Predictions: When will we be traveling "normally?"

[missyrcrews]

Like many of you, I'm eyeing my reservations for later in the year, and praying I don't have to cancel. This is the first April break in almost 20 years that I will spend at home. Sigh. I had originally cancelled because of my impending divorce...but now, it turns out to be a good decision due to COVID-19 concerns. Anyhow, what's your guess as to when this all ends? I agree with the "flatten the curve" folks...we don't want to overstress the medical field. But flattening the curve (a good thing!) means that the "event" gets spread out over a longer period of time. It doesn't necessarily change the number of people who are infected....it only influences the timing/number of people who are infected at a given momen. Anyhow. I'm hoping that by mid June we are over the worst of it, and can travel a little, at least domestically. The not knowing is the WORST, isn't it?

 

[Braindead]

I agree with by mid June, the worst will either be behind us or we’re going to learn to live with the virus while getting back to normal life

 

[Panina]

Imo Due to hot spots shifting in the US, we are very big, there will be some areas out of the high peak while others are not. June is three months away, thinking that might be too soon, summer late July early August is my guess. We are all guessing. I have June bookings and will cancel.

 

[CalGalTraveler]

Summer 2021 for normal travel. It will take time for the travel industry to recover and people won't have money to travel after layoffs. Don't know what airlines and hotels will be in business by then either.

Hope it is sooner than that, but I am wary of summer travel in 2020 given the 1918 pandemic came back in the fall unless we find a treatment.

 

[Luanne]

Due to the extreme changes I've seen in just the last week, went from restaurants being completely open, to only open at 50% capacity, to take out and delivery only, I wouldn't make ANY predictions. Our next trip, since I cancelled the one in May, is in October. Hoping that will happen, but if we have to cancel, we'll cancel.

 

[goaliedave]

Like many of you, I'm eyeing my reservations for later in the year, and praying I don't have to cancel. This is the first April break in almost 20 years that I will spend at home. Sigh. I had originally cancelled because of my impending divorce...but now, it turns out to be a good decision due to COVID-19 concerns. Anyhow, what's your guess as to when this all ends? I agree with the "flatten the curve" folks...we don't want to overstress the medical field. But flattening the curve (a good thing!) means that the "event" gets spread out over a longer period of time. It doesn't necessarily change the number of people who are infected....it only influences the timing/number of people who are infected at a given momen. Anyhow. I'm hoping that by mid June we are over the worst of it, and can travel a little, at least domestically. The not knowing is the WORST, isn't it?

Lol

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[goaliedave]

Summer 2021 for normal travel. It will take time for the travel industry to recover and people won't have money to travel after layoffs. Don't know what airlines and hotels will be in business by then either.

Hope it is sooner than that, but I am wary of summer travel in 2020 given the 1918 pandemic came back in the fall unless we find a treatment.

I like this prediction.

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[CalGalTraveler]

I like this prediction.

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Sadly I hope I am wildly wrong. I am already itching to go out.

 

[WVBaker]

I read once that trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window.

Sadly, this is where we are.

 

[b2bailey]

I'm hoping to be able to fly from Palm Springs to San Francisco on May 25. Not ready to give up that idea yet.

 

[easyrider]

I doubt that travel will normalize in many places for years. Especially if c-19 becomes a yearly flu type concern with hit and miss vaccinations. Possibly, many resorts that are nice will be bought up by large companies and many others will go out of business all together. International travel will be a concern for many people even if there isn't a problem with c-19. I remember Mexico after the h1n1 flu in 2009 where no one was going to Mexican destinations even if there wasn't ever a case of h1n1 in that area.

Then c-19 affects on the economy will definitely affect tourism in general. Health considerations for ages over 60 will likely be a travel concern. Maybe the most significant thing about c-19 is no one really knows when it will be over world wide.

Bill

 

[JohnPaul]

As travel is our major retirement activity I hope for sooner but expect later. Unfortunately.

