Tourism to Return?

[HudsHut]

csodjd:
I appreciate your starting this thread, as I checked our Southwest account, and they had cancelled our end of May flights. (We had already cancelled our accommodations, but had not yet cancelled the flights.) As far as I can tell, they didn't send any notification.
I was just puzzled by the Second Supplementary Proclamation having the May 20, 2020 date, and the Third and Fourth ones having the April 30, 2020 end date. I do realize they can supplement the proclamation, and lengthen the date again, at any time.

 

[csodjd]

csodjd:
I appreciate your starting this thread, as I checked our Southwest account, and they had cancelled our end of May flights. (We had already cancelled our accommodations, but had not yet cancelled the flights.) As far as I can tell, they didn't send any notification.
I was just puzzled by the Second Supplementary Proclamation having the May 20, 2020 date, and the Third and Fourth ones having the April 30, 2020 end date. I do realize they can supplement the proclamation, and lengthen the date again, at any time.

Who knows. Maybe they got some heat about being too conservative given Hawaii's real need for tourism, so they decided to leave more of a crack in the door. Either way, I suspect Hawaii is going to protect those in Hawaii first and foremost, and not introduce new risk from mainland or Asia tourism until they are really confident it won't create a second wave once they have the first wave tamped down. But they appear to have had 21 new cases in Hawaii yesterday... so they're not there yet.

 

[Fredflintstone]

Who knows. Maybe they got some heat about being too conservative given Hawaii's real need for tourism, so they decided to leave more of a crack in the door. Either way, I suspect Hawaii is going to protect those in Hawaii first and foremost, and not introduce new risk from mainland or Asia tourism until they are really confident it won't create a second wave once they have the first wave tamped down. But they appear to have had 21 new cases in Hawaii yesterday... so they're not there yet.

It’s sure a delicate balance in Hawaii. My friends who live in Hawaii live simply due to the high costs of living. Many of them have multiple streams of income. They sell on eBay, etsy, do youtube, blog and work in the hospitality industry overall.

The problem I see in Hawaii is that folks overall can’t survive a long time shutting down the hospitality industry. Saying that, the military is huge in Hawaii and that will remain. It’s frankly their saving grace.

Economy or health....what a difficult choice! I have Hawaii booked still in December. I haven’t cancelled yet. I hope I don’t need too. However, I do respect the locales and if they choose to remain closed due to health, I will understand.

I pray for my friends in Hawaii that they can hold the financial fort long enough for this to clear.


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[geist1223]

If we can jump ahead for a moment to a time when air travel is open for business as usual (or something pretty close to that)....

I wonder what the status will be of a good number of attractions we wanted to patronize during our planned vacation to Hawaii (for example, boat excursions, van tours, etc). Not only would one suspect that some of them will be out of business but even when they do resume operations, it cannot be business as usual due to increased awareness of social distancing.

And what will happen to their pricing? The perception of Hawaii attraction pricing (from the perspective of someone who has never been there) was/is prices seemed extraordinarily high. But if attraction capacities are reduced to maintain social distancing, it seems likely prices will (at best) remain where they are and may even increase.

Is it reasonable to assume the pull of Hawaii is going to lessen (at least for a period of time) because costs will be out of reach for a greater number of people?

Our draw to Hawaii is not all the expensive activities. We snorkel from the Beach, we hike a lot, etc.

 

[Luanne]

Our draw to Hawaii is not all the expensive activities. We snorkel from the Beach, we hike a lot, etc.

Us too. But we also go out to eat alot, take whale watch tours, many things that currently are restricted.

 

[controller1]

I see a "Third Supplementary Proclamation" dated March 21, 2020 and a "Fourth Supplementary Proclamation" dated March 31, 2020, where the date in last paragraph reverts to April 30, 2020.

"I FURTHER DECLARE that the disaster emergency relief period shall continue through April 30, 2020, unless terminated or extended by a separate proclamation, whichever shall occur first."

2020 COVID19

dod.hawaii.gov

Does that mean that April 30, 2020 is currently the quarantine end date?

No it does not mean that the 14-day quarantine provision expires on April 30. Each of the Second, Third and Fourth Supplemental Proclamations addresses something different. Even though they are all COVID-19 related they do not address the same specific subject and therefore the Second Supplementary Proclamation does not revert to an April 30, 2020, expiration.

Second supplementary proclamation addresses 14-day quarantine and currently expires May 20, 2020.

Third supplementary proclamation addresses stay-at-home and business closures and currently expires April 30, 2020.

Fourth supplementary proclamation addresses inter-island travel and currently expires April 30, 2020.

