Speculation About Marriott's New Timeshare Structure [merged]

[Dean]

Hi...

inventory will be in three FLAVORS

weeks inventory (II)
points inventory (MVCI)
developer inventory (unsold + units returned for points)

If MVCI is on top of their game they will initially put these in the points game. When a new program is rolled out, you would want your first customers to scream from the rooftops "Hey look at this , it really works.. we did get Koolina or Crystal Shores!!!"

My crystal ball says internal exchanges will be difficult for ALL owners that do not convert!!! Non converters should be comfy with home unit usage and external trades...

The most concern thing is that we will all be making a blind decision without knowledge of what he other owners are doing!!!

In general terms I would agree. How the weeks for high demand times are broken down to one side vs the other will be key for me and likely everyone else as to the feasibility of standing pat. Costs and other specifics will determine the desire to convert. There is another group to yours above, units at resorts in active sales and future resorts that have not yet been declared into timeshare inventory and in some cases, might never be. These resorts would not be available to members in any capacity. The other portion is how MVCI would reserve and dispose of weeks and points they own. Would they do like DVC and hold back on the best weeks giving owners first crack or would they find a way to secure all the best weeks for themselves for rental or sales incentives?

 

[billymach4]

Hi...

inventory will be in three FLAVORS

weeks inventory (II)
points inventory (MVCI)
developer inventory (unsold + units returned for points)

If MVCI is on top of their game they will initially put these in the points game. When a new program is rolled out, you would want your first customers to scream from the rooftops "Hey look at this , it really works.. we did get Koolina or Crystal Shores!!!"

My crystal ball says internal exchanges will be difficult for ALL owners that do not convert!!! Non converters should be comfy with home unit usage and external trades...

The most concern thing is that we will all be making a blind decision without knowledge of what he other owners are doing!!!

http://www.tugbbs.com/forums/showthread.php?t=121814

Disclaimer... This is only a rough estimate so don't shoot me if someone can further refine these estimates.

Here are some potential numbers to plug in

595,000 of potential units of II owner weeks inventory
105,000 of unsold developer inventory that can be used for the rumored points system.


It would appear to me that Marriott is really behind in owner inventory. The only way Marriott can eclipse the owner weeks inventory is by adding their hotels into the mix. I am sure Marriott will enter this into the equation.

Fletch,

Somehow I am now talking my way out of the rumor theory. But I still say it is a rumor.

But I now am begining to see how Marriott can make this work to their advantage if it comes to fruition.

 

[SueDonJ]

... Somehow I am now talking my way out of the rumor theory. But I still say it is a rumor.

But I now am begining to see how Marriott can make this work to their advantage if it comes to fruition.

Marriott's dastardly plan is working - you will now be assimilated ... :hysterical:

 

[jlf58]

The will add in some hotels to the point system

http://www.tugbbs.com/forums/showthread.php?t=121814

Disclaimer... This is only a rough estimate so don't shoot me if someone can further refine these estimates.

Here are some potential numbers to plug in

595,000 of potential units of II owner weeks inventory
105,000 of unsold developer inventory that can be used for the rumored points system.


It would appear to me that Marriott is really behind in owner inventory. The only way Marriott can eclipse the owner weeks inventory is by adding their hotels into the mix. I am sure Marriott will enter this into the equation.

Fletch,

Somehow I am now talking my way out of the rumor theory. But I still say it is a rumor.

But I now am begining to see how Marriott can make this work to their advantage if it comes to fruition.

 

[Asia2000]

Hi...

I am hopeful that MVCI is using this new program to become the best and brightest and to build the best "mousetrap". I just need someone to show me the way...

Please keep in mind that thousands of owners and then resale purchasers had the opportunity to purchase "well run " point systems and have not done so! I do not believethat we are all mindless sheep led to purchase by the evil developer. It looks like most of the MVCI owners have had great success with their product and would like to keep it that way!!!

