Marriott points and internal exchange program - the latest info

[Latravel]

Geez. I've been saying this in a few posts. We should keep an open mind - you may really like the new program!

Love this quote from jerseyfinn:
"Life is not a static process. No surprise that MVC & Marriott do not hold still." and we shouldn't expect them to.

 

[BocaBum99]

Geez. I've been saying this in a few posts. We should keep an open mind - you may really like the new program!

Love this quote from jerseyfinn:
"Life is not a static process. No surprise that MVC & Marriott do not hold still." and we shouldn't expect them to.

It will be fun to see what they actually do. We will see how good the product manager is. It won't be hard to assess.

 

[gmarine]

So, how much are you willing to pay? I realize without knowing the exact program details its hard to say, but in general, how many of us would pay 2 or 3 thousand dollars for access to a points program? I cant see myself spending more than a couple hundred $$. Anything more than that and I would probably stay with II and/or look for owner trades.

 

[Bill4728]

So, how much are you willing to pay? I realize without knowing the exact program details its hard to say, but in general, how many of us would pay 2 or 3 thousand dollars for access to a points program? I cant see myself spending more than a couple hundred $$. Anything more than that and I would probably stay with II and/or look for owner trades.

If more than $1000, I will not join. Hopefully they charge >$2000 and a lot a people will not join, then we'll still have critical mass in II.

 

[PerryM]

Wanted, dead or alive

So, how much are you willing to pay? I realize without knowing the exact program details its hard to say, but in general, how many of us would pay 2 or 3 thousand dollars for access to a points program? I cant see myself spending more than a couple hundred $$. Anything more than that and I would probably stay with II and/or look for owner trades.

This is a great question - one that Marriott is mulling over right now.

The amount can't be financed, like a timeshare for 10 years, so we really are talking about credit card charges.

I'm guessing that 10% of the current sales price is something that feels right to Marriott. To make it more palatable Marriott may offer 4 payments spread over the year to be charged to the credit card. Interest would be 10% but of the total to be added to each payment.

10% is what you originally charged on your credit card to buy/hold the timeshare and they will bring up this fact.

Marriott's only costs here are the programming fees, training fees, and sales and marketing.

I'm guessing but a bounty of 10% goes to the salesreps. This will have them phoning every Marriott owner since you have a business relationship with them so they are exempt from Federal Do Not Call lists.

Expect the salesreps to sell this membership just like they did with the timeshare - a credit card number is asked for over the phone and 25%, the first payment, will get you on the salesreps list to place the order the morning sales start.

If you want pre-construction pricing this is how it will be done.

This is going to be a mad dash, panic feeling, event pushed by thousands of Marriott salesreps. This will make a feeding frenzy shark attack seem mild.

Marriott's only problem will be processing the memberships fast enough. Marriott might even add a new page to the MVCI website and allow owners to just sign up there after their salesrep gives them a special code which identifies him to the system.

 

[hotcoffee]

As to the rest of it. I gotta be honest and say that there's so much speculation ( some of it is sounds more like Puritan heresay ) floating around on this thread that I really don't see anything useful flowing from it. Bottom line is that if you're an MVC owner, you've got to be interested in any talk of internal trades or a points system. But in truth, we have nothing at all to go on except that DaveM asserts that Marriott is seriously considering something -- and that's good enough for me at this moment.

. . . . .

Now back to speculating about how many angels fit on the head of a pin :zzz:

Barry

It amazes me the number of posts and assumptions (guesses) being made about a program that doesn't exist. Sure it might be fun to talk about as far as potential but, those of you that are worried really shouldn't be concerned at this point. Nothing said in the almost 400 posts in this thread could be considered anywhere close to acurate. It's ALL a guessing game.

$2,000 to join? That's just a figure pulled out of the air. The "source" said it would be low enough that the majority would join. To me that means $500 or less. At $200 I'd jump on the band wagon. At $500 I'd still have to think about it. At $2,000 I'm betting a lot of owners will be more than happy to keep their ownership as it is.

I think there is a lot of reason to be concerned that Marriott does not like resale owners very much. It was obvious to me at last year's sales presentation. Others have mentioned the same thing. Both DaveM's post from last year, and his most recent mentioned resale owners in one way or another. It is clear that there is a lot of talking going on behind closed doors at Marriott on how to integrate resale owners into the new trading system or whether to exclude them altogether. It is, however, certainly possible that Marriott will decide not to punish future resale buyers, current resale owners, and future sellers of any type. High resale values are good for everyone (except buyers, or course), including Marriott. Happy customers make repeat customers. Many businesses are more concerned about short term profits rather than making loyal customers.

