It's time to pick up some Platinum weeks for cheap

[PerryM]

Waaaaa

BocaBum99 is a reseller of timeshares and some of my predictions/actions impact his bottom line. He has a business to protect – this I understand. With timeshare sales grinding to a halt I guess its time to lash out at a straw dog.

My recommendation is still to NOT BUY TIMESHARES in the foreseeable future – developer nor resale.

I’m sorry if you resellers here are impacted by that. Quite frankly my heart doesn’t bleed for you folks.

BB was shut down in another thread for this same exact bashing – I plan to just go on vacation and enjoy our timeshares in the next 2 weeks.

Just remember folks that if you step on some folks toes they will cry.

 

[thinze3]

How about this?

Today we concentrate on finding the very best deal for the money within the Marriott system. I know we all have our own oppinions, but we don't have to mention other Tuggers by name to do this.

Which Marriott resorts offer red, platinum, or platinum plus weeks that give you the most bang for the buck in today's market.


Things to condsider:

today's price
history of stable MF's and lack of high assessments
quality of resort and amenities
quality of surrounding areas and amenities
tradeability with II
rental rates
lock-off ability
accommodation certificates
driveability or cheap airfare


IMHO
A perfect platinum unit would be between $5-10K
MF's would be no more than $1000-1100
rental from the lock-off would be $1000
1BR deposit would get an AC from II each year
1BR deposit would trade for a 2BR at just about any other Marriott
Pool bar/restaurant (unless ski resort)


My current vote is Desert Springs Villas I


Terry

 

[ondeadlin]

Terry,

Two potential problems I see with your plan/formula are that, A) All current trends indicate today's price will be higher than tomorrow's price; and B) All current trends indicate historical maintenance fees may not be any indication of future maintenance fees as people walk away from timeshares much the way they're walking away from homes.

I'll acknowledge that there is a scenario where the economy bounces back quicker than expected, Marriott reintroduces ROFR at previous levels, and timeshare prices rise a bit (although I don't think resales are ever going back to previous levels).

I just hope people realize there's also a scenario where - as we speak - thousands of people are walking away from their timeshares, and we won't see the effects of that until 2009 fees are not paid, and then 2010 fees explode a year from now. And if that happens, there will be even more walk-aways, fueling an even harder downward trend.

Even if reality lies in the middle, that's very bad news for current owners, and will drive resale prices even lower.

 

[thinze3]

...I plan to just go on vacation and enjoy our timeshares in the next 2 weeks...

Perry,
FWIW, I have enjoyed reading your posts here on Tug since the day I arrived. Have a Great Vacation and enjoy the Holidays!

Terry

 

[thinze3]

Terry,

Two potential problems I see with your plan/formula are that, A) All current trends indicate today's price will be higher than tomorrow's price; and B) All current trends indicate historical maintenance fees may not be any indication of future maintenance fees as people walk away from timeshares much the way they're walking away from homes.

I'll acknowledge that there is a scenario where the economy bounces back quicker than expected, Marriott reintroduces ROFR at previous levels, and timeshare prices rise a bit (although I don't think resales are ever going back to previous levels).

I just hope people realize there's also a scenario where - as we speak - thousands of people are walking away from their timeshares, and we won't see the effects of that until 2009 fees are not paid, and then 2010 fees explode a year from now. And if that happens, there will be even more walk-aways, fueling an even harder downward trend.

Even if reality lies in the middle, that's very bad news for current owners, and will drive resale prices even lower.

So, which resort do you recommend?

 

[PerryM]

Perry,
FWIW, I have enjoyed reading your posts here on Tug since the day I arrived. Have a Great Vacation and enjoy the Holidays!

Terry

Thanks, this will probably be my last snowboarding trip - 61 years old and my son graduates from college and will get a job which won't let him vacation during the holidays probably.

I will miss Park City...
P.S.
Timeshares made our 10+ years of snowboarding a fantastic adventure for my son and I. Thanks timeshares.

 

[PerryM]

Not there yet

Terry,

Two potential problems I see with your plan/formula are that, A) All current trends indicate today's price will be higher than tomorrow's price; and B) All current trends indicate historical maintenance fees may not be any indication of future maintenance fees as people walk away from timeshares much the way they're walking away from homes.