Puckmanfl,

I do not think the possible new program is really about deeded week owners. Yes, they will offer conversion and no I do not think it will be a good deal. The money will not be made off of the deeded week owners, rather off the new "lump sums" coming in for the new points buyers. In my opinion Marriott is going after a newer, younger group of buyers (all those single folks making 150K+ per year). These "cool" people are not looking for 2 bedrooms and a kitchen. Rather a one bedroom or studio would work just fine. After all, they can buy more points later (at a higher price) if they get married and have kids.

No offense, but timeshares kind of have an "old foggey" kind of image. I think Marriott will market this new program to the I-pod/pad/phone crowd as being the "must have" thing. Kind of like a Lincoln Town car versus a Cadillac CTS-V. Speculation of course, but they want to offer TONS of options via a timeshare program that will allow them to stay in "any" Marriott property worldwide. When presented with the Marriott Asia Pacific program, it was presented almost like "here are the keys to the best Marriott has to offer" (Resorts, top hotels, flexible stays from 1 day to 14 days or more, and the rest of the Marriott chain (Courtyard, Residence Inn, Fairfield, etc). Plus with Marriott Rewards "the program everyone is familiar with", you can add flights and rental cars to your trip (unless you want to fly American, haha). This is brand loyalty building at its best.

I do not think Marriott is going to try to "one over" any current deeded week owner. After all, they just signed a very long term contract with II and a week owner is entitled to his week, no matter what.

I think the big difference will begin in ten years. At this point, Marriott will probably have five or six new "mega" resorts in the best areas that are owned 100% by points program people. Yes, Marriott will still manage the deeded properties to their best ability, but, the deeded properties may not have the zeal and attraction they once did. Yes, they can trade in via II to these "mega" resorts, but maybe not at the priority level that a direct trading points program owner would. Over time, the attraction of the point program may be much more for deeded week owners. Enough attraction to switch now? Not sure.

The real attraction to covert would be that you would get into a points program at a much lower cost per point than what would be sold in the future. In Asia, the difference is $0.75 versus today of $1.25. You cannot buy two programs and combine them. You have to buy one program and add points, otherwise you have two interval fees, etc. Is this enough to make you want to convert? Probably not. Would you have wished you did in 20 years? Hard to say.

 

[puckmanfl]

Good morning Asia (or night) at your location...

I am just curious as to the location of all those "single folks making $150,000/year". If they are the target of the new Marriott marketing wave, "doomsday" for the company is near!!! Maybe now, I will be able to go on a sales tour without "my chief of staff"

In my universe, the young hot shot singles are moving home with mom and dad and are entering the toughest job market in 50 years!!!

Basically your vision is as follows:

The new world will be a sleek hybrid of MVCI traditional TS combined with the modern world of "primo" new "hotel" type resorts in all of the "hot" locations. Using your AP program numbers, a new customer will be asked to fork over $36,000 for 32K points (1.13pt/dollar). For this they can get a 2 bedroom plat unit in an old foggie TS or 160,000 pts (90k in 2020) in a pt program with ever present devaluation. The owner will pay about $950 in mf's (always rising) + lose the interest on the initial 36K investment ($720 at 2%) for a yearly cost of $1600. For this you will get 7 nites at a level 1-5 Marriott (residence inn) or 5 at one of the "hot" level 7-8 joints....

I think I will just enjoy two weeks in Hawaii every year and exchange the others externally and hope for the best. If this is the plan, I truly wish them well!!!

 

[Asia2000]

Your point is well taken. I will be in your camp if this is the case. I just think the new buyers will not be as smart as the TUG community. In a sense, I was playing "devils advocate", but that is hard to tell on an e-mail.

Marriott will need a legitimate, worthy offer for current deed holders for anyone with financial sense to move to points. In my opinion, points will not look attractive for 20 years. Deed values will increase in the next 10 years and then stabilize. I have not facts or proof of this. Rather it is just my opinion as much of my writing on TUG has been. I just wanted to promote some new style thinking.

I guess I got put in my place on that last write up. But, I'm a big boy. I can handle it. LOL.

Thanks for your opinion though, seriously.

 

[puckmanfl]

asia...

waking up at 5 am EST to interact with thoughtful pro-active posters such as yourself is what makes this so much fun...

