• The TUGBBS forums are completely free and open to the public and exist as the absolute best place for owners to get help and advice about their timeshares for more than 30 years!

    Join Tens of Thousands of other Owners just like you here to get any and all Timeshare questions answered 24 hours a day!
  • TUG started 30 years ago in October 1993 as a group of regular Timeshare owners just like you!

    Read about our 30th anniversary: Happy 30th Birthday TUG!
  • TUG has a YouTube Channel to produce weekly short informative videos on popular Timeshare topics!

    Free memberships for every 50 subscribers!

    Visit TUG on Youtube!
  • TUG has now saved timeshare owners more than $21,000,000 dollars just by finding us in time to rescind a new Timeshare purchase! A truly incredible milestone!

    Read more here: TUG saves owners more than $21 Million dollars
  • Sign up to get the TUG Newsletter for free!

    60,000+ subscribing owners! A weekly recap of the best Timeshare resort reviews and the most popular topics discussed by owners!
  • Our official "end my sales presentation early" T-shirts are available again! Also come with the option for a free membership extension with purchase to offset the cost!

    All T-shirt options here!
  • A few of the most common links here on the forums for newbies and guests!

Predictions: When will we be traveling "normally?"

missyrcrews

TUG Review Crew: Expert
TUG Member
Joined
Aug 5, 2014
Messages
1,165
Reaction score
1,560
Points
273
Location
West Bath, me
Resorts Owned
Cold Spring Resort, Acadia Village Resort, Samoset Resort
Like many of you, I'm eyeing my reservations for later in the year, and praying I don't have to cancel. This is the first April break in almost 20 years that I will spend at home. Sigh. I had originally cancelled because of my impending divorce...but now, it turns out to be a good decision due to COVID-19 concerns. Anyhow, what's your guess as to when this all ends? I agree with the "flatten the curve" folks...we don't want to overstress the medical field. But flattening the curve (a good thing!) means that the "event" gets spread out over a longer period of time. It doesn't necessarily change the number of people who are infected....it only influences the timing/number of people who are infected at a given momen. Anyhow. I'm hoping that by mid June we are over the worst of it, and can travel a little, at least domestically. The not knowing is the WORST, isn't it?
 

Braindead

TUG Member
Joined
May 23, 2016
Messages
2,504
Reaction score
1,243
Points
298
I agree with by mid June, the worst will either be behind us or we’re going to learn to live with the virus while getting back to normal life
 

Panina

TUG Review Crew: Elite
TUG Member
Joined
Jul 13, 2015
Messages
6,857
Reaction score
10,095
Points
749
Location
Florida
Resorts Owned
Hgvc Anderson, Blue Ride Village Resort
Imo Due to hot spots shifting in the US, we are very big, there will be some areas out of the high peak while others are not. June is three months away, thinking that might be too soon, summer late July early August is my guess. We are all guessing. I have June bookings and will cancel.
 

CalGalTraveler

TUG Review Crew: Veteran
TUG Member
Joined
Dec 21, 2014
Messages
9,955
Reaction score
8,476
Points
498
Location
California
Resorts Owned
HGVC, MVC Vistana
Summer 2021 for normal travel. It will take time for the travel industry to recover and people won't have money to travel after layoffs. Don't know what airlines and hotels will be in business by then either.

Hope it is sooner than that, but I am wary of summer travel in 2020 given the 1918 pandemic came back in the fall unless we find a treatment.
 

Luanne

TUG Review Crew: Expert
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
19,480
Reaction score
10,367
Points
1,198
Location
New Mexico
Resorts Owned
Maui Lea at Maui Hill
San Diego Country Estates
Due to the extreme changes I've seen in just the last week, went from restaurants being completely open, to only open at 50% capacity, to take out and delivery only, I wouldn't make ANY predictions. Our next trip, since I cancelled the one in May, is in October. Hoping that will happen, but if we have to cancel, we'll cancel.
 

goaliedave

Guest
Joined
Jan 5, 2019
Messages
1,298
Reaction score
854
Points
123
Resorts Owned
Raintree, Diamond (bought by Hilton), Shell (bought by Wyndham), Sheraton (bought by Marriott), Palace Resorts, a few independants
Like many of you, I'm eyeing my reservations for later in the year, and praying I don't have to cancel. This is the first April break in almost 20 years that I will spend at home. Sigh. I had originally cancelled because of my impending divorce...but now, it turns out to be a good decision due to COVID-19 concerns. Anyhow, what's your guess as to when this all ends? I agree with the "flatten the curve" folks...we don't want to overstress the medical field. But flattening the curve (a good thing!) means that the "event" gets spread out over a longer period of time. It doesn't necessarily change the number of people who are infected....it only influences the timing/number of people who are infected at a given momen. Anyhow. I'm hoping that by mid June we are over the worst of it, and can travel a little, at least domestically. The not knowing is the WORST, isn't it?
Lol

