• The TUGBBS forums are completely free and open to the public and exist as the absolute best place for owners to get help and advice about their timeshares for more than 30 years!

    Join Tens of Thousands of other Owners just like you here to get any and all Timeshare questions answered 24 hours a day!
  • TUG started 30 years ago in October 1993 as a group of regular Timeshare owners just like you!

    Read about our 30th anniversary: Happy 30th Birthday TUG!
  • TUG has a YouTube Channel to produce weekly short informative videos on popular Timeshare topics!

    Free memberships for every 50 subscribers!

    Visit TUG on Youtube!
  • TUG has now saved timeshare owners more than $21,000,000 dollars just by finding us in time to rescind a new Timeshare purchase! A truly incredible milestone!

    Read more here: TUG saves owners more than $21 Million dollars
  • Sign up to get the TUG Newsletter for free!

    60,000+ subscribing owners! A weekly recap of the best Timeshare resort reviews and the most popular topics discussed by owners!
  • Our official "end my sales presentation early" T-shirts are available again! Also come with the option for a free membership extension with purchase to offset the cost!

    All T-shirt options here!
  • A few of the most common links here on the forums for newbies and guests!

[2020] A little stock market sense

CO skier

TUG Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2012
Messages
4,195
Reaction score
2,427
Location
Colorado
Yikes, I guess I can consider myself fortunate. My wife (75 YO) is in a Memory Care facility at $257 a day. A lot less than 11K a month.
Yikes! $257 a day is A LOT -- $8,250/month, not exactly on a relative basis, "A lot less than $11k a month."
 

CO skier

TUG Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2012
Messages
4,195
Reaction score
2,427
Location
Colorado

Dow Jones hits an all-time high as investors cheer progress on inflation​



I hope everyone hasn't had a bunch of money sitting on the side waiting for the big drop!

Kurt
I have made a killing in the stock market (up and down) over the past 20 years. It is time to lock-in those profits, and buy hi-yield corporate bonds to hold until maturity. Day-to-day fluctations, in the stock or bond markets, do not matter that way; and leave a pile of money for my heirs.
 

CO skier

TUG Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2012
Messages
4,195
Reaction score
2,427
Location
Colorado

Dow Jones hits an all-time high as investors cheer progress on inflation​



I hope everyone hasn't had a bunch of money sitting on the side waiting for the big drop!

Kurt
... and let us not forget the Dow Jones closed at an all-time high on October 9, 2007 before plunging 54% to a close of 6469.95 on March 6, 2009. Not to say a repeat is in the tea leaves, but s..t happens in the stock market. I, for one, do not intend to get splattered in my retirement years.
 

CalGalTraveler

TUG Review Crew: Veteran
TUG Member
Joined
Dec 21, 2014
Messages
10,096
Reaction score
8,678
Location
California
Resorts Owned
HGVC, MVC Vistana
In addition to from taking some winnings off of the table, I am considering trailing stop losses for the remaining stock portions of our portfolio so we lock in a base amount of gain should the market plunge again. I view this as insurance for these recent gains and an alternative to cashing out into bonds. Trailing stop-losses offer the potential of market upside without the downside stock market risk.

What do you consider a reasonable percentage drop or trigger percentage for cash out to set for a stop-loss for an S&P 500 or Total Stock Market Index ETF? Has anyone analyzed the volatility of these indices to determine an optimal percentage?

Another option is to ladder our stop-losses at different price percentages but still need to set good trigger prices. Not all retirement plans will allow trailing stop-losses to be set but will do so in plans like Schwab where we can apply them.
 
Last edited:

jorcus

TUG Member
Joined
Feb 2, 2022
Messages
216
Reaction score
219
Location
Buffalo NY
In addition to from taking some winnings off of the table, I am considering trailing stop losses for the remaining stock portions of our portfolio so we lock in a base amount of gain should the market plunge again. I view this as insurance for these recent gains and an alternative to cashing out into bonds. Trailing stop-losses offer the potential of market upside without the downside stock market risk.

