You're Being Lied to About Electric Cars

[HitchHiker71]

CATL, the worlds largest producer of Lithium batteries has been promising an update on Sodium Batteries this spring. CATL made some preliminary announcements in 2021 and is promising and update. Perhaps there will be an update at the auto show next week. Several smaller battery manufactures are already in full scale production of sodium batteries to be used in new inexpensive vehicles for sale in China. Sodium batteries are also used in data centers for battery backup. Density is not an issue in data centers, but their stability and lack of flammability make them the go to battery backup.

China's CATL unveils sodium-ion battery - a first for a major car battery maker

China's CATL (300750.SZ) on Thursday became the first major automotive battery maker to unveil a sodium-ion battery, saying it planned to set up a supply chain for the new technology in 2023.

www.reuters.com

Just remember that the Chinese market for BEVs is a good bit different than the US market. Range anxiety isn't an issue over in China like it is here in the US. Over here, even with LI-NMC high nickel batteries we still have range anxiety issues that demand larger high energy density packs. With less energy density, the range of these newer Chinese subcompact models is likely going to be nowhere close to the ranges that most American BEVs are offering today. At most, we'll see sodium batteries bringing potential equivalence to LFP battery packs (which also have lower energy density than LI-NMC packs), like the Tesla M3 SR RWD models that use LFP batteries from CATL today, which is why this model won't be eligible for the full tax credit come 4/18/2023, because of the requirements in the IRA laws to source both materials and perform pack assembly here in the US, or from US trade friendly countries (those with existing trade agreements). Tesla's website already indicates that come 4/18/2023 the M3 SR RWD will only be eligible for 50% of the EV tax credit due to CATL LFP battery pack usage. US manufacturers therefore likely aren't going to use China made CATL sodium battery packs solely because doing so will disqualify the vehicles from receiving 50% of the EV tax credit. Point being, sodium batteries being built in China might be good for China, but I wouldn't be waiting on buying a BEV here in the US based on these packs coming to or from the Chinese market - as our current IRA law likely isn't going to change with respect to China any time soon.

 

[emeryjre]

Sodium batteries can be produced on existing Lithium battery lines. Changing over is a simple process. So an existing battery plant will be able to be changed. At this point, sodium is not a major factor. Lets see where we are in 2 years. A $15K EV would be a game changer for lots of entry level buyers. Tax credits can be changed in 60 days as new information becomes available. Lack of US lithium production could also be a factor.
The CATL announcement will help answer some questions as they are the major player. I have been watching for it everyday since mid march.

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

Just remember that the Chinese market for BEVs is a good bit different than the US market. Range anxiety isn't an issue over in China like it is here in the US. Over here, even with LI-NMC high nickel batteries we still have range anxiety issues that demand larger high energy density packs. With less energy density, the range of these newer Chinese subcompact models is likely going to be nowhere close to the ranges that most American BEVs are offering today. At most, we'll see sodium batteries bringing potential equivalence to LFP battery packs (which also have lower energy density than LI-NMC packs), like the Tesla M3 SR RWD models that use LFP batteries from CATL today, which is why this model won't be eligible for the full tax credit come 4/18/2023, because of the requirements in the IRA laws to source both materials and assembly here in the US, or from US trade friendly countries (those with existing trade agreements). Tesla's website already indicates that come 4/18/2023 the M3 SR RWD will only be eligible for 50% of the EV tax credit due to CATL LFP battery pack usage. US manufacturers therefore likely aren't going to use China made CATL sodium battery packs solely because doing so will disqualify the vehicles from receiving 50% of the EV tax credit. Point being, sodium batteries being built in China might be good for China, but I wouldn't be waiting on buying a BEV here in the US based on these packs coming to the Chinese market - as our current IRA law likely isn't going to change with respect to China any time soon.

Personally, my number 1 requirement is a car that won't burn uncontrollable in my garage, take my house with it.

 

[HitchHiker71]

Personally, my number 1 requirement is a car that won't burn uncontrollable in my garage, take my house with it.