Sent from my SM-A505G using Tapatalk
 

goaliedave

Guest
Joined
Jan 5, 2019
Messages
1,298
Reaction score
854
Points
123
Resorts Owned
Raintree, Diamond (bought by Hilton), Shell (bought by Wyndham), Sheraton (bought by Marriott), Palace Resorts, a few independants
Summer 2021 for normal travel. It will take time for the travel industry to recover and people won't have money to travel after layoffs. Don't know what airlines and hotels will be in business by then either.

Hope it is sooner than that, but I am wary of summer travel in 2020 given the 1918 pandemic came back in the fall unless we find a treatment.
I like this prediction.

Sent from my SM-A505G using Tapatalk
 

WVBaker

TUG Member
Joined
Mar 19, 2015
Messages
2,487
Reaction score
2,087
Points
323
I read once that trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window.

Sadly, this is where we are. :ponder:
 

b2bailey

TUG Review Crew
TUG Member
Joined
Oct 30, 2007
Messages
3,743
Reaction score
2,707
Points
598
Location
Santa Cruz CA
I'm hoping to be able to fly from Palm Springs to San Francisco on May 25. Not ready to give up that idea yet.
 

easyrider

TUG Review Crew: Elite
TUG Member
Joined
Aug 21, 2005
Messages
15,445
Reaction score
8,336
Points
948
Location
Palm Springs of Washinton
Resorts Owned
Worldmark * * Villa Del Palmar UVCI * * Vacation Internationale*
I doubt that travel will normalize in many places for years. Especially if c-19 becomes a yearly flu type concern with hit and miss vaccinations. Possibly, many resorts that are nice will be bought up by large companies and many others will go out of business all together. International travel will be a concern for many people even if there isn't a problem with c-19. I remember Mexico after the h1n1 flu in 2009 where no one was going to Mexican destinations even if there wasn't ever a case of h1n1 in that area.

Then c-19 affects on the economy will definitely affect tourism in general. Health considerations for ages over 60 will likely be a travel concern. Maybe the most significant thing about c-19 is no one really knows when it will be over world wide.

Bill
 

JohnPaul

TUG Review Crew: Elite
TUG Member
Joined
Apr 28, 2011
Messages
1,657
Reaction score
850
Points
323
Location
Sacramento, CA
Resorts Owned
Vacation Internationale, HGVC - NYC, Worldmark, Shell Vacations, Sedona Pines, RCI Points, Starwood (Avon, CO)
As travel is our major retirement activity I hope for sooner but expect later. Unfortunately.
 

A.Win

TUG Member
Joined
Oct 20, 2013
Messages
433
Reaction score
170
Points
254
Location
Northern VA
My prediction is that in June 2020, some travel restrictions will be lifted. Most families will travel just like before and accept a bit of risk. The more cautious folks, including the older folks, probably won't travel normally until the fall or perhaps even later. So I see a gradual recovery as the numbers of infected slowly decline.
 

TravelTime

TUG Member
Joined
Mar 20, 2018
Messages
8,095
Reaction score
6,461
Points
499
Location
California
Resorts Owned
All Resale: MVC DPs, Marriott Ko Olina, Marriott Marbella, WKOVR-N, Four Seasons Aviara
I am not concerned about travel. I suspect we will not travel for awhile after this ends. I am most concerned about life getting back to normal. I hope this happens soon and we will be able to go about life as we normally do.
 

caribbeanqueen

TUG Member
Joined
May 7, 2014
Messages
206
Reaction score
135
Points
153
Location
Rhode Island
Resorts Owned
Marriott Surf Club
That is the big question. What will the airlines be doing? Will they have many flights up again or very few? Tentatively Id like to believe July or August. China has already started going back to some normalcy so I am hoping this sweeps through quickly and leaves. How the economy will be is a whole 'nother ball of wax. The fact that they now can treat the critically ill with the new combination of drugs should help. Most have flu like symptoms or barely any. I am pretty sure I had it in January. It really is like a flu to most.
 

bnoble

TUG Member
Joined
Nov 14, 2006
Messages
11,794
Reaction score
5,515
Points
798
Location
The People's Republic of Ann Arbor
My guess: Not until we have widespread testing (and maybe widespread temperature screening that you might find at many international airports).

Until you can actually test anyone with even mild symptoms plus anyone they've been in close contact with, there is no way to track this, and severe social distancing is the only other option.

