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With the stock market plunging. . .

easyrider

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Could do a 180 before the day is over though. The vote was party line which Unfortuneately is how everything is under this administration. The Republicans were heavy on bailing out businesses. The Democrats are heavy on bailing out individuals. I think they will come together very soon to pass something. The Democrats want to win the election this fall and they cannot afford to look like the bad guys on this.
We are walking a thin line here regarding the NO POLITICS ON TUG dealio.

Hopefully things will sort out sooner than later. I think this market plunge and new quarantine hurts everyone in some ways but really hurts young families the most. My youngest son has a mortgage and all the bills of owning a house, he is off work for a month if not longer, his wife is a waitress at a closed restaurant and this is the situation of many people in their thirties.

Anyway, lets try to keep politics out of this thread because that would close it very fast.

Thanks

Bill
 

Bucky

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Or it could go 360 for another brutal day on the 'street'
Spot on. Actually turned green for awhile until the second vote on the stimulus was negative. My prediction is it gets passed tonight and the market gaps up in the morning. Or, they don’t and we stay put!

I’m pretty sure this is true of the republicans, too. At some point, I wish both sides would put the nation’s interest above their own naked political interest. I know it will probably never happen but one can hope.
Agreed 100% but that’s not going to happen with this administration. Maybe if we can get one party to win everything, but not until then IMO. Sad days from when I grew up.
 

Fredflintstone

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I still can’t get my head around the money needed to sustain things. Perhaps, I need to think in terms that this is just play money and all the government has to do is add some zeros in a computer and voila.


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Bucky

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We are walking a thin line here regarding the NO POLITICS ON TUG dealio.

Hopefully things will sort out sooner than later. I think this market plunge and new quarantine hurts everyone in some ways but really hurts young families the most. My youngest son has a mortgage and all the bills of owning a house, he is off work for a month if not longer, his wife is a waitress at a closed restaurant and this is the situation of many people in their thirties.

Anyway, lets try to keep politics out of this thread because that would close it very fast.

Thanks

Bill
Discussing almost anything nowadays almost always brings politics into the discussion, especially a financial thread which is being driven by everyday current events. I believe as long as we live in a glass house we shouldn’t throw rocks but to expect us to not play with them at all is a stretch!
 

Fredflintstone

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Yes, unfortunately, governments have and do play a role in the markets because of how unprecedented this situation is.

I was reading back on past financial crisis and no where, so far, have I found a time when businesses just shut down. Can anyone find a time when this has happened?

Moving forward after covid 19, I wonder what would be in place to limit the damage to the markets? It is possible that a virus like this one comes again and hopefully we will be better prepared.

I do feel sorry for the many folks who rely on an income and will experience hardship over what’s happening. One thing I remember when my grandpa said when I was very little was that a depression taught him to always save a bit bit more emergencies. Maybe a situation like this will reinforce that thought....even if it is only 25 dollars a month.


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Spot on. Actually turned green for awhile until the second vote on the stimulus was negative. My prediction is it gets passed tonight and the market gaps up in the morning. Or, they don’t and we stay put!



Agreed 100% but that’s not going to happen with this administration. Maybe if we can get one party to win everything, but not until then IMO. Sad days from when I grew up.
Yep, I’m old enough to remember when they would go out to dinner and drinks together. Ronald Reagan and Tip O’Neill were good friends. It’s ridiculous how they act now.


Harry
 

Rolltydr

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I’m keeping my comments non-partisan which I think is the problem. A pox on both their houses.


Harry
 

dioxide45

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Discussing almost anything nowadays almost always brings politics into the discussion,
It certainly doesn't have to be that way.
 

easyrider

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Maybe a situation like this will reinforce that thought....even if it is only 25 dollars a month.
Most of the people I worked with when I started out in the construction trades were old union guys that remembered the Great Depression. They said that to really be thankful for a job was to not have a job. These guys had a work motto about being thankful for their jobs. Besides teaching me the trades they also taught me to be grateful for our jobs. I guess that is where we are heading now.

Bill
 

bogey21

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I still can’t get my head around the money needed to sustain things. Perhaps, I need to think in terms that this is just play money and all the government has to do is add some zeros in a computer and voila.
The day is going to come when interest rates get back to historic norms at which time some 25% to 50% of the Government's revenue will be needed to service the debt. Maybe not in my lifetime, but it will happen...

George
 

Brett

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We are walking a thin line here regarding the NO POLITICS ON TUG dealio.

Hopefully things will sort out sooner than later. I think this market plunge and new quarantine hurts everyone in some ways but really hurts young families the most. My youngest son has a mortgage and all the bills of owning a house, he is off work for a month if not longer, his wife is a waitress at a closed restaurant and this is the situation of many people in their thirties.

Anyway, lets try to keep politics out of this thread because that would close it very fast.

Thanks

Bill
OK, no politics
stock markets plunged again today .... the "plunger" is getting quite a workout lately
hope it doesn't break
 
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bluehende

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The day is going to come when interest rates get back to historic norms at which time some 25% to 50% of the Government's revenue will be needed to service the debt. Maybe not in my lifetime, but it will happen...

George
With all this stimulus being funded by debt that the rate is determined by open markets it could be closer than you think. No one knows how we will come out of this.
 

