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With the stock market plunging. . .

Brett said:
and it probably won't be your last dividend lost in the "Pandemic Era" - Ford and other companies are suspending quarterly dividends
Click to expand...
Yep, just wasn't sure where it would start! Not like Boeing problems were new, surprised it took so long. It's fine, I have plenty of time for it to right itself.

I have never invested in auto companies nor airlines. I like owning food and consumer staples, utilities, railroads. I am intentionally light in retail, COST and HD are it. Both remain open, both will likely remain open.
 
I just don’t understand the buy & hold philosophy during this churn and burn period! I went to total cash on 3/12. A day late but thats ok. In my opinion better than holding and watching everything we had worked so hard over the years just going so low that we would never get it back in our lifetime. We are not out forever, just until the world stabilizes in some manner again. The market will come back again some day and i will end up not buying at the bottom but will still be able to catch a nice ride up again.
 
Bucky said:
I just don’t understand the buy & hold philosophy during this churn and burn period! I went to total cash on 3/12. A day late but thats ok. In my opinion better than holding and watching everything we had worked so hard over the years just going so low that we would never get it back in our lifetime. We are not out forever, just until the world stabilizes in some manner again. The market will come back again some day and i will end up not buying at the bottom but will still be able to catch a nice ride up again.
Click to expand...

You are indeed clairvoyant in being able to time the stock market ups and downs. and "catching a nice ride up"
Many people (myself included) do not have those abilities :(

Probably why people without those predictive powers hold a mix of stock index funds, bonds, and other fixed income.
And maybe a little RE investments thrown in - like fast appreciating timeshares :)
 
Even with a mixture of stocks index funds, bonds and other fixed income things are not looking good,
Our RMD for 2020 is not looking are that bright IMO.
 
Bucky said:
I just don’t understand the buy & hold philosophy during this churn and burn period! I went to total cash on 3/12. A day late but thats ok. In my opinion better than holding and watching everything we had worked so hard over the years just going so low that we would never get it back in our lifetime. We are not out forever, just until the world stabilizes in some manner again. The market will come back again some day and i will end up not buying at the bottom but will still be able to catch a nice ride up again.
Click to expand...
If you aren't out forever, why are you out?

I have been buy and hold since I started 30 years ago. None of my companies have gone bankrupt. You can believe the "never get it back in our lifetime" but I would question why you think that. I don't actually believe that this is the end of the road for Boeing, that they will cease operations and next year will not exist. My cost per sh is still lower than this sunk price.

I'm an investor, I am invested. Buy and hold is not a philosophy, it's a tactic that supports my long hold dividend reinvestment strategy. My strategy and tactics have not changed because they have worked for me through all kinds of markets. It's ok if you don't understand it. I don't understand selling at a loss.

It's not a major concern that this one company in my portfolio has stopped the dividend for a while. Sometimes that is the right thing to do. I'm not sure Boeing was fully punished for the Max but it's getting the belt now.

Case by case, company by company, they'll do what they need to do to survive. Vioxx didn't wipe out Merck, one of my first companies. Baby powder hasn't wiped out JNJ.

When we emerge from this, I will still have as many shares as before. What exactly should I be worried about? Share price? That bounces around daily in normal times.
 
pedro47 said:
Even with a mixture of stocks index funds, bonds and other fixed income things are not looking good,
Our RMD for 2020 is not looking are that bright IMO.
Click to expand...

yes, depends on the mix
If one believes this is a major depression that will take 20 years to recover and you're 90 years old then holding a significant majority of your financial assets in CDs and high quality bonds (or pensions) is advised
 
geekette said:
If you aren't out forever, why are you out?

I have been buy and hold since I started 30 years ago. None of my companies have gone bankrupt. You can believe the "never get it back in our lifetime" but I would question why you think that. I don't actually believe that this is the end of the road for Boeing, that they will cease operations and next year will not exist. My cost per sh is still lower than this sunk price.