I must be different than must timeshare owners, based upon some of the posts here. I did not buy into timesharing with the mindset that I would own my timeshare for the rest of my life. I assumed that I would eventually sell it when making use of was no longer practical. So, I'm a little concerned. I don't have to sell for as much as I paid, but I would like to get something reasonable for it when I do sell.

We will see how the new system is implemented. If it damages my ownership and makes it more difficult for me to sell, I will look for the best alternative to get out, and bolt.

 

[hotcoffee]

. . . IF Marriott was to change the program going forward, unless some political or other force as you suggest decided to intervene, I don't think buyers could cry foul if they were aware of the limitations at the time of their purchase.

I think the only basis for outside intervention would be the negative impact such restrictions would have on the inherent value of the property (resale value) but, since the documents all specify that the units are not investment property, that may insulate Marriott from any such claims.

Actually, the political realm could possibly be a great place to air complaints if Marriott were to implement an unfair system. It does not require any legal analysis of documents. Marriott could even be in the right, but still be forced to back off some of its actions. No hotel chain wants to be publicly viewed in a bad light, or seen on the evening news being chastised for being anti-consumer. Finding a sufficiently powerful political figure who is interested might not be so easy, but it could be worth a try if it were to come to that.

 

[csalter2]

Must Be Retirees

You folks must be retirees to have all of this time to talk about absolutely nothing. I actually went to Lakeshore Reserve today and spoke with a sales rep. He did say that there would be a points system and he said there would be an internal trading system. However, he did not know any specifics because they are still working on it.

Over 400 posts on what? Absolutely nothing. I did get one thing from the discussion. That is that Marriott is trying to retain value of the timeshare so that those who bought from the developer would not feel that their buying their timeshare for $25,000 to $50,000 would not lose it all the next day as a resale buyer purchased it for $5000. That's fine with me to help protect the value. That helps everyone by protecting the value of the product.

I love going to my Marriott property and others. I was at Shadow Ridge earlier this month and am now here at Grand Vista. I feel that Marriott has a good product. I don't mind paying for a good product. If Marriott, goes similar to DRI with its points, I will be mad at myself for purchasing as many points as I did with DRI because their resorts don't have the same quality as Marriott resorts but have maintenance fees in the same ball park. I must say that DRI does have timeshares in more locations than Marriott which is appealing.

Nevertheless, I too think that everyone should calm down and wait for the word to come down so that it can be evaluated and we can all speak from a position of knowledge. Only then can we analyze the changes and make intelligent suggestions and decisions that would best suit our needs.

I am not worried about what Marriott does. I know they want to make money and I want great vacations. I am looking forward to when I retire in about 15 years and can stay in my resorts hang out and have fun and not speculate about what coulda', mighta', or maybe'll happen.

 

[BocaBum99]

Nevertheless, I too think that everyone should calm down and wait for the word to come down so that it can be evaluated and we can all speak from a position of knowledge. Only then can we analyze the changes and make intelligent suggestions and decisions that would best suit our needs.

I am personally excited about how this program will develop and unfold. As for deciding to wait for more information before posting any longer, I think other people can make their own decision on whether or not that is good advice. I don't know about you, but I am speaking from a position of knowledge.

 

[PerryM]

10...9...8...7...

You folks must be retirees to have all of this time to talk about absolutely nothing. I actually went to Lakeshore Reserve today and spoke with a sales rep. He did say that there would be a points system and he said there would be an internal trading system. However, he did not know any specifics because they are still working on it.

Over 400 posts on what? Absolutely nothing. I did get one thing from the discussion. That is that Marriott is trying to retain value of the timeshare so that those who bought from the developer would not feel that their buying their timeshare for $25,000 to $50,000 would not lose it all the next day as a resale buyer purchased it for $5000. That's fine with me to help protect the value. That helps everyone by protecting the value of the product.

I love going to my Marriott property and others. I was at Shadow Ridge earlier this month and am now here at Grand Vista. I feel that Marriott has a good product. I don't mind paying for a good product. If Marriott, goes similar to DRI with its points, I will be mad at myself for purchasing as many points as I did with DRI because their resorts don't have the same quality as Marriott resorts but have maintenance fees in the same ball park. I must say that DRI does have timeshares in more locations than Marriott which is appealing.

