Tourism to Return?

[csodjd]

As I understand it, the 14-day quarantine rule ends May 20. Southwest just updated flight schedules and the following is being reported:

Southwest now plans to revive daily Oakland-Maui flights on May 21, followed by a restoration of San Jose-Honolulu and Sacramento-Honolulu service on June 7. The airline will also add a new California-Hawaii route on June 7, kicking off daily flights from San Diego to Honolulu.

I wonder if other airlines will start to resume service May 21? Just in time for the Memorial Weekend? What restrictions will there be on the Islands?

 

[CalGalTraveler]

Not sure about what will be open, however, the key question is do YOU want to risk it? Even though the peak may have passed, if you haven't tested positive for Covid-19 and have some form of immunity, or if no proven off-label treatments exist, you or your family are still vulnerable.

May/June seems early to see results of off-label drug or plasma trials. Although I haven't had the heart to cancel our Kingsland visit in June, the prospects are poor no matter what's open/not open.

 

[vacationtime1]

I wouldn't be buying non-refundable airline tickets, hotels, or rental cars for a trip to Hawaii this May.

California isn't supposed to have its "peak" number of Covid-19 cases until mid-May; why would anyone think they should get on an airplane for a non-essential vacation at that exact time?

 

[csodjd]

I wouldn't be buying non-refundable airline tickets, hotels, or rental cars for a trip to Hawaii this May.

California isn't supposed to have its "peak" number of Covid-19 cases until mid-May; why would anyone think they should get on an airplane for a non-essential vacation at that exact time?

Actually, the latest models show California resource use peaks in five days, will only need 6 hospital beds in the entire state for COVID by May 23 and zero by May 30, and deaths/day will hit 0 by May 16. That means very few new cases by early May since mortality lags 1-2 weeks behind infection. Hawaii is ahead of CA on all those measures.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

It would seem that by May 20 for Hawaii there is no tourist safer than one from CA, and no place safer for someone in CA to go than Hawaii. The drive to/from the airport is probably more dangerous than COVID by May 20.

 

[Miss Marty]

Social Distancing

Air LInes should limit how many people fly on their planes during/after Covid-19
Passengers would likely be in full support of: removing the middle seats !

 

[jpc763]

As I understand it, the 14-day quarantine rule ends May 20.

Where did you see May 20? Only thing I have been able to find is "until further notice".

 

[bnoble]

Actually, the latest models show California resource use peaks in five days, will only need 6 hospital beds in the entire state for COVID by May 23 and zero by May 30, and deaths/day will hit 0 by May 16.

This is only true if a lot of things that haven't happened yet happen. From that site's FAQ:

Why do your estimates only go until July? Does that mean the outbreak will be over then?

Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave.

 

[DaveNV]

The thing to consider is that even if the peak has passed, it just means the next day, the rate of infection will be lower than it was the day before. The virus is still just as deadly, just that a fewer number of cases will be new. Those people who catch it will be just as sick, and just as vulnerable. The peak of infections only refers to the number of cases, nothing more.

Don't get in a rush, or you could easily become a statistic.

Dave

 

[Luanne]

Just the perspective of my dh. He's not planning to do ANY travel through the end of this year. We are in the age bracket that needs to be careful, and he has some health issues. So I'm supporting him on this as it's more for peace of mind.

 

[slip]

The Hawaii Lieutenant Governor said yesterday that there was going to be an announcement today. Don’t know what it is though.

These restrictions are going to be eased at sometime and it will happen all over. Some hard decisions are going to have to be made with when they are going to happen.

After the restrictions are lifted people will make decisions on what they are going to do. I for one, will not tell anyone what they should do. These decisions are theirs to make.

 

[csodjd]

The Hawaii Lieutenant Governor said yesterday that there was going to be an announcement today. Don’t know what it is though.

These restrictions are going to be eased at sometime and it will happen all over. Some hard decisions are going to have to be made with when they are going to happen.

After the restrictions are lifted people will make decisions on what they are going to do. I for one, will not tell anyone what they should do. These decisions are theirs to make.

I'd expect that they will relax restrictions within Hawaii well before they relax restrictions on tourists entering Hawaii. So that's what I'd expect to hear first... that in a week or so they'll start to allow those in Hawaii to start getting back to normal, while maintaining their isolation from others.

 

[PigsDad]

Social Distancing

Air LInes should limit how many people fly on their planes during/after Covid-19
Passengers would likely be in full support of: removing the middle seats !

So you are also in favor of a 33% price increase for all tickets, right? Hint: not going to happen.

Kurt

 

[csodjd]

So you are also in favor of a 33% price increase for all tickets, right? Hint: not going to happen.

Kurt

Demand for first class may skyrocket.

