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[2020] A little stock market sense

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For those are listening to those who like a 60/40 plan, I am not going to tell you that is bad advice. Because it is not especially if you are not willing to put in the 5 minutes a day, rebalancing (NOT MARKET TIMING) your account like I do.

But it is not safe proof as people claim. Yesterday I pointed out that like the index 500, all 11 sectors of the 500 fell and that 7 of the 11 did better then the 500 index. I also pointed out how half of my Treasury ETF's fell.

But I did not mention corporate bonds because I do not use them except for a high yield which has a bull and bear. Treasuries provide me better protection and I have rising rate Treasury funds that went up yesterday.

So, I was curious how corporate bonds did yesterday. I knew the answer before looking. This is what I found.
SPIB down 0.24%
USIG down 0.34%
IGIB down 0.27%
SPBO down 0.35%
SUSC down 0.35%

So, a 60/40 will not protect you in a crash especially if your luck in life ends and a disaster requires you to take out the money at a loss. But in the long run if your luck holds and you can ride out a crash, you will be ok.
 
RENTER said:
For those are listening to those who like a 60/40 plan, I am not going to tell you that is bad advice. Because it is not especially if you are not willing to put in the 5 minutes a day, rebalancing (NOT MARKET TIMING) your account like I do.

But it is not safe proof as people claim. Yesterday I pointed out that like the index 500, all 11 sectors of the 500 fell and that 7 of the 11 did better then the 500 index. I also pointed out how half of my Treasury ETF's fell.

But I did not mention corporate bonds because I do not use them except for a high yield which has a bull and bear. Treasuries provide me better protection and I have rising rate Treasury funds that went up yesterday.

So, I was curious how corporate bonds did yesterday. I knew the answer before looking. This is what I found.
SPIB down 0.24%
USIG down 0.34%
IGIB down 0.27%
SPBO down 0.35%
SUSC down 0.35%

So, a 60/40 will not protect you in a crash especially if your luck in life ends and a disaster requires you to take out the money at a loss. But in the long run if your luck holds and you can ride out a crash, you will be ok.
Click to expand...
why do you think buying and selling will protect you in a crash ?

🍿
 
letsgobobby said:
why do you think buying and selling will protect you in a crash ?

🍿
Click to expand...
Because my buying and selling keeps me at 50/50 bull vs bear and not a 50/50 stock vs bond. A 50/50 or 60/40 stock vs bond will still fall and maybe by 30%.

My bears will soar while my bulls will not. The dividends and interest I earn will allow me to buy the falling bulls. The gains from my bears will allow me to buy the falling bulls.

Market timing is guessing the top and bottom of the market which I do not do. I play catch the falling knifes and keep buying until the market turns around because I will always have winners to buy the losers. Since I mainly buy the sectors, my losers will always come back and if they don't we are all dead anyway because that is the reason so many stocks will never return.

With 50/50 I have gains in both a bull and bear market by giving up big gains in a bull market for little gains while having little gains in a bear market. Thus producing an average between 10 and 11% over a BULL AND BEAR CYCLE. While I am still standing after a crash, those who dropped 50% will need a 100% return to get to even.

So, I am not giving up any long-term return unless I want to gamble and put it all on few stocks which would be a cold day in hell before I do that. Many who do, do beat me badly in the short term. But success goes to their heads and get greedy wanting more and do not want to sell to pay taxes if it is a non-retirement account. So they hang on to long and get clobbered.

In the meantime with a 50/50, I can play the tax loss harvesting game. Because I will always have losers.
 
RENTER said:
Because my buying and selling keeps me at 50/50 bull vs bear and not a 50/50 stock vs bond. A 50/50 or 60/40 stock vs bond will still fall and maybe by 30%.

My bears will soar while my bulls will not. The dividends and interest I earn will allow me to buy the falling bulls. The gains from my bears will allow me to buy the falling bulls.