Nevertheless, I too think that everyone should calm down and wait for the word to come down so that it can be evaluated and we can all speak from a position of knowledge. Only then can we analyze the changes and make intelligent suggestions and decisions that would best suit our needs.

I am not worried about what Marriott does. I know they want to make money and I want great vacations. I am looking forward to when I retire in about 15 years and can stay in my resorts hang out and have fun and not speculate about what coulda', mighta', or maybe'll happen.

I make my living on the internet so I can easily chat on many chat rooms during the day - just like I would at a water-cooler.

Marriott is the one that is causing all of this - they should have kept their big mouth shut but they don't and this rumor is designed to scare owners.

I find it reprehensible and see Marriott shrinking from its once great role as a leader in this field - they are now no better than Wyndham.

Beyond that I believe the owners can influence Marriott if they wanted to - a more owner friendly version could result.

But knowing human nature this won't happen and I'd bet that my predictions will come true; close enough for timeshare work. Time will tell - in fact we should install a count down clock and see.

 

[BocaBum99]

I make my living on the internet so I can easily chat on many chat rooms during the day - just like I would at a water-cooler.

Marriott is the one that is causing all of this - they should have kept their big mouth shut but they don't and this rumor is designed to scare owners.

I find it reprehensible and see Marriott shrinking from its once great role as a leader in this field - they are now no better than Wyndham.

Beyond that I believe the owners can influence Marriott if they wanted to - a more owner friendly version could result.

But knowing human nature this won't happen and I'd bet that my predictions will come true; close enough for timeshare work.

Perry, I'd say this is where we diverge a bit. I think Marriott will launch a good program. It will cost all owners in a one time loss of value of their ownerships. That is true. But, because there are so many legitimate ways for Marriott to make money aside from stealing value from owners, I think Marriott will lean in that direction rather than the most evil direction possible. There are at least 3 other companies that I would have a different opinion about if they were doing the same thing.

 

[dougp26364]

There is nothing wrong with speculation about a future program that is very likely to be implemented. It's only a problem if it brings worry to the person doing the speculating.

People who make the most money in business are those who can successfully anticipate what happens in the market. With a little bit of thought and understanding about what motivates businesses and people in business, it's not hard to get in the ball park. A clear understanding of the likely outcomes can help a saavy person get into a good position to capitalize on programs as they reveal themselves.

When this thread started, I was thinking very negatively about the possibility that Marriott would charge a large fee for resale owners to get into the program. Now that I have thought through it like a Marriott product manager would, I have decided that it may not be as bad as I originally anticipated and in fact, it could be something that can be very good for a saavy buyer.

All timeshare systems have loopholes which we as tuggers exploit. It enables us to do great trade ups in II and RCI by knowing which traders are the cheapest to buy and maintain that will get us the biggest exchange possible. It's clear to me that Marriott's system will also have such features for us to exploit. The question is what will those features be and how much will it cost to get in. You have a year to get your portfolio ready to anticipate some type of grandfathering. If it happens, great. If not, it was a good bet.

Regarding $2000. That is a guess. We have seen a $5000 price point in Asia. I know that $2000 would be easy to sell if let it go at that price with the features I mentioned earlier. My guess is the retail price will be set somewhere between $2000-5000. And, there will be waiving of most of it for developer purchases and a street price for everyone else. This is a guess. But, it's not an uninformed guess. For instance, I am very confident that it won't be $10,000.

In addition, doing scenario planning can help remove fear if you use it to help understand potential outcomes and plan appropriately for each major scenario that is likely to occur. Once a person has a chance to think through the scenarios and they have a plan of attack for each of the possible scenarios, it gives a person tremendous confidence about their abiltiy to navigate an ambiguous future state.

So, speculating can be very healthy if used in this way.

Nothing wrong unless you get carried away and start making things up. Right now, no one knows what Marriott is going to come out with. All we know is that there has been speculation that they will come out with something, DaveM has a contact that states it will be within the next year BUT, has qualified that statement by saying delays could happen (gee, it's been two years already) and that it will be made VERY AFFORDABLE to all current owners who bought direct from Marriott and cost more from those who bought resale. Somwhere along the line we got the information that there are ~ 700,000 Marriott owners, the majority of which have bought directly from Marriott.