 

[JIMinNC]

Since you enjoy digging down into the details, be sure you look at this: http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates which explains a lot of what they are doing and how they adapt to try and increase accuracy.

Just to update, the trend in Italy headed back in the right direction today, with 431 lost souls. Still outside of the worst-case prediction from Saturday's IMHE model, but closer to their high-end projection. I think they plan to release an updated projection model on Monday, so we'll see how it changes. I've added the April 13 projection from Friday below, so we can see how it changes in the new model. I'm focusing on Italy as a validator of the model since that is probably the country that has been at this the longest with the most reliable data (vs. China with data that may be less reliable), so may be the best proxy for how well the model does in projecting the USA, including states like Hawaii:

April 10 - predicted 335 (range 211-522) Actual: 570
April 11 - predicted 281 (range 177-439) Actual: 619
April 12 - predicted 242 (range 154-380) Actual: 431
April 13 - predicted 207 (range 135-326) Actual TBD

 

[Tamaradarann]

Our draw to Hawaii is not all the expensive activities. We snorkel from the Beach, we hike a lot, etc.

We have been to Hawaii for more than 1000 nights over the last 12 years. We have done the expensive touristy stuff years ago. However, the things we do and love are shutdown. We love to walk the beach. We love going to the symphony and the many small live theater productions. We love just walking around people watching on Kalakaua. We love to go to street for inexpensive dinners. We love to meet up with friends for dinner at restaurants. We love to go to Breweries and Beer Fests. We like to walk to Target, Sam's, and Walmart for food without restrictions, masks, gloves, the worry about being contaiminated by other people. Hawaii is not Hawaii for us right now. Hopefully we can go back and it will be great again.

 

[Maple_Leaf]

No it does not mean that the 14-day quarantine provision expires on April 30. Each of the Second, Third and Fourth Supplemental Proclamations addresses something different. Even though they are all COVID-19 related they do not address the same specific subject and therefore the Second Supplementary Proclamation does not revert to an April 30, 2020, expiration.

Second supplementary proclamation addresses 14-day quarantine and currently expires May 20, 2020.

Third supplementary proclamation addresses stay-at-home and business closures and currently expires April 30, 2020.

Fourth supplementary proclamation addresses inter-island travel and currently expires April 30, 2020.

These are just sunset clauses, subject to change based on how actual events unfold. If the proclamations didn't have these sunset clauses the local Chamber of Commerce heads would explode.

 

[controller1]

These are just sunset clauses, subject to change based on how actual events unfold. If the proclamations didn't have these sunset clauses the local Chamber of Commerce heads would explode.

Correct which is why I used the words "currently expires on" hoping everyone would realized "currently" means subject to change!

 

[csodjd]

Economy or health....what a difficult choice! I have Hawaii booked still in December. I haven’t cancelled yet. I hope I don’t need too. However, I do respect the locales and if they choose to remain closed due to health, I will understand.

Very speculative at this point, but it may depend more on where you are coming from and/or testing than anything else.

That said, I can imagine a scenario where people flying into Hawaii from anywhere outside Hawaii must submit to a two tests upon arrival: antibody (blood prick with near instant results), and if negative, virus (rapid, 15 min or less). If positive for antibodies or negative for virus... go enjoy yourself. If positive for virus, either return to where you came from or mask and 14 days confinement to your room. They would strongly encourage everyone to receive both tests within 24 hours of departure to Hawaii so people would know what to expect when they arrive and are tested and don't end up disappointed. This presumes good quick testing is readily available, but it seems that (i) will be the case in the not too distant future and (ii) will be necessary for any kind of economic recovery anywhere. The tests would be administered by Hawaii health officials at the airport -- just like going through customs when you fly into the US from outside the US.

 

[controller1]

Very speculative at this point, but it may depend more on where you are coming from and/or testing than anything else.

I can't imagine but only in a worst case scenario would a December Hawaii trip be speculative as of today. If it is truly speculative, the economy will not recover for a decade or more as the Hawaiian tourism economy cannot survive the current scenario for that long a time.

 

[csodjd]

I can't imagine but only in a worst case scenario would a December Hawaii trip be speculative as of today. If it is truly speculative, the economy will not recover for a decade or more as the Hawaiian tourism economy cannot survive the current scenario for that long a time.

I meant speculative as to whether it will matter where you are coming from, not when they will open up. That too is speculative, but I agree it will be long before December. I think June/July is more likely. But the process they'll adopt is speculative.

