Speculation About Marriott's New Timeshare Structure [merged]

[m61376]

Does anyone have a list of such situations. I know they tried to do that with the OP OF building but backed down. I know Waiohai was mentioned earlier I believe.

While I realize it won't affect a large chunk of owners, I wonder how the current AP points owners will be incorporated. My guess is if the systems are essentially the same they'll be rolled over for a small fee. However, if the systems are totally different, as I expect, then they may be worse off than many of those trying to convert from weeks.

I just remember references being made here and there about changes. The new Maui towers will be an interesting example too- some were sold as floating and some as fixed weeks.

I would hope that the AP program and whatever new scheme Marriott introduces would be melded together. Otherwise- imagine 4 different sets of reservation systems for the resorts in the AP program (and any future resorts added to that program)! At least for the current resorts, there will still be deeded week owners in both the old systems and presumably point owners in both the new systems; future resorts would have 2 sets of point owners if the programs weren't combined. Imagine the limitations that would impose, especially on limited inventory weeks (such as OF, 3BR's, etc.).

 

[m61376]

Quote:
Originally Posted by dougp26364 View Post
Inflation is a moot point in either points or weeks based systems. Newer resorts require more trade power, which is a hidden value, in weeks based systems. With points you can see the inflation. With weeks you can only guess. Weeks is a deposit and hope for confirmation. Points you know if you can make the exchange just by looking.

Doug, The only comment I would make to this is, while this may be true, thru II, if you play your cards right, you might stumble on a great trade even with a weaker resort. It may be at 4am on Sunday morning, but I think for some of us, that's the beauty of the hunt. And therefore it doesn't cost me anything more but time and patience, whereas the proposed new system might cost me money (on the front end-to join, AND on the back-end if/when I have to buy more points). I realize that society thrives on convenience, (in this case, your example of points based system giving you instant gratification) and more and more companies exploit that. As long as I can continue to get decent trades thru II, so far, I am not convinced. As you have said, time will tell...

While in theory Doug is correct, that in the current trading system the inflation is just hidden, but still there, there have been so many posts here about people licking out and getting a trade that perhaps they shouldn't have gotten- or certainly did not have the trade power to get. Excess inventory of newer resorts has particularly been a bonus over the years.

We have to be prepared that a points system will largely prevent such uptrades, except perhaps during Flexchange. People who have become accustomed to maximizing their ownership outside of Flexchange, but with perseverance in searching II and perhaps a lot of flexibility, will likely come up short.

Personally, I could accept that, but I would need to see that there was some real basis for the valuations, and not that they were arbitrarily assigned today and subject to change tomorrow at Marriott's whim. We bought into timeshares with the promise of pre-paid vacations, so Marriott's increased costs as a basis for point devaluation over time doesn't hold substance like it does with the perk of the hotel rewards program, in my opinion, of course. I want to be confident that my value won't relatively decrease over time; I don't want to see Marriott increase the point cost while valuations given remain stable.

 

[Asia2000]

Have you heard of any EOY usage in the Asia Program?

Every year in the Asia program you receive your set amount of points. The minimum level of points you can purchase is a 10,000 point per year program. This is how you can work your annual points. You can save your points for two years from the time they are given. In year #2 you can use the points from year #1, year #2 and even borrow from year #3 if you MFs are paid up. Add all three years together to leverage your points for a big blowout stay.

Nothing is advertised as EOY, but it is assumed that you can go:
1. Every year
2. Every other year
3. Every three years as long as your points do not expire (borrow from year one and year 3).

If you are a "bought from Marriott" owner, you can convert your two year old, unused points to Marriott Rewards points (3 MR points to 1 club point). Not a good deal at all as even at this rate, your 3 MR points are worth about 50% of one club point. Even at 5:1 it is still not a good deal.

If you are a resale owner, you simply lose the points if they are anything over two years old. This probably would not be an issue, but could become tricky to manage when juggling ideas and strategies. Say if you used 10,000 point flexchanges for two weeks leaving you points left over. Well, if you only have 2 weeks of vacation, you could lose your leftovers.

They make you convert to MR points or lose the points because they do not want you to bank up large sums, possibly taking a large chunk of inventory for one year and throwing off the inventory balances (so they say).

