Tourism to Return?

[tompalm]

A friend of mine is a pilot for Hawaiian and said that he is off until July when Hawaiian plans to start normal operations. They might have flights in June, but not a full schedule. Also, if the virus is still alive and being spread, don‘t expect normal flight ops to start in July. Schools in Hawaii will not start until fall and that is only if no community virus infections have been transmitted in four weeks. Don’t make any plans more than a couple weeks in advance and you know for certain that restrictions have been lifted.

 

[csodjd]

A friend of mine is a pilot for Hawaiian and said that he is off until July when Hawaiian plans to start normal operations. They might have flights in June, but not a full schedule. Also, if the virus is still alive and being spread, don‘t expect normal flight ops to start in July. Schools in Hawaii will not start until fall and that is only if no community virus infections have been transmitted in four weeks. Don’t make any plans more than a couple weeks in advance and you know for certain that restrictions have been lifted.

Yet Hawaiian is playing coy with cancellations. I used their "Chat" to try and cancel a couple of reservations and get a refund for flight HA 41, LAX-OGG, on May 22. The flight does not appear on their schedule anymore, so I assumed it was canceled. I was told no, it's not canceled, it's still scheduled to go, they just aren't selling any more tickets for the flight. HA. I called BS. They just wanted me to cancel so they didn't have to refund. Sooner or later they will have to admit the flight is canceled.

 

[b2bailey]

Actually, the latest models show California resource use peaks in five days, will only need 6 hospital beds in the entire state for COVID by May 23 and zero by May 30, and deaths/day will hit 0 by May 16. That means very few new cases by early May since mortality lags 1-2 weeks behind infection. Hawaii is ahead of CA on all those measures.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

It would seem that by May 20 for Hawaii there is no tourist safer than one from CA, and no place safer for someone in CA to go than Hawaii. The drive to/from the airport is probably more dangerous than COVID by May 20.

Hadn't seen this before, but 6 sickbeds in the entire state? That seems near impossible.

 

[NTP66]

Yet Hawaiian is playing coy with cancellations. I used their "Chat" to try and cancel a couple of reservations and get a refund for flight HA 41, LAX-OGG, on May 22. The flight does not appear on their schedule anymore, so I assumed it was canceled. I was told no, it's not canceled, it's still scheduled to go, they just aren't selling any more tickets for the flight. HA. I called BS. They just wanted me to cancel so they didn't have to refund. Sooner or later they will have to admit the flight is canceled.

It'll most likely be cancelled, but you can always HUCA to get a different CSR. I saw this mentioned earlier this week here: https://beatofhawaii.com/wait-to-get-your-refund-and-maybe-more-hawaii-flights-cancelled/

 

[csodjd]

Hadn't seen this before, but 6 sickbeds in the entire state? That seems near impossible.

Well, remember that 80% have no complications, so extrapolating backward that means only about 40-50 new cases, meaning community spread almost gone. Assumes continuing excellent compliance with masks and distancing, of course.

 

[TravelTime]

I was being facetious. That said, as others have said, plenty of people do just fine. I can tell you that in 2008-2010 where I live, good luck getting a table for dinner at Mastros without reservations!

Many people will do just fine now as in 2008-2010. Even though I am worried about my small business, I am not especially worried about us personally. We have plenty of savings to shelter us during this recession. But anything can happen. The next surprise could be just around the corner. So I have lost my nativity regarding that life can be secure.

 

[csodjd]

Many people will do just fine now as in 2008-2010. Even though I am worried about my small business, I am not especially worried about us personally. We have plenty of savings to shelter us during this recession. But anything can happen. The next surprise could be just around the corner. So I have lost my nativity regarding that life can be secure.

Sounds like the start to a good insurance company commercial.

 

[TravelTime]

Sounds like the start to a good insurance company commercial.

Ha, ha, LOL. Yes I agree it would be a good insurance commercial, assuming we can get Covid-19 insurance!

 

[csodjd]

Ha, ha, LOL. Yes I agree it would be a good insurance commercial, assuming we can get Covid-19 insurance!

You can be pretty certain that if you could have, you won't be able to anymore. I wonder if Travel Insurance will be impacted or change their policies as a result of this.

 

[Luanne]

You can be pretty certain that if you could have, you won't be able to anymore. I wonder if Travel Insurance will be impacted or change their policies as a result of this.

I thought I heard they already were.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/christ...us-has-changed-travel-insurance/#66a8c3731664

 

[csodjd]

I thought I heard they already were.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/christ...us-has-changed-travel-insurance/#66a8c3731664

Well, that certainly addresses the question. But if they don't cover anything, they also shoot themselves in the foot, other than to prey on the unsuspecting. Because my wife has a condition that could prevent us from taking a trip I've started buying insurance for expensive trips. I've looked at the policies and they have "pre-existing condition" exclusions. But they define a pre-existing condition in a non-intuitive way. As I understand it, they refer to conditions for which you obtained medical care in the days before the trip. Or they have useless limits, like this in Allianz:

Trip Cancellation Coverage You have to cancel your trip before you depart. Pre-existing Medical Condition Limit: Claims for trip cancellation due to a pre-existing medical condition can be covered up to the maximum trip cancellation benefit limit, not to exceed $200.00. Conditions apply.

