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[2020] A little stock market sense

DrQ

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Sometimes I think the entire thing is rigged ...

The rise of the giant fund: How companies like BlackRock and State Street are taking over Wall Street - with some managing assets worth more than the German economy​

  • Assets held by fund manager State Street are higher than the GDP of Germany
  • BlackRock, Fidelity, State Street and Vanguard control $26 trillion in assets
  • Asset managers grew after banks were regulated following the financial crisis
Giant asset managers are becoming the titans of Wall Street and increasing their control over the US financial system.​
Huge investment firms now control twice as many assets as once-dominant US banks - managing sums which rival the economies of large countries across the world, it has been reported.​
Assets held by Boston-based fund manager State Street in 2023 totaled $4.13 trillion, according to The Wall Street Journal.​
 

easyrider

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Delayed but going to happen, imo.

Bill

6 hours ago

U.S. stocks post worst month of 2024 ahead of Amazon earnings, Fed decision​


By Isabel Wang
U.S. stocks closed out April with a whimper as the three major benchmark indexes suffered their worst monthly point and percentage decline of 2024.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 570.17 points, or 1.5%, to end at 37,815.92. It was the largest one-day percentage decline since March 22, 2023. The blue-chip index was down 5% this month, snapping a five-month winning streak and posting its biggest monthly decline since September 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
  • The S&P 500 dropped 80.48 points, or 1.6%, to finish at 5,035.69.
  • The Nasdaq Composite slumped 325.26 points, or 2%, ending at 15,657.82.
  • The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq slumped 4.2% and 4.4% in April, respectively. They recorded their first monthly drop since October and their worst monthly return since September, according to Dow Jones Market Data.



https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia?countrycode=us
 

easyrider

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LOL
For the past 40 years every quarter you've been predicting a stock market collapse
Like a broken clock .... ;)


View attachment 91937

No, I haven't called out anything every quarter Brett. I read Market Watch and other sources that call out a tilt now and then. Currently, they are all calling out a tilt.

Looking at your chart it does look like if a person stays in the market and rides it out they would do well. The problem is the end game for many comes at a dip.

Bill
 

Luvtoride

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Luckily I haven’t had to touch my “later” bucket for years and it has done pretty well.
Best wishes for all and hoping no “sequence of withdrawals “ issues impact your returns.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

WorldT

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No, I haven't called out anything every quarter Brett. I read Market Watch and other sources that call out a tilt now and then. Currently, they are all calling out a tilt.

Looking at your chart it does look like if a person stays in the market and rides it out they would do well. The problem is the end game for many comes at a dip.

Bill
If you are getting close to the point when you will need to extract all or some of your long term investments, then you want to split it or move it over to something stable. For as long as the stock market has existed, at some point there is going to be a dip and a recovery. No one can say for certainty it is going to be tomorrow. If I keep saying SOON, at some point I will be correct. Does that make me an expert?
 

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Nasdaq hits record close​

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/...-data-fed-chair-powell-speech-tap-2024-05-14/

" The tech heavy Nasdaq scored a record closing high on Tuesday and the S&P 500 and the Dow also advanced as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reassured investors while they digested Tuesday's data and waited for Wednesday's crucial consumer inflation report. "
The Nasdaq 100 closed at 18322.77, which is essentially flat from its 18302.90 close on March 1st and

18297.99 on March 7th and

18339.44 on March 22nd and

18307.98 on April 11th.
 

easyrider

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If you are getting close to the point when you will need to extract all or some of your long term investments, then you want to split it or move it over to something stable. For as long as the stock market has existed, at some point there is going to be a dip and a recovery. No one can say for certainty it is going to be tomorrow. If I keep saying SOON, at some point I will be correct. Does that make me an expert?

I get your point but saying that my posts are baseless because the thought doesn't align with your thoughts isn't really a good point. My experience has been the stock market can go either way without much notice and when it goes down, more often than not some one retiring has to change their plans.

I did like playing the stock market but it isn't our main retirement investment. Maybe soon I might go all in after a big correction. That will be my play. In fact, the only reason I watch the market is for that big nut play.