I couldn't imagine Marriott not honoring EOY deeds/points. After all, EOY is the perfect tool to pull people into the timesharing world (Marriott hopes you buy another EOY or another annual). 50% of their new business comes from existing owners or friends of existing owners.

They will just halve your point level (if you choose to go points). I suppose the rub may be if you cannot use all of your points in two years. It may require some more careful planning, but would not obsolete the product (using the Asia model).

Again, I think if you own Hawaii, any Platinum Plus or any 3 bedroom, you are loving this whole idea of points. If you are not, I'm not sure. It would be great to have some "leaked" details on this thread.

 

[PerryM]

The bogeyman cometh....

OK, I've been keeping up with this thread and "soaking it all in."

So my question for the "experts" is how do you think MVCI is going to communicate the changes to all owners? I'm sure it will be a lot to digest and wonder how comprehensive the announcement and communication vehicle will be.

I'm not expert but Perry and will try to answer your question:

If Marriott is about to release a trust-based Point system the learning curve for 400,000 is so large that I have no idea how Marriott will do it - that's their #1 problem; and I don't think this will bother them in the least.

This would be akin to chucking your cell phone and moving to another provider and cell phone and everything's written in Chinese; I mean everything - the screen, the audio, everything is Chinese.

If I were Marriott I'd realize this and just focus on scaring the hell out of the owners with a carrot and stick approach and just move forward with writing sales orders.

Let the owners to the dirty work for you by making them part of the scare tactics - members joining cause higher prices and fewer goodies and the word spreads.

"Price increase this Friday" will be back and probably be "Price increase in 15 minutes".

Just a guess on how salesreps and marketing guys would handle this huge problem - just ignore it and spread scare instead.

Hasn't that been Marriott's approach for 4 years now with the rumors of this system "Better not buy resale or the bogyman exchange system will get you".

Why would they change a successful tactic?

 

[puckmanfl]

Asia...

I own (2) 3 bedroom gv's plat. (orlando) and 3 eoy Hawaii's. I understand why Hawaii would do well with the new system, but not really sure behind your logic of why the 3 bedrooms would fare as well. Please help and explain this!!!

thanks...

 

[Asia2000]

I'm basing all of my logic on the Asia program. Only one property has 3 bedroom units available for the Asia program. It is the Marriott Empire Place - Bangkok. Nice, but not a resort. It's a new condominium type setup (maybe like MGC - Las Vegas - I have not been, but based on feedback and pictures, somewhat close possibly).

A 3 bedroom platinum goes for 47,000 points or about the same as a 2 bedroom platinum in Hawaii. I'm guessing a 2 bedroom platinum at most resorts will be in the 32,000 point range if things are modeled after Asia. Based on MFs, having Hawaii point values this much higher than the contiguous 48 MVCI resorts makes sense.

Also, if you want to exchange into a 3 bedroom platinum via II, it will cost 45,000 points. A 2 bedroom platinum-plus costs 60,000 points.

This is why I say Hawaii, 3 bedrooms and Platinum plus deeds will like the idea of points.

 

[puckmanfl]

good morning...

Grand Chateau (vegas) has 3 bedrooms, I thought this was part of AP program???

puckmanfl

 

[puckmanfl]

good morning

Asia, if you are correct I will be a "happy" camper. In 2004, I paid 24K (direct, spare me!!) for the 3 bedroom GV's while 2 bedroom plat Hawaii weeks were going for 35K. The maintenance fees fro the 3 bedroom GV's are $250 less than the 2 bedroom plat hawaii!!!

as I have said earlier, the "CHART" will create some happy owners and some infuriated ones as well..

time will tell

 

[Asia2000]

Also, if you look at the point values of studios and 1 bedrooms, they equal 2 bedroom units, which would eliminate the upgrades unless you did flexchanges. The other route would be not to convert to points, and just trade through II like you normally do. However, if the point owners increase in number, you may have more difficulty getting what you want.

I hope when the program is released, that some clear cut decisions can be made by deeded week owners. Meaning, here is the program, this set of people need to do this. This set of people need to take this action, etc.