Then they define pre-existing condition:

An injury, illness, or medical condition that, within the 120 days prior to and including the purchase date of this certificate:
1. Caused a person to seek medical examination, diagnosis, care, or treatment by a doctor;
2. Presented symptoms; or
3. Required a person to take medication prescribed by a doctor (unless the condition or symptoms are controlled by that prescription, and the prescription has not changed).
The illness, injury, or medical condition does not need to be formally diagnosed in order to be considered a pre-existing medical condition.

So if you have a heart attack a week before your trip, sorry, only $200 of coverage.

 

[Kapolei]

A friend of mine is a pilot for Hawaiian and said that he is off until July when Hawaiian plans to start normal operations. They might have flights in June, but not a full schedule. Also, if the virus is still alive and being spread, don‘t expect normal flight ops to start in July. Schools in Hawaii will not start until fall and that is only if no community virus infections have been transmitted in four weeks. Don’t make any plans more than a couple weeks in advance and you know for certain that restrictions have been lifted.

Thanks for the information. Maybe this is off topic, but I would be interested in learning more about the aircraft and the pilots. What is the protocol when an aircraft is sitting for an extended period of time. What are the flight training issues? Maybe this will be too short of a pause to make a difference. My understanding is that this equipment and the pilots are designed to be continually flying and not sitting on the ground.

 

[geist1223]

Because FAA Regulations and the length of time the Pilots have all been off they are all going you have to do some training flights before they fly passengers again.

 

[Kapolei]

Because FAA Regulations and the length of time the Pilots have all been off they are all going you have to do some training flights before they fly passengers again.

I am thinking that veteran pilots that fly across the pacific will probably be just fine financially and skill wise. Maybe this is a nice break. Newer pilots on the mainland flying smaller aircraft might have a harder time financially. And they will miss out on the daily flights. As far as the aircraft, maybe a lot of service will get done earlier than required. Or are the aircraft just parked under some kind of mothball protocol?

 

[SmithOp]

I am thinking that veteran pilots that fly across the pacific will probably be just fine financially and skill wise. Maybe this is a nice break. Newer pilots on the mainland flying smaller aircraft might have a harder time financially. And they will miss out on the daily flights. As far as the aircraft, maybe a lot of service will get done earlier than required. Or are the aircraft just parked under some kind of mothball protocol?

Keeping our Parked Planes in Flying Shape

As the only major Hawai‘i-based airline, with over 90 years of service to our community, images of our fleet on the ground and not in the sky serve as a powerful daily reminder of the severity of this crisis.

www.hawaiianairlines.com

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro

 

[JIMinNC]

Well, remember that 80% have no complications, so extrapolating backward that means only about 40-50 new cases, meaning community spread almost gone. Assumes continuing excellent compliance with masks and distancing, of course.

Be careful with putting too much weight on the models. Just as they initially overestimated the increase in cases/deaths on the way up, they also appear to be overestimating the rate at which the infections and deaths will wane. The IMHE model that came our a day or two ago predicted that deaths in Italy would be 335 on April 10 and 281 on April 11. Actual numbers were 570 on the 10th and 619 on the 11th. They predict Italy deaths to fall to zero in early May. Seems incomprehensible to me. Hope they are right, but I have my doubts.

 

[csodjd]

Be careful with putting too much weight on the models. Just as they initially overestimated the increase in cases/deaths on the way up, they also appear to be overestimating the rate at which the infections and deaths will wane. The IMHE model that came our a day or two ago predicted that deaths in Italy would be 335 on April 10 and 281 on April 11. Actual numbers were 570 on the 10th and 619 on the 11th. They predict Italy deaths to fall to zero in early May. Seems incomprehensible to me. Hope they are right, but I have my doubts.

We have to be sure to look at the shaded areas as they represent, in effect, the margin of error or range. So far the models have been very accurate within those ranges.

 

[JIMinNC]

We have to be sure to look at the shaded areas as they represent, in effect, the margin of error or range. So far the models have been very accurate within those ranges.

But at least in Italy, even their high-low ranges are off and the actuals are outside the bounds of their range:

April 10 - predicted 335 (range 211-522) Actual: 570
April 11 - predicted 281 (range 177-439) Actual: 619
April 12 - predicted 242 (range 154-380) Actual: TBD

Obviously the 10th actual wasn't all that far off from the high limit, but the 11th was way off. Maybe the 11th will prove to be an aberration and over the next few days actuals will fall in line, but the story out of Italy is not as positive as it was a few days ago. Saturday's death toll there was the highest since April 6 and the almost 4700 new cases was the highest since April 4. I haven't seen any regional breakdowns from Italy, but I'm wondering if Lombardy and Veneto are declining, but those declines are now being offset by new hot spots in other parts of the country.