I'm an investor, I am invested. Buy and hold is not a philosophy, it's a tactic that supports my long hold dividend reinvestment strategy. My strategy and tactics have not changed because they have worked for me through all kinds of markets. It's ok if you don't understand it. I don't understand selling at a loss.

It's not a major concern that this one company in my portfolio has stopped the dividend for a while. Sometimes that is the right thing to do. I'm not sure Boeing was fully punished for the Max but it's getting the belt now.

Case by case, company by company, they'll do what they need to do to survive. Vioxx didn't wipe out Merck, one of my first companies. Baby powder hasn't wiped out JNJ.

When we emerge from this, I will still have as many shares as before. What exactly should I be worried about? Share price? That bounces around daily in normal times.
Click to expand...

Healthy perspective. Especially for your mental health!


Harry
 
geekette said:
I have been buy and hold since I started 30 years ago. None of my companies have gone bankrupt... When we emerge from this, I will still have as many shares as before. What exactly should I be worried about? Share price? That bounces around daily in normal times.
Click to expand...

Historically you are dead right. I'm not sure this situation may not be the exception to the rule...

George
 
Bucky said:
I just don’t understand the buy & hold philosophy during this churn and burn period! I went to total cash on 3/12. A day late but thats ok. In my opinion better than holding and watching everything we had worked so hard over the years just going so low that we would never get it back in our lifetime. We are not out forever, just until the world stabilizes in some manner again. The market will come back again some day and i will end up not buying at the bottom but will still be able to catch a nice ride up again.
Click to expand...
Most of my holdings I bought when they were very low and I'm in most for the divided. Luckily I don't need the money because of other investments I can sit and wait. Our kids will come out great when I pass on. When the market dropped so much in 2008 I went down to about 50% but within a few years I was about a third higher then when it started. Following my way up to now at least I've always prospered both on paper from holding and in my pocket from dividends. Also with the dividends I've done well enough to invest in other things such as tax free bonds.
Bart
 
bogey21 said:
Historically you are dead right. I'm not sure this situation may not be the exception to the rule...

George
Click to expand...
The big freak out is premature. Most all of my companies are still priced higher than their 52 week low. I own a lot of food, we know people are eating.
 
geekette said:
If you aren't out forever, why are you out?

I have been buy and hold since I started 30 years ago. None of my companies have gone bankrupt. You can believe the "never get it back in our lifetime" but I would question why you think that. I don't actually believe that this is the end of the road for Boeing, that they will cease operations and next year will not exist. My cost per sh is still lower than this sunk price.

I'm an investor, I am invested. Buy and hold is not a philosophy, it's a tactic that supports my long hold dividend reinvestment strategy. My strategy and tactics have not changed because they have worked for me through all kinds of markets. It's ok if you don't understand it. I don't understand selling at a loss.

It's not a major concern that this one company in my portfolio has stopped the dividend for a while. Sometimes that is the right thing to do. I'm not sure Boeing was fully punished for the Max but it's getting the belt now.

Case by case, company by company, they'll do what they need to do to survive. Vioxx didn't wipe out Merck, one of my first companies. Baby powder hasn't wiped out JNJ.

When we emerge from this, I will still have as many shares as before. What exactly should I be worried about? Share price? That bounces around daily in normal times.
Click to expand...

I agree. One of my FAs showed me the history of crisis.

View attachment market-volatility-sheet.pdf

I must say this one is a doozy. The trend is sheer panic, sellathon, shake out weak holders, resume upward trend. Fear can be an enemy. Selling is further triggered by margin calls too

On that note, we forget people make money in the way down on shorts and puts. The blips you see up (some call it dead cat bounce) are folks covering their positions.

My FAs just do some puts in early February as a hedge so losses are controlled right now at 12 percent.

