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Predictions: When will we be traveling "normally?"

TravelTime

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I suspect that by next Wednesday - our daily update from the Administration will be for the entire nation to SAH and enforced by each State. Hopefully- should have already been done (IMO, and Science).

We have been sheltered for 1 week and no one has gotten sick. Luckily, because we pulled my MIL out of a Senior Care Center to care for her at home, and if she will not survive if infected.

When I have gone out (food) - I am very careful. It helps that I have worked in clean-rooms before and have gloves, a mask, and sanitizer (hand and 81% isopropyl spray).
Hopefully, none of the nurses and therapists that have come over are clean.


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Wishing you the best in keeping your MIL healthy and safe.
 

missyrcrews

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I just want to go to our home timeshare 100 miles away in NH, or over to Smuggs. Later in the summer, I need to get out to Missouri for the once-a-year trip to see my parents. We drive there, though. Crossings fingers, toes, and everything else!
 

queenofthehive

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I think it is going to be 18 months and that is with a vaccine. This is not going to go away quickly and life will not resume to normal by summer. Flu pandemics usually come in waves. Usually high mortality at the beginning of the wave, then tapering off, then another wave especially if it mutates into another strain. Which makes me wonder if there is not already another strain going around due to some people being hit harder than others especially in young people. Just my thoughts..
 

b2bailey

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Staying on topic - based on previous post. Traveling ‘normal’ again - until next disaster - will happen quicker by how well we can contain the virus (and not Healthcare Capacity) by practicing SIP/SAH for quite a while (depending) or until vaccine and efficacious drugs can be found.

My prediction is Sept for domestic travel if America can effectively social distance/SIP/SAH. Hard to know about international travel. Will probably depend on region. Africa and other 3rd world nations are about to be hit hard.

dd9b04a1b2605b7b76a1db98a143a0e5.jpg




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Except that the words in green are the Self-isolation rules and require most businesses to close.
Social distancing is nothing like that.
 

CPNY

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Staying on topic - based on previous post. Traveling ‘normal’ again - until next disaster - will happen quicker by how well we can contain the virus (and not Healthcare Capacity) by practicing SIP/SAH for quite a while (depending) or until vaccine and efficacious drugs can be found.

My prediction is Sept for domestic travel if America can effectively social distance/SIP/SAH. Hard to know about international travel. Will probably depend on region. Africa and other 3rd world nations are about to be hit hard.

dd9b04a1b2605b7b76a1db98a143a0e5.jpg




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This is great! On the travel front, let’s not forget this virus does not like heat. Looking at the Asian countries, Thailand and Singapore didn’t have much in terms of outbreak. Where colder climate countries had many cases; Japan, China, and SK. I think we may see some relief with the warmer months coming. Maybe not much but it could help. Things will return to normal quicker than we think. I’m remaining positive here. By June people will be traveling but taking precautions. We may see an rise in cases in the fall. As far as vaccines, we won’t see those for a while. If hydrocloroquine is working which in many cases it has worked, they may be using that in severe cases. If we can keep the death rate down and STAY HOME. Most wont need ICU beds and we can keep them open for elderly and those who need them. I’m usually the glass half empty guy; on this I’m extremely aware and have been home for over three weeks only leaving to buy groceries when needed (twice so far) and to throw trash at midnight. But I’m trying my best to maintain a positive outlook that we won’t see what Italy is seeing now.
 

T_R_Oglodyte

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Staying on topic - based on previous post. Traveling ‘normal’ again - until next disaster - will happen quicker by how well we can contain the virus (and not Healthcare Capacity) by practicing SIP/SAH for quite a while (depending) or until vaccine and efficacious drugs can be found.
I believe that the reverse is actually true. Containment of the virus is long past as a management strategy - that was clear a month ago when people in Washington state had corona virus and there was no way to trace their exposure back to a known cluster. That meant that containment was no longer possible. Based on mutations in the detected virus cases, virologists at research institutions concluded that the virus had been circulating undetected for about six weeks.

So we are no longer trying to contain the virus. What we are doing is trying to reduce the rate at which it spreads within the population so that the medical care system is not overwhelmed. But the corollary to that strategy is that everybody will ultimately be exposed and likely infected.