Otherwise, everyone is getting all worked up over nothing. For all we know, Marriott may take a good look at what they're planning and scrap it all together. They may go forward with it and it may look like HGVC's plan where all platinum 2 bedroom weeks are 7,000 points unless they have a special view, and then they may be 9,600 because of the view (you can pay for the view or penthouse with HGVC by spending/buying more points). OR, they could go with something like Wyndham where each new resort cost more points to reserve than older resorts or, they could do something like DRI where each resort has a different point value and many of the resorts are affilates for internal exchange purposes. OR it could be something entirely different.

You could say they'll charge a joiner fee like DRI of $2,995, or like HGVC does with it's affiliates of $599 or nothing like Wyndham. You could even venture to guess they'll offer a trust program like DRI or Bluegreen.

However, everything is pure speculation. To put price tags, bottom lines and financial statements into is actually somewhat comical.

 

[PerryM]

Perry, I'd say this is where we diverge a bit. I think Marriott will launch a good program. It will cost all owners in a one time loss of value of their ownerships. That is true. But, because there are so many legitimate ways for Marriott to make money aside from stealing value from owners, I think Marriott will lean in that direction rather than the most evil direction possible. There are at least 3 other companies that I would have a different opinion about if they were doing the same thing.

I was just in the II system a week ago and the bug that was there 3 years ago is still there. Certainly I would hope that Marriott introduces a first rate system that results in a great exchanges for Marriott owners.

The impact will be easy to measure - the resale values one month before introduction and one month after. That will be the real verdict of how this new system is received by the owners.

P.S.
This new system should have the ability to book airline reservations, car reservations, and activities while in the reservation system. There are a lot of other ways for Marriott to make a buck or two.

Pre-stocking the refrigerator can now be a great service to charge for - have the milk, cereal, eggs, and OJ in the fridge to get you going.

 

[BocaBum99]

However, everything is pure speculation. To put price tags, bottom lines and financial statements into is actually somewhat comical.

You clearly don't make a living in business or new product development. If you did, you wouldn't characterize these analyses as "comical." I find it tragic that the average American can't do this type of basic analysis. If they did, they would make much better decisions in life. In fact, if all Americans did it, there wouldn't be a timesharing market since any real financial rigor shows that timeshares bought from the developer don't make financial sense. After my first developer purchase, when I did this analysis and research, it led me to the conclusion that I should cancel my developer purchase. Is that comical to you, too? Did you make a developer purchase? When, if ever, did you decide it was an optimal or suboptimal decision?

People earn a living doing this type of analysis. I spent a 20 year career doing it using this exact methodology to determine quickly if a project was even worth spending any corporate resources developing. You'll be surprised at how many ideas employees come up with to make money that they just know the company must do. Then, when the simplest of business cases show those ideas to be a complete waste of time.

Before you even start a project, you need to see if its potentially big enough to have an impact. Then, and only then, do you begin drafting specs on what it should do and fine tuning your assumptions.

If I had access to Marriott's internal data, I could come up with a solid business case for this project in a couple of weeks. The hard work is in pulling together the details product specs and operational processes required to launch the new program will using market and customer research to validate your assumptions.

 

[BocaBum99]

I was just in the II system a week ago and the bug that was there 3 years ago is still there. Certainly I would hope that Marriott introduces a first rate system that results in a great exchanges for Marriott owners.

The impact will be easy to measure - the resale values one month before introduction and one month after. That will be the real verdict of how this new system is received by the owners.

P.S.
This new system should have the ability to book airline reservations, car reservations, and activities while in the reservation system. There are a lot of other ways for Marriott to make a buck or two.

Pre-stocking the refrigerator can now be a great service to charge for - have the milk, cereal, eggs, and OJ in the fridge to get you going.

I would say it slightly differently. I would say that the resale cost of the program is the price that all owners pay for this program since their ownerships will go down by about that much. I just hope Marriott creates a program that is worth that much or more.

It would be worth $2000 to me if the program had bonus time and a rationale point system based on supply/demand, unit size, season and view class.

I guess that Marriott will charge a maximum amount of $5000 with a likely amount of $3500 like you predict. I just need to make sure I buy my next platinum Marriott at $3000-5000 below the average resale price.

 

[dougp26364]

You clearly don't make a living in business or new product development. If you did, you wouldn't characterize these discussions as "comical."

