely that a disproportionate of the next generation transmitters would also be asymptomatic.

And since the data that is tracked most carefully is hospitalization rates, that means the impacts from the demonstrations may start to be most apparent in 4-8 weeks.

 

[cman]

I cannot see a solution to the 14 day quarantine unless the government puts some teeth into requiring testing and contact tracing.

Not sure the status of required testing, but according to this article, today they begin training 300 contact tracers. The training is expected to last the middle of July.

Contact tracing program kicks off Monday

www.kitv.com

 

[MommaBear]

Not funding WHO is about as clever an idea as eliminating the police. And it's not exactly like CDC nailed it the first time around either. Should we defund all of them and just go back to using leeches?

Leeches? Don't we already have politicians?
But seriously, we do still use leeches in microvascular surgeries, such as reattaching fingers.
We need both WHO and the CDC to continue their work on disease study and epidemiology.

 

[JIMinNC]

Well, Hawaii may still be afraid to open, but French Polynesia is not.

We're on Air Tahiti Nui's email list thanks to our amazing cruise in French Polynesia exactly one year ago this week, and just got this tonight. French Polynesia is reopening on July 15 and Air Tahiti Nui is starting LAX-PPT flights on July 16. There are testing and other health requirements that aren't exactly simple, but at least they are trying to restart their tourism economy. Wish Hawaii were being as proactive.

These are the entry requirements:

• Prior to departure
  • Compulsory COVID-19 (RT-PCR) test 72 hours before the departure to French Polynesia
  • Compulsory international travel insurance for every non-resident visitor traveling to French Polynesia (example; coverage provided by some credit cards used to cover the stay);
  • Travelers will have to provide a medical certificate – Specifics to be communicated
    • If the test is negative: boarding
    • If the test is positive: no boarding
  • Travelers who have tested COVID-19 positive more than 3 weeks prior to the departure and who have an immunity certificate proving their recovery are exempt from the requirements listed above – Specifics to be communicated.
• During the flight
  • Application of International Air Transport Association (IATA) sanitary measures for travel (airport procedures and procedures during the flight. Example: wearing a mask); See here for link to full guidelines.
  • Sign a statement of commitment to follow sanitary measures and self-diagnosis of symptoms;
  • Fill in an information form regarding their stay: itinerary and accommodation (e-mail contact / phone / dates of stay).
• During the stay
  • Wearing a mask is recommended;
  • COVID-19 test 4 days after arrival: The Ministry of Health and Prevention of French Polynesia will randomly test a panel of travelers during their stay;
  • Regular visits from a medical staff authorized by the Department of Health will be held in the accommodations and hotel establishments;
  • Application of sanitary measures during the stay;
  • Travelers’ self-diagnosis: alert the authorities by calling the local emergency operations calling center in case of fever and/or breathing difficulties;
  • If a visitor has symptoms or is declared positive:
    • Isolation in self-quarantine in the accommodation;
    • Application of the sanitary measures protocol by the Department of Health – procedures to be communicated.
      
      

 

[csodjd]

Well, Hawaii may still be afraid to open, but French Polynesia is not.

We're on Air Tahiti Nui's email list thanks to our amazing cruise in French Polynesia exactly one year ago this week, and just got this tonight. French Polynesia is reopening on July 15 and Air Tahiti Nui is starting LAX-PPT flights on July 16. There are testing and other health requirements that aren't exactly simple, but at least they are trying to restart their tourism economy. Wish Hawaii were being as proactive.

View attachment 21865

These are the entry requirements:

• Prior to departure
  • Compulsory COVID-19 (RT-PCR) test 72 hours before the departure to French Polynesia
  • Compulsory international travel insurance for every non-resident visitor traveling to French Polynesia (example; coverage provided by some credit cards used to cover the stay);
  • Travelers will have to provide a medical certificate – Specifics to be communicated
    • If the test is negative: boarding
    • If the test is positive: no boarding
  • Travelers who have tested COVID-19 positive more than 3 weeks prior to the departure and who have an immunity certificate proving their recovery are exempt from the requirements listed above – Specifics to be communicated.
• During the flight
  • Application of International Air Transport Association (IATA) sanitary measures for travel (airport procedures and procedures during the flight. Example: wearing a mask); See here for link to full guidelines.
  • Sign a statement of commitment to follow sanitary measures and self-diagnosis of symptoms;
  • Fill in an information form regarding their stay: itinerary and accommodation (e-mail contact / phone / dates of stay).
• During the stay
  • Wearing a mask is recommended;
  • COVID-19 test 4 days after arrival: The Ministry of Health and Prevention of French Polynesia will randomly test a panel of travelers during their stay;
  • Regular visits from a medical staff authorized by the Department of Health will be held in the accommodations and hotel establishments;
  • Application of sanitary measures during the stay;
  • Travelers’ self-diagnosis: alert the authorities by calling the local emergency operations calling center in case of fever and/or breathing difficulties;
  • If a visitor has symptoms or is declared positive:
    • Isolation in self-quarantine in the accommodation;
    • Application of the sanitary measures protocol by the Department of Health – procedures to be communicated.
      

