Oct. 18: Now that Hawaii is open, it's time for the NEW AND IMPROVED COVID-19 poll and discussion thread.

[csodjd]

Following the directions to a T is the Key. Every post I've seen here and on Social Media where people were sent home or to quarantine had one or more elements missing.

Some (many?) people find following directions difficult.

Reminds me of getting our updated California license so we could use it for flying. I heard all these horror stories, including from my brother, about how screwed up the system was, the DMV, etc. My wife and I went right though without a hitch. We just made sure we had exactly what they said we needed to have, organized and ready for them.

 

[lynne]

Kauai visitor tests positive for COVID-19 after twice testing negative | Honolulu Star-Advertiser

Kauai health officials today reported a new positive case of COVID-19 from an adult, female visitor who has been placed in isolation.

www.staradvertiser.com

 

[Blues]

Reminds me of getting our updated California license so we could use it for flying. I heard all these horror stories, including from my brother, about how screwed up the system was, the DMV, etc. My wife and I went right though without a hitch. We just made sure we had exactly what they said we needed to have, organized and ready for them.

You must have gone after California changed the rules. They originally said they needed only one item documenting your address -- utility bill, etc. My wife went in with two (or three) pieces anyway. They only wrote down one in their records. So of course, once California realized that they didn't meet Federal standards and should have required two, my wife had to provide a 2nd type of proof (which, CA decided, could include responding to the letter requesting more proof, since that means you received it at the documented address. What a zoo!)

Point being, following directions to a T is no guarantee of satisfying a governmental agency :-(

 

[lynne]

"This is a traveler who followed both the mandatory and voluntary testing programs and still tested positive days later," said Kaua‘i District Health Officer Dr. Janet Berreman. "This case shows us that travelers who become infected near or after the pre-travel test may not test positive for several days after their arrival. For best results, the preferable time to take a post-travel test would be about a week after arrival. We also understand people may not be on island that long and in those cases, a test three days after arrival is encouraged."

https://www.kauai.gov/Portals/0/Mayor/PIO/NR102820MO.pdf?ver=2020-10-28-112234-357

 

[csodjd]

"This is a traveler who followed both the mandatory and voluntary testing programs and still tested positive days later," said Kaua‘i District Health Officer Dr. Janet Berreman. "This case shows us that travelers who become infected near or after the pre-travel test may not test positive for several days after their arrival. For best results, the preferable time to take a post-travel test would be about a week after arrival. We also understand people may not be on island that long and in those cases, a test three days after arrival is encouraged."

https://www.kauai.gov/Portals/0/Mayor/PIO/NR102820MO.pdf?ver=2020-10-28-112234-357

The appropriate thing is to continue to require masks and social distancing and other routine mitigation requirements to prevent the occasional "slippage" from being an issue. They cannot set a bar that every person with infection must be discovered. The point is to prevent spread.

 

[klpca]

The appropriate thing is to continue to require masks and social distancing and other routine mitigation requirements to prevent the occasional "slippage" from being an issue. They cannot set a bar that every person with infection must be discovered. The point is to prevent spread.

Exactly. I posted in another thread (I think) that we haven't really seen big spikes being blamed on our untested tourists. I was surprised honestly. Our college students have had more impact because surprise, surprise...kids party and let down their guard. Social distancing, masks, and basic hygiene will give us the best shot at preventing the spread when traveling to Hawaii. Easy enough to do.

 

[MULTIZ321]

Whoops. Passenger boards plane, flies to Hawaii with COVID 19.

Whoops. Passenger boards plane, flies to Hawaii with COVID-19.

A passenger boarding a Honolulu-bound flight with a

www.sfgate.com

.


Richard

 

[PearlCity]

Whoops. Passenger boards plane, flies to Hawaii with COVID 19.

Whoops. Passenger boards plane, flies to Hawaii with COVID-19.

A passenger boarding a Honolulu-bound flight with a

www.sfgate.com

.


Richard

Yes this is one of the main concerns residents had about reopening. Then there is the false sense of security tourists feel with the negative test and not needing to wear a mask. We'll have to see how this plays out. I hope we can keep COVID under control but wouldn't be surprised if we can't.

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[csodjd]

Yes this is one of the main concerns residents had about reopening. Then there is the false sense of security tourists feel with the negative test and not needing to wear a mask. We'll have to see how this plays out. I hope we can keep COVID under control but wouldn't be surprised if we can't.