 

[A.Win]

My prediction is that in June 2020, some travel restrictions will be lifted. Most families will travel just like before and accept a bit of risk. The more cautious folks, including the older folks, probably won't travel normally until the fall or perhaps even later. So I see a gradual recovery as the numbers of infected slowly decline.

 

[TravelTime]

I am not concerned about travel. I suspect we will not travel for awhile after this ends. I am most concerned about life getting back to normal. I hope this happens soon and we will be able to go about life as we normally do.

 

[caribbeanqueen]

That is the big question. What will the airlines be doing? Will they have many flights up again or very few? Tentatively Id like to believe July or August. China has already started going back to some normalcy so I am hoping this sweeps through quickly and leaves. How the economy will be is a whole 'nother ball of wax. The fact that they now can treat the critically ill with the new combination of drugs should help. Most have flu like symptoms or barely any. I am pretty sure I had it in January. It really is like a flu to most.

 

[bnoble]

My guess: Not until we have widespread testing (and maybe widespread temperature screening that you might find at many international airports).

Until you can actually test anyone with even mild symptoms plus anyone they've been in close contact with, there is no way to track this, and severe social distancing is the only other option.

How long will that take? Who knows? Alternatively: the development of an effective vaccine at scale. Best guess I've seen for that is sometime in the Fall of 2021.

 

[Luanne]

I'm hoping to be able to fly from Palm Springs to San Francisco on May 25. Not ready to give up that idea yet.

My "prediction" is that San Francisco won't be up and running by then.

 

[goaliedave]

Sadly I hope I am wildly wrong. I am already itching to go out.

Travel local like a tourist! There must be some hills to hike in, rivers or lakes to have a picnic near, etc

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[goaliedave]

My guess: Not until we have widespread testing (and maybe widespread temperature screening that you might find at many international airports).

Until you can actually test anyone with even mild symptoms plus anyone they've been in close contact with, there is no way to track this, and severe social distancing is the only other option.

How long will that take? Who knows? Alternatively: the development of an effective vaccine at scale. Best guess I've seen for that is sometime in the Fall of 2021.

Agree! At some point, governments will require certificates showing negative test results which we must show, like passports.

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[Big Matt]

You have a decent indication that travel won't be back by all of the schools closing. They normally get out from the second half of May to the second half of June. My guess is that travel will start to resume at the end of the summer right when kids go back to school. September is a very light travel month to begin with.

 

[paxsarah]

If I had to guess, not until the last quarter of 2020, and even then not exactly “normal.”

 

[CPNY]

Mid May. If cases continue to rise but severe cases remain low and death rate remains low the media will focus attention elsewhere and people will slowly emerge. Mid May, I say that in the hopes that our health system isn’t overwhelmed because of the low amount of severe cases.

 

[DannyTS]

I am also curios what this will do the the prices.How about groceries, it may be a challenge depending where you travel and the prices may be higher than normal. Other prices may go up as well because businesses may feel they need to charge more to make up for the loss. Other businesses with no pricing power may charge less, just to keep some clientele. Few months ago we booked a car for Maui on Expedia for August 2020. I though it was expensive but I wanted to have a reservation and hopefully get a better price later and cancel what we have. Things may change for the better but right now, every time I look, the cars are 40% more expensive than what I booked!

 

[Luanne]

Mid May. If cases continue to rise but severe cases remain low and death rate remains low the media will focus attention elsewhere and people will slowly emerge. Mid May, I say that in the hopes that our health system isn’t overwhelmed because of the low amount of severe cases.

I think you are overly optimistic. Since most airlines, hotels, etc. are now offering refunds through the end of May I don't think they expect it be be back to "normal". Or were you meaning May 2021?

 

[CPNY]

I think you are overly optimistic. Since most airlines, hotels, etc. are now offering refunds through the end of May I don't think they expect it be be back to "normal". Or were you meaning May 2021?

Just because they are offering refunds doesn’t me it won’t be operational.