I'm currently booked on an Air Tahiti flight from LAX to Paris in mid-September, then a commuter to London, for a golf tournament in Deal, UK. Of course, not if they have a quarantine in place. But I've not canceled anything since it's booked with AA miles, so I can cancel any time.

None of those rules seem unreasonable. Makes me want to go to French Polynesia!

 

[PigsDad]

Well, Hawaii may still be afraid to open, but French Polynesia is not.
...
These are the entry requirements:
...

• Travelers who have tested COVID-19 positive more than 3 weeks prior to the departure and who have an immunity certificate proving their recovery are exempt from the requirements listed above – Specifics to be communicated.

Evidently, French Polynesia seems to be fairly confident that prior CV-19 infection provides a level of immunity such that they are not concerned about those people being contagious. Kind of contradicts the CDC's statement on immunity (or at least how people are using that statement). Interesting.

Kurt

 

[Yellowfin]

Experts: Reopening tourism without requiring visitors to get tested could trigger ‘disaster’

"Very quickly we will be overwhelmed with new cases."

www.hawaiinewsnow.com

 

[Yellowfin]

David Ige: "I do not think we will allow domestic travel before the end of June"

VIDEO: Gov. David Ige discusses coronavirus updates on COVID-19 Care Conversation | Honolulu Star-Advertiser

Gov. David Ige said today that the recent increase in COVID-19 cases were a result of Memorial Day weekend gatherings.

www.staradvertiser.com

 

[Ken555]

New information from WHO casts considerable doubt on the whole "Asymptomatic Spread" argument that is driving a lot of the travel quarantine hysteria. If this proves out, screening for symptoms may accomplish 90% of what we need to do to mitigate the spread due to travel. COVID-19 "can" be spread by asymptomatic people, but it is rare.

WHO Says Asymptomatic Spread of Coronavirus is "Very Rare."

Well, that didn’t last long until they corrected the mistaken announcement.

World health official walks back findings

Calling the controversy “a misunderstanding,” Maria Van Kerkhove, head of the WHO’s emerging disease and zoonosis unit, said that during the news conference Monday, she was trying to respond to a journalist’s question when she said asymptomatic transmission was “very rare.”

“I wasn’t stating a policy of WHO or anything like that,” she said. “We do know that some people who are asymptomatic, or some people who do not have symptoms, can transmit the virus on.”

After criticism, WHO clarifies stance on asymptomatic virus transmission — The Washington Post

The World Health Organization moved Tuesday to clarify its position on whether people without symptoms are widely spreading the new coronavirus, saying much remains unknown about asymptomatic transmission.

apple.news

WHO official walks back comments on asymptomatic transmission being 'very rare'

WHO official walks back comments on asymptomatic transmission being 'very rare'

Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s technical lead for COVID-19 response, clarified Tuesday that asymptomatic transmission is still 'a major unknown.'

www.usatoday.com

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[JIMinNC]

None of those rules seem unreasonable. Makes me want to go to French Polynesia!

Here's another French Polynesian temptation! From one year ago this week

 

[JIMinNC]

Well, that didn’t last long until they corrected the mistaken announcement.

After criticism, WHO clarifies stance on asymptomatic virus transmission — The Washington Post

The World Health Organization moved Tuesday to clarify its position on whether people without symptoms are widely spreading the new coronavirus, saying much remains unknown about asymptomatic transmission.

apple.news

WHO official walks back comments on asymptomatic transmission being 'very rare'

Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s technical lead for COVID-19 response, clarified Tuesday that asymptomatic transmission is still 'a major unknown.'

www.usatoday.com

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

The walk back was a bit weak though. Reading the clarifications, it sounds like what they are now saying is something like this (my paraphrase, not their words):

We have not seen any studies that can conclusively document significant asymptomatic spread. In fact, the studies we have seen have shown asymptomatic spread to be "very rare." These studies, however, are more anecdotal and do not represent rigidly controlled scientific studies. We know it CAN spread asymptomatically, we just do not yet have enough data to know how prevalent it actually is in the real world. Some of our statistical prediction models estimate that asymptomatic spread could be as high as 40%, but these are just predictive models, not actual field data. We still have much to learn, so this does not change the WHO policy, and we should be careful and continue to guard against the possibility of asymptomatic spread.

I think this is a smart and prudent clarification. What Ms. Kerkhove was apparently trying to say is that most of the empirical evidence they have seen so far does not support extensive asymptomatic spread, but given that we know so little at this point, it is imprudent to assume that is the complete picture and make critical decisions based on that being absolute fact.

I still think it is encouraging that health officials have not been able to conclusively document a lot of asymptomatic spread, despite what the statistical models say is possible.

The general circulation media likes to latch onto things that are simple and clear cut, and sometimes scientists don't always explain the uncertainty that always goes with their work. So, the media tries to find absolutes while the scientist understands, but doesn't always effectively communicate, the uncertainty.