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I think the latter concern is a more valid one. I'd like to see the State of Hawaii put a professionally produced public service announcement together that plays on every flight into Hawaii explaining in simple terms what the rules are, and why they are. Help people understand that the ability to enjoy their vacation depends on them, and everyone else, following simple rules like wearing masks, because testing is helpful, but imperfect.

 

[PearlCity]

Yes i think there are local groups pushing for that. We have a captuve audience on the planes. Hopefully the state does this soon.

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[Tamaradarann]

Exactly. I posted in another thread (I think) that we haven't really seen big spikes being blamed on our untested tourists. I was surprised honestly. Our college students have had more impact because surprise, surprise...kids party and let down their guard. Social distancing, masks, and basic hygiene will give us the best shot at preventing the spread when traveling to Hawaii. Easy enough to do.

I agree with what you have said here about students being in close contact with other students, partying and letting their guard down. The State University of NY has issued a directive to all 64 branches of the State University that before the students that live on campus can go home for Thanksgiving they MUST test negatative for the virus or they must stay quarantined on campus to protect Parents and Kapuna as well as others that they will come in contact with during the Thanksgiving Day Holiday. Then the schools will be closed for the remainder of the semester to on campus classes and school with continue remotely. My Son and Grandson that attend Universities have been living home and taking all of their classes remotely so that will not be an issue for them.

 

[csodjd]

Whoops. Passenger boards plane, flies to Hawaii with COVID 19.

Whoops. Passenger boards plane, flies to Hawaii with COVID-19.

A passenger boarding a Honolulu-bound flight with a

www.sfgate.com

.

Richard

Post-arrival surveillance testing finds a handful of Hawaii travelers with COVID-19

Secondary, post-arrival tests conducted through the surveillance testing program are voluntary.

www.hawaiinewsnow.com

"Out of 9,323 tests conducted so far, Green said, six passengers tested positive for COVID-19. That translates into 1 out 1,553 passengers ― lower than what the state had anticipated.

If that rate holds, it would mean that roughly 50 of the more than 82,000 travelers who have come into the state through the pre-travel testing program since it’s launch Oct. 15 have been positive for coronavirus ― even though they tested negative before departure."

This is actually considerably fewer than I calculated would arrive and probably reflects the self-selection of people coming to Hawaii being a low-risk group generally. As long as those 50 or so don't trigger community spread, which by most measures they should not, it's inconsequential to the overall plan going forward.

 

[lynne]

Another Kauai visitor has tested positive after testing negative on arrival - 4 active cases all related to mainland travel (2 visitors/2 residents) community spread will not be far behind

Visitor hospitalized, tests positive for COVID-19 on Kauai

Contact tracers identified the close contacts of an adult male visitor who tested positive for COVID-19 on Kauai.

www.khon2.com

 

[csodjd]

Another Kauai visitor has tested positive after testing negative on arrival - 4 active cases all related to mainland travel (2 visitors/2 residents) community spread will not be far behind

Visitor hospitalized, tests positive for COVID-19 on Kauai

Contact tracers identified the close contacts of an adult male visitor who tested positive for COVID-19 on Kauai.

www.khon2.com

There are important questions there IF there is community spread.
1. Will that spread come from the visitors, the residents, or both?

This is more political than medical, because a person is a person. But in terms of reopening the tourism industry, allowing visitors, avoiding need for quarantine rules, enforcement of rules, etc., it's important to know which "kind" of person led to community spread.

2. Will there be/is there good contact tracing allowing the scope of the spread to be quickly ascertained and stopped?

It is impossible, without closing the island, to keep all COVID out. The keys are making it less likely (testing) and preventing much spread when it happens (tracing). This is epidemiology 101. Test and trace, isolating the infection and ending the spread.

 

[Tamaradarann]

Post-arrival surveillance testing finds a handful of Hawaii travelers with COVID-19

Secondary, post-arrival tests conducted through the surveillance testing program are voluntary.

www.hawaiinewsnow.com

"Out of 9,323 tests conducted so far, Green said, six passengers tested positive for COVID-19. That translates into 1 out 1,553 passengers ― lower than what the state had anticipated.