Market timing is guessing the top and bottom of the market which I do not do. I play catch the falling knifes and keep buying until the market turns around because I will always have winners to buy the losers. Since I mainly buy the sectors, my losers will always come back and if they don't we are all dead anyway because that is the reason so many stocks will never return.

With 50/50 I have gains in both a bull and bear market by giving up big gains in a bull market for little gains while having little gains in a bear market. Thus producing an average between 10 and 11% over a BULL AND BEAR CYCLE. While I am still standing after a crash, those who dropped 50% will need a 100% return to get to even.

So, I am not giving up any long-term return unless I want to gamble and put it all on few stocks which would be a cold day in hell before I do that. Many who do, do beat me badly in the short term. But success goes to their heads and get greedy wanting more and do not want to sell to pay taxes if it is a non-retirement account. So they hang on to long and get clobbered.

In the meantime with a 50/50, I can play the tax loss harvesting game. Because I will always have losers.
Click to expand...
what is "a bull" and "a bear"?

🍿🍿🍿
 
RENTER said:
Because my buying and selling keeps me at 50/50 bull vs bear and not a 50/50 stock vs bond. A 50/50 or 60/40 stock vs bond will still fall and maybe by 30%.

My bears will soar while my bulls will not. The dividends and interest I earn will allow me to buy the falling bulls. The gains from my bears will allow me to buy the falling bulls.

Market timing is guessing the top and bottom of the market which I do not do. I play catch the falling knifes and keep buying until the market turns around because I will always have winners to buy the losers. Since I mainly buy the sectors, my losers will always come back and if they don't we are all dead anyway because that is the reason so many stocks will never return.

With 50/50 I have gains in both a bull and bear market by giving up big gains in a bull market for little gains while having little gains in a bear market. Thus producing an average between 10 and 11% over a BULL AND BEAR CYCLE. While I am still standing after a crash, those who dropped 50% will need a 100% return to get to even.

So, I am not giving up any long-term return unless I want to gamble and put it all on few stocks which would be a cold day in hell before I do that. Many who do, do beat me badly in the short term. But success goes to their heads and get greedy wanting more and do not want to sell to pay taxes if it is a non-retirement account. So they hang on to long and get clobbered.

In the meantime with a 50/50, I can play the tax loss harvesting game. Because I will always have losers.
Click to expand...


Actually no, "market timing is buying or selling financial assets by attempting to predict future market price movements"


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_timing


.
fnd_1.jpg

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/02/business/stock-market-index-funds.html
 
letsgobobby said:
what is "a bull" and "a bear"?

🍿🍿🍿
Click to expand...
when you buy a stock, index, bond, ETF, or Mutual Fund, most people buy them expecting them to go up. Those are the bulls. You can buy the same thing as a bear which means I buy them expecting them go down. I buy both to get to my 50/50.

The close minded will whine that you cannot grow like that. Yeah for the first minute. My goal is .04% a day or 0.20% a week which comes out to 10.4% a year. My example of the other day with Palantir shows how I can make that goal. my bull soared and my bear got crushed for a 0.11% gain for the day.

I do not sit on my laurels and pound my chest. I get those profits out of there quickly an get back to the minimum I want in Palantir. I will take half and park it in the bear and the other half into a treasury floating rate fund that pays over 4% interest. Once again helping me make my goal.

I have 288 investments. All but 45 have a bull and bear. Those 45, I put an equal amount into bears by dividing it by 3 and putting a third each into a Dow bear, a Nasdaq bear and an index 500 bear.

I have all 71 stocks in the 500 financial sector and hedge it with an equal amount in a financial bear ETF. Same story with the 22 energy stocks vs an energy bear and the 31 real estate stocks vs a real estate bear. All rich in dividends that help me make my goal. Also many times they hedge against each other.

I hedge my treasuries with short term vs long term vs rising rate funds which are the bear funds. I also have a bull and bear for each of the magnificent 7, Bitcoin, gold and Cathie Woods Arkk.