What do you consider a reasonable percentage drop or trigger percentage for cash out to set for a stop-loss for an S&P 500 or Total Stock Market Index ETF? Has anyone analyzed the volatility of these indices to determine an optimal percentage?

Another option is to ladder our stop-losses at different price percentages but still need to set good trigger prices. Not all retirement plans will allow trailing stop-losses to be set but will do so in plans like Schwab where we can apply them.


I tend to view stop losses as a way to protect money you need in the short term. I assume by your post the money you are protecting is within a tax deferred account. If that is the case at least there is not an immediate tax consequence to an unexpected sell off of assets. I encourage consideration tax burden on any asset move as I have spoken to a number of family or friends who have gotten tax shocks by moving a pile of money to investment advisors or cashing out Ira / 401ks all at once.

Another thing to consider is that a market collapses in 2 ways, suddenly or overtime. The two most recent examples were onset of covid and post covid interest rate normalization. During the onset of covid March 2020 there was sudden market drop but there was a sharp rebound. It only took a few weeks to recover and the market went way up after that. If you sold all your positions at that time due to stop losses it would not have been a good thing.

Then in Jan 2022 as interest rates started to climb we went though a more orderly decline but we are just getting back to the highs now. So having stop losses in this scenario may have been helpful.

To sum it up I would suggest making a normal budget, make a disaster budget (unexpected health care costs etc.). Now determining what you need plan accordingly for the next segments of your life. If you need to portion out some accounts to meet those needs for the next 3 or 4 years and feel comfortable having the protection of stop losses it's certainly an option. I would avoid doing this to your whole portfolio so it is not an all or nothing scenario.
 

CalGalTraveler

TUG Review Crew: Veteran
TUG Member
Joined
Dec 21, 2014
Messages
10,096
Reaction score
8,678
Location
California
Resorts Owned
HGVC, MVC Vistana
I tend to view stop losses as a way to protect money you need in the short term. I assume by your post the money you are protecting is within a tax deferred account. If that is the case at least there is not an immediate tax consequence to an unexpected sell off of assets. I encourage consideration tax burden on any asset move as I have spoken to a number of family or friends who have gotten tax shocks by moving a pile of money to investment advisors or cashing out Ira / 401ks all at once.

Another thing to consider is that a market collapses in 2 ways, suddenly or overtime. The two most recent examples were onset of covid and post covid interest rate normalization. During the onset of covid March 2020 there was sudden market drop but there was a sharp rebound. It only took a few weeks to recover and the market went way up after that. If you sold all your positions at that time due to stop losses it would not have been a good thing.

Then in Jan 2022 as interest rates started to climb we went though a more orderly decline but we are just getting back to the highs now. So having stop losses in this scenario may have been helpful.

To sum it up I would suggest making a normal budget, make a disaster budget (unexpected health care costs etc.). Now determining what you need plan accordingly for the next segments of your life. If you need to portion out some accounts to meet those needs for the next 3 or 4 years and feel comfortable having the protection of stop losses it's certainly an option. I would avoid doing this to your whole portfolio so it is not an all or nothing scenario.
Yes, these are retirement account so no tax consequences.

Good point about Covid sharp drop and then rebound. Covid is a once in a century event IMHO.

Good thought on budgeting and setting stop losses to protect only what is needed for next 3 - 5 years.. We have about 45% of portfolio in fixed bond, CD and money market investments so we could live on those if the market dropped.

I find that one of the challenges with investing is not to let the pursuit of perfection be the enemy of good enough.
 
Last edited:

artringwald

TUG Review Crew
TUG Member
Joined
Apr 22, 2011
Messages
4,812
Reaction score
3,818
Location
Oakdale, MN
Resorts Owned
HVC: The Point at Poipu, 3 deeded weeks, 1 of which is in The Club.
I have 5 broad based mutual funds in a retirement account, with equal amounts in each fund. If one goes up by 5% or more, I sell enough to get it back to the starting point. If it goes down by 5% or more, I buy enough to get it back to the starting point. It's called couch potato investing. It's only useful for money you won't need in the short term.