 

[JIMinNC]

I wish I was as optimistic as you guys about next winter. I consider the odds our Jan/Feb 2021 Hawaii trip will happen to be 50-50 at best. I do think it will be a long, long time before the tourism economy recovers. It would seem that basic life has to be able to return to at least a semi-normal state before state governments will want to open themselves up to an influx of tourists. No one seems to think the virus is going away, so it will likely still be with us next winter. Hope I’m wrong.

 

[bnoble]

I wish I was as optimistic as you guys about next winter. I consider the odds our Jan/Feb 2021 Hawaii trip will happen to be 50-50 at best.

We have a late December/early January trip planned, and I have similar odds on that.

 

[csodjd]

I wish I was as optimistic as you guys about next winter. I consider the odds our Jan/Feb 2021 Hawaii trip will happen to be 50-50 at best. I do think it will be a long, long time before the tourism economy recovers. It would seem that basic life has to be able to return to at least a semi-normal state before state governments will want to open themselves up to an influx of tourists. No one seems to think the virus is going away, so it will likely still be with us next winter. Hope I’m wrong.

I've developed a plan that would protect and insulate Hawaii and allow it to open entirely and without restrictions. Probably has holes, but here goes....

It starts with Hawaii being clean - no new cases on any island for at least two weeks. It assumes availability of rapid tests for antibodies (near instant) and for virus (15 min or less). I think those are both around the corner. From there, it's pretty simple and easy.

All departures for Hawaii are handled like customs similar to when you arrive in the US from outside the US. That is, you must be individually evaluated. There would be a charge of, say, $25/person to fund this. Before boarding a plane everyone receives a rapid antibody test. If positive they check their luggage and head off for a vacation. If negative they then receive a virus test. If negative they check their luggage and head off for a vacation. They are not immune, but also not infected. If positive for virus they can't board the flight, nor can anyone in their traveling party (family unit, etc.) because those people were exposed and could go positive soon. All testing is done by Hawaii health authorities.

Travelers would be encouraged to self-test before heading to the airport so they aren't surprised or disappointed, but the self-tests don't come into play. Must pass the Hawaii health authority tests.

This would also work for Disney, football games, etc. It would slow entry so you'd have to arrive ahead, but once a vaccine is out you could WAIVE testing by showing you were vaccinated at least X days prior (whatever the immunity ramp up is).

 

[controller1]

It would seem that basic life has to be able to return to at least a semi-normal state before state governments will want to open themselves up to an influx of tourists.

When you look at the above sentence it is quite ironic for Hawaii and other tourist-heavy economies. A normal basic life or even a semi-normal basic life in Hawaii is one dominated by tourism which is the economic driver. Something like which comes first, the chicken or the egg...

 

[JIMinNC]

I've developed a plan that would protect and insulate Hawaii and allow it to open entirely and without restrictions. Probably has holes, but here goes....

It starts with Hawaii being clean - no new cases on any island for at least two weeks. It assumes availability of rapid tests for antibodies (near instant) and for virus (15 min or less). I think those are both around the corner. From there, it's pretty simple and easy.

All departures for Hawaii are handled like customs similar to when you arrive in the US from outside the US. That is, you must be individually evaluated. There would be a charge of, say, $25/person to fund this. Before boarding a plane everyone receives a rapid antibody test. If positive they check their luggage and head off for a vacation. If negative they then receive a virus test. If negative they check their luggage and head off for a vacation. They are not immune, but also not infected. If positive for virus they can't board the flight, nor can anyone in their traveling party (family unit, etc.) because those people were exposed and could go positive soon. All testing is done by Hawaii health authorities.

Travelers would be encouraged to self-test before heading to the airport so they aren't surprised or disappointed, but the self-tests don't come into play. Must pass the Hawaii health authority tests.

This would also work for Disney, football games, etc. It would slow entry so you'd have to arrive ahead, but once a vaccine is out you could WAIVE testing by showing you were vaccinated at least X days prior (whatever the immunity ramp up is).

I think, in concept, that approach could work, but there would seem to be two big challenges - throughput and availability of tests. The time it would take to administer these tests to a plane load of people (or a 70k seat stadium or Disney) would be more than anything experienced in most customs environments. Just the lines it could create could become a virus spread risk. There is also the elephant in the room with this whole "massively expanded testing" approach - with literally every country in the world trying to surge the availability of testing to allow some return of their economies, do we have enough manufacturing capacity in the world to quickly produce enough for the whole world in any kind of a reasonable time frame? Obviously any quantity is possible given enough time, but you can't stand up a new factory overnight.

When you look at the above sentence it is quite ironic for Hawaii and other tourist-heavy economies. A normal basic life or even a semi-normal basic life in Hawaii is one dominated by tourism which is the economic driver. Something like which comes first, the chicken or the egg...

