[2020] A little stock market sense

[RENTER]

Actually people don't get "clobbered" with a 60/40 investment portfolio - fixed income investments like CD's (certificates of deposit) gov't notes, bills, short-term AAA rated corporate bonds have very low volatility

Why?
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Yes, you are right but most people will do a balance index. Vanguard Balance Index lost 22% in 2008 and the category lost 28%. In 2022 it lost 16%. During 2001 and 2002 it lost 17%. Petty sure most people who lose their jobs or their homes to natural causes cannot afford a 22% hit. Not everyone can ride out a storm like you can.

 

[RENTER]

since this thread was started the stock market is up 150% in five years. it's astounding how accurately a very bearish post predicted one of the greatest bull markets of the last generation.

meanwhile some folks are excited about gaining 10% per year. they have about half the money of people who have just bought the market and done... nothing.

How many of you know over the years a person like this who mocks you for being conservative and protecting your assets only to watch them get wiped out. I know many myself personally. Many corporate and tech snobs who thought they were smarter than the rest of us. I will take my 10% a year and get to the same place without the rollercoaster ride.

 

[RENTER]

Actually people don't get "clobbered" with a 60/40 investment portfolio - fixed income investments like CD's (certificates of deposit) gov't notes, bills, short-term AAA rated corporate bonds have very low volatility

Why?
.



View attachment 106213

Also if people did it my way and slice it up, instead of taking a 22% loss in 2008 with the Vanguard Balance Index and they did not have to sale everything, the Vanguard Total Bond Market was up 5% in 2008. If they did not have to sell, they could take the interest and gains from the bond index and buy the stock index which was down 37%.

 

[letsgobobby]

How many of you know over the years a person like this who mocks you for being conservative and protecting your assets only to watch them get wiped out. I know many myself personally. Many corporate and tech snobs who thought they were smarter than the rest of us. I will take my 10% a year and get to the same place without the rollercoaster ride.

Also if people did it my way and slice it up, instead of taking a 22% loss in 2008 with the Vanguard Balance Index and they did not have to sale everything, the Vanguard Total Bond Market was up 5% in 2008. If they did not have to sell, they could take the interest and gains from the bond index and buy the stock index which was down 37%.

oh yes marlet timing! why didn't I think of that?

 

[RENTER]

oh yes marlet timing! why didn't I think of that?

If you call that market timing, then obviously you're not as smart as you think you are. I am sorry you said marlet timing. I guess I am not as smart as you because I do not know what that means. It is someone like you that I shed no tears for when a 2-year market crash happens.

 

[letsgobobby]

you are definitely the smartest person in the world!

 

[easyrider]

Also if people did it my way and slice it up, instead of taking a 22% loss in 2008 with the Vanguard Balance Index and they did not have to sale everything, the Vanguard Total Bond Market was up 5% in 2008. If they did not have to sell, they could take the interest and gains from the bond index and buy the stock index which was down 37%.

oh yes marlet timing! why didn't I think of that?

We lost enough with our different no load Vangaurd Funds in 2007-08 that we dumped them. Turned out that keeping them could have been a better idea.

We did pretty good swing and day trading but the few losses between trades were enough to make it seem like gambling so we quit while we were ahead.

Aren't both of you invested in mutual funds ?

Bill

 

[Brett]

Also if people did it my way and slice it up, instead of taking a 22% loss in 2008 with the Vanguard Balance Index and they did not have to sale everything, the Vanguard Total Bond Market was up 5% in 2008. If they did not have to sell, they could take the interest and gains from the bond index and buy the stock index which was down 37%.

You should sell your stock market trading "system" !

https://advisors.vanguard.com/insig...ll-show-clients-the-pitfalls-of-market-timing

 

[letsgobobby]

We lost enough with our different no load Vangaurd Funds in 2007-08 that we dumped them. Turned out that keeping them could have been a better idea.

We did pretty good swing and day trading but the few losses between trades were enough to make it seem like gambling so we quit while we were ahead.

Aren't both of you invested in mutual funds ?

Bill

We have a highly diversified, ultra low cost, tax efficient portfolio of global stock indexes (mutual funds and ETFs) and total US bond funds, as well as real estate (about 15%).

I have been investing for forty years. I haven't sold anything (except to rebalance if stock exposure gets above my target) in 25 years. Like Warren Buffett my favorite holding period is "forever".

Somehow this simple system resulted in us being financialy independent by our mid 40s. I wonder if the US stock market rising 50 fold since 1980 has anything to do with it?

 

[RENTER]

4 of the 11 sectors were up today. Energy, Real Estate, Health and Utilities. I squeaked out a 0.03% gain. My biggest winner of today was PLTD which was up 5.11%.

Good luck listening to people who cannot tell the difference between market timing and rebalancing.

 

[easyrider]

4 of the 11 sectors were up today. Energy, Real Estate, Health and Utilities. I squeaked out a 0.03% gain. My biggest winner of today was PLTD which was up 5.11%.

Good luck listening to people who cannot tell the difference between market timing and rebalancing.

When I was swing and day trading I used charting. Now days I see many websites that are like membership clubs where you trade within a group. I've thought about joining a couple of them but haven't had time enough to do this every day. I've seen some of the trades and the gains are pretty solid. Is this what you are doing ?

Bill