Predictions: When will we be traveling "normally?"

[Luanne]

Just because they are offering refunds doesn’t me it won’t be operational.

I'm really hoping you are right. I just think [personally] you're being overly optimistic. Do you really think airlines and hotels would be offering full refunds if they thought they'd be operational?

 

[DannyTS]

We also have to define normal. For cruise lines, it will take a very long time until people forget and will want to be stuck on a boat. All inclusive may also have a harder time to recover. I read that the biggest contamination factors on the boats were the buffets were everyone touches everything. I hope the timeshares will come back sooner. A) we have to use our weeks so we will find ways to justify to ourselves travelling sooner B) In most units we have everything we have at home and we depend less on the local restaurants if we want to still be less exposed.

 

[Sugarcubesea]

I’m hoping for the end of June but realistically I think it will be August

 

[DannyTS]

I think you are overly optimistic. Since most airlines, hotels, etc. are now offering refunds through the end of May I don't think they expect it be be back to "normal". Or were you meaning May 2021?

we will have to see about that. It may be optimistic but it is hard to see the green shoots when all the reported news is negative. I was looking at the number of NEW cases in Canada and if I read the graphic right, the new number of cases is actually declining already. Nobody sees it that way because all that you read in the media is the TOTAL number of cases which is of course rising.

COVID-19 epidemiology update: Summary — Canada.ca

Summary of COVID-19 activity levels, hospitalizations and deaths, testing and variants, and outbreaks across Canada and over time.

www.canada.ca

 

[gnorth16]

I’ll give my (air traffic controller) two cents...

This is going to get worse before it gets better. Our shifts have been cut by a third (more coming) traffic is down almost 50% and I fully expect a commercial air travel ban in the next two weeks (which is three weeks to late). Its now being spread in Canada by travel to infected areas within Canada, not just internationally. I’m sure it’s the same in the US, just multiply it by 30 times (or more) cause of population.

I predict a travel ban through to the end of May, with less than half the flights coming back in June, with normal operations in May 2021. By then, dozens of airlines, travel agencies, hotels and travel related companies file for bankruptcy or fold. Travel credits become worthless, travel insurance is void for Covid-19, disposable cash is down and people are scared to travel.

Pessimist? Yes.
I’ve talked to pilots that have planes at 15% capacity. Its a matter of days til those flights get cancelled.

 

[Luanne]

we will have to see about that. It may be optimistic but it is hard to see the green shoots when all the reported news is negative. I was looking at the number of NEW cases in Canada and if I read the graphic right, the new number of cases is actually declining already. Nobody sees it that way because all that you read in the media is the TOTAL number of cases which is of course rising.



View attachment 18174

I still wonder if that decline in numbers is due to people not getting tested.

 

[SteelerGal]

I agree 2021. W/ the mass uncertainity regarding the economy worldwide, if ppl do travel it will be locally.

We will still continue to do driving trips but I don't we will use any trips requiring air travel until 2022.

 

[DannyTS]

I still wonder if that decline in numbers is due to people not getting tested.

actually they are testing more and more people, so far about 80k. This is a common miss-conception. By the way, I read somewhere that 85% of the population thinks got the virus already but the vast majority of the tests come back negative (99%!)

 

[DannyTS]

I’m sure it’s the same in the US, just multiply it by 30 times (or more) cause of population.

you probably mean by 10 times approx

 

[TravelTime]

I think travel will rebound AFTER the economy rebounds. With all the people getting laid off and many more to come, the economy will be in for a rough time. I suspect it will take a couple years for an economic rebound, assuming the Shelter in Home restrictions are lifted and country borders are opened by this summer. I could see 2022 being an optimistic timeline for travel starting to rebound. This is just my opinion, based on what I have been reading about how soon health precautions could be lifted and when the economy could improve.

 

[SteelerGal]

actually they are testing more and more people, so far about 80k. This is a common miss-conception. By the way, I read somewhere that 85% of the population thinks got the virus already but the vast majority of the tests come back negative (99%!)

There are reports that CA and NY have stopped mass testing because they need medical staff healthy. There are mass shortages. I know on my local groups, ppl are donating supplies to hospitals.

 

[goaliedave]

I’ll give my (air traffic controller) two cents...

This is going to get worse before it gets better. Our shifts have been cut by a third (more coming) traffic is down almost 50% and I fully expect a commercial air travel ban in the next two weeks (which is three weeks to late). Its now being spread in Canada by travel to infected areas within Canada, not just internationally. I’m sure it’s the same in the US, just multiply it by 30 times (or more) cause of population.

