Tourism to Return?

[Kapolei]

Yes. Anyone can bring the virus back to the islands. So, everyone heading into Hawaii needs to be virus free. That's why the place to test is before boarding a flight headed to Hawaii. Though, if you are a resident at least you have a place/home where you can quarantine for two weeks.

This is true. But that won't help much if you have a office to go to upon return.

 

[Fredflintstone]

You may be right about pre screen tests. Boy, would that slow things down. It would deter people from travelling in the first place. Too much hassle. Maybe we return to car travel and avoid islands where a plane is required?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Kapolei]

You may be right about pre screen tests. Boy, would that slow things down. It would deter people from travelling in the first place. Too much hassle. Maybe we return to car travel and avoid islands where a plane is required?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

There are lot of different types of travelers. The person in Canada who comes to Hawaii every January for several weeks is not likely to be deterred. If Hawaii ends up being safer than most destinations that will be a highly marketable feature. Remember, Hawaii’s original charm came from being a place that wasn’t easy to get too.

 

[JIMinNC]

It might be. But alternatives? Have to start somewhere. It may be a royal PIA initially, and gradually get better. But it is -A- way to get open safely. Football games? Maybe limit to only 10,000 fans initially.

I know this. If I'm sitting on an airplane I'd like to know the people sitting behind me and on my row were tested and are either immune or proven not currently infected. Add a face covering and it's probably reasonably safe.

Interestingly, NBC News just did an interview with the CDC Director, Dr. Robert Redfield, talking about the topic of antibody testing we've been discussing. They didn't talk about travel screening, but the interview does give a lot of insight into how they see the tests being used over the next year or so.

NBC Interview with Dr. Robert Redfield

Sounds like for the next year or so, they see it primarily as a way to screen healthcare workers for possible immunity and to help employers structure their workforce to get basic production restarted in the months ahead. Also he seemed to allude to some statistical serology studies across the population over the next year to try to get a feel for the breadth of the spread that may have been undetected. To my read, it doesn't sound like screening travelers is likely to be a high priority for the available tests. I've included the link above, but here are a couple key quotes:

NBC News: Is there anything to antibody testing on an individual level? For those who want to go get that test to know if they can go back to work, is there any benefit to the individual? Or is antibody testing just a broad public health benefit?

Redfield: In certain circumstances it can have a benefit to the individual, for example, health care workers. It may help hospitals, if they look at the next wave, which I believe we will have in late fall or winter, they may be able to identify a group of health care professionals that are no longer likely to be susceptible. That may have impact on how the health care system can take care of coronavirus-specific individuals. I suspect hospitals will begin to look at having coronavirus-specific areas, if not hospitals, for next year. And coronavirus-specific nursing homes. It would obviously be useful in nursing homes to have health care professionals who are immune.

I think there is this assumption that it may accelerate confidence in some individuals in returning [to work] as though I'm immune, but I really think its major role is going to be in more of a public health role and the impact that it has, as we try to develop some alternative care delivery mechanisms to be available for fall and winter, when in fact we will probably have additional coronavirus infections.

NBC News: What's your prediction for when might we expect accurate large-scale antibody testing?

Redfield: I think the serology surveys are going to give us a better understanding of the differential disease penetration that occurred in different populations. For example, in younger individuals versus older individuals and individuals with pre-existing conditions, those without them. We'll have all of that crystallized, I think pretty well, over the next several months.

But that still won't answer the key question you asked me: Is the immune response protective or not? I think that's going to take us, pretty much, through the next year to be able to understand what the protection is, and how long we can see that last will probably take years for that to happen. The first serology tests have already been approved by the FDA. There's a number of other tests that are available, that are being validated. I think we'll see more large company serology tests be available in the weeks ahead.

Then it will just depend on what is really the strategic way that this test should be used. I think you will see it used in certain circumstances to help certain companies make decisions about back to work, particularly in the critical infrastructure. We really want to have a critical workforce that is going to be potentially immune to this same situation that is very likely. The virus is very likely to come back very significantly in the next coronavirus season, which will happen next December, January, February. I think that we will be much more prepared for it as it comes back a second time.

NBC News: So would the antibody tests be reserved for people like our health care workers who might need it most?

Redfield: I think the availability of the test for antibodies will become quite available.There will be employers that will want to have some knowledge, as they plan for 2021. It's definitely going to be aggressively employed in public health so we can do public health planning. But I do think it will be available for individual doctors and individual people to make a judgment about whether they want to know their antibody status.

 

[csodjd]

Sounds like for the next year or so, they see it primarily as a way to screen healthcare workers for possible immunity and to help employers structure their workforce to get basic production restarted in the months ahead. Also he seemed to allude to some statistical serology studies across the population over the next year to try to get a feel for the breadth of the spread that may have been undetected. To my read, it doesn't sound like screening travelers is likely to be a high priority for the available tests. I've included the link above, but here are a couple key quotes:

It may not be articulated, but it remains essential to travel by air or train, and to the financial recovery of airlines and tourism -- which is a major industry, not a trivial side show. Nevada, Hawaii, Florida, New York, these states (among others) need air, need travel, need tourism.