For money I might need sooner, I put it all in a money market fund. Of course, right now they're paying around 5%.

I also put a small amount of money into a brokerage account for my impulsive purchases of individual stocks. Sometimes I make good decisions, and sometimes I don't, but I don't want to risk much.
 

MULTIZ321

TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
31,719
Reaction score
9,165
Location
FT. LAUDERDALE, FL
Resorts Owned
BLUEWATER BY SPINNAKER HHI
ROYAL HOLIDAY CLUB RHC (POINTS)

CO skier

TUG Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2012
Messages
4,195
Reaction score
2,427
Location
Colorado
Another "S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrat" (companies that have raised their dividend for at least 25 consecutive years) bites the dust.

Walgreeens (WBA) raised its dividend for 47 consecutive years. It recently slashed its dividend by almost half. It is a member of the Dow 30 Industrials Average, but probably not for much longer.

Walgreens delivered negative total returns over the past 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year periods.
 

Tia

TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
3,397
Reaction score
505
I made the decision when I retired. My answer was zero. Foregoing appreciation was immaterial. Avoiding the mental anguish from market gyrations was paramount. I am still happy with my decision...
I miss this posters posts, my computer took me back to the first posts when I clicked to read this morning
 

jorcus

TUG Member
Joined
Feb 2, 2022
Messages
216
Reaction score
219
Location
Buffalo NY

letsgobobby

TUG Member
Joined
Dec 18, 2009
Messages
1,325
Reaction score
714
Resorts Owned
HGVC - Lagoon, W57th, MarBrisa, Paradise
"Sell now to protect your retirement and reinvest at much lower levels. " That is an important point that I included in my original post.


I have three accounts. The bulk of my retirement savings is in a self-directed IRA rollover of various employer 401Ks over the years; a Roth IRA; a basic brokerage account. When the Nasdaq 100 crossed below the 10-day average on February 21, I sold them all at 3 p.m. Mountain Time, when it looked like it would close below the 10-day average. I invested 50% of the rollover IRA into QID at 15:42:03 for $19.9999/share.

On February 25 at 11:22:32, my QID limit order for the other 50% of the rollover account filled at $22.0999. I entered the order because it looked like there was legs to the downside. I was confident enough that the market was headed lower, but I know there are never guarantees.

I intended to buy more QID over the next and following day using the other two accounts, but the market moved too fast, and I did not want to chase it. They remained in cash the whole time.


The current market is waaaay overdue for a short-covering bounce, and especially from these support levels. Which is why I did not hesitate to sell into the oversold conditions of a one-day, 10% sell off (20% gain for me). Plus, a 39% gain in a few weeks is a once in a lifetime trade; it will only happen to the downside. I am a firm believer in the old Wall Street adage that, "Bulls make money, Bears make money; Pigs get slaughtered."

A 10% bounce happened yesterday (Friday), but it looked like a hit job in the last hour from the Plunge Protection Team. I have no confidence in the sustainability. It looked like a gift to sell out for those who were burned by the Thursday sell off.

Bounce back to new highs? Not for years.


We are living through unprecedented times. There were no grocery store buying panics in the 2008 financial crisis. I think we will see in this current bear market, a 14% sell off in one day that triggers a second-in-the-day timeout for stock trading. With the news feed over this weekend, it may happen on Monday. The US government is step-wise shutting down the American economy. If the Mexico and Canadian borders close, that would also likely trigger a massive sell off. This is no time to have any money at risk to the long side in the stock market, especially considering how overpriced it STILL is. jmo, and that is how I am protecting my retirement.

The economic impact and financial panic will be 1,000 times worse than the Corona virus disease.
this didn't age well. neither did the OP or lots of the replies which followed.

buy and hold forever. 75% stocks. low cost index funds. has worked well for us, I've been investing since the 80s . If you can time the market and see the fiture good for you. 99.9% of people can't do that and no one needs to do that.