Frankly, I am adding more gradually as I see a big pop at some point. Initially, this was not a financial problem. Saying that, if we stay shut down and quarantined, it could end up the way.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
Brett said:
You are indeed clairvoyant in being able to time the stock market ups and downs. and "catching a nice ride up"
Many people (myself included) do not have those abilities :(

Probably why people without those predictive powers hold a mix of stock index funds, bonds, and other fixed income.
And maybe a little RE investments thrown in - like fast appreciating timeshares :)
Click to expand...

Not clairvoyant by any means. It’s not about timing the market. It’s just about buy low and sell high. Like I’ve said before there are no fundamentals in play right now. It’s all being news driven. The news is all negative right now. When there is an antidote or at least a treatment announced, the market will stabilize again. Another trigger may be when we see the daily numbers in Italy start to make a turn. For me to just sit around knowing what’s going on and not take flight to safety, just makes absolutely no sense. The market will be there when this is all over and I will get back n at that time. For the present I am protecting myself the best I can. Good luck to everyone.

geekette said:
If you aren't out forever, why are you out?

I have been buy and hold since I started 30 years ago. None of my companies have gone bankrupt. You can believe the "never get it back in our lifetime" but I would question why you think that. I don't actually believe that this is the end of the road for Boeing, that they will cease operations and next year will not exist. My cost per sh is still lower than this sunk price.

I'm an investor, I am invested. Buy and hold is not a philosophy, it's a tactic that supports my long hold dividend reinvestment strategy. My strategy and tactics have not changed because they have worked for me through all kinds of markets. It's ok if you don't understand it. I don't understand selling at a loss.

It's not a major concern that this one company in my portfolio has stopped the dividend for a while. Sometimes that is the right thing to do. I'm not sure Boeing was fully punished for the Max but it's getting the belt now.

Case by case, company by company, they'll do what they need to do to survive. Vioxx didn't wipe out Merck, one of my first companies. Baby powder hasn't wiped out JNJ.

When we emerge from this, I will still have as many shares as before. What exactly should I be worried about? Share price? That bounces around daily in normal times.
Click to expand...

Its really quite simple. We are 70 year olds and I have severe heart disease. In the 10 days that we have been cash only our investments would have lost another 12%. Being all cash prevented that. The market is not going to bounce straight up to where it was. In fact, it may never get back to that level again, at least in my lifetime. When it does stabilize I will get back in. I wont catch the bottom. I wouldn’t even try. I want to see a turn around and a confirmation before I even start nibbling again.

We Obviously have two different goals during this mess, which is just fine. But, people have to do what they are comfortable with and I’m not comfortable knowing, or at least having a strong fact based basis that the market will continue to spiral down for the time being, with leaving our money in the market.

Now, in the short term let’s hope there are no glitches with electronic trading only starting tomorrow.
 
Bucky said:
Not clairvoyant by any means. It’s not about timing the market. It’s just about buy low and sell high. Like I’ve said before there are no fundamentals in play right now. It’s all being news driven. The news is all negative right now. When there is an antidote or at least a treatment announced, the market will stabilize again. Another trigger may be when we see the daily numbers in Italy start to make a turn. For me to just sit around knowing what’s going on and not take flight to safety, just makes absolutely no sense. The market will be there when this is all over and I will get back n at that time. For the present I am protecting myself the best I can. Good luck to everyone.



Its really quite simple. We are 70 year olds and I have severe heart disease. In the 10 days that we have been cash only our investments would have lost another 12%. Being all cash prevented that. The market is not going to bounce straight up to where it was. In fact, it may never get back to that level again, at least in my lifetime. When it does stabilize I will get back in. I wont catch the bottom. I wouldn’t even try. I want to see a turn around and a confirmation before I even start nibbling again.

We Obviously have two different goals during this mess, which is just fine. But, people have to do what they are comfortable with and I’m not comfortable knowing, or at least having a strong fact based basis that the market will continue to spiral down for the time being, with leaving our money in the market.

Now, in the short term let’s hope there are no glitches with electronic trading only starting tomorrow.
Click to expand...