 

[csodjd]

Apparently I'm not alone in my thinking. The Lt. Gov. of Hawaii says if you don't show antibodies you may need to show you don't have the virus based on a test within 48 hours of departure and that this may be the key to reopening tourism in Hawaii.

Antibody testing may play key role in reopening tourism to Hawaii

A new blood test that reveals who’s immune to the coronavirus will likely play a key role in the state’s plan to allow visitors to return to Hawaii.

www.hawaiinewsnow.com

 

[JIMinNC]

Apparently I'm not alone in my thinking. The Lt. Gov. of Hawaii says if you don't show antibodies you may need to show you don't have the virus based on a test within 48 hours of departure and that this may be the key to reopening tourism in Hawaii.

Antibody testing may play key role in reopening tourism to Hawaii

A new blood test that reveals who’s immune to the coronavirus will likely play a key role in the state’s plan to allow visitors to return to Hawaii.

www.hawaiinewsnow.com

Interesting. For such an approach to work for discretionary travel, both types of testing (virus testing and antibody) would seem to have to be readily available to anyone on fairly short notice. Hard to see that happening any time soon based on where we are now. We have come a long way on testing, but still a long, long way to go to be able to scale to where you could go to any local CVS or Walgreens and get a test. It would seem that kind of ubiquitous availability would be a prerequisite for a discretionary use like travel.

 

[csodjd]

Interesting. For such an approach to work for discretionary travel, both types of testing (virus testing and antibody) would seem to have to be readily available to anyone on fairly short notice. Hard to see that happening any time soon based on where we are now. We have come a long way on testing, but still a long, long way to go to be able to scale to where you could go to any local CVS or Walgreens and get a test. It would seem that kind of ubiquitous availability would be a prerequisite for a discretionary use like travel.

Yes, pretty much. I can imagine an antibody test working much like an at-home pregnancy test. Tests for virus are more complex because a swab will always be needed to get "up to date" infection data (it can take days before it shows up in blood) so that requires a more skilled person to get a reliable test.

Nonetheless, it seems that's what's going to be needed before a place like Hawaii can safely reopen to tourists.

 

[cali-gal]

Excellent job by their management and their PR department for letting us know what is happening. Makes the customer feel safe and connected to their operations.

Except they are lying to their customers about their flights still operating. They aren't and won't be in the short term, but they aren't willing to give customers their money back. That doesn't make me feel very connected, just upset and frustrated.

 

[NTP66]

They aren't and won't be in the short term, but they aren't willing to give customers their money back. That doesn't make me feel very connected, just upset and frustrated.

They're not the only ones doing that, which is why the DOT had to order airlines to pay full cash refunds to those affected.

 

[csodjd]

Univ of Washington's new projections just came out, and they now include an important new data point, one that bodes very well for Hawaii. Here is the new graph:

Note the new section, "Containment Strategy." And the comment that in Hawaii it can begin after May 4. Moving into a containment strategy is a huge move toward being able to open up. It means they feel Hawaii can contain anyone infected and prevent spread.

Now they need to be able to apply that to tourists. That's where I say they should require a test for active infection before boarding a flight. Mixture of on-the-island containment with Emirates Airline testing strategy.

 

[pedro47]

Tourism around the world will take years to return at the level of 2018-2019 in the cruise industry, hospitality industry and the entertainment industries including Disney and Universal theme parks.

Now in the professional sport arena & the colleges arena : liked the NFL, NBA, MBL and the NCAA football and basketball they are safe. After one month, fans will return /folk to their pro and college stadiums.

However, if a second round of the coronavirus should kicked up. We are in big trouble in tourism and everything else. IMHO.

 

[burg1121]

However, if a second round of the coronavirus should kicked up. We are in big trouble in tourism and everything else. IMHO

Don't think it's if but when maybe it never leaves. This is the new normal. We will adjust and travel regardless. Read the new Stanford University study on how many of us probably have it.

Stanford antibody study estimates COVID-19 infected 50 to 85 times more people than testing identified in Santa Clara County

In the weeks since the coronavirus outbreak has squelched daily life in America, researchers have struggled to assess the true spread of the virus. But initial results from a Northern California st…

ktla.com

 

[csodjd]

Don't think it's if but when maybe it never leaves. This is the new normal. We will adjust and travel regardless. Read the new Stanford University study on how many of us probably have it.

Stanford antibody study estimates COVID-19 infected 50 to 85 times more people than testing identified in Santa Clara County

In the weeks since the coronavirus outbreak has squelched daily life in America, researchers have struggled to assess the true spread of the virus. But initial results from a Northern California st…

ktla.com

Interesting study, but take it with at least one grain of salt. The group tested were responding to an ad asking for people to be tested. So, it was not a random sample. The sample self-selected. That means a likely inherent bias. People that were sick and wonder if that sickness was COVID, for instance, would be more likely to volunteer to be tested than someone that's not been sick. So, even the authors caution that that's a flaw in the study that may have resulted in a higher positive than a random selection would have generated. Of course, it's also one community, and the nature of any highly contagious infection is community spread. So by itself it doesn't tell us much about a different community. We'll get that when other communities do the same study and see if they get the same results, with the ultimate testing being random so that the tested group is a true random cross-section of the community being tested.