To be quite honest, I am a "mega exchanger" and I am down to just a few MVCI properties in the US that appeal to me. The Spain and Thailand resorts will be my next frontier (after my 2011 25th anniversary 3 week Hawaii gig ). I will look forward to your insights into your part of the globe!!!

 

[Clark]

My crystal ball says internal exchanges will be difficult for ALL owners that do not convert!!! Non converters should be comfy with home unit usage and external trades...

I would be interested in seeing some discussion on what affect you all think this will have on independent Marriott-to-Marriott exchanges.

 

[puckmanfl]

good morning...

independent Marriott-Marriott exchanges are an interesting topic..

Here is my take based on personal opinion and intuition...

#1 Most owners have ZERO idea that this can be done. TUG and reweek seem to be the major players although I am sure there are a few other websites devoted to this. I just don't see many Marriott-Marriott exchanges even listed on TUG or redweek

#2 I believe that OFF weeks will be easy to do thru points and II as there always googles of these units available. If you have a "primo" week, looking to extended stays in off season resorts a point system could be a bonanza...

#3 The concern is "like-like" plat exchanges. Asia's analogy of the BCS College Football comes into play here. The Summer HHI owner, Plat ski week owner, winter Oceana Palms owner and the Winter Aruba/FC owner all believe they have the best units. This not include the Hawaii owners who always believe their unit is the most valuable. Just looking at sample exchange proposals on TUG and redweek lead me to believe that everyone is always looking for an "uptrade' (imagine that)..

I am not optimistic for an ever growing market of independent exchanges...

I may be wrong but!!!

 

[m61376]

Asia-
First, thanks for your thoughtful and informative posts.

Although I can understand why you feel the new Marriott program is going after a different market, but besides the explanation given by puckmanfl, which is a valid commentary on the limited finances of many young singles who formerly belonged to that "yuppie" group, I don't think even those that can afford it would be a large enough market. Today's young singles are looking for instant gratification, and are more interested in the here and now. I don't think most of them will be interested in plucking down thousands of dollars for future vacation options and most seem to want to do what they want when they want; while the versatility part of the package will be very attractive (esp. IF they include hotels or really push the hotel options by converting to reward points) many of them are aware of the limitations of booking at least flights with miles and I am not so sure they will clamor to join something with similar hassles.

There are still some twenty and thirty something singles making the 150K, but they are working 80+ hours a week. Their free time and their vacation time are limited, and they want the ease of booking. Also, as anyone with grown kids will attest to, this is definitely the "last minute" generation, and the last minute planning doesn't mesh well with timeshare ownership. And even those who still have those cushy jobs have counterparts who are looking for a job, so they are being more conservative in their spending on big ticket items.

So, personally, I think marketing geared to that group would be a big mistake.

 

[dioxide45]

I would be interested in seeing some discussion on what affect you all think this will have on independent Marriott-to-Marriott exchanges.

I think short term, there will be little change. Except that people will be looking at the point charts (if there are any) and valuing their weeks. People who are trading their week for another will know how Marriott values them and expect additional compensation if their week is worth more in points.

good morning...

independent Marriott-Marriott exchanges are an interesting topic..

Here is my take based on personal opinion and intuition...

#1 Most owners have ZERO idea that this can be done. TUG and reweek seem to be the major players although I am sure there are a few other websites devoted to this. I just don't see many Marriott-Marriott exchanges even listed on TUG or redweek

Ownertrades.com has listings also. Just for Marriott to Marriott

#2 I believe that OFF weeks will be easy to do thru points and II as there always googles of these units available. If you have a "primo" week, looking to extended stays in off season resorts a point system could be a bonanza...

#3 The concern is "like-like" plat exchanges. Asia's analogy of the BCS College Football comes into play here. The Summer HHI owner, Plat ski week owner, winter Oceana Palms owner and the Winter Aruba/FC owner all believe they have the best units. This not include the Hawaii owners who always believe their unit is the most valuable. Just looking at sample exchange proposals on TUG and redweek lead me to believe that everyone is always looking for an "uptrade' (imagine that)..