Took me 6 hours to set it up and 5 minutes a day to keep it as close to 50/50 as I can.

Now because I play the bull and bear game, I will always have losers. So I can take advantage of the tax laws and create paper losses which is called tax harvesting. I can offset my gains with the laws as long as I do not buy the same investment within 31 days. That is called the wash rules.

So if I sell the loser, for 31 days it screws up my 50/50 allocation. However I can buy something else that helps me keep that 50/50 allocation then sell that and buy back the other in 31 days.

All this from a guy who a person said does not understand investment tenets.
 
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RENTER said:
when you buy a stock, index, bond, ETF, or Mutual Fund, most people buy them expecting them to go up. Those are the bulls. You can buy the same thing as a bear which means I buy them expecting them go down. I buy both to get to my 50/50.

The close minded will whine that you cannot grow like that. Yeah for the first minute. My goal is .04% a day or 0.20% a week which comes out to 10.4% a year. My example of the other day with Palantir shows how I can make that goal. my bull soared and my bear got crushed for a 0.11% gain for the day.

I do not sit on my laurels and pound my chest. I get those profits out of there quickly an get back to the minimum I want in Palantir. I will take half and park it in the bear and the other half into a treasury floating rate fund that pays over 4% interest. Once again helping me make my goal.

I have 288 investments. All but 45 have a bull and bear. Those 45, I put an equal amount into bears by dividing it by 3 and putting a third each into a Dow bear, a Nasdaq bear and an index 500 bear.

I have all 71 stocks in the 500 financial sector and hedge it with an equal amount in a financial bear ETF. Same story with the 22 energy stocks vs an energy bear and the 31 real estate stocks vs a real estate bear. All rich in dividends that help me make my goal. Also many times they hedge against each other.

I hedge my treasuries with short term vs long term vs rising rate funds which are the bear funds. I also have a bull and bear for each of the magnificent 7, Bitcoin, gold and Cathie Woods Arkk.

Took me 6 hours to set it up and 5 minutes a day to keep it as close to 50/50 as I can.

Now because I play the bull and bear game, I will always have losers. So I can take advantage of the tax laws and create paper losses which is called tax harvesting. I can offset my gains with the laws as long as I do not buy the same investment within 31 days. That is called the wash rules.

So if I sell the loser, for 31 days it screws up my 50/50 allocation. However I can buy something else that helps me keep that 50/50 allocation then sell that and buy back the other in 31 days.

All this from a guy who a person said does not understand investment tenets.
Click to expand...
You said this was in an ira account, how do you harvest losses in an ira. You said this many many pages ago when I asked about tax liability with all the daily buying and selling.
I also cannot figure out how you never have any bad picks.
 
RENTER said:
when you buy a stock, index, bond, ETF, or Mutual Fund, most people buy them expecting them to go up. Those are the bulls. You can buy the same thing as a bear which means I buy them expecting them go down. I buy both to get to my 50/50.

The close minded will whine that you cannot grow like that. Yeah for the first minute. My goal is .04% a day or 0.20% a week which comes out to 10.4% a year. My example of the other day with Palantir shows how I can make that goal. my bull soared and my bear got crushed for a 0.11% gain for the day.

I do not sit on my laurels and pound my chest. I get those profits out of there quickly an get back to the minimum I want in Palantir. I will take half and park it in the bear and the other half into a treasury floating rate fund that pays over 4% interest. Once again helping me make my goal.

I have 288 investments. All but 45 have a bull and bear. Those 45, I put an equal amount into bears by dividing it by 3 and putting a third each into a Dow bear, a Nasdaq bear and an index 500 bear.

I have all 71 stocks in the 500 financial sector and hedge it with an equal amount in a financial bear ETF. Same story with the 22 energy stocks vs an energy bear and the 31 real estate stocks vs a real estate bear. All rich in dividends that help me make my goal. Also many times they hedge against each other.