People earn a living doing this type of analysis. I spent a 20 year career doing it using this exact methodology to determine quickly if a project was even worth spending any corporate resources developing. You'll be surprised at how many ideas employees come up with to make money that they just know the company must do. Then, when the simplest of business cases show those ideas to be a complete waste of time.

Before you even start a project, you need to see if its potentially big enough to have an impact. Then, and only then, do you begin drafting specs on what it should do and fine tuning your assumptions.

If I had access to Marriott's internal data, I could come up with a solid business case for this project in a couple of weeks. The hard work is in pulling together the details product specs and operational processes required to launch the new program will using market and customer research to validate your assumptions.

There was a business philosphy I learned a long time ago. People worry all the time. The problem with this is, 90% of what they worry about never happens and, the 10% that does happen, they have no control over. So there is no need to worry. In this case, nothing has happened except for speculation. Over 400 posts about phantom programs borders on propoganda and that's not even worth the bandwidth it takes to publish.

All we know is, Marriott has rumored this phantom program to be in the works for over 2 years now. Salesmen have attempted to use this rumor to push developer sales rather than buying cheaper resale units. Marriott is likely to come out with some new program (programs change all the time, this is no big leap) but, there have been no announcements, no plans, no structure, nothing to go by.

There was solid information released that DRI would buy Bluegreen. It never happened. IMHO, we have less solid information to discuss on this topic and the likelyhood that something will happen is less than DRI's proposed purchase of Bluegreen.

Once something is announced, then speculation is off the table and a rational discussion can proceed. Until then we're just spreading rumors that do no one any good.

Sure speculators earn a living by trying to GUESS what the market is going to do. I can try to guess whether it will rain or not by looking at the sky. Sometimes I'm right, most times I'm wrong. Speculation is one of the riskest ways to try to turn a profit there is in business. When you're right, the rewards can be very nice but, it often takes a little inside knowledge to be correct a majority of the time.

 

[BocaBum99]

There was a business philosphy I learned a long time ago. People worry all the time. The problem with this is, 90% of what they worry about never happens and, the 10% that does happen, they have no control over. So there is no need to worry. In this case, nothing has happened except for speculation. Over 400 posts about phantom programs borders on propoganda and that's not even worth the bandwidth it takes to publish.

All we know is, Marriott has rumored this phantom program to be in the works for over 2 years now. Salesmen have attempted to use this rumor to push developer sales rather than buying cheaper resale units. Marriott is likely to come out with some new program (programs change all the time, this is no big leap) but, there have been no announcements, no plans, no structure, nothing to go by.

There was solid information released that DRI would buy Bluegreen. It never happened. IMHO, we have less solid information to discuss on this topic and the likelyhood that something will happen is less than DRI's proposed purchase of Bluegreen.

Once something is announced, then speculation is off the table and a rational discussion can proceed. Until then we're just spreading rumors that do no one any good.

Sure speculators earn a living by trying to GUESS what the market is going to do. I can try to guess whether it will rain or not by looking at the sky. Sometimes I'm right, most times I'm wrong. Speculation is one of the riskest ways to try to turn a profit there is in business. When you're right, the rewards can be very nice but, it often takes a little inside knowledge to be correct a majority of the time.

I agree that if speculation turns into excessive worry that you can't do anything about, then its very bad.

Market analysis that is predicting likely outcomes is extremely valuable. If nothing else, it provides you with insight into potential options that if they occur, you can pounce on. What I've tried to do is provide people with some insight they probably didn't have before so that if Marriott does something that surprises them, it could explain why.

Probably most importantly, it provide you with a decision framework. If Marriott does A, I do B. If Marriott does C, I do D. That is very helpful and removes the paralysis that an overwhelming new program can place on someone who waits until a program is ready before figuring out what it can be. Part of the reason there are so many posts on this thread is that people are trying to figure out how this program might effect them. It wouldn't have over 400 posts if it weren't important.

Knowing the nature of the beast will help you understand if the monster is likely to be huge or small. I think it is likely to cost all of us a few thousand dollars whether we opt in or opt out. Whether it will be good or bad or whether or not Marriott cares about owners will be very obvious to me when I see the program details. So far, I believe they are an owner friendly company.

 

[IuLiKa]

I also can't believe the amount of talk that is going on on this topic and the speculations. I do not even have the time to read all the posts. I read the first and the last page. gee some of us have a lot of time on their hands.