But, I do not think it will happen that way. Unfortunately, I think it is going to be confusing, and involve some kind of limited time offer. I think Perry may be correct in some of the tactics and strategies used by Mr. Marriott.

Maybe different threads could be started for different types of owners, to keep mass confusion to a minimum. I think it will take a lot of collective brain power to figure this one out (at least for the long term).

If the new program was simple and clear cut, they would have leaked details long ago. But it obviously involves top secrecy by all employees and intense sales rep training. As the buyer or consumer, this does not encourage me.

No games. Just tell us what it is so we can plan our vacation worlds accordingly.

 

[Asia2000]

good morning...

Grand Chateau (vegas) has 3 bedrooms, I thought this was part of AP program???

puckmanfl

Yes sir, you are correct. MGC is part of the direct Asia program, but I think you can only book one or two bedrooms directly through Marriott. I believe anything larger has to go through II which will cost 45,000 points (platinum) and a $99 transfer fee. A platinum-plus 3 bedroom will cost 85,000 points. The Grand-Daddy of MVCI.

 

[puckmanfl]

good afternoon...

Here is my "crystal ball" look....
Have to go with Perry on this one!!!

MVCI needs to make this look as good as possible on the initial "IPO". ALL unsold inventory will be put into the points system asap... The "bennies" for conversion will be plentiful at first and be a bit "biased" towards the owners of higher end weeks. This is to ensure some inventory of these properties. I believe that we will all be playing "Beat the clock" as there will be pressure to get the goodies by playing "early bird". The goal will to get "converters" by making it "dicey" to do internal exchanges via II.

Early on it will look great and perhaps "cheap" but after months (probably years) the "fine print" will kick in and the "devaluation" of the "enhancements" will start..

 

[DanCali]

I'm thinking this thing may be closer to the Ritz-Carlton program than the AP program. Fletch seems to think there will be no home resort advantage and that makes me believe this may be a trust based ownership. I'm pretty sure from the descripition I've seen that RC is a trust based ownership.

And how did the RC program work out for marriott?

 

[Cindala]

Quote:.... there have been so many posts here about people lucking out and getting a trade that perhaps they shouldn't have gotten- or certainly did not have the trade power to get. Excess inventory of newer resorts has particularly been a bonus over the years.

We have to be prepared that a points system will largely prevent such uptrades, except perhaps during Flexchange. People who have become accustomed to maximizing their ownership outside of Flexchange, but with perseverance in searching II and perhaps a lot of flexibility, will likely come up short.

Personally I think this is exactly what will happen. As owners of Gold at Grande Vista, we have exchanged up into Platinum season each year. I think these opportunities will disappear with the new points system. It may take me 2 or 3 years of points to get what I use to get with one week each year, plus I will have to pay for this privilege? (One vacation a year vs. one vacation every 2 or 3 years, plus $$$.)

So how is Marriott going to get me to join this new points program when it will give me less trading strength?

It will be interesting to see how they will avoid the separation of the Platinums from the Gold, (and Silvers and Bronzes for that matter);those who stand to benefit from those who most likely won't.

 

[DanCali]

I bolded what you said about street prices reflecting demand and, hence, value. I maintain that this is the only really objective means of fairly assigning values- because it is a system already in place which does reflect market conditions and treats all resorts on an equal footing, reflecting what they have to offer, rather than being influenced by date of construction. IF Marriott bases valuations on that, people would be hard pressed to cry foul that they weren't being given what they thought their unit was worth.

Would you say the same thing if you owned in Orlando?

Is anyone on this board truly "objective"? We all own somewhere and all have some interests regarding our ownership...

 

[AwayWeGo]

I Resemble That Remark.

Is anyone on this board truly objective?

I don't pretend to objectivity.

I just aim for honesty & consistency -- those, plus whatever open-mindedness I can summon up.

Mainly, though, I try to have fun.

I mean, shux, timeshares are for fun so TUG-BBS should mainly be for fun also.

Is this a great web site or what ?

Full Disclosure: I own 2 Orlando timeshares -- well, 1½ actually because 1 is every-year & the other is just EEY.

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​

 

[DanCali]

I don't pretend to objectivity.

I just aim for honesty & consistency -- those, plus whatever open-mindedness I can summon up.