This fear is way over-hyped in reality. ICE vehicles catch fire for various unexpected reasons - especially electrical fires in older vehicles. While the risk certainly isn't zero - it's not something that any current buyer should really consider as an undue risk when you actually look at the comparative statistics - this is just FUD applied to BEVs in the mass media for the most part. Tesla has over 4mm BEVs produced and delivered - on average a fire occurs every 210mm miles in a Tesla - and rising - meaning lesser frequency over time. ICE vehicles on average, according to the NFPA and U.S. DOT, are 11 times more likely to experience a vehicle fire statistically. Granted, BEVs don't have nearly as many vehicles on the road, and are collectively much newer than ICE vehicles in so far as average vehicle length of ownership/age, but the fact that the statistics are actually getting better as time moves forward, is encouraging at least to me.

Statistically, Tesla Car Fires Are Less And Less Frequent

Tesla has recently revealed its latest Vehicle Fire Data, which indicates another year of improvement in the reduction of fire incidents per driving distance.

insideevs.com

 

[Chrispee]

The biggest advantage of the Tesla navigation is the integration of the SC network and the system's ability to track SC usage and to route Tesla owners to SCs that have open slots. This will become less prevalent as Tesla opens up their SC network to non-Tesla vehicles however - unless Tesla is going to open up APIs to these functions so that other manufacturers can add the same functions to their respective navigation software/systems.

Also of importance is that when you use Tesla navigation to route to a supercharger, the car will automatically precondition its battery for optimal charging.

 

[HitchHiker71]

Sodium batteries can be produced on existing Lithium battery lines. Changing over is a simple process. So an existing battery plant will be able to be changed. At this point, sodium is not a major factor. Lets see where we are in 2 years. A $15K EV would be a game changer for lots of entry level buyers. Tax credits can be changed in 60 days as new information becomes available. Lack of US lithium production could also be a factor.
The CATL announcement will help answer some questions as they are the major player. I have been watching for it everyday since mid march.

If sodium batteries can replace LFP batteries in lower tier/less expensive vehicles and provide the same energy density and range, I'd love to see some US based battery manufacturers - or those with existing battery manufacturing plants like Panasonic, introduce packs like this. Tesla's next model - which is aiming to cut the cost of production in half using LFP packs and more refined manufacturing processes - it supposed to break the 25k barrier - at least that's the stated goal - we'll see if they can get there over the next 2-3 years. If it's not difficult to alter the chemistry in the cells with sodium - especially given the US has 90% of current soda ash reserves - it would seem to make sense to pursue this avenue here in the US. Not sure how much refining capability we have for soda ash - but I'd imagine that is something we can resolve relatively quickly if we really wanted to make it happen. Perhaps the CATL announcement may help push some local innovators in this direction!

 

[HitchHiker71]

Also of importance is that when you use Tesla navigation to route to a supercharger, the car will automatically precondition its battery for optimal charging.

Yes, exactly. This makes me wonder what's going to happen as Tesla opens up the SC network to non-Tesla vehicles, will they provide open APIs to allow for optimal charging for non-Tesla packs? IMHO they really should - but we'll have to wait and see what happens here. If they do this, I don't see why these same APIs wouldn't be accessible to AC/AA for navigation integration - which furthers my preference to allow for AC/AA support within the Tesla ecosystem. Let the consumer decide which UX they want to use - don't limit them to the Tesla UX unilaterally.

 

[Ken555]

Carplay plays music at a higher fidelity than bluetooth - which matters to some. Signal to noise ratio is much higher (better) when using Carplay for example. Bluetooth also does not support the ability to navigate by contact name such as "navigate to personsnamehere's home." At least I cannot get it to work - and this is one of the primary purposes of having Carplay for navigation - I don't remember people's addresses - but my phone does. The browser is decent yes, but you also have to keep it loaded on the screen for it to work properly in most cases - if you minimize the browser into the background - most of the navigation and music apps stop working/playing. I routinely use abettertheater.com/tesla to stream Amazon music for example - but if I minimize the browser to make a configuration change in the car, it stops playing the music stream every time. There is no question that app support is better - including AC/AA. It's a compromise using simple bluetooth connectivity -and if you're going to spend 60k on a CUV - I don't expect to have to compromise.