 

[m61376]

I would say it slightly differently. I would say that the resale cost of the program is the price that all owners pay for this program since their ownerships will go down by about that much. I just hope Marriott creates a program that is worth that much or more.

It would be worth $2000 to me if the program had bonus time and a rationale point system based on supply/demand, unit size, season and view class.

I guess that Marriott will charge a maximum amount of $5000 with a likely amount of $3500 like you predict. I just need to make sure I buy my next platinum Marriott at $3000-5000 below the average resale price.

Of course, that's assuming that the price tag is applicable to current or future resale weeks at all. If they exclude future resale weeks completely then it is anybody's guess as to how badly that will impact the value, but I would expect them to plummet if Marriott's internal trading system attracts most owners.

If they only allow current resale buyers to join and exclude future resale buyers, then everyone's value suffers, but as you've indicated, that would mean the next year is a good time to buy.

 

[FlyerBobcat]

I also can't believe the amount of talk that is going on on this topic and the speculations. I do not even have the time to read all the posts. I read the first and the last page. gee some of us have a lot of time on their hands.

One of the reasons that makes TUG so good..... Lots of input and lots of diverse opinions....

 

[dougp26364]

I agree that if speculation turns into excessive worry that you can't do anything about, then its very bad.

Market analysis that is predicting likely outcomes is extremely valuable. If nothing else, it provides you with insight into potential options that if they occur, you can pounce on. What I've tried to do is provide people with some insight they probably didn't have before so that if Marriott does something that surprises them, it could explain why.

Probably most importantly, it provide you with a decision framework. If Marriott does A, I do B. If Marriott does C, I do D. That is very helpful and removes the paralysis that an overwhelming new program can place on someone who waits until a program is ready before figuring out what it can be. Part of the reason there are so many posts on this thread is that people are trying to figure out how this program might effect them. It wouldn't have over 400 posts if it weren't important.

Knowing the nature of the beast will help you understand if the monster is likely to be huge or small. I think it is likely to cost all of us a few thousand dollars whether we opt in or opt out. Whether it will be good or bad or whether or not Marriott cares about owners will be very obvious to me when I see the program details. So far, I believe they are an owner friendly company.

Analysis needs to be based on more fact and less fiction. Right now, the opposite is true. Analysis is based almost 100% on shadows seen through the eyes of those worried about how this will affect their ownership.

The only facts we have are that Marriott salesmen have been pushing this rumor for at least two years. We have DaveM's word that he has an inside source that has been accurate when passing along information. But even an inside source can release information before it becomes fact, leaving everyone to run wild with rumors.

There are no facts indicating what Marriott will or won't do. There are no indicators to point us solidly in any direction. With rumors running rampent, the only thing one can do is sit tight and see how this plays out. If you already own, I wouldn't be concerned about it until they announce something solid. By solid I don't mean some unnamed source giving out vague information. If you don't own, now may not be the time to buy with all these rumors running around. It might be best to let the rumors settle and see what happens.

Past those two things, this is mostly just entertainment. Speculating about what might and might not be the future for Marriott internal trading can be nothing more than entertainment at this point. There is nothing solid to go on to provide for realistic speculation. Speculation based on non-existant facts won't remove paralysis. It will create it instead. You can't figure out how this non-existant program will affect you until you know the rules of the non-existant program first. Right now, we don't know squat past Marriott MIGHT make a change somewhere in the future.

 

[BocaBum99]

Of course, that's assuming that the price tag is applicable to current or future resale weeks at all. If they exclude future resale weeks completely then it is anybody's guess as to how badly that will impact the value, but I would expect them to plummet if Marriott's internal trading system attracts most owners.

If they only allow current resale buyers to join and exclude future resale buyers, then everyone's value suffers, but as you've indicated, that would mean the next year is a good time to buy.

Dave mentioned that there would be a fee for resale owners to buy in which would be higher than those who buy from the developer. This makes sense from Marriott's point of view. My claim is that resale prices will go down by that much since the new owner will have to pay that fee to get back into the program. That's worst case. Because some may just not care about the program and opt out as long as Marriott doesn't much with too much with the current program while the other one is operating.

 

[BocaBum99]

Analysis needs to be based on more fact and less fiction. Right now, the opposite is true. Analysis is based almost 100% on shadows seen through the eyes of those worried about how this will affect their ownership.