I am not optimistic for an ever growing market of independent exchanges...

I may be wrong but!!!

I think for the most part people looking to do direct trades have prime weeks and are also looking for prime weeks. We own at Grande Vista and would never look to do a direct exchange. I know that no one will want to give up their prime week/location for something they can get as a getaway for cheap.

With the current exchange system, trade value is a secret. In a points system it is much more transparent. People will know how Marriott values weeks/resorts.

Today, people look to direct trades to save some money. They can save $109 + $89 (Marriott to Marriott exchange fee and II membership). A lot depends on how Marriott handles internal exchanges. Will they also charge an exchange fee? If they do and depending on what that is, direct trades could still be a viable option for those looking to save some cash. If Marriott offers it up for free, then direct exchange will be dead in the long term.

I don't expect Marriott to not charge a fee for internal exchanges. They need to pay for all of the research and development somehow.

 

[timeos2]

Hey - mine is ALWAYS better than yours!

#3 The concern is "like-like" plat exchanges. Asia's analogy of the BCS College Football comes into play here. The Summer HHI owner, Plat ski week owner, winter Oceana Palms owner and the Winter Aruba/FC owner all believe they have the best units. This not include the Hawaii owners who always believe their unit is the most valuable. Just looking at sample exchange proposals on TUG and redweek lead me to believe that everyone is always looking for an "uptrade' (imagine that)..

I am not optimistic for an ever growing market of independent exchanges...

I may be wrong but!!!

I think you are right on. Everyone thinks what they have is worth at least what YOU have - most likely far more It is very hard to make a one for one trade for a number of reasons. Makes you realize how tough a job II/RCI has trying to do just that. Its a big reason why people think that point value doesn't really reflect reality but, usually, it is a third party evaluation that only wants to assure that the time gets claimed.

They have every reason to value it correctly and zero to favor a developer or resort group as that just means they'll be stuck with time no one will take at those rates. The cries from those that always seem to feel RCI/II, whoever, favors one group or another - interestingly and predictably at the expense of THEIR favorite destination(s) - ring very hollow. An exchange company has the goal of having time sensitive inventory claimed not over valued and left to waste. Undervalued and it gets snapped up too quickly and leaves unwanted time which is really over valued thus unwanted. What a fine line and delicate balance they have to try to achieve.

 

[AwayWeGo]

RCI Last Call & Instant Exchange.

An exchange company has the goal of having time sensitive inventory claimed not over valued and left to waste.

Not only that, RCI (for example) has 2 safety valves aimed at seeing that the overvalued banked timeshare weeks do not go to waste -- Last Call & Instant Exchange.

Timeshare exchange is sweet from RCI's perspective. They pay nothing for the weeks under their control & they collect exchange fees for letting people make reservations to use those weeks, which are already paid for by members who also pay dues to RCI.

When time is getting short (i.e., 6 weeks or less before check-in), RCI offers the leftover dogs & cats for no more than 9,000 points (plus exchange fee -- via Instant Exchange ) or for bargain-rate rentals (via Last Call ).

Big bargain for RCI members flexible enough to sign up just 6 weeks out.

Good deal for RCI in getting something rather than nothing for overvalued weeks that have gone stale & are at risk for going to waste.

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​

 

[dioxide45]

When time is getting short (i.e., 6 weeks or less before check-in), RCI offers the leftover dogs & cats for no more than 9,000 points (Instant Exchange ) or for bargain-rate rentals (Last Call ).

I have a question because I know nothing of how RCI points works. Do they charge an exchange fee for 9000 point or any point exchanges in addition to the points membership fee?

 

[AwayWeGo]

Instant Exchange = 9,000 Points (Or Fewer) + Exchange Fee.

Do they charge an exchange fee for 9000 point or any point exchanges in addition to the points membership fee?

Yes -- Instant Exchange is for RCI Points exchanges into RCI Weeks timeshares for 9,000 points (maximum) plus exchange fee for the whole week, regardless of unit size & irrespective of Gold-Silver-Bronze crown rating. (Well, there isn't any actual Bronze Crown rating, but you know what I mean.)