Mainly, though, I try to have fun.

I mean, shux, timeshares are for fun so TUG-BBS should mainly be for fun also.

Is this a great web site or what ?

Full Disclosure: I own 2 Orlando timeshares -- well, 1½ actually because 1 is every-year & the other is just EEY.

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​

I'm all about having fun - even kept up with the 1740 posts so far despite having a full time job... I also learned a lot from many, many posters.

I just don't see how someone can say there is a "truly objective means of assessing value," especially when they are an owner. I also don't think Marriott will be objective in assessing value unless the objective is how to sell the most points in the future (pun intended).

If there is anyone relatively "objctive" here it's probably II since they are not an owner or a developer. If they say a 1BR in the CA desert in March is worth a 2BR in Hawaii in October, I assume they get a pretty good picture of the supply and demand and know better than me.

And for the record, I don't own in the CA desert or Hawaii...

 

[Dean]

I bolded what you said about street prices reflecting demand and, hence, value. I maintain that this is the only really objective means of fairly assigning values- because it is a system already in place which does reflect market conditions and treats all resorts on an equal footing, reflecting what they have to offer, rather than being influenced by date of construction. IF Marriott bases valuations on that, people would be hard pressed to cry foul that they weren't being given what they thought their unit was worth.

I can't see street prices being representative because there is no real standard (see ebay) and because the prices right now are so low that they would not do anything rather than use these prices as a gauge. They have ALREADY valued each resort and week currently in sales. It is not a difficult conversion to take that info and mesh it into some type of price per point. If you has no home resort priority and points are points, you just take them all and average them then add 10-20% or more. That's one area I do agree with Perry, that each point sold is either a high demand point in the eyes of the buyer OR a point slated for when/where that buyer wants to use it. It's even easier if you keep the underlying view/unit season/etc in place. As much as anything else, I'm interested in how the dues will be calculated.

So how is Marriott going to get me to join this new points program when it will give me less trading strength?

It will be interesting to see how they will avoid the separation of the Platinums from the Gold, (and Silvers and Bronzes for that matter);those who stand to benefit from those who most likely won't.

And even more to me, how will they determine the differences between the resorts. My guess is the main way they'll get you interested is by taking away options you have now including internal exchange priority and a significant reduction in inventory. As for say a GV 3 BR compared to a HI 2 BR, I'd expect GV 3 BR to be worth somewhat less points as a reflection of the prices charged and the relative demand. How much less is really the question in my mind but I'd guess a 2 BR GV about half a 2 BR HI and a 3 BR GV somewhere about half way in between.

Would you say the same thing if you owned in Orlando?

Is anyone on this board truly "objective"? We all own somewhere and all have some interests regarding our ownership...

We all have our bias but I'm with Alan in that honesty and relative objectivity are my goal, sometimes to a fault some would say. I try to see the business side of these decisions as well, an areas where I think many fall down on these type of issues. I look at these issues very cold and calculating and I can absolutely separate out what I think will and should happen from what would be best for me. It is my opinion that many in timesharing can't look beyond their emotional involvement and personal preferences to see the big picture in ANY objective way. Mark my words, we'll see plenty of posts of people complaining about the personal affect without any acknowledgement of Marriott's right to do so, heck, we already are. I can absolutely respect someone who says they're upset at how a given change affects them but they realize the companies position. I cannot respect one who says, how dare they make changes that are different than what I want and what the rules were when they joined.

 

[PerryM]

Betting on fairness...

I'm all about having fun - even kept up with the 1740 posts so far despite having a full time job... I also learned a lot from many, many posters.

I just don't see how someone can say there is a "truly objective means of assessing value," especially when they are an owner. I also don't think Marriott will be objective in assessing value unless the objective is how to sell the most points in the future (pun intended).

If there is anyone relatively "objctive" here it's probably II since they are not an owner or a developer. If they say a 1BR in the CA desert in March is worth a 2BR in Hawaii in October, I assume they get a pretty good picture of the supply and demand and know better than me.

And for the record, I don't own in the CA desert or Hawaii...

We have a 100% objective way of valuing each and every villa and week of those villas - the existing Marriott rental system.