How long will that take? Who knows? Alternatively: the development of an effective vaccine at scale. Best guess I've seen for that is sometime in the Fall of 2021.
 

Luanne

TUG Review Crew: Expert
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
19,480
Reaction score
10,367
Points
1,198
Location
New Mexico
Resorts Owned
Maui Lea at Maui Hill
San Diego Country Estates
I'm hoping to be able to fly from Palm Springs to San Francisco on May 25. Not ready to give up that idea yet.
My "prediction" is that San Francisco won't be up and running by then.
 

goaliedave

Guest
Joined
Jan 5, 2019
Messages
1,298
Reaction score
854
Points
123
Resorts Owned
Raintree, Diamond (bought by Hilton), Shell (bought by Wyndham), Sheraton (bought by Marriott), Palace Resorts, a few independants
Sadly I hope I am wildly wrong. :( I am already itching to go out.
Travel local like a tourist! There must be some hills to hike in, rivers or lakes to have a picnic near, etc

Sent from my SM-A505G using Tapatalk
 

goaliedave

Guest
Joined
Jan 5, 2019
Messages
1,298
Reaction score
854
Points
123
Resorts Owned
Raintree, Diamond (bought by Hilton), Shell (bought by Wyndham), Sheraton (bought by Marriott), Palace Resorts, a few independants
My guess: Not until we have widespread testing (and maybe widespread temperature screening that you might find at many international airports).

Until you can actually test anyone with even mild symptoms plus anyone they've been in close contact with, there is no way to track this, and severe social distancing is the only other option.

How long will that take? Who knows? Alternatively: the development of an effective vaccine at scale. Best guess I've seen for that is sometime in the Fall of 2021.
Agree! At some point, governments will require certificates showing negative test results which we must show, like passports.

Sent from my SM-A505G using Tapatalk
 

Big Matt

TUG Review Crew: Veteran
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
6,164
Reaction score
1,625
Points
599
Location
Northern Virginia
You have a decent indication that travel won't be back by all of the schools closing. They normally get out from the second half of May to the second half of June. My guess is that travel will start to resume at the end of the summer right when kids go back to school. September is a very light travel month to begin with.
 

paxsarah

TUG Member
Joined
Sep 6, 2010
Messages
3,830
Reaction score
2,976
Points
448
Location
Athens, GA
Resorts Owned
Wyndham Ocean Boulevard, Flagstaff, Grand Desert
If I had to guess, not until the last quarter of 2020, and even then not exactly “normal.”
 

CPNY

TUG Member
Joined
Jun 18, 2019
Messages
7,612
Reaction score
4,478
Points
399
Resorts Owned
Harborside Resort at Atlantis
SVV - Key West/Bella
WKV
Regal Vista at Massanutten
Mid May. If cases continue to rise but severe cases remain low and death rate remains low the media will focus attention elsewhere and people will slowly emerge. Mid May, I say that in the hopes that our health system isn’t overwhelmed because of the low amount of severe cases.
 

DannyTS

TUG Member
Joined
Mar 24, 2018
Messages
5,753
Reaction score
3,076
Points
348
I am also curios what this will do the the prices.How about groceries, it may be a challenge depending where you travel and the prices may be higher than normal. Other prices may go up as well because businesses may feel they need to charge more to make up for the loss. Other businesses with no pricing power may charge less, just to keep some clientele. Few months ago we booked a car for Maui on Expedia for August 2020. I though it was expensive but I wanted to have a reservation and hopefully get a better price later and cancel what we have. Things may change for the better but right now, every time I look, the cars are 40% more expensive than what I booked!
 
Last edited:

Luanne

TUG Review Crew: Expert
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
19,480
Reaction score
10,367
Points
1,198
Location
New Mexico
Resorts Owned
Maui Lea at Maui Hill
San Diego Country Estates
Mid May. If cases continue to rise but severe cases remain low and death rate remains low the media will focus attention elsewhere and people will slowly emerge. Mid May, I say that in the hopes that our health system isn’t overwhelmed because of the low amount of severe cases.
I think you are overly optimistic. Since most airlines, hotels, etc. are now offering refunds through the end of May I don't think they expect it be be back to "normal". Or were you meaning May 2021?
 

CPNY

TUG Member
Joined
Jun 18, 2019
Messages
7,612
Reaction score
4,478
Points
399
Resorts Owned
Harborside Resort at Atlantis
SVV - Key West/Bella
WKV
Regal Vista at Massanutten
I think you are overly optimistic. Since most airlines, hotels, etc. are now offering refunds through the end of May I don't think they expect it be be back to "normal". Or were you meaning May 2021?
Just because they are offering refunds doesn’t me it won’t be operational.
 
Top