I had a deposit on a M3 the day it was announced, and the most annoying parts of it were the lack of integration options as you mention and the lack of SiriusXM. I know they provide alternatives, but it’s just strange that they would limit customer choice, though it’s very much an Elon trademark.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Carolinian]

We don't need EV's forced down our throats.

Biden unveils emissions rule to force purchases of electronic vehicles

President Joe Biden on Wednesday unveiled the toughest rules to date for automobile emissions in an effort to push more Americans to purchase expensive electric vehicles.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

This fear is way over-hyped in reality. ICE vehicles catch fire for various unexpected reasons - especially electrical fires in older vehicles. While the risk certainly isn't zero - it's not something that any current buyer should really consider as an undue risk when you actually look at the comparative statistics - this is just FUD applied to BEVs in the mass media for the most part. Tesla has over 4mm BEVs produced and delivered - on average a fire occurs every 210mm miles in a Tesla - and rising - meaning lesser frequency over time. ICE vehicles on average, according to the NFPA and U.S. DOT, are 11 times more likely to experience a vehicle fire statistically. Granted, BEVs don't have nearly as many vehicles on the road, and are collectively much newer than ICE vehicles in so far as average vehicle length of ownership/age, but the fact that the statistics are actually getting better as time moves forward, is encouraging at least to me.

Statistically, Tesla Car Fires Are Less And Less Frequent

Tesla has recently revealed its latest Vehicle Fire Data, which indicates another year of improvement in the reduction of fire incidents per driving distance.

insideevs.com

View attachment 75424

Lithium fires are almost impossible to control, once started. I keep my car in an attached garage. If it goes, so does my entire house. That's not a risk I'm willing to carry. If you are willing, it's Ok by me.

 

[emeryjre]

Lithium fires are almost impossible to control, once started. I keep my car in an attached garage. If it goes, so does my entire house. That's not a risk I'm willing to carry. If you are willing, it's Ok

I am monitoring Sodium batteries closely. I have talked with a couple of VP's of companies providing sodium battery backup to data centers. I will be posting the CATL announcement as soon as I hear more.

 

[HitchHiker71]

I had a deposit on a M3 the day it was announced, and the most annoying parts of it were the lack of integration options as you mention and the lack of SiriusXM. I know they provide alternatives, but it’s just strange that they would limit customer choice, though it’s very much an Elon trademark.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Hoping that the application of JB Straubel to the Tesla board is approved and that he is the future CEO of Tesla, given he was the CTO for Tesla when he left in 2019 to head up Redwood Materials as CEO. I think we'd see some different decisions from Tesla under JBs leadership - among them a more heterogeneous systems integration approach.

 

[HitchHiker71]

Lithium fires are almost impossible to control, once started. I keep my car in an attached garage. If it goes, so does my entire house. That's not a risk I'm willing to carry. If you are willing, it's Ok by me.

Again, I think the risks are mostly FUD based given the statistics/data show that BEVs are some 11 times less risky for fires when compared to ICE vehicles - but I take your point that lithium fires prove difficult to extinguish especially using only water as opposed to specialized chemicals. I keep our BEV in a two car side entry garage with a Tesla Wall Home Charger installed using a 60amp circuit charging at 48 amps (11.5kwh).

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

Again, I think the risks are mostly FUD based given the statistics/data show that BEVs are some 11 times less risky for fires when compared to ICE vehicles - but I take your point that lithium fires prove difficult to extinguish especially using only water as opposed to specialized chemicals. I keep our BEV in a two car side entry garage with a Tesla Wall Home Charger installed using a 60amp circuit charging at 48 amps (11.5kwh).

To each their own.