I predict a travel ban through to the end of May, with less than half the flights coming back in June, with normal operations in May 2021. By then, dozens of airlines, travel agencies, hotels and travel related companies file for bankruptcy or fold. Travel credits become worthless, travel insurance is void for Covid-19, disposable cash is down and people are scared to travel.

Pessimist? Yes.
I’ve talked to pilots that have planes at 15% capacity. Its a matter of days til those flights get cancelled.

Great post, agree! Govts will bail out selected airlines, hotels will reduce locations, people who lost jobs won't have money to travel, it'll be fall before testing is widespread... May 2021 for international travel good guess.

Ts companies should roll forward points to 2021 like they do for natural disaster affected resorts like St. Martin.

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[DavidnRobin]

actually they are testing more and more people, so far about 80k. This is a common miss-conception. By the way, I read somewhere that 85% of the population thinks got the virus already but the vast majority of the tests come back negative (99%!)

80,000/320,000,000 {USA population}
equals
0.025% of population tested
[25 people out of 100,000]
=> 99.975% untested

In fact the numbers are not going up dramatically due to lack of testing.

Asked another way...
How many people do you know personally that have been tested?
How many have tested positive?

I know one person that has been tested (Robin), and we live in a county of ~2 million. We are waiting for her result - going on 4 days since she has been tested thru Project Baseline.


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[goaliedave]

There are reports that CA and NY have stopped mass testing because they need medical staff healthy. There are mass shortages. I know on my local groups, ppl are donating supplies to hospitals.

Medical staff shortages for sure. Canada is trying to get ahead of this by making it easier for foreign trained professionals to get residency. Phillipines is the largest exporter of nurses, all the ones i met working overseas wanted to come to Canada, countries will soon be competing hard for them!

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[Passepartout]

'Normally' will be a NEW normal. I doubt travel will EVER return to the 'normal' of last November to January, when we went to Japan, China, Korea, Mexico, dining out at favorite restaurants with multiple friends. Planning those 'trips of a lifetime' with extended family. Going to crowded theaters, festivals, sporting events, etc.

Nope. We may ease into travel with a road trip to nearby locales deemed 'safe'. Then if airlines are again flying, we may venture to areas where we don't feel we might get sick or quarantined.

I expect cruises will take some time to convince the public that they are safe and clean. But those times when we'd book a cruise to an 'exotic' location, confident that we can fly home afterwards are probably gone.

Best case: science comes up with an effective vaccine and treatments that cure people quickly. These medical treatments become widespread worldwide as soon as possible. But that's going to be a while. And meanwhile not so much damage is done to the economy that it can recover.

I don't expect the beginning of a return to travel until Spring of 2021. And imo, that's an optimistic guess.

I hope I'm wrong.

Jim

 

[DannyTS]

80,000/320,000,000 {USA population}
equals
0.025% of population tested
[2.5 people out of 100,000]
=> 99.075% untested

In fact the numbers are not going up dramatically due to lack of testing.

Asked another way...
How many people do you know personally that have been tested?
How many have tested positive?

I know one person that has been tested (Robin), and we live in a county of ~2 million. We are waiting for her result - going on 4 days since she has been tested thru Project Baseline.


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To be clear, I was speaking strictly about Canada. Also ,you cannot test the whole population nor do you need to

 

[DavidnRobin]

I corrected math btw - fat fingers.
I missed the Canada aspect.

I am a retired modeler and have done my share of disease modeling (oncology) using non-linear mixed effects modeling methodology (and others) and worked with epidemiologists professionally - so I certainly realize not all patients to be tested. But...

Conversely - the number of tests administered and results (lagging 2-5 days with an incubation period of ~5 days before effect) in the US is severely lagging and extremely confounded by variability and non-homogeneous populations and lack of data (from testing) to make accurate predictions.

The testing and results in US are severely lagging. If the population is under-tested, the values for number of tested, positives, and mortalities will lack accuracy.

Social distancing only puts off the peak, but has same area-under-curve (AUC -> number of subjects infected) as contamination in clean population is problematic. SIP/SAH (shelter-in-place, stay at home) delays the peak and reduces the AUC. However, not only is compliance is important, but a problem also exists when the total population is mixed (from nothing to social-distance to SIP/SAH). Pure quarantine is the best practice, but impossible to achieve unless in a very controlled environment. This would bring the rate to zero after the initial infection/recovery/death phase is over.

The better we can achieve quarantine- the better the outcome.
Unfortunately, that is impossible. IMO, I wish the US would SIP/SAH as much as possible - then prevent contaminated populations from infecting until population immunity levels are achieved. I suspect that will be the next step - probably next week.