 

[JIMinNC]

Now in the professional sport arena & the colleges arena : liked the NFL, NBA, MBL and the NCAA football and basketball they are safe. After one month, fans will return /folk to their pro and college stadiums.

I personally think stadiums full of people for sports or concerts will be one of the last things to be allowed to come back. I suspect NBA, MLB, NFL, and maybe NCAA will follow the lead of the PGA and play at some point for TV only, without fans.

 

[burg1121]

Personally I take just about everything about this with a grain of salt. Every day it seems like what was true yesterday has changed today. None of the data is correct until you have an accurate count on who was infected. Without knowing that everything else is flawed. But life will be back.

 

[csodjd]

Personally I take just about everything about this with a grain of salt. Every day it seems like what was true yesterday has changed today. None of the data is correct until you have an accurate count on who was infected. Without knowing that everything else is flawed. But life will be back.

As they are fond of saying, all models are wrong, but some are helpful.

 

[burg1121]

How true.

 

[Rjbeach2003]

Simply put we can't relax until there is a vaccine. In the meantime, in order to resume some semblance of normalcy, we need widespread testing, far more than the 11000/1,000,00 of today and anit-body testing. Until then it's a crap shoot.

 

[PigsDad]

Simply put we can't relax until there is a vaccine.

Simply put, if we can't relax orders until there is a vaccine in 1-2 years, there will be nothing left for us to return to.

Kurt

 

[csodjd]

Simply put, if we can't relax orders until there is a vaccine in 1-2 years, there will be nothing left for us to return to.

Kurt

Ventura County, which is immediately north of Los Angeles, just revised their Public Health Order to allow golf courses to open, subject to a bunch of rules. No carts. No pins. Cups inverted or otherwise designed to not require hands to enter the cup. Six-feet between players. Etc.

We are hoping the pin issue can be addressed like this:

 

[Luanne]

Simply put, if we can't relax orders until there is a vaccine in 1-2 years, there will be nothing left for us to return to.

Kurt

There is a difference between what @Rjbeach2003 said "Simply put we can't relax until there is a vaccine." and what you said. Relaxing and relaxing order are different, at least the way I read it. I may not be personally able to relax until there is a vaccine in place, but that doesn't mean that our governor can't relax the orders currently in place, once there is more testing available. Once again it goes back to what we are personally comfortable with and where we are (not physically but mentally, health wise, etc.)

 

[burg1121]

We need to protect the vulnerable and let the rest of the country get back to work. If you have to wait 1 to 2 years civil unrest will make the virus seem like the flu. Desperate people tend to do desperate things.

 

[csodjd]

We need to protect the vulnerable and let the rest of the country get back to work. If you have to wait 1 to 2 years civil unrest will make the virus seem like the flu. Desperate people tend to do desperate things.

I agree, with a caveat. That caveat is that before the country goes back to work, we have to have the ability to test, trace, and isolate new infections so that we don't create uncontrolled community spread a second time. If you're feeling sick you get tested. If you are positive you are contact traced and anyone testing positive is also isolated and their contacts are traced. Repeat. That ends that outbreak in its tracks, and allows us to go on. It is fundamental epidemiology. It is what public health departments do with sexually transmitted disease all the time, just on a bigger scale.

 

[Tamaradarann]

I agree, with a caveat. That caveat is that before the country goes back to work, we have to have the ability to test, trace, and isolate new infections so that we don't create uncontrolled community spread a second time. If you're feeling sick you get tested. If you are positive you are contact traced and anyone testing positive is also isolated and their contacts are traced. Repeat. That ends that outbreak in its tracks, and allows us to go on. It is fundamental epidemiology. It is what public health departments do with sexually transmitted disease all the time, just on a bigger scale.

I agree with this in theory. In practice I have concerns with the application. Statements by health authorities going back to the beginning of the spread of the virus emphasized that elderly and those with respirator conditions are the most vulnerable. While that is true, it gave the younger more healthy individuals the feeling that they didn't need to worry about the serverity of this virus. They thought that even if that got the virus the symtoms would be mild. Many of those people continued to socialize, not wearing masks or gloves, not worry about washing their hands or using disinfectants all the time like the elderly and most vulnerable did. I believe that this type of impression allowed the virus to spread more in the US than in China and Korea which probably didn't give the younger good health people a "pass". I still see information on TV that the elderly and those with respirator or heart conditions need to take precautions and stay away from other people and wash their hands frequently to stay safe.

If things are opened up those younger and in good health will most probably go back to socializing and conducting their lives like before the virus started to spread. If the do get infected they may have mild symtoms and not get tested but could infect others. Therefore, the others that they infect will not be traced. So they will infect others and the virus will spread.