 

[emeryjre]

First announcement from upcoming Shanghai auto show regarding Sodium batteries. Show opens on April 18 in Shanghai.

Chery (this is the brand, not a misspelling) will use CATL Sodium ION batteries.

The new batteries are rumored to match LFP energy density.

The brand name of these new batteries will be ENER-Q

 

[Carolinian]

The latest Gallup poll shows that only 4% own EV's (and that is very skewed demographically) and only 12% are seriously considering buying them.

 

[Ken555]

The latest Gallup poll shows that only 4% own EV's (and that is very skewed demographically) and only 12% are seriously considering buying them.

That’s highly doubtful, though you know stats…they can be twisted to reach whatever conclusion you want, and I think by now most of us here know what you prefer.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[HitchHiker71]

The latest Gallup poll shows that only 4% own EV's (and that is very skewed demographically) and only 12% are seriously considering buying them.

Who cares about polling data really, when we can simply look at factual data in comparison.

US: All-Electric Car Sales Surged In January 2023 - 7% Market Share

Electrification of cars in the United States significanly accelerated in early 2023, according to the latest reports for the month of January.

insideevs.com

Excerpted from the article:

According to the registration data from Experian (via Automotive News), out of 1.24 million new light vehicles registered in January, some 87,708, or 7.1 percent were all-electric. That's a 74 percent increase year-over-year and a noticeable change, compared to a 4.3 percent share in January 2022. The 7.1 percent share is also a step change from 5.6 percent in the 12 months of 2022.

So the fact is that we are seeing significant year over year growth based upon actual vehicle registration data, as opposed to a Gallup poll data which is subjective at best.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Carolinian]

That’s highly doubtful, though you know stats…they can be twisted to reach whatever conclusion you want, and I think by now most of us here know what you prefer.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Those are Gallup's results. They specifically asked if people were seriously considering buying electric cars. And here is another indication that the fad may be on the way out:

Interest in new electric cars slumps, figures show

Online vehicle marketplace Auto Trader said it recorded a 65% drop in inquiries for electric cars last month compared with January 2022, blaming the high prices of EVs.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Passepartout]

Those are Gallup's results. They specifically asked if people were seriously considering buying electric cars. And here is another indication that the fad may be on the way out:

I suspect that the EV phenomenon may be more revolution than 'fad'. The Gallup results would be FAR different if there were the same number of EVs on the market as ICEs. This will become apparent as production of ICEs is curtailed and BEV technology matures and costs come down.

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

"Say you want a revolution,
Well, you know,
We don't want to change the world."
- John Lennon

This "revolution" is being rammed down people's throats. Some of us complain about that.

 

[emeryjre]

Still lots of choices in EU. But Tesla Model Y was #1 in Europe in Q1 2023

Tesla Model Y Was Europe's Best-Selling Car In Q1 2023 | Carscoops

Fully electric cars accounted for 13.4% of the total new car registrations in Europe in Q1 2023, with 430,700 units

www.carscoops.com

 

[Passepartout]

Still lots of choices in EU. But Tesla Model Y was #1 in Europe in Q1 2023

Tesla Model Y Was Europe's Best-Selling Car In Q1 2023 | Carscoops

Fully electric cars accounted for 13.4% of the total new car registrations in Europe in Q1 2023, with 430,700 units

www.carscoops.com

See. All it takes is $8 dollars a gallon gasoline from Russia.

 

[Ken555]

Those are Gallup's results. They specifically asked if people were seriously considering buying electric cars. And here is another indication that the fad may be on the way out:

Interest in new electric cars slumps, figures show

Online vehicle marketplace Auto Trader said it recorded a 65% drop in inquiries for electric cars last month compared with January 2022, blaming the high prices of EVs.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Care to bet on that?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Brett]

Those are Gallup's results. They specifically asked if people were seriously considering buying electric cars. And here is another indication that the fad may be on the way out:

LOL

Maybe when the oil wells run dry the "fad" will make a comeback