All our Instant Exchange reservations have been into nice USA timeshares (Florida & Virginia) for 7,500 points + exchange fee.

By contrast, straight-points reservations require the full points-value of the timeshare being exchanged into even if the reservation is made today for check-in tomorrow. (Go figure.)

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​

 

[EducatedConsumer]

All of this speculation and talk over conjecture. Wow!

 

[puckmanfl]

good afternoon...

you ain't see nuttin' yet...

just wait until MVCI puts out the "CHART". The one where each resort and season is assigned a point value and the secrecy ends!!!!

that ought to be fun!!!

 

[dioxide45]

good afternoon...

you ain't see nuttin' yet...

just wait until MVCI puts out the "CHART". The one where each resort and season is assigned a point value and the secrecy ends!!!!

that ought to be fun!!!

I think the Internet might blow up if/when that happens.

I am still thinking we will have to see any chart from someone who posts one that is absconded from a sales presentation. Early on when Marriott is trying to sell the new system, I think they are going to be overly protective of that proprietary information. They don't want anyone thinking long and hard about this. They want to get you to a sales presentation where they can spin their view and give you little time to analyze their fuzzy math. Once people here start buying in, then the information will be more redily available.

 

[puckmanfl]

hi...

they are going to have to publish the "chart" Who in their right mind would do a points conversion without knowing the cost and what value they can get????

just curious!!!!!

 

[dioxide45]

hi...

they are going to have to publish the "chart" Who in their right mind would do a points conversion without knowing the cost and what value they can get????

just curious!!!!!

They will let people see it, at the sales presentation. If you buy, then you get the new packet. That is where we will see charts from, not directly from Marriott (unless you go on a tour). I hope I am wrong, but currently they usually don't let you walk away with any materials from a presentation unless you buy. They don't want you thinking about it because they know when you do, you are less likely to buy in.

 

[AwayWeGo]

An Educated Consumer Is Not Their Best Customer.

Who in their right mind would do a points conversion without knowing the cost and what value they can get?

Timeshare sellers -- including the ones pushing points-system conversions -- don't exactly favor pitching to people in their right minds.

Rather, professional timeshare sellers use the old razzle-dazzle & ballyhoo to fast-talk people into signing up for big bux before they come to their senses.

( Just saying. )

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​

 

[puckmanfl]

Hi...

I have faith in the human condition!!! I don't think there will be a single conversion until the customer views the "CHART". This is going to be billed as "ALL ACCESS" isn't anyone going to check????


I know TUGGERS are a cynical lot, but this is ludicrous. Even for us!!!

 

[taffy19]

Your point is well taken. I will be in your camp if this is the case. I just think the new buyers will not be as smart as the TUG community. In a sense, I was playing "devils advocate", but that is hard to tell on an e-mail.

Marriott will need a legitimate, worthy offer for current deed holders for anyone with financial sense to move to points. In my opinion, points will not look attractive for 20 years. Deed values will increase in the next 10 years and then stabilize. I have not facts or proof of this. Rather it is just my opinion as much of my writing on TUG has been. I just wanted to promote some new style thinking.

I guess I got put in my place on that last write up. But, I'm a big boy. I can handle it. LOL.

Thanks for your opinion though, seriously.

Asia, you may be right that Marriott is targeting a new market as the growth of the economy will not be in the USA but rather in your part of the world so they are gearing up for the future. I remember reading here that one of the new resorts was furnished in a complete different style than we are used to and the pictures were in that thread. Several people commented that they didn't like it. We had no idea that this was part of their new plan already.

I am curious how they are going to promote this wonderful deal to us but I'll bet that the word flexibility will be used a lot and the dream of vacationing anywhere in the world if hotel stays are included too. It's going to be fun to go on a tour and hear the spin and I am looking forward to the feedback here as someone will hear it sooner.

 

[puckmanfl]

hi

Keep in mind the track record of this organization with the "linkage" of hotel stays and TS units. Does the "enhancement/devaluation" of MR points WITHOUT an increase in the points available per TS unit remain in anyone's memory???