 

[Kapolei]

Keeping our Parked Planes in Flying Shape

As the only major Hawai‘i-based airline, with over 90 years of service to our community, images of our fleet on the ground and not in the sky serve as a powerful daily reminder of the severity of this crisis.

www.hawaiianairlines.com

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro

Excellent job by their management and their PR department for letting us know what is happening. Makes the customer feel safe and connected to their operations.

 

[lynne]

Kim shuts down vacation rentals: Proclamation signed Friday declares STVRs ‘nonessential.’ - West Hawaii Today

Kim shuts down vacation rentals: Proclamation signed Friday declares STVRs ‘nonessential.’ – Hawaii News | West Hawaii Today

www.westhawaiitoday.com

FYI - I think the onslaught of 'intended residents' is what prompted this decision.

 

[Kapolei]

Kim shuts down vacation rentals: Proclamation signed Friday declares STVRs ‘nonessential.’ - West Hawaii Today

Kim shuts down vacation rentals: Proclamation signed Friday declares STVRs ‘nonessential.’ – Hawaii News | West Hawaii Today

www.westhawaiitoday.com

FYI - I think the onslaught of 'intended residents' is what prompted this decision.

There was a news report of a broker finding long term rentals for wealthy New Yorkers on Maui.

 

[csodjd]

But at least in Italy, even their high-low ranges are off and the actuals are outside the bounds of their range:

April 10 - predicted 335 (range 211-522) Actual: 570
April 11 - predicted 281 (range 177-439) Actual: 619
April 12 - predicted 242 (range 154-380) Actual: TBD

Obviously the 10th actual wasn't all that far off from the high limit, but the 11th was way off. Maybe the 11th will prove to be an aberration and over the next few days actuals will fall in line, but the story out of Italy is not as positive as it was a few days ago. Saturday's death toll there was the highest since April 6 and the almost 4700 new cases was the highest since April 4. I haven't seen any regional breakdowns from Italy, but I'm wondering if Lombardy and Veneto are declining, but those declines are now being offset by new hot spots in other parts of the country.

Since you enjoy digging down into the details, be sure you look at this: http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates which explains a lot of what they are doing and how they adapt to try and increase accuracy.

 

[bbodb1]

If we can jump ahead for a moment to a time when air travel is open for business as usual (or something pretty close to that)....

I wonder what the status will be of a good number of attractions we wanted to patronize during our planned vacation to Hawaii (for example, boat excursions, van tours, etc). Not only would one suspect that some of them will be out of business but even when they do resume operations, it cannot be business as usual due to increased awareness of social distancing.

And what will happen to their pricing? The perception of Hawaii attraction pricing (from the perspective of someone who has never been there) was/is prices seemed extraordinarily high. But if attraction capacities are reduced to maintain social distancing, it seems likely prices will (at best) remain where they are and may even increase.

Is it reasonable to assume the pull of Hawaii is going to lessen (at least for a period of time) because costs will be out of reach for a greater number of people?

 

[HudsHut]

Here is the May 20th date: https://governor.hawaii.gov/wp-cont...ementary-Proclamation-for-COVID-19-signed.pdf

I see a "Third Supplementary Proclamation" dated March 21, 2020 and a "Fourth Supplementary Proclamation" dated March 31, 2020, where the date in last paragraph reverts to April 30, 2020.

"I FURTHER DECLARE that the disaster emergency relief period shall continue through April 30, 2020, unless terminated or extended by a separate proclamation, whichever shall occur first."

2020-2022 COVID19 | Hawai‘i Emergency Management Agency

Sixth Emergency Proclamation Related to Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program

dod.hawaii.gov

Does that mean that April 30, 2020 is currently the quarantine end date?

 

[csodjd]

I see a "Third Supplementary Proclamation" dated March 21, 2020 and a "Fourth Supplementary Proclamation" dated March 31, 2020, where the date in last paragraph reverts to April 30, 2020.

"I FURTHER DECLARE that the disaster emergency relief period shall continue through April 30, 2020, unless terminated or extended by a separate proclamation, whichever shall occur first."

2020-2022 COVID19 | Hawai‘i Emergency Management Agency

Sixth Emergency Proclamation Related to Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program

dod.hawaii.gov

Does that mean that April 30, 2020 is currently the quarantine end date?

Given that they had 21 new cases yesterday, even if it is, it seems quite unlikely to hold. The airlines certainly think it'll be a lot longer before people can start traveling to Hawaii.