 

[csodjd]

The walk back was a bit weak though. Reading the clarifications, it sounds like what they are now saying is something like this (my paraphrase, not their words):

We have not seen any studies that can conclusively document significant asymptomatic spread. In fact, the studies we have seen have shown asymptomatic spread to be "very rare." These studies, however, are more anecdotal and do not represent rigidly controlled scientific studies. We know it CAN spread asymptomatically, we just do not yet have enough data to know how prevalent it actually is in the real world. Some of our statistical prediction models estimate that asymptomatic spread could be as high as 40%, but these are just predictive models, not actual field data. We still have much to learn, so this does not change the WHO policy, and we should be careful and continue to guard against the possibility of asymptomatic spread.

I think this is a smart and prudent clarification. What Ms. Kerkhove was apparently trying to say is that most of the empirical evidence they have seen so far does not support extensive asymptomatic spread, but given that we know so little at this point, it is imprudent to assume that is the complete picture and make critical decisions based on that being absolute fact.

I still think it is encouraging that health officials have not been able to conclusively document a lot of asymptomatic spread, despite what the statistical models say is possible.

The general circulation media likes to latch onto things that are simple and clear cut, and sometimes scientists don't always explain the uncertainty that always goes with their work. So, the media tries to find absolutes while the scientist understands, but doesn't always effectively communicate, the uncertainty.

While it may be a smart and prudent clarification, I think it was a not-smart and careless statement in the first place. It could easily be understood to say, we don't see any evidence of asymptomatic spread. What they are really saying though is, we really have no idea about asymptomatic spread. And if that's the case, why say anything? The concerns over asymptomatic spread are a major driving force behind the actions and decisions of governments around the world. That's not a good time to be inarticulate.

 

[JIMinNC]

While it may be a smart and prudent clarification, I think it was a not-smart and careless statement in the first place. It could easily be understood to say, we don't see any evidence of asymptomatic spread. What they are really saying though is, we really have no idea about asymptomatic spread. And if that's the case, why say anything? The concerns over asymptomatic spread are a major driving force behind the actions and decisions of governments around the world. That's not a good time to be inarticulate.

I think part of the disconnect stems from a similar dynamic that I see as a member of specialized aviation media when dealing with mainstream public media on technical or specialized topics. The mainstream media is looking for simple straightforward, black-and-white concepts to easily communicate and will latch onto and simplify even nuanced, complex statements.

Some "experts" also don't often do a good job of explaining the nuances of their field to those on the outside, like the public media. Ms. Kerkhove was simply responding to a question and stated that the limited data they have has yet to document significant asymptomatic spread. She probably intuitively understood that fact didn't mean asymptomatic spread had been debunked because she knew the limitations of the data. But that's exactly how the mainstream media, looking for simple concepts, took it. Perhaps she should have been more careful in her wording, but I see those same kinds of disconnects all the time when mainstream media interviews aviation experts after events that cause the public media to suddenly take an interest in aviation.

 

[csodjd]

I think part of the disconnect stems from a similar dynamic that I see as a member of specialized aviation media when dealing with mainstream public media on technical or specialized topics. The mainstream media is looking for simple straightforward, black-and-white concepts to easily communicate and will latch onto and simplify even nuanced, complex statements.

Some "experts" also don't often do a good job of explaining the nuances of their field to those on the outside, like the public media. Ms. Kerkhove was simply responding to a question and stated that the limited data they have has yet to document significant asymptomatic spread. She probably intuitively understood that fact didn't mean asymptomatic spread had been debunked because she knew the limitations of the data. But that's exactly how the mainstream media, looking for simple concepts, took it. Perhaps she should have been more careful in her wording, but I see those same kinds of disconnects all the time when mainstream media interviews aviation experts after events that cause the public media to suddenly take an interest in aviation.

Fair enough... but they aren't rookies, and they know their statements have consequences. She did use the words, "very rare." How is any media supposed to take that?

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

I think part of the disconnect stems from a similar dynamic that I see as a member of specialized aviation media when dealing with mainstream public media on technical or specialized topics. The mainstream media is looking for simple straightforward, black-and-white concepts to easily communicate and will latch onto and simplify even nuanced, complex statements.

Some "experts" also don't often do a good job of explaining the nuances of their field to those on the outside, like the public media. Ms. Kerkhove was simply responding to a question and stated that the limited data they have has yet to document significant asymptomatic spread. She probably intuitively understood that fact didn't mean asymptomatic spread had been debunked because she knew the limitations of the data. But that's exactly how the mainstream media, looking for simple concepts, took it. Perhaps she should have been more careful in her wording, but I see those same kinds of disconnects all the time when mainstream media interviews aviation experts after events that cause the public media to suddenly take an interest in aviation.

Fair enough... but they aren't rookies, and they know their statements have consequences. She did use the words, "very rare." How is any media supposed to take that?

Part of my duties when I worked for a government agencies was providing background information to news reporters. Not only does the media simplify, they will deliberately misstate or misrepresent information to "make a better story". Those are the very words used by the Sacramento bureau chief for a network affiliated when I challenged him on a false narrative in a story that he knew was untrue.

It's all about page views and click-throughs.