Tourism to Return?

[csodjd]

So here is some data JUST released out of a USC/Los Angeles study. They tested about 863 adults using a highly accurate antibody serology test. It was a fairly random sample except that the sample was adjusted to match the demographics of Los Angeles County in terms of race and ethnicity. Currently LA County reports about 14,000 cases.

The study shows 4.1% tested positive for COVID antibodies. MOE about +/-1%. About 6% male, 2% female. This equates to about 300,000 adults, about 35x the currently reported LA total (which tests for active infection), have been exposed to or had the virus. Many reported symptoms in the study, but they cannot opine on whether those symptoms were from COVID or not since it could have been a cold, flu, etc., no way to know.

Early conclusions are that the mortality rate is notably lower than presumed, and about 96% of adults are still vulnerable (without opining on whether the 4% is immune or not). Any hope that there is a level of herd immunity is wishful thinking and there is still a good sized risk of resurgence of we pull back too soon.

P.S. Georgia just announced they are pulling back almost all restrictions. Restaurants, tattoo, message parlors, hair and nail, gyms, bowling allies, etc, all opening in Georgia on Friday and the Governor said local ordinances cannot block the openings. I guess now we have a living LAB to see what happens if/when you remove restrictions.

 

[Tamaradarann]

So here is some data JUST released out of a USC/Los Angeles study. They tested about 863 adults using a highly accurate antibody serology test. It was a fairly random sample except that the sample was adjusted to match the demographics of Los Angeles County in terms of race and ethnicity. Currently LA County reports about 14,000 cases.

The study shows 4.1% tested positive for COVID antibodies. MOE about +/-1%. About 6% male, 2% female. This equates to about 300,000 adults, about 35x the currently reported LA total (which tests for active infection), have been exposed to or had the virus. Many reported symptoms in the study, but they cannot opine on whether those symptoms were from COVID or not since it could have been a cold, flu, etc., no way to know.

Early conclusions are that the mortality rate is notably lower than presumed, and about 96% of adults are still vulnerable (without opining on whether the 4% is immune or not). Any hope that there is a level of herd immunity is wishful thinking and there is still a good sized risk of resurgence of we pull back too soon.

P.S. Georgia just announced they are pulling back almost all restrictions. Restaurants, tattoo, message parlors, hair and nail, gyms, bowling allies, etc, all opening in Georgia on Friday and the Governor said local ordinances cannot block the openings. I guess now we have a living LAB to see what happens if/when you remove restrictions.

I read the information you reported from the USC/LA study with interest. The fact that the mortality rate is much lower than presumed is great news for all. Furhtermore, since NY State has had so many reported cases if 35X the number reported can be projected then a great number of New Yorkers could have the antibodies which is great news for where we live when they open up New York State

 

[MrockStar]

Sweedon

So here is some data JUST released out of a USC/Los Angeles study. They tested about 863 adults using a highly accurate antibody serology test. It was a fairly random sample except that the sample was adjusted to match the demographics of Los Angeles County in terms of race and ethnicity. Currently LA County reports about 14,000 cases.

The study shows 4.1% tested positive for COVID antibodies. MOE about +/-1%. About 6% male, 2% female. This equates to about 300,000 adults, about 35x the currently reported LA total (which tests for active infection), have been exposed to or had the virus. Many reported symptoms in the study, but they cannot opine on whether those symptoms were from COVID or not since it could have been a cold, flu, etc., no way to know.

Early conclusions are that the mortality rate is notably lower than presumed, and about 96% of adults are still vulnerable (without opining on whether the 4% is immune or not). Any hope that there is a level of herd immunity is wishful thinking and there is still a good sized risk of resurgence of we pull back too soon.

P.S. Georgia just announced they are pulling back almost all restrictions. Restaurants, tattoo, message parlors, hair and nail, gyms, bowling allies, etc, all opening in Georgia on Friday and the Governor said local ordinances cannot block the openings. I guess now we have a living LAB to see what happens if/when you remove restrictions.

Sweden is a much larger living Lab and will produce a lot of very important and valuable data for world scientists.

 

[csodjd]

Sweedon
Sweden is a much larger living Lab and will produce a lot of very important and valuable data for world scientists.