I'll acknowledge that there is a scenario where the economy bounces back quicker than expected, Marriott reintroduces ROFR at previous levels, and timeshare prices rise a bit (although I don't think resales are ever going back to previous levels).

I just hope people realize there's also a scenario where - as we speak - thousands of people are walking away from their timeshares, and we won't see the effects of that until 2009 fees are not paid, and then 2010 fees explode a year from now. And if that happens, there will be even more walk-aways, fueling an even harder downward trend.

Even if reality lies in the middle, that's very bad news for current owners, and will drive resale prices even lower.

Yesterday Cramer forecasted the bottom of the real estate debacle to occur in mid 2009 – another real estate expert forecasted that we are but 1/2 way thru this mess with turn around in the last part of 2009.

Why buy when lots of well respected forecasters say we haven’t hit bottom yet? Buying low requires a low to be already established.

P.S.
The way cycles works is that the panic sets in right at the bottom (dah) and prices accelerate the most downward there . Wait for it folks...

Probably an excellent timing signal will be when Marriott starts to exercise their ROFR again. They understand their market far better than any of us do.

So you have an excellent timing indicator right here - wait for folks to report a substantial usage of the ROFR by Marriott. Who could ask for more? The general public won't know of this and still hold firesales of their timeshares. Marriott can only absorb so many units and they will pass on the ROFR again until they sell them.

 

[PerryM]

oops......

 

[thinze3]

Let's assume someone gave you $10K to spend, but you HAD to buy a Marriott timeshare within a month, and you HAD to keep it for five years.

Which resort would you pick.

Terry

 

[PerryM]

Let's assume someone gave you $10K to spend, but you HAD to buy a Marriott timeshare within a month, and you HAD to keep it for five years.

Which resort would you pick.

Terry

I for one would be forced to buy a Bronze SummitWatch for $1,500 from Marriott which includes the closing costs – I don’t know if they still do this though. we paid $5k for our Gold SW 3+ years ago and maybe you could get a Gold for the $1,500 - I don't know.

The $8,500 I’d put in a bank and use to make the $1k MFs for 5 years and to pay the fee to lock-off the unit and make 2 deposits into RCI/II and exchange back to the Maui Ocean Club.

We have done the above for 3+ years now and will be back for President’s week and the next week in MOC in 2009 – we do own a Gold SW but Bronze should do the same. We have spent 2 Christmas weeks in MountainSide and Summit Watch doing the same exact thing.

If you believe the rumors of a Point system then this approach will be moot - but many folks believe in Santa too.

That’s the most bang for the buck I can think of in the Marriott system.

 

[ondeadlin]

Just to make you happy: I'd buy two gold weeks at Newport.

The MF are reasonable, the location is outstanding (not dependent on air travel like Hawaii), and I think you could rent for well above MF if you selected your weeks carefully.

 

[thinze3]

That Timber Lodge that sold for $5K and change yesterday sure looked nice. I called II and was told that every week Jan. thru Sept. had been offered AC's for '08 & '09. Forgot to ask if 1BR qualified.

Marriott calls it 'platinum summer' which is another way of selling a 'gold' week for a higher price. It appears that the summer lock-off rent would go for $800+ covering most of the MF's. It's probably a very good trader as well.

Terry

 

[m61376]

Terry-
I'd sure bet your MBT bargain would fit your parameters .
Although it misses on some of your points, wrt tradeability and desirability I would think Aruba SC Gold would warrant a mention. There have been some good buys on that around and although the MF's are a little higher, it trades really well, gets AC's from II, airfares from the East coast are similar to cross-country airfare, and there is a good rental market.

There may be a few other Gold weeks that are worthy of consideration as well.

 

[tarabell]

Perry:

I think you give really good timeshare advice, but you might want to learn a little more about how the fed operates

Looking at past cycles of up and down is helpful but the key question is “What’s different now then back then?”

We have an out of control federal government spending trillions of dollars like it was Monopoly money – the FED has spent 2 trillion dollars and they won’t even tell us where the money went. That’s about $7,000 of additional debt for each man, woman, and child in America. With interest and the inefficient way government collects taxes that will easily be $14,000 for each American to pay back. And for what?

Our government, both parties are guilty of this, has bankrupted us – wait until Social Security all of a sudden becomes a problem “out of the blue