The only facts we have are that Marriott salesmen have been pushing this rumor for at least two years. We have DaveM's word that he has an inside source that has been accurate when passing along information. But even an inside source can release information before it becomes fact, leaving everyone to run wild with rumors.

There are no facts indicating what Marriott will or won't do. There are no indicators to point us solidly in any direction. With rumors running rampent, the only thing one can do is sit tight and see how this plays out. If you already own, I wouldn't be concerned about it until they announce something solid. By solid I don't mean some unnamed source giving out vague information. If you don't own, now may not be the time to buy with all these rumors running around. It might be best to let the rumors settle and see what happens.

Past those two things, this is mostly just entertainment. Speculating about what might and might not be the future for Marriott internal trading can be nothing more than entertainment at this point. There is nothing solid to go on to provide for realistic speculation. Speculation based on non-existant facts won't remove paralysis. It will create it instead. You can't figure out how this non-existant program will affect you until you know the rules of the non-existant program first. Right now, we don't know squat past Marriott MIGHT make a change somewhere in the future.

There are facts that you haven't mentioned that play into the picture as well. There are competitive products. We can look at them, see how they have constructed their products. Evaluate what has been successful for them and make an educated guess at what Marriott would put in theirs. Marriott surely has done a detailed competitive analysis. This gives you insight.

Also, there are price points in the market that have showed success and others that have failed. That puts constraints on the problem. Based on my personal experience in the market, I can tell you without a doubt that programs such as bonus time and converting non-TS weeks into the program have been successful. And, that Marriott would be very wise to put them in. Those are facts that give Marriott the benefit of the doubt.

Also, having seen and owned lots of points systems, they will have differential values by units, seasons, probably view class and resort. As someone mentioned earlier, you could make a high level guess by using the assignments that they gave for Marriott rewards. Those are facts.

I can pretty much guarantee you that if I find out that someone here is going to build a house that I can guess a lot of the elements they will put into it. I can guess there will be a master bedroom, a kitchen, living room, dining room, a few extra bedrooms and maybe even a rec room or 2-3 car garage. Based on their income and the size of houses in their neighborhood and the number of kids they have, I can estimate the size house they will buy. I can get in the ball park on a lot of these things. Using your strategy, you can't know what they are going to build until you see it for yourself. I claim you can know a lot about what is likely to happen before it happens and that insight can be very useful.

If you don't find it useful, that's fine. But, don't make generalizations that just because you don't see any benefit in the analysis that others don't either.

 

[fskins]

Dave mentioned that there would be a fee for resale owners to buy in which would be higher than those who buy from the developer. This makes sense from Marriott's point of view. My claim is that resale prices will go down by that much since the new owner will have to pay that fee to get back into the program. That's worst case. Because some may just not care about the program and opt out as long as Marriott doesn't much with too much with the current program while the other one is operating.

I also haven't read all the posts so this may have been covered, whats in the past is History. If I'm Marriott, why not Grandfather everyone in to set the std, make the new trading sytem inclusive of the price for purchasing a new timeshare direct. Now everyone is included. Then charge all future resales to join (which they must because everyone is trading in the system), but also include the option to trade points. If fact, make the buy in substatial. Then, resale values get closer to direct (resale cost plus sign up fee), because people would not be shying away from them. They would be treated like Marriot direct buyers. For every resale, Marriott could take a large "vig" for every purchase without doing a thing, no overhead on resales, just cash. Resales in my opinion stay high in value, and Marriott would not discourage the resale market as much because they are getting a commision for every resale forever. Everyone's happy

 

[RandR]

I also haven't read all the posts so this may have been covered, whats in the past is History. If I'm Marriott, why not Grandfather everyone in to set the std, make the new trading sytem inclusive of the price for purchasing a new timeshare direct. Now everyone is included. Then charge all future resales to join (which they must because everyone is trading in the system), but also include the option to trade points. If fact, make the buy in substatial. Then, resale values get closer to direct (resale cost plus sign up fee), because people would not be shying away from them. They would be treated like Marriot direct buyers. For every resale, Marriott could take a large "vig" for every purchase without doing a thing, no overhead on resales, just cash. Resales in my opinion stay high in value, and Marriott would not discourage the resale market as much because they are getting a commision for every resale forever. Everyone's happy

Or resale values would crash as people would just buy direct if the cost of a resale plus initiation fee was close to buying direct. I'm sure there will be incentives to buy direct as there usually are.