In a Points system geared towards exchanging this is ALL you need. Week 52 at Summit Watch in a 2BR rents for $1,078.00 per night or $7,546 for the week. Let's round it off to 7,500 Points deposited if you own the week or if you want to rent the week.

Do the same for each Marriott unit and week and you have a 100% objective way of measuring one Marriott unit against another.

So is Marriott going to award 7,500 Points per year to the 2BR week 52 owner at Summit Watch?

Bet your bottom dollar no!

This system must also handle purchase price and that's where things get sticky and sales antics enter the picture.

So it won't take but a day or so for many of us to find out if this is an "honest" system or a "dishonest" system; just like Vegas.

It won't take me long to figure how "fair" the new system is - the average Marriott owner won't even suspect that the "house" might stack the decks in its favor...

 

[DanCali]

This system must also handle purchase price and that's where things get sticky and sales antics enter the picture.

I completely agree... and that's why i said marriott cannot be objective.

I guess this goes back to a point you raised a few hundred posts ago... Marriott is a management company / developer. II and RCI are exchange companies. I say let each company do what it does best.

Marriott is doing this because sales are drying up, not because they can do a better job than II. I don't think that even they truly think that they can do a better job than II...

 

[GregT]

Has there been a thread in another board that compares the different existing point systems and the options that deeded owners have in participating in a new point system?

I'm sure Marriott studied it, I'd like to as well. Thanks!


Have seen this summary thread, but still looking for a "best practices" thread

http://www.tugbbs.com/forums/showthread.php?t=64571

 

[PerryM]

I completely agree... and that's why i said marriott cannot be objective.

I guess this goes back to a point you raised a few hundred posts ago... Marriott is a management company / developer. II and RCI are exchange companies. I say let each company do what it does best.

Marriott is doing this because sales are drying up, not because they can do a better job than II. I don't think that even they truly think that they can do a better job than II...

No timeshare developer can.

It always boils down to understanding what they offer and if you can exploit parts of it to your advantage - god knows they do the same for themselves.

Loopholes will be found, then plugged which always leads to even more loopholes and so on.

To 95% of the Marriott owners they just don't care and if they have the bucks they will trust Marriott and just do what Marriott says. Their only decision is how much do they lose for waiting.

I still think $2,500 is an attractive starting fee per week and Marriott will so generously offer us to extend that over 24 months (at no finance charge) - so $100 per month and everyone is happy.

 

[Cindala]

I can absolutely respect someone who says they're upset at how a given change affects them but they realize the companies position.

If I worked for Marriott or stood to benefit from this new system, I might think like that.

I cannot respect one who says, how dare they make changes that are different than what I want and what the rules were when they joined.

I think that most Marriott owners first concern is how this new points system changes the exchanges/rules that they bought into and how it will likely devalue their timeshare. Most will not think, "Marriott has to make money somewhere since sales are down, so I understand."

 

[timeos2]

Why should II be involved?

I completely agree... and that's why i said marriott cannot be objective.

I guess this goes back to a point you raised a few hundred posts ago... Marriott is a management company / developer. II and RCI are exchange companies. I say let each company do what it does best.

Marriott is doing this because sales are drying up, not because they can do a better job than II. I don't think that even they truly think that they can do a better job than II...

IMO a blind chipmunk with other typing infirmaries could do a better job than II running an exchange system. A well designed points system by Marriott should be a great option as it is with so many other big names. The only surprise is that it has taken SO long for Marriott to offer it (if they do as we assume). Why should Marriott owners be forced to be a member of II and pay the fees simply to move between other Marriott resorts? It makes no sense. If all you want is a standalone resort then why brand it with a system? If you are in a system why require yet another third party & the costs that brings with it to handle use outside your home ownership week(s)? It hasn't made sense from the beginning and it will be a big positive when it is finally addressed by Marriott with a points based, internal exchange process. Way overdue.

 

[PerryM]

Bozo the clown was always creepy in my opinion....

I can't see street prices being representative because there is no real standard (see ebay) and because the prices right now are so low that they would not do anything rather than use these prices as a gauge. They have ALREADY valued each resort and week currently in sales. It is not a difficult conversion to take that info and mesh it into some type of price per point. If you has no home resort priority and points are points, you just take them all and average them then add 10-20% or more. That's one area I do agree with Perry, that each point sold is either a high demand point in the eyes of the buyer OR a point slated for when/where that buyer wants to use it. It's even easier if you keep the underlying view/unit season/etc in place. As much as anything else, I'm interested in how the dues will be calculated.