And that is the irony of the situation we find ourselves in. Very much a chicken or the egg scenario. There has also always been a love-hate relationship in tourist areas between locals and tourists. The locals love the economic impact of the tourists, but don't like the traffic, congestion, competition for resources, etc. On Hilton Head Island in SC, vocal locals there have been demanding that the town council not only ban short-term rentals, but also have asked them to ban non-full-time-resident property owners from using their second homes until there is a tested and proven vaccine. They've also asked that the single bridge onto the island be closed to non-full-time residents, allowing only full-time residents and workers on the island until further notice. So far the town council has followed the lead of the governor and has not implemented the more stringent restrictions, but the locals there are in an uproar and have resorted to putting nasty notes and threats on cars with out-of-state license plates.

 

[bnoble]

Something like which comes first, the chicken or the egg...

I'm not sure it is so intractable. Dead people can't benefit from tourism income.

 

[csodjd]

I think, in concept, that approach could work, but there would seem to be two big challenges - throughput and availability of tests. The time it would take to administer these tests to a plane load of people (or a 70k seat stadium or Disney) would be more than anything experienced in most customs environments. Just the lines it could create could become a virus spread risk. There is also the elephant in the room with this whole "massively expanded testing" approach - with literally every country in the world trying to surge the availability of testing to allow some return of their economies, do we have enough manufacturing capacity in the world to quickly produce enough for the whole world in any kind of a reasonable time frame? Obviously any quantity is possible given enough time, but you can't stand up a new factory overnight.

It's always relatively easy to say why something won't work, but progress occurs when people say how they will make something work. Yes, it would take time. Arrive at the airport early. Arrive too late to get tested, you don't go. Problem solved.

Massively expanded testing is a precondition to any low-risk recovery and reopening. Each country needs to take responsibility for making tests for their people. Do we have enough manufacturing capacity? If not, create more. We'll need it whether it is the NFL, Disney, Hawaii, Las Vegas, or your hair salon. Some said you can't make a hospital virtually overnight. Apparently you can. Make enough tests and we won't need all those people making respirators.

 

[JIMinNC]

It's always relatively easy to say why something won't work, but progress occurs when people say how they will make something work. Yes, it would take time. Arrive at the airport early. Arrive too late to get tested, you don't go. Problem solved.

Massively expanded testing is a precondition to any low-risk recovery and reopening. Each country needs to take responsibility for making tests for their people. Do we have enough manufacturing capacity? If not, create more. We'll need it whether it is the NFL, Disney, Hawaii, Las Vegas, or your hair salon. Some said you can't make a hospital virtually overnight. Apparently you can. Make enough tests and we won't need all those people making respirators.

I absolutely agree it can be done, my main question is how long will it take? - both for prescreening before entry/flight and manufacturing the capacity to do that.

Would you have to arrive at the airport two or three hours earlier than we have in the past? - meaning arrive 4-5 hours before flight? Would it take 3-4 hours to enter a stadium? How long will it take to increase the test manufacturing capacity? Months? Years? I have no idea for any of that, it just seems like an enormous challenge to do rapidly.

 

[csodjd]

I absolutely agree it can be done, my main question is how long will it take? - both for prescreening before entry/flight and manufacturing the capacity to do that.

Would you have to arrive at the airport two or three hours earlier than we have in the past? - meaning arrive 4-5 hours before flight? Would it take 3-4 hours to enter a stadium? How long will it take to increase the test manufacturing capacity? Months? Years? I have no idea for any of that, it just seems like an enormous challenge to do rapidly.

It might be. But alternatives? Have to start somewhere. It may be a royal PIA initially, and gradually get better. But it is -A- way to get open safely. Football games? Maybe limit to only 10,000 fans initially.

I know this. If I'm sitting on an airplane I'd like to know the people sitting behind me and on my row were tested and are either immune or proven not currently infected. Add a face covering and it's probably reasonably safe.

 

[NTP66]

Royal PITA beats rolling the dice and doing nothing, for me. I’m willing to do whatever it takes.

 

[Kapolei]

Any extended restrictions on arrivals will affect Hawaii residents equally. We are not going to be able to go anywhere without going through the same restrictions as everyone else when we return.

 

[csodjd]

Any extended restrictions on arrivals will affect Hawaii residents equally. We are not going to be able to go anywhere without going through the same restrictions as everyone else when we return.

Yes. Anyone can bring the virus back to the islands. So, everyone heading into Hawaii needs to be virus free. That's why the place to test is before boarding a flight headed to Hawaii. Though, if you are a resident at least you have a place/home where you can quarantine for two weeks.