After 27 pages of predictions almost everyone reading this thread would have been better off on March 11 just holding on. S&P500 has basically doubled since then, 100% gain. Great four years.
 

rapmarks

TUG Review Crew: Elite
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
9,831
Reaction score
5,026
this didn't age well. neither did the OP or lots of the replies which followed.

buy and hold forever. 75% stocks. low cost index funds. has worked well for us, I've been investing since the 80s . If you can time the market and see the fiture good for you. 99.9% of people can't do that and no one needs to do that.

After 27 pages of predictions almost everyone reading this thread would have been better off on March 11 just holding on. S&P500 has basically doubled since then, 100% gain. Great four years.
When I opened this thread, it went to the first page. I said what? Why is he selling? Then I saw the date.
I am in the buy and hold camp also.
in June, I will have been retired 25 years. I did not get rid of equities when I retired. My account is now worth 13 times what it was when I retired. I have made changes, but I still Have big holdings in equities. I don’t need income, so I invest for growth.
 

PigsDad

TUG Member
Joined
Nov 1, 2006
Messages
10,149
Reaction score
7,196
Location
Colorado and SW Florida
Resorts Owned
HGVC Elite: SeaWorld, Surf Club, Charter Club, Valdoro
When I opened this thread, it went to the first page. I said what? Why is he selling? Then I saw the date.
I am in the buy and hold camp also.
in June, I will have been retired 25 years. I did not get rid of equities when I retired. My account is now worth 13 times what it was when I retired. I have made changes, but I still Have big holdings in equities. I don’t need income, so I invest for growth.
Fantastic job! Congratulations!!

Kurt
 

letsgobobby

TUG Member
Joined
Dec 18, 2009
Messages
1,325
Reaction score
714
Resorts Owned
HGVC - Lagoon, W57th, MarBrisa, Paradise
Hindsight is 20/20. Anyone can do that.
trying to predict the future is a fool's errand, There are hundreds of studies showing the wisdom of passive investing, modern portfolio theory/diversification, the efficient market hypothesis, and low cost index funds. 20/20 hindsight is not necessary.
 

easyrider

TUG Review Crew: Elite
TUG Member
Joined
Aug 21, 2005
Messages
15,589
Reaction score
8,468
Location
Palm Springs of Washinton
Resorts Owned
Worldmark * * Villa Del Palmar UVCI * * Vacation Internationale*
Hindsight is 20/20. Anyone can do that.

Many large investment groups, politicians and billionaires have been dumping in the past couple of weeks. It's because they know, imo.

Bill
 

MULTIZ321

TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
31,719
Reaction score
9,165
Location
FT. LAUDERDALE, FL
Resorts Owned
BLUEWATER BY SPINNAKER HHI
ROYAL HOLIDAY CLUB RHC (POINTS)
6 Dividend Kings To Buy Now For Secure Dividend Growth




Richard
 

Tia

TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
3,397
Reaction score
505
Hindsight is 20/20. Anyone can do that.
Yep I'm wishing I'd kept my Exxon XOM stock , didn't have that much but bought at $34 now over $100. Dang
 

easyrider

TUG Review Crew: Elite
TUG Member
Joined
Aug 21, 2005
Messages
15,589
Reaction score
8,468
Location
Palm Springs of Washinton
Resorts Owned
Worldmark * * Villa Del Palmar UVCI * * Vacation Internationale*
Things are lining up for a possible crash tomorrow. It might be that the expectation of tomorrows bad pce inflation report is why. It probably looks like consumers are tapped out.

Bill
 

PigsDad

TUG Member
Joined
Nov 1, 2006
Messages
10,149
Reaction score
7,196
Location
Colorado and SW Florida
Resorts Owned
HGVC Elite: SeaWorld, Surf Club, Charter Club, Valdoro
Things are lining up for a possible crash tomorrow. It might be that the expectation of tomorrows bad pce inflation report is why. It probably looks like consumers are tapped out.

Bill
stock.jpg


I guess not (at least not today).

Kurt
 
Top