Maybe. But maybe not. The two neighbors honkered down hard and early (Norway and Finland). That may offer Sweden a measure of help. Also, geography plays a role, as does the number of people bringing infection into the community. All of that to say that communities and countries can differ considerably.

It will be interesting to watch and see what happens in Georgia 2-4 weeks from today. Will they have a big spike? Epidemiology would say yes.

 

[csodjd]

I read the information you reported from the USC/LA study with interest. The fact that the mortality rate is much lower than presumed is great news for all. Furhtermore, since NY State has had so many reported cases if 35X the number reported can be projected then a great number of New Yorkers could have the antibodies which is great news for where we live when they open up New York State

They said this about the mortality rate. Classic double edged sword. On one hand, rate as a percentage is lower. On the other hand, a lot of people have died with only a 4% infection rate, which means if that rate reaches 40% you're looking at 10x the number of fatalities we have now. I think they would have preferred to find 10 or 15% antibody positive.

NY needs a similar study done. Things like the NY mass transit system may have led to a much higher contagion rate and maybe they get to 10%. Don't know until it is studied.

 

[Tamaradarann]

They said this about the mortality rate. Classic double edged sword. On one hand, rate as a percentage is lower. On the other hand, a lot of people have died with only a 4% infection rate, which means if that rate reaches 40% you're looking at 10x the number of fatalities we have now. I think they would have preferred to find 10 or 15% antibody positive.

NY needs a similar study done. Things like the NY mass transit system may have led to a much higher contagion rate and maybe they get to 10%. Don't know until it is studied.

So LA County has around about 14,000 confirmed cases and around 700 deaths for approximately a 5% death rate which is pretty high. Since the study showed a 4% infection rate which calculates out to about 300,000 people have been really infected the death rate is about .25% which is much lower and much better. If the infection rate does reach 40% that would mean about 7000 deaths which is certainly not desirable. Therefore, a certain degree of social distancing until a vacine is developed would be prudent.

NY City has about 140,000 confirmed cases and about 10,000 deaths which is a high 7% death rate. However, if the actual number of people who have been infected is 35X confirmed cases as LA then about 50% of all New Yorkers have been infected.

 

[csodjd]

So LA County has around about 14,000 confirmed cases and around 700 deaths for approximately a 5% death rate which is pretty high. Since the study showed a 4% infection rate which calculates out to about 300,000 people have been really infected the death rate is about .25% which is much lower and much better. If the infection rate does reach 40% that would mean about 7000 deaths which is certainly not desirable. Therefore, a certain degree of social distancing until a vacine is developed would be prudent.

NY City has about 140,000 confirmed cases and about 10,000 deaths which is a high 7% death rate. However, if the actual number of people who have been infected is 35X confirmed cases as LA then about 50% of all New Yorkers have been infected.

Death rates, especially where numbers are smaller, can be very misleading. Get one or two bad retirement homes and you can throw the curve terribly. For instance, if you look at Hawaii's recent new case numbers it can look bad, but if you recognize that there were two large outbreaks, the McDonalds on the big Island and the hospital (of all places) in Maui, you realize that without those, almost no new cases in Hawaii in a week or so.

My guess is NY, because of factors like the transit system, and elevators, probably has a notably higher infection rate than more dispersed, drive yourself everywhere, Los Angeles. I'm not sure you can extrapolate Los Angeles to NY. Very different landscapes in terms of disease transmission. The NY subways were like sitting in a petri dish.

 

[Tamaradarann]

I totally agree that New York has a much higher infection rate! If the numbers that I threw out are correct the 50% of all New Yorkers having been infected is a very high infection rate and would translate to about 4 million people in NYC. That being said: In February when I was in Hawaii I had a bad cough, which I usual do get with a cold. I went to the Straub Clinic but was NOT tested for the virus. They prescribed an antibiotic and cough medicine and I recovered in about a week and stopped coughing. Could I have had the virus? If in fact the number of people with the antibodies is 35X those that have been tested and are positive then perhaps alot of people have had a very mild case of the virus and have the antibodies. To me that is very good news.