If that rate holds, it would mean that roughly 50 of the more than 82,000 travelers who have come into the state through the pre-travel testing program since it’s launch Oct. 15 have been positive for coronavirus ― even though they tested negative before departure."

This is actually considerably fewer than I calculated would arrive and probably reflects the self-selection of people coming to Hawaii being a low-risk group generally. As long as those 50 or so don't trigger community spread, which by most measures they should not, it's inconsequential to the overall plan going forward.

What is the basis for the part of your statement, "by most measures they should not"?

 

[DannyTS]

Post-arrival surveillance testing finds a handful of Hawaii travelers with COVID-19

Secondary, post-arrival tests conducted through the surveillance testing program are voluntary.

www.hawaiinewsnow.com

"Out of 9,323 tests conducted so far, Green said, six passengers tested positive for COVID-19. That translates into 1 out 1,553 passengers ― lower than what the state had anticipated.

If that rate holds, it would mean that roughly 50 of the more than 82,000 travelers who have come into the state through the pre-travel testing program since it’s launch Oct. 15 have been positive for coronavirus ― even though they tested negative before departure."

This is actually considerably fewer than I calculated would arrive and probably reflects the self-selection of people coming to Hawaii being a low-risk group generally. As long as those 50 or so don't trigger community spread, which by most measures they should not, it's inconsequential to the overall plan going forward.

You expected around 3-5% to test positive. But anyway, since we know the tests are oversensitive, possibly none of the 5 that tested positive is actually shedding the virus. I wish they disclosed the number of reiteration needed for those who tested positive, it would be very valuable information

 

[csodjd]

What is the basis for the part of your statement, "by most measures they should not"?

Based on reporting, Hawaii's community spread has been within families and other groups of residents. Tourists aren't going to be attending Church services, or mingling in large groups in the way those that live in Hawaii are likely to. Tourists are not likely to attend "superspreader" events. Many of the rules/restrictions in place are specifically designed to bar people from gathering in the environments most likely to lead to community spread. If hotels and other tourist destinations do their job of enforcing mask rules and social distancing, the opportunity for a tourist to trigger spread is notably less than that of a resident.

 

[csodjd]

You expected around 3-5% to test positive. But anyway, since we know the tests are oversensitive, possibly none of the 5 that tested positive is actually shedding the virus. I wish they disclosed the number of reiteration needed for those who tested positive, it would be very valuable information

I didn't "expect," I used that as a likely worst-case scenario. I also consistently have said that those going to Hawaii are a lower-risk subset of the population and that the positivity rate in that subset is likely well below the "ordinary" rate. Nonetheless, in terms of calculating likely numbers or risk, I used the higher 3-5%.

 

[Kapolei]

The article states a couple of restaurants on Kauai are refusing to serve tourists in dining rooms:

“Saenz Ohana Breakfast in Princeville posted Friday that it would only allow visitors to order online and pick up and that only residents with local state IDs would be allowed to order, sit and eat.

“Visitors we are sorry for the inconvenience but we, as a island, are not ready for opening now,” the post said. “(Our) plan is to keep our area safe of travelers so the locals can have somewhere to feel safe eating not crowded by visitors that may or may not be COVID positive.”

2 Kauai restaurants ban tourists from dining rooms | Honolulu Star-Advertiser

Two restaurants on the north shore of Kauai have posted social media notices that they won’t be serving visitors, who arrive through the state’s pre-arrivals testing program, in their dining rooms.

www.staradvertiser.com

I hope this gets sorted out.

 

[csodjd]

This is a graph showing one of the key data points for tracking the impact of opening to tourists. As can be readily seen, so far (two weeks into it) there is no increase in case rates, and that's particularly notable given the skyrocketing case rate nationally (from a 7-day average of 40k/day to 80k/day in the past 30 days). Also, the infection rate has been a steady 1.8%, which is lower than it was before tourism had restarted.

Basically, Hawaii has been, so far, completely unaffected by either the "third wave" of infection gripping much of the US, or by opening to tourists.

Here is the positivity rate:

The other key data point is hospitalizations, because that is basically test-independent. It also is showing no signs at this point of any increase, and is instead steadily declining. Hawaii reports 8 COVID patients (out of 144 total) in an ICU presently.