I hedge my treasuries with short term vs long term vs rising rate funds which are the bear funds. I also have a bull and bear for each of the magnificent 7, Bitcoin, gold and Cathie Woods Arkk.

Took me 6 hours to set it up and 5 minutes a day to keep it as close to 50/50 as I can.

Now because I play the bull and bear game, I will always have losers. So I can take advantage of the tax laws and create paper losses which is called tax harvesting. I can offset my gains with the laws as long as I do not buy the same investment within 31 days. That is called the wash rules.

So if I sell the loser, for 31 days it screws up my 50/50 allocation. However I can buy something else that helps me keep that 50/50 allocation then sell that and buy back the other in 31 days.

All this from a guy who a person said does not understand investment tenets.
Click to expand...
What is momentum?

🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿
 
rapmarks said:
You said this was in an ira account, how do you harvest losses in an ira. You said this many many pages ago when I asked about tax liability with all the daily buying and selling.
I also cannot figure out how you never have any bad picks.
Click to expand...
you don't in a IRA or Roth. My family also have a brokerage account in addition to the ira. And obviously if I am harvesting tax losses then I have losers. But they are not bad picks because they come back sometime in the cycle. Also they are not picks. Having as much as possible matching a bull and bear is not picking an investment
 
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letsgobobby said:
What is momentum?

🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿
Click to expand...
stocks ripping like Nivida was and now Palantir is. The magnificent 7 were considered momentum stocks. Those investors do not care if they are overvalued. They jump in after liftoff to catch the tail end of the ride. They look for those stocks that are trading above their moving average and expect the ride to continue
 
RENTER said:
you don't in a IRA or Roth. My family also have a brokerage account in addition to the ira. And obviously if I am harvesting tax losses then I have losers. But they are not bad picks because they come back sometime in the cycle. Also they are not picks. Having as much as possible matching a bull and bear is not picking an investment
Click to expand...
How do you choose which stocks are in your portfolio?. You say they are not picks. How did they get in your portfolio?
 
RENTER said:
stocks ripping like Nivida was and now Palantir is. The magnificent 7 were considered momentum stocks. Those investors do not care if they are overvalued. They jump in after liftoff to catch the tail end of the ride. They look for those stocks that are trading above their moving average and expect the ride to continue
Click to expand...
is momentum an investable factor?

1739075010398.png
 
rapmarks said:
How do you choose which stocks are in your portfolio?. You say they are not picks. How did they get in your portfolio?
Click to expand...
covering every index, sector, subsector and individual stocks that has a bear to match is not picking, it is covering your ass
 
I shake my head wondering why some do not understand my system. A system that I taught to the children of my family and now my 13-year-old niece. To the point they question why spend all that money on college when they can do this,

So I strongly recommend that if you cannot understand my simple common-sense system that you listen to hotdog man. He does not give you bad advice Just be prepared to take a 30% hit at any time that comes out of nowhere. Even if you are in a target fund of a 60/40 or balanced fund which you may think are safe.

In the end we will come out to the same place as long as you do not have to sell during that 30% drop. You will take the rollercoaster ride and I will take the turtle walk.
 
RENTER said:
when you buy a stock, index, bond, ETF, or Mutual Fund, most people buy them expecting them to go up. Those are the bulls. You can buy the same thing as a bear which means I buy them expecting them go down. I buy both to get to my 50/50.

The close minded will whine that you cannot grow like that. Yeah for the first minute. My goal is .04% a day or 0.20% a week which comes out to 10.4% a year. My example of the other day with Palantir shows how I can make that goal. my bull soared and my bear got crushed for a 0.11% gain for the day.

I do not sit on my laurels and pound my chest. I get those profits out of there quickly an get back to the minimum I want in Palantir. I will take half and park it in the bear and the other half into a treasury floating rate fund that pays over 4% interest. Once again helping me make my goal.