 

[csodjd]

I totally agree that New York has a much higher infection rate! If the numbers that I threw out are correct the 50% of all New Yorkers having been infected is a very high infection rate and would translate to about 4 million people in NYC. That being said: In February when I was in Hawaii I had a bad cough, which I usual do get with a cold. I went to the Straub Clinic but was NOT tested for the virus. They prescribed an antibiotic and cough medicine and I recovered in about a week and stopped coughing. Could I have had the virus? If in fact the number of people with the antibodies is 35X those that have been tested and are positive then perhaps alot of people have had a very mild case of the virus and have the antibodies. To me that is very good news.

The more people that HAVE the antibodies, the better it is, to be sure. Having antibodies is the clinical equivalent of sheltering in place or being vaccinated. You can't get it and you can't give it to anyone. (Assuming there is immunity for at least a period of time, as there likely is.) But the Los Angeles study suggests that about 95-96% do NOT have antibodies. So there is a long way to go.

 

[burg1121]

First off they don't know the severity of the virus. I think it's interesting that so many decisions are made on incomplete data. The country of Sweden didn't close down and they aren't all dying in the streets. At some point the public will realize our government officials are still bound by bill of rights and the constitution.

 

[Luanne]

First off they don't know the severity of the virus. I think it's interesting that so many decisions are made on incomplete data. The country of Sweden didn't close down and they aren't all dying in the streets. At some point the public will realize our government officials are still bound by bill of rights and the constitution.

Sweden may not be doing as well as you think.

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-sweden-and-norway-handled-coronavirus-differently-2020-4

 

[csodjd]

First off they don't know the severity of the virus. I think it's interesting that so many decisions are made on incomplete data. The country of Sweden didn't close down and they aren't all dying in the streets. At some point the public will realize our government officials are still bound by bill of rights and the constitution.

What role or even duty does the government have in protecting the health and safety of the American people from an epidemic?

It is instructional to compare Sweden to Finland, neighbors of about the same populations. SO FAR, about 1600 deaths in Sweden and 100 in Finland. Assume for every death there are likely a handful of people that were very sick, survived, but will experience significant morbidity as a result (damage to lungs, heart, psychy, etc.).

Also, be mindful that Sweden has not peaked according to the latest models, and is looking at this. Note the shortage of beds and ICU beds expected in the next week or so. One might say that it is interesting how many opinions are formed on incomplete data.

 

[JIMinNC]

What role or even duty does the government have in protecting the health and safety of the American people from an epidemic?

It is instructional to compare Sweden to Finland, neighbors of about the same populations. SO FAR, about 1600 deaths in Sweden and 100 in Finland. Assume for every death there are likely a handful of people that were very sick, survived, but will experience significant morbidity as a result (damage to lungs, heart, psychy, etc.).

Also, be mindful that Sweden has not peaked according to the latest models, and is looking at this. Note the shortage of beds and ICU beds expected in the next week or so. One might say that it is interesting how many opinions are formed on incomplete data.

View attachment 19498

Those available bed and available ICU numbers seem really low for the entire country of Sweden. That can't be right. Sweden has 10 million people.

 

[csodjd]

Those available bed and available ICU numbers seem really low for the entire country of Sweden. That can't be right. Sweden has 10 million people.

Well, do remember that COVID doesn't stop all the other things that put people in the hospital. Those numbers take into account all possible beds less all beds in use from all causes, including COVID. There's no reason to believe their factual data is wrong. The Worldometer says they have 13000 "active" cases right now. No doubt many are filling hospital beds and that's over and above normal levels.

 

[JIMinNC]

Well, do remember that COVID doesn't stop all the other things that put people in the hospital. Those numbers take into account all possible beds less all beds in use from all causes, including COVID. There's no reason to believe their factual data is wrong. The Worldometer says they have 13000 "active" cases right now. No doubt many are filling hospital beds and that's over and above normal levels.

Yeah, you're right, I just looked at their FAQs and they confirmed that is beds estimated available for COVID after considering other hospitalizations. But they also say they do not update these counts in real time and they are a point in time estimate and do not reflect current conditions on the ground. I haven't seen any reporting that their hospitals are yet being over loaded, but their approach certainly offers a laboratory into what would happen if economic considerations are weighed more heavily than they are being weighed in most the rest of the world. It's a risky approach, but if their case-counts do start to drop over the next 2-3 weeks and they don't overload their system, they may look like geniuses. If things blow up there, then they'll look like fools.