State of Hawaii | Hawaii Emergency Management Agency

The Hawaii Emergency Management Agency COVID-19 Information Hub, in support of the Department of Health, has been established to share data with local, state, and federal partners and keep our community informed about the coronavirus (COVID-19).

hawaiicovid19.com

 

[PearlCity]

This is a graph showing one of the key data points for tracking the impact of opening to tourists. As can be readily seen, so far (two weeks into it) there is no increase in case rates, and that's particularly notable given the skyrocketing case rate nationally (from a 7-day average of 40k/day to 80k/day in the past 30 days). Also, the infection rate has been a steady 1.8%, which is lower than it was before tourism had restarted.

Basically, Hawaii has been, so far, completely unaffected by either the "third wave" of infection gripping much of the US, or by opening to tourists.

View attachment 28147

Here is the positivity rate:
View attachment 28149

The other key data point is hospitalizations, because that is basically test-independent. It also is showing no signs at this point of any increase, and is instead steadily declining. Hawaii reports 8 COVID patients (out of 144 total) in an ICU presently.

View attachment 28148

State of Hawaii | Hawaii Emergency Management Agency

The Hawaii Emergency Management Agency COVID-19 Information Hub, in support of the Department of Health, has been established to share data with local, state, and federal partners and keep our community informed about the coronavirus (COVID-19).

hawaiicovid19.com

I hope the trends continue. I really want my kids back in school. Right now distance learning is hard on them and me. There was a fear tourists would bring the virus back. I hope this trend can continue.

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[Tamaradarann]

Based on reporting, Hawaii's community spread has been within families and other groups of residents. Tourists aren't going to be attending Church services, or mingling in large groups in the way those that live in Hawaii are likely to. Tourists are not likely to attend "superspreader" events. Many of the rules/restrictions in place are specifically designed to bar people from gathering in the environments most likely to lead to community spread. If hotels and other tourist destinations do their job of enforcing mask rules and social distancing, the opportunity for a tourist to trigger spread is notably less than that of a resident.

You are probably right about that since the typical tourist activities that would generate large gatherings such as Luaus, Boat Trips, Island Tours etc. have not opened. Also some of the activities that we would attend are also not opened such as Concerts, Live Theatre, Movie Festivals, Street Festivals etc. are also not opened.

 

[csodjd]

You are probably right about that since the typical tourist activities that would generate large gatherings such as Luaus, Boat Trips, Island Tours etc. have not opened. Also some of the activities that we would attend are also not opened such as Concerts, Live Theatre, Movie Festivals, Street Festivals etc. are also not opened.

Exactly. And they are closed precisely to prevent community spread. Those things will come back when there's an effective vaccine.

 

[overthehill]

Governor Ige’s program which allows visitors to avoid the mandatory 14day quarantine finally took effect October 15th, the start date having been postponed twice.
Details can be found at www.travelhawaii. For those not familiar with the waiver program, you must have a Negative Covid test from a state approved provider (listed on their web site) within 72 hours of arrival in the Islands. Each person must set up their own account, providing information about dates, times, fights,lodging, phone numbers, etc.
Within 24 hours of arrival, you must go on line and answer health questions in order to receive a QR code which wil be checked upon arrival.
If going to the Big Island, you will have to go through another test (no cost) administered at the airport before you pick up your luggage. You will be given a test results form which car rental companies and your place of lodging will require be presented.
There are few tourists in Kona and none in Waikoloa. As of yesterday WIkoloa was dead with all timeshares and hotels closed. In Kona, the Wyndham Kona Hawaiian Resort is gradually opening, only 30 units occupied out of 148 the week of October 23rd. The resort plans on more arrivals beginning October 31st. Most other timeshares are closed.
Many long time restaurants are closed permanently while others are closed temporarily, offering take out and a few with limited indoor seating.
Masks are required in all building and whenever out in public near others. As on the mainland, many rude people aren’t wearing masks and don’t carry one. Please have one with you and put it on when around others. Thank you.
Tourist activities are shut down since there aren’t enough tourists to justify opening. Lots of people in tourist related services are laid off.
With all this, the locals are gracious and thrilled visitors are coming back, especially those visitors who respect Hawaiian customs.
Aloha

 

[Henry M.]

For those on Maui right now, what is the mask-wearing practice at the Ka'anapali resort beaches? Is everyone wearing a mask laying on their towel? 50%? Nobody?