The fastest way to return to "normal" would be to take no precautions at all. Let the virus spread as quickly as possible so that the world population is exposed as quickly as possible. That is the shortest path to developing worldwide resistance/immunity, which then ends the pandemic. Of course, that also maximizes the number of deaths that occur.

Ultimately virtually everyone in the world is going to be exposed. Flattening merely extends the time over which that exposure occurs. So the better job we do in containing the virus, the longer the pandemic lasts.

This is illustrated in the graphics in the article. Note that increasing the effectiveness of social distancing knocks down the peak but lengthens the time until full recovery is reached.

Returning to the topic of when will "normal" travel be allowed. I am skeptical of anything less than six months. We haven't yet canceled our August travel to Hawai'i, but I have serious doubts that it will occur.
 

turkel

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We plan on traveling in June. Even if the time is just spent in the timeshare. We have airline tickets but can and will drive the 11 hours if needed.

We retire in Nov 2020 we have 2 separate month long trips planned in 2021. Unless required by law or travel ban we will continue our plans. As a nurse and DH public servant job we will either have been exposed and recovered or not. We plan to live life to its fullest and travel is a big part of our plan.

Our May trip to Washington DC was cancelled. Bummer for us, but life goes on. We would have been part of the crowd so it wasn’t a good idea and knew that the event would likely be cancelled.

We cancelled our flight home this week, we will be driving down with toilet paper and paper towels for my mom and DD. Will spend the majority of our time at home SIP.

Not sure how we will spend the almost 2 k we have on credit w Southworst for our 4 cancelled tickets in the next 12 months especially once we retire and the Oakland airport is 400 plus miles away. Not sure of their routes out of John Wayne/SNA.

Normal will return maybe a new normal but life continues for the living at some point .
 

goaliedave

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I believe that the reverse is actually true. Containment of the virus is long past as a management strategy - that was clear a month ago when people in Washington state had corona virus and there was no way to trace their exposure back to a known cluster. That meant that containment was no longer possible. Based on mutations in the detected virus cases, virologists at research institutions concluded that the virus had been circulating undetected for about six weeks.

So we are no longer trying to contain the virus. What we are doing is trying to reduce the rate at which it spreads within the population so that the medical care system is not overwhelmed. But the corollary to that strategy is that everybody will ultimately be exposed and likely infected.

The fastest way to return to "normal" would be to take no precautions at all. Let the virus spread as quickly as possible so that the world population is exposed as quickly as possible. That is the shortest path to developing worldwide resistance/immunity, which then ends the pandemic. Of course, that also maximizes the number of deaths that occur.

Ultimately virtually everyone in the world is going to be exposed. Flattening merely extends the time over which that exposure occurs. So the better job we do in containing the virus, the longer the pandemic lasts.

This is illustrated in the graphics in the article. Note that increasing the effectiveness of social distancing knocks down the peak but lengthens the time until full recovery is reached.

Returning to the topic of when will "normal" travel be allowed. I am skeptical of anything less than six months. We haven't yet canceled our August travel to Hawai'i, but I have serious doubts that it will occur.
Yup. Containment is too late, but still needed, now its about hospital beds and ventilators.

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dsmrp

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Yup. Containment is too late, but still needed, now its about hospital beds and ventilators.

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And PPE (personal protective equipment) for the front-line health care staff.
There's world wide demand, and no one can get it fast enough.
 

goaliedave

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And PPE (personal protective equipment) for the front-line health care staff.
There's world wide demand, and no one can get it fast enough.
Thankfully in Canada we have enough due to foresight of "pandemic" units in each province. Supplies for residents are being priorized to those hospitalized. Whisky makers have switched to hand sanitizer, masks same, face shields being produced by maker spaces, etc.

I'm currently in BC (population 5 million) where today the Minister of Health announced 3300 new beds available from repurposing various facilities, overall 66% occupancy and ready for more virus hospitalizations.

One good change from all this hopefully countries will focus more on domestic production of many things.