 

[lynne]

Don't expect the airlines to resume flights to the islands anytime soon. I am sure the other airlines currently flying here will also request route cuts. DOT is allowing these cuts through September of this year.

Why DOT Just Approved Major Route Cuts For Alaska and Hawaiian

Major change from DOT to impact Hawaiian Airlines and Alaska Airlines Hawaii flights, perhaps others.

beatofhawaii.com

 

[Tamaradarann]

The more people that HAVE the antibodies, the better it is, to be sure. Having antibodies is the clinical equivalent of sheltering in place or being vaccinated. You can't get it and you can't give it to anyone. (Assuming there is immunity for at least a period of time, as there likely is.) But the Los Angeles study suggests that about 95-96% do NOT have antibodies. So there is a long way to go.

However, since New York has had so many more cases most probably many more people do have antibodies. In fact, as contray as it may seem this summer when the projections of the Univesity of Washington say that the hospitalizations will be close to zero all over the United States if Hawaii opens up for visitors those from New York will be the safest to allow to come.

 

[MrockStar]

Yeah, you're right, I just looked at their FAQs and they confirmed that is beds estimated available for COVID after considering other hospitalizations. But they also say they do not update these counts in real time and they are a point in time estimate and do not reflect current conditions on the ground. I haven't seen any reporting that their hospitals are yet being over loaded, but their approach certainly offers a laboratory into what would happen if economic considerations are weighed more heavily than they are being weighed in most the rest of the world. It's a risky approach, but if their case-counts do start to drop over the next 2-3 weeks and they don't overload their system, they may look like geniuses. If things blow up there, then they'll look like fools.

Two weeks notice !!!

 

[csodjd]

However, since New York has had so many more cases most probably many more people do have antibodies. In fact, as contray as it may seem this summer when the projections of the Univesity of Washington say that the hospitalizations will be close to zero all over the United States if Hawaii opens up for visitors those from New York will be the safest to allow to come.

Maybe? But they'd also be most likely to be infected and asymptomatic.

 

[Tamaradarann]

Maybe? But they'd also be most likely to be infected and asymptomatic.

That could be possible and likely right now. However, if the hospitalizations are down to zero that would mean that the virus is not in the community spread phase and is not actively being circulated like right now. If additional safety was desired a quick exam going over whether the passenger had the disease and if not do they have symptoms right now. If the passenger wasn't already confirmed to have the disease a corona virus test could be required but I believe that the results take longer to obtain and would need to be previously done.

 

[csodjd]

That could be possible and likely right now. However, if the hospitalizations are down to zero that would mean that the virus is not in the community spread phase and is not actively being circulated like right now. If additional safety was desired a quick exam going over whether the passenger had the disease and if not do they have symptoms right now. If the passenger wasn't already confirmed to have the disease a corona virus test could be required but I believe that the results take longer to obtain and would need to be previously done.

I think the concept will be, if someone gets sick in Hawaii, they'll be able to rapidly test them. If positive, they'll be able to contract trace and test everyone they were in pretty close contact with and isolate those people.

The primary risk will not be community spread, it will be that we'll go to Hawaii, come into contact with someone, get infected, and end up in quarantine for our trip (and even unable to leave and incur costs, hassles, etc., if we get sick). That risk can be minimized if you are positive for antibodies, or if they do testing for infection before flying to Hawaii or immediately upon arrival.

 

[Tamaradarann]

I think the concept will be, if someone gets sick in Hawaii, they'll be able to rapidly test them. If positive, they'll be able to contract trace and test everyone they were in pretty close contact with and isolate those people.

The primary risk will not be community spread, it will be that we'll go to Hawaii, come into contact with someone, get infected, and end up in quarantine for our trip (and even unable to leave and incur costs, hassles, etc., if we get sick). That risk can be minimized if you are positive for antibodies, or if they do testing for infection before flying to Hawaii or immediately upon arrival.

My comment about community spread not being a concern was with respect to the safety for Hawaii of letting in perspective travellers Hawaii from New York to Hawaii if hospitalizations were zero or close to zero in New York. In view of the study done by USC/LA that found that many people have been exposed and have had the disease without significant symptoms waiting to test people who are sick with signifant symptoms may not prevent the spread of this disease.