And even more to me, how will they determine the differences between the resorts. My guess is the main way they'll get you interested is by taking away options you have now including internal exchange priority and a significant reduction in inventory. As for say a GV 3 BR compared to a HI 2 BR, I'd expect GV 3 BR to be worth somewhat less points as a reflection of the prices charged and the relative demand. How much less is really the question in my mind but I'd guess a 2 BR GV about half a 2 BR HI and a 3 BR GV somewhere about half way in between.

We all have our bias but I'm with Alan in that honesty and relative objectivity are my goal, sometimes to a fault some would say. I try to see the business side of these decisions as well, an areas where I think many fall down on these type of issues. I look at these issues very cold and calculating and I can absolutely separate out what I think will and should happen from what would be best for me. It is my opinion that many in timesharing can't look beyond their emotional involvement and personal preferences to see the big picture in ANY objective way. Mark my words, we'll see plenty of posts of people complaining about the personal affect without any acknowledgement of Marriott's right to do so, heck, we already are. I can absolutely respect someone who says they're upset at how a given change affects them but they realize the companies position. I cannot respect one who says, how dare they make changes that are different than what I want and what the rules were when they joined.

I strongly disagree with that idea!

Marriott has its agenda and we have ours. It's not my job to care a whit about Marriott. Marriott could go belly up tonight and Summit Watch will do just fine.

In a transaction, my job as a buyer is to hand over money to Marriott and Marriott has painted a picture of what it intends to do for that money.

Clever lawyers has covered all the bases, in 6pt type, on the fact that Marriott can probably do just about anything up to but not including fraud to me.

So although Marriott has a right to throw out weeks and cook up new schemes to wring more money out of us doesn't mean for a second I need to understand their thrust to stick a legal document in my face and shout "I can do this to you Bozo".

I have no doubt that there will be plenty of lawsuits to go around and that some will eventually get me a $25 Marriott Gift Certificate which will cost Marriott owners $100 but that's how the game is played.

So I don't like what Marriott is doing to us and I could care less their need to make money for their stockholders - Marriott going the way of the Dodo bird really isn't going to impact me a bit.

 

[Dean]

If I worked for Marriott or stood to benefit from this new system, I might think like that.



I think that most Marriott owners first concern is how this new points system changes the exchanges/rules that they bought into and how it will likely devalue their timeshare. Most will not think, "Marriott has to make money somewhere since sales are down, so I understand."

This potential change is not a good way to represent the emotional vs objective/factual line of thinking. Look at it another way, say Marriott took away the 13 month priority options, something they can easily do on their own and in some ways, likely should. The question isn't how it affects you personally but what is the reasonableness of the decision itself independent of your personal involvement. BTW, this exact change would likely cause me to sell some of my weeks, but I could still understand it.

I strongly disagree with that idea!

Marriott has its agenda and we have ours. It's not my job to care a whit about Marriott. Marriott could go belly up tonight and Summit Watch will do just fine.

In a transaction, my job as a buyer is to hand over money to Marriott and Marriott has painted a picture of what it intends to do for that money.

Clever lawyers has covered all the bases, in 6pt type, on the fact that Marriott can probably do just about anything up to but not including fraud to me.

So although Marriott has a right to throw out weeks and cook up new schemes to wring more money out of us doesn't mean for a second I need to understand their thrust to stick a legal document in my face and shout "I can do this to you Bozo".

I have no doubt that there will be plenty of lawsuits to go around and that some will eventually get me a $25 Marriott Gift Certificate which will cost Marriott owners $100 but that's how the game is played.

So I don't like what Marriott is doing to us and I could care less their need to make money for their stockholders - Marriott going the way of the Dodo bird really isn't going to impact me a bit.

Perry, I rather thought you'd take that stance, you were the one I was thinking about when I wrote the statement because you've essentially already made those type of statements. Let me clarify one point, I cannot respect the reasonableness of the opinion but can respect the person.