I have 288 investments. All but 45 have a bull and bear. Those 45, I put an equal amount into bears by dividing it by 3 and putting a third each into a Dow bear, a Nasdaq bear and an index 500 bear.

I have all 71 stocks in the 500 financial sector and hedge it with an equal amount in a financial bear ETF. Same story with the 22 energy stocks vs an energy bear and the 31 real estate stocks vs a real estate bear. All rich in dividends that help me make my goal. Also many times they hedge against each other.

I hedge my treasuries with short term vs long term vs rising rate funds which are the bear funds. I also have a bull and bear for each of the magnificent 7, Bitcoin, gold and Cathie Woods Arkk.

Took me 6 hours to set it up and 5 minutes a day to keep it as close to 50/50 as I can.

Now because I play the bull and bear game, I will always have losers. So I can take advantage of the tax laws and create paper losses which is called tax harvesting. I can offset my gains with the laws as long as I do not buy the same investment within 31 days. That is called the wash rules.

So if I sell the loser, for 31 days it screws up my 50/50 allocation. However I can buy something else that helps me keep that 50/50 allocation then sell that and buy back the other in 31 days.

All this from a guy who a person said does not understand investment tenets.
Click to expand...
RENTER said:
I shake my head wondering why some do not understand my system. A system that I taught to the children of my family and now my 13-year-old niece. To the point they question why spend all that money on college when they can do this,

So I strongly recommend that if you cannot understand my simple common-sense system that you listen to hotdog man. He does not give you bad advice Just be prepared to take a 30% hit at any time that comes out of nowhere. Even if you are in a target fund of a 60/40 or balanced fund which you may think are safe.

In the end we will come out to the same place as long as you do not have to sell during that 30% drop. You will take the rollercoaster ride and I will take the turtle walk.
Click to expand...


Nope, investors do not purchase index funds expecting them to always "go up"
(and some go to college ;)
.

index.jpg


https://www.nl.vanguard/professiona...ction/four-reasons-to-invest-with-index-funds
.
fnd_1.jpg
 
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The more I read,the more inane it gets.
 
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RENTER said:
I don't know because I never studied it because I will never do it
Click to expand...
Brett said:
Nope, investors do not purchase index funds expecting them to always "go up"
(and some go to college ;)
.

View attachment 105821

https://www.nl.vanguard/professiona...ction/four-reasons-to-invest-with-index-funds
.
View attachment 105822
Click to expand...
Will disagree with you again. A lot of people think the stock market is a straight up ride and are shocked as the 60/40 and Target Fund people when they learn it is not. Those are not informed people. Just sheep that follow others.

Just like many of these kids with the smart phone today. I watched them make trades because the smart phone told them their friends were making the trade without knowing why they are making the trade.
 
Brett said:
Nope, investors do not purchase index funds expecting them to always "go up"
(and some go to college ;)
.

View attachment 105821

https://www.nl.vanguard/professiona...ction/four-reasons-to-invest-with-index-funds
.
View attachment 105822
Click to expand...
Oh and by the way for college, how many people suffered because colleges did not teach their future bankers about interest rate risks and those banks failed several years ago. Because of the low interest rates that kept the market up, they were all piled into long term bonds trying to make a high interest rate. Has no clue what happens when interest rates rise. I forget how many banks failed.

Same thing with parents spending all this money on sports trying to get a scholarship. If they invested the money and did not screw up, the kid did not need to go to college. But I should not complain, that is the majority of my renters that makes some timeshare rent haters hate me also.

Off course I am talking about the average person and not the elite snobs who live in a different world and go to the Ivy League so they can bail each other out.
 
In the battle of RELIGION vs over-bearing over-confidence in marginal knowledge ... WHO WINS?????????????????????
This has been a question for 2000 yrs in areas far more fundamental and broader than the equity market or "investing".
 
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