 

[PigsDad]

Demand for first class may skyrocket.

Given that we are headed into what looks like a big recession, I don't see demand for luxury first class tickets increasing anytime soon.

Kurt

 

[vacationtime1]

Given that we are headed into what looks like a big recession, I don't see demand for luxury first class tickets increasing anytime soon.

Kurt

Recessions don't affect every economic class evenly. This one will be devastating to small business owners (especially in travel and hospitality), blue collar workers, and people living paycheck to paycheck.

Retirees will not be as affected -- and they purchase a disproportionate share of first class, non-business travel. People with jobs where they can work remotely will also suffer less economic impact.

I don't want to downplay the pain that is resulting, but we know it is not being borne equally.

 

[PigsDad]

Recessions don't affect every economic class evenly.

Of course they don't affect everyone evenly, but I don't see the demand for first class tickets "skyrocketing" as was suggested in the post I was replying to. Do you?

Kurt

 

[TravelTime]

Of course they don't affect everyone evenly, but I don't see the demand for first class tickets "skyrocketing" as was suggested in the post I was replying to. Do you?

Kurt

Demand for luxury goods usually go down during a recession. Many rich people are affected too. Not sure why there is a belief that rich people are insulated from recessions. Many are and many are not.

——-

Virus impact on fashion and luxury to be ‘worse than recession’
Sales forecast to drop by a third as lockdowns cut deeper than feared
Financial Times

The hit to fashion and luxury sales from coronavirus is expected to be much harder than previously feared, as a decade of growth comes to a crushing halt. Revenues are expected to plunge between 25 per cent and 35 per cent this year as a direct result of store closures owing to coronavirus lockdowns, according to the Boston Consulting Group. The impact on fashion and luxury — a category that includes apparel and accessories, watches and jewellery, and perfumes and cosmetics — is expected be more severe this year than the recession a decade ago, with total sales dropping between $450bn to $650bn from 2019 levels. The outlook is far bleaker than the firm suggested in late February, when it estimated sales for the year would decline by about 15 per cent. That was before the virus took hold in Europe and the US and was declared a pandemic.

 

[Luanne]

I just got an email that our home resort Maui Lea at Maui Hill in Kihei, Maui is closing down for the month of May.

 

[slip]

I just got an email that our home resort Maui Lea at Maui Hill in Kihei, Maui is closing down for the month of May.

It was just reported today, that there was a large cluster of positive tests at a hospital on Maui. It said the cluster of 15 and that the positives could have been in contact with between 300 to 500 people.

 

[Luanne]

@slip thanks.

 

[controller1]

Where did you see May 20? Only thing I have been able to find is "until further notice".

Here is the May 20th date: https://governor.hawaii.gov/wp-cont...ementary-Proclamation-for-COVID-19-signed.pdf

 

[csodjd]

Given that we are headed into what looks like a big recession, I don't see demand for luxury first class tickets increasing anytime soon.

Kurt

I was being facetious. That said, as others have said, plenty of people do just fine. I can tell you that in 2008-2010 where I live, good luck getting a table for dinner at Mastros without reservations!

 

[csodjd]

It was just reported today, that there was a large cluster of positive tests at a hospital on Maui. It said the cluster of 15 and that the positives could have been in contact with between 300 to 500 people.

That was actually in mid-March. They were tested and isolated.

Lack of proper protocols at Maui hospital may have contributed to COVID-19 cluster

At least 15 health care workers at the facility have tested positive.

www.hawaiinewsnow.com

 

[slip]

Lack of proper protocols at Maui hospital may have contributed to COVID-19 cluster

At least 15 health care workers at the facility have tested positive.

www.hawaiinewsnow.com

[/QUOTE]

I

That was actually in mid-March. They were tested and isolated.

Lack of proper protocols at Maui hospital may have contributed to COVID-19 cluster

At least 15 health care workers at the facility have tested positive.

www.hawaiinewsnow.com

It was just reported today. That’s why the article mentions that the Mayor was asked about a coverup.

 

[NTP66]

On top of that, Anderson stated the hospital wasn’t providing staff with enough personal protective equipment.

“I’ve had contact with a number of people in the hospital who essentially said PPE was being rationed," he said.

Unfortunately, this is similar to many health systems across the US, even today.

As for returning to the islands, I've spoken with multiple AA reps over the last week or so, and they expect AA to move forward with cancelling flights through June, as well. Personally, I wouldn't be comfortable visiting until we see how the downward slope is all over. Just because some states will be getting over their peaks soon doesn't mean it should be a free for all. We can't waste the work we've done staying home by immediately going back to normal, IMO. I canceled our June trip and will either try and rent somebody else's unit in the summer of 2021, or just wait until my next usage year (2022).