So there’s that...
Stay Safe.

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[DannyTS]

Going back to the topic of this post, one way for the governments to help the tourism get back on its feet: waive all the taxes related to airfares for a year. It is great they are helping the hotel chains to stay afloat but if noone has the money to travel afterwards, only half of the job is done

 

[gnorth16]

you probably mean by 10 times approx

Yes. That is what I meant. That’s what you get for doing math after working a midnight shift.

 

[goaliedave]

I corrected math btw - fat fingers.
I missed the Canada aspect.

I am a retired modeler and have done my share of disease modeling (oncology) using non-linear mixed effects modeling methodology (and others) and worked with epidemiologists professionally - so I certainly realize not all patients to be tested. But...

Conversely - the number of tests administered and results (lagging 2-5 days with an incubation period of ~5 days before effect) in the US is severely lagging and extremely confounded by variability and non-homogeneous populations and lack of data (from testing) to make accurate predictions.

The testing and results in US are severely lagging. If the population is under-tested, the values for number of tested, positives, and mortalities will lack accuracy.

Social distancing only puts off the peak, but has same area-under-curve (AUC -> number of subjects infected) as contamination in clean population is problematic. SIP/SAH (shelter-in-place, stay at home) delays the peak and reduces the AUC. However, not only is compliance is important, but a problem also exists when the total population is mixed (from nothing to social-distance to SIP/SAH). Pure quarantine is the best practice, but impossible to achieve unless in a very controlled environment. This would bring the rate to zero after the initial infection/recovery/death phase is over.

The better we can achieve quarantine- the better the outcome.
Unfortunately, that is impossible. IMO, I wish the US would SIP/SAH as much as possible - then prevent contaminated populations from infecting until population immunity levels are achieved. I suspect that will be the next step - probably next week.

So there’s that...
Stay Safe.

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Agree. Unfortunately, as you say, SAH and stricter methods are unlikely to work very successfully in USA.

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[DavidnRobin]

Going back to the topic of this post, one way for the governments to help the tourism get back on its feet: waive all the taxes related to airfares for a year. It is great they are helping the hotel chains to stay afloat but if noone has the money to travel afterwards, only half of the job is done

Staying on topic - based on previous post. Traveling ‘normal’ again - until next disaster - will happen quicker by how well we can contain the virus (and not Healthcare Capacity) by practicing SIP/SAH for quite a while (depending) or until vaccine and efficacious drugs can be found.

My prediction is Sept for domestic travel if America can effectively social distance/SIP/SAH. Hard to know about international travel. Will probably depend on region. Africa and other 3rd world nations are about to be hit hard.

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[DavidnRobin]

Agree. Unfortunately, as you say, SAH and stricter methods are unlikely to work very successfully in USA.

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I suspect that by next Wednesday - our daily update from the Administration will be for the entire nation to SAH and enforced by each State. Hopefully- should have already been done (IMO, and Science).

We have been sheltered for 1 week and no one has gotten sick. Luckily, because we pulled my MIL out of a Senior Care Center to care for her at home, and if she will not survive if infected.

When I have gone out (food) - I am very careful. It helps that I have worked in clean-rooms before and have gloves, a mask, and sanitizer (hand and 81% isopropyl spray).
Hopefully, none of the nurses and therapists that have come over are clean.


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[easyrider]

Travel local like a tourist! There must be some hills to hike in, rivers or lakes to have a picnic near, etc

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I totally agree with you. I love our area. Plenty of things to do but its pretty hard to be a snowbird playing in the snow, lol. I sure hope to be some where warm next winter.

Bill

 

[b2bailey]

We also have to define normal. For cruise lines, it will take a very long time until people forget and will want to be stuck on a boat. All inclusive may also have a harder time to recover. I read that the biggest contamination factors on the boats were the buffets were everyone touches everything. I hope the timeshares will come back sooner. A) we have to use our weeks so we will find ways to justify to ourselves travelling sooner B) In most units we have everything we have at home and we depend less on the local restaurants if we want to still be less exposed.

A good friend of mine who is an avid cruiser, just said to me today: "Do you think I'll be able to make the cruise reserved for late June?" She is raring to go and has not been hindered in her thinking about cruising.

 

[DannyTS]

A good friend of mine who is an avid cruiser, just said to me today: "Do you think I'll be able to make the cruise reserved for late June?" She is raring to go and has not been hindered in her thinking about cruising.

lol I am glad if I was wrong, maybe there is hope for a speedy recovery for the whole industry