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Both my wife and I have pensions from being Retail Clerks in the groceries business with 42 and 43 years in. We've always saved,with 401k's and Roth's. I had several stocks before we got married and most are dividend payers. The stock portfolio is a decent amount. Recently I inherited some money and decided to put it in bonds that are both state and federal tax exempt and I draw SS from retiring 7 years ago at 62.
Yes, luck has played a part as our pensions are much better then what people earn now. We did give up higher wages for years so more money went into the pension plan. Some of my stocks turned out way better then I could have ever dreamed. Because of the above we've been able to do whatever we want plus help our kids. It also helped that we paid off our house about 20 years ago.
We feel blessed and lucky we each bought our first houses right after college before Silicon Valley became what it is today. Hard savings and lots of overtime even while going to college full time has made a huge difference for today. I gave up my time and freedom then to have a better life today.
Don't so much feel it's bragging but I am proud of what we have accomplished. I only hope my kids realize the sacrifices to make life better for them too.
Bart
On my stock fund it currently is running about the same as the DOW, down about 35%. Haven't even looked at our Roth's or 401k's. I'll just wait for those statements to come. So far only one of the companies I'm invested in has stopped their dividend. Just sticking with things as at least up to now I've never had to dip into any of it. Only time will tell.
 

pedro47

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Today was an overall good day for the stock market. Can it continue?
 

dioxide45

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Today was an overall good day for the stock market. Can it continue?
Perhaps. The problem is the market is being swayed by politics right now. So anything can happen.
 

VacationForever

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I finally logged in. We are "only" down 22%, and it will take 28% increase to get back to where we were... in the meantime, we hope we have seen the bottom.
 

vikingsholm

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Here is an interesting article about the normal path of the past few bear market crashes and aftermath recoveries, and if this one roughly follows the past few, what to expect:


This website contains writeups by many different authors, most of whom are involved professionally in the market one way or another. On any given day, you'll find a wide range of opinions and perspectives that vary and contradict each other greatly. The reader comments on these articles are often useful too, as many of them are laymen, but seem to be active investors who follow the market.

This article that I linked is one that I would put some belief in normally. Typically, markets don't bounce back immediately from a crash scenario, but have a short but sharp relief rally, followed by more gradual down movement, then recover at different paces in the long run depending on what caused the drop initially. This market was already overextended and especially with corporate debt, so was just waiting for the pin to pop it. Coronavirus was a sharper than usual pin.

However, the amount and types of QE being rolled out by the Fed and the stimulus from Congress are rather unprecedented, so that throws a definite curveball into the discussion. As do the unknowns with how well we will follow social distancing nationally, how that will impact recovery from the virus, and whether any medical treatments will surface in the shorter term that actually have an impact. So it's really anybody's guess as to what may happen, though I do believe that patterns of behavior in the market tend to rhyme, though not repeat.

Here are a few other factors that I've come across in my readings the past few days, some of which aren't too surprising, and others that may be:

- All assets including normal safe harbors were being sold during the crash, often to cover margin in other areas or raise needed cash. So stocks, bonds, and precious metals all sold off.

- Long bonds/treasuries would normally have seen their interest rates go down as people fled to them for safety. But the market for them was strange and illiquid, and the demand did not raise to the point where the interest rates were going down, instead they went up. I read that it actually got to a somewhat dangerous point where the Fed had to jump in with far more than normal purchases of treasuries to stabilize the market. Just repeating what I read here - I don't work in this field, to know enough for sure.

- There were some very technical articles I read by traders and analysts from wall street firms, but didn't really understand. But the gist was that things got pretty out of control for even the professionals with the speed of the drop, and a lot of the extreme measures that the Fed took were considered pretty necessary and important to stabilize things in the short term.

- While there may be a pullback from today's upward jolt, there is also a quarter end rebalancing that will take place at the end of March. Since many funds sold off stocks during the crash this month, there may be a batch of repurchasing of stock that will boost the market towards the end of the month too.

One other thing being posited is that all the QE and money spraying will likely lead to precious metals becoming a more favored safe haven again (after the recent sell off). I took a speculative position a few days ago anticipating this, and I expect it will go on for awhile, as gold and silver caught some large bids the past few days.
 

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Perhaps. The problem is the market is being swayed by politics right now. So anything can happen.

the stock market is swayed by unemployment numbers, forecast of company earnings and revenue, interest rates, inflation rate, tax rates, emotions, government debt, and
yes ................ "politics"
 
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Luvtoride

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Vikings,
Very good analysis. I’ve been reading a lot these days too and agree with much of what you stated. There will definitely be winners out of all this as some great companies have been sold off and will undoubtedly recover. Rather than trying to pick individual companies stocks I’m looking at moving money into a couple of good mutual funds where the professionals can do that better than I and diversify the portfolio. Much better chance for success I think.
Good luck to all. Hang on for the ride, it’s a long way from being over!


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pedro47

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It is coming to take Many, many years before the stock market return IMHO.
 

bogey21

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Both my wife and I have pensions from being Retail Clerks in the groceries business with 42 and 43 years in... We did give up higher wages for years so more money went into the pension plan.
I too have a good pension and I (and others who retired with me) also gave up higher wages to get it. In our case we agreed to significantly lower wage increases (like 1%) for about 8 years in exchange for enhanced pensions...

George
 
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