OK, it's not about market timing but having the ability to pick the highs and lows and "catching the ride" back up when it's obvious
yes, being 100% invested in cash right now is a very good thing for you
 
I completely agree that everyone has their own deal going on. If corona doesn't get me, I do expect to live another 40 years. I generally only invest in companies that I expect to outlive me. Time will tell if I got that right on some, none or all accounts. Since there is nobody but me depending on my savings, I am comfortable with what others view as extreme risk. I've been poor before, I'll manage no matter how this comes out.
 
geekette said:
I completely agree that everyone has their own deal going on. If corona doesn't get me, I do expect to live another 40 years. I generally only invest in companies that I expect to outlive me. Time will tell if I got that right on some, none or all accounts. Since there is nobody but me depending on my savings, I am comfortable with what others view as extreme risk. I've been poor before, I'll manage no matter how this comes out.
Click to expand...

Totally agree with you. While I bailed for the time being, I have not recommended that to our 43 yr old daughter. She has been diligently investing to her 401k every payday. After 20 years with a great company match, she has managed to grow a good size portfolio. She has at least another 20 years to continue to grow it and recoup short term losses when they happen.
 
Future Tax Question: IRA Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) are based upon your balance on December 31 of the previous year. That would mean your RMD balances on December 31,2019.

IMO, all balances would be higher for tax year 2019; before the stock market tank. Is this correct or am I wrong in my thinking.

Will Congress offers to make some RMD adjustments for tax year 2019?

No political answers .Please....
 
pedro47 said:
Future Tax Question: IRA Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) are based upon your balance on December 31 of the previous year. That would mean your RMD balances on December 31,2019.

IMO, all balances would be higher for tax year 2019; before the stock market tank. Is this correct or am I wrong in my thinking.

No political answers.
Click to expand...
Yes. This year you have to pull your RMD, calculated based on Dec 31 2019 ending balance in all of your IRA.

If you turn 70.5 years this year, you can defer RMD until March 31, 2021 based on Dec 2019 balance, and if you do this you will need to take a second RMD based on Dec 2020 balance by Dec 2021, i.e. 2 RMD withdrawals in 2021.
 
pedro47 said:
Future Tax Question: IRA Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) are based upon your balance on December 31 of the previous year. That would mean your RMD balances on December 31,2019.

IMO, all balances would be higher for tax year 2019; before the stock market tank. Is this correct or am I wrong in my thinking.

Will Congress offers to make some RMD adjustments for tax year 2019?

No political answers .Please....
Click to expand...
Good question. And one that for which there isn't an answer. Maybe write your reprsentatives and express that in fairness it should be brought up. This would take congressional law changing. This will have to be addressed when- and only when the immediate crisis has passed. I can assure you that nothing will be done while the economic, social, and pandemic is still ramping up.

Jim
 
Another IRA question... for those that need to, it would be nice of the government to relax the current early withdrawal penalty from IRAs. Doubt it will happen, but I suppose it’s possible.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
My bank just sent out a note stating that they will waive any CD early withdrawal penalties due to the financial impact of Covid-19. Obviously a small gesture but a good PR idea.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
geekette said:
I don't think they will change it and don't think they should change it.

Why would you want to be forced to remove more? Don't lobby for that change.
Click to expand...
I think he is thinking of asking to recalculate based on reduced amount, not more. In 2009, RMD was deferred for a year because of the recession.
 
Last edited:
Brett said:
OK, it's not about market timing but having the ability to pick the highs and lows and "catching the ride" back up when it's obvious
yes, being 100% invested in cash right now is a very good thing for you
Click to expand...

This is market timing.
 
One thing we haven’t discussed when it comes to the market is even though the Fed and Treasury is trying everything possible to avoid a crash (which does not seem to be working), couldn’t all these demands for rescue cash potentially crash the government?

Actually, governments all over the world are getting lamb basted with bail out demands. This one is making the 2008 financial crash look like a play school party.

I suppose time will tell. I do see so many risks on so many levels here.


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