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clifffaith

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Erin Burnett just commented they have surfaces on the Diamond Princess that had live virus 17 days later. Doesn't bode well for wanting to get on a cruise ship anytime soon. Cliff and I came home sick as dogs from a 2014 Viking cruise. I was already symptomatic on the bus from the cruise to two days in Prague (we'd spent five days in Munich before the cruise, but timing convinces me we picked it up from another cruise passenger). I then spent five days in bed in Berlin, and we left our hosts sick. Three more days in bed in Paris before we arrived home, likely infecting others along the way. Five more days sick at home. And that was some sort of "regular" virus. Loved our trip, but just laying out in writing how long we were sick doesn't make me as anxious to book the St. Petersburg/Moscow cruise.
 

VacationForever

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It is interesting to read
Erin Burnett just commented they have surfaces on the Diamond Princess that had live virus 17 days later. Doesn't bode well for wanting to get on a cruise ship anytime soon. Cliff and I came home sick as dogs from a 2014 Viking cruise. I was already symptomatic on the bus from the cruise to two days in Prague (we'd spent five days in Munich before the cruise, but timing convinces me we picked it up from another cruise passenger). I then spent five days in bed in Berlin, and we left our hosts sick. Three more days in bed in Paris before we arrived home, likely infecting others along the way. Five more days sick at home. And that was some sort of "regular" virus. Loved our trip, but just laying out in writing how long we were sick doesn't make me as anxious to book the St. Petersburg/Moscow cruise.
We are 100% done with cruises. We have enjoyed cruises and seen many parts of the world, but we are now perfectly happy just doing drive-to vacations and enjoying what we have here in our community.
 

DannyTS

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It is interesting to read

We are 100% done with cruises. We have enjoyed cruises and seen many parts of the world, but we are now perfectly happy just doing drive-to vacations and enjoying what we have here in our community.
I just do not see how people will go back on cruise ships anytime soon and probably a lot of their customers will never return.

@clifffaith my understanding is that unless you are in contact with a certain number of virus units, you either do not catch it or we can produce enough antibodies to get rid of it soon and more or less without symptoms. The mere fact that it may be present on a surface does not necessarily mean you will get sick. Also, studies have shown it can be present on certain materials for 1-3 days,17 days sounds very hard to believe, especially if we do not know the source of the information
 

paxsarah

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17 days sounds very hard to believe, especially if we do not know the source of the information
The CDC: "SARS-CoV-2 RNA was identified on a variety of surfaces in cabins of both symptomatic and asymptomatic infected passengers up to 17 days after cabins were vacated on the Diamond Princess but before disinfection procedures had been conducted (Takuya Yamagishi, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, personal communication, 2020). Although these data cannot be used to determine whether transmission occurred from contaminated surfaces, further study of fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 aboard cruise ships is warranted."
 

DannyTS

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The CDC: "SARS-CoV-2 RNA was identified on a variety of surfaces in cabins of both symptomatic and asymptomatic infected passengers up to 17 days after cabins were vacated on the Diamond Princess but before disinfection procedures had been conducted (Takuya Yamagishi, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, personal communication, 2020). Although these data cannot be used to determine whether transmission occurred from contaminated surfaces, further study of fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 aboard cruise ships is warranted."
you will decide for yourself if, after 17 days, the traces met the definition of a virus

Does the cruise ship report imply that viruses survive up to 17 days on surfaces?
Dr Julia Marcus: A CDC investigation of the cruise ship found evidence of viral RNA in cabins that hadn’t yet been cleaned. But to be clear, that just means the virus was detectable – not that it was viable or that contact with those services would have been able to infect someone. (Editor’s note: RNA, or ribonucleic acid, carries the virus’s genetic information.)

Dr Akiko Iwasaki: It just means that there are parts of the virus that still remain. The virus needs many other components to be intact. If you have bits and pieces of RNA, that’s not going to make a virus, you need an entire intact genome. Just because you had a little piece of RNA doesn’t mean that there’s an infection.

 

paxsarah

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That's fine. I was just providing the source of the information.

Edit: Which is why I found it amusing that you posted this in another thread. The same thought occurred to me when you complained here that we didn't know the source of the information.
why, you do not have google?
 
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