Bill
 

WorldT

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I get your point but saying that my posts are baseless because the thought doesn't align with your thoughts isn't really a good point. My experience has been the stock market can go either way without much notice and when it goes down, more often than not some one retiring has to change their plans.

I did like playing the stock market but it isn't our main retirement investment. Maybe soon I might go all in after a big correction. That will be my play. In fact, the only reason I watch the market is for that big nut play.

Bill
You lost me there because I am pretty sure I didn't say your post was baseless. I was saying that if a person is getting close to retirement, it is not a good idea to be heavy on stocks for the very reason you stated in your post. Which is that you do not want the end of your investment to happen during a downturn.
With regards to the statement about experts. If you turn on the TV or read the news there is always someone who says something is about to drop and someone who says something is going to rise. Who is the correct one? The answer is simple: None. They try the best to analyze something but there is no one that can say for certain which direction anything is going in the immediate timeframe. So if a person keeps saying the market will fall, then at some point they will be right. If another person keeps saying the market will rise, at some point they will also be correct. The market rises and falls.
 

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I have yet to see a time when it made sense to make a long-term bet against America. - Warren Buffett

Sure, it'd be great to get out of stocks at the high and jump back in at the low…. But I've been in this business 55 years and … I not only have never met anybody who knew how to do it, I've never met anybody who had met anybody who knew how to do it. - Jack Bogle

Predictions are hard, especially about the futue. - Yogi Berra

permabears are so boring - me
 

ScoopKona

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permabears are so boring - me

Krugman had a great column about this -- seems that it's been taken down pretty much everywhere. But he went in depth about permabears. The piece was titled "Fine Austrian Whines." It tackles the von Mises "institute," at length.
 

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The Nasdaq 100 closed at 18322.77, which is essentially flat from its 18302.90 close on March 1st and

18297.99 on March 7th and

18339.44 on March 22nd and

18307.98 on April 11th.

Your original post in this thread isn't ageing like a fine wine... :)
 

CO skier

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Your original post in this thread isn't ageing like a fine wine... :)
You need to read beyond post #1.

I sold everything with a click of a button, then dollar cost averaged into QID over two days. Sold the QID today at the click of a button for a 39% gain in less than two weeks -- no reason to get greedy. Now I will sit in cash until this selloff reaches the 40% mark, and start to dollar cost average back into the market for the upside swing. If the market does not sell off to the 40% level, I will get back into the market when it moves upward 10% on low volatility from the lows.
... and that is exactly what I did.

"If you know your stuff, go ahead and buy when others aren't, and don't be afraid to sell when others are buying." -- Warren Buffett
 

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You need to read beyond post #1.


... and that is exactly what I did.

"If you know your stuff, go ahead and buy when others aren't, and don't be afraid to sell when others are buying." -- Warren Buffett
Why bother buying and selling at all. None of us know when the best time is to buy and sell. Just pick an asset allocation that works for your risk tolerance and ignore if stocks/bonds are high/low.
 

ScoopKona

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Why bother buying and selling at all. None of us know when the best time is to buy and sell. Just pick an asset allocation that works for your risk tolerance and ignore if stocks/bonds are high/low.
I'll take a stab at this. I'm near the end of my dance with the stock market. I have much better investment opportunities. So, I'll wait for a spike and sell -- and then promise not to kick myself if it spikes again into the ionosphere. The investments I can make into myself will pay far better returns (short and long term) than any index is capable of. (Part of the plan, after all.)

At the end of the day, we all want to buy low and sell high. It's just a question of "how optimal was it?"
 

TolmiePeak

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Really, just look at the chart and use common sense!

I am curious what you mean when you write this statement? Can you explain it? Isn't it common sense to ignore the charts?
 

ScoopKona

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Why? Just sell now and don't worry about it spiking or collapsing.

I'm dealing with a planning department which is [redacted]. I'll hold until I no longer want to hold. And then sell when the entrails look favorable. I agree with Warren, "Why would anyone bet long-term against the US?"
 

letsgobobby

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At the end of the day, we all want to buy low and sell high. It's just a question of "how optimal was it?"
Not I. I buy and buy and buy, and plan to never sell. Price does not matter to me. I hold 75% stock indexes, 25% bond indexes, and some real estate. The end.

Our favorite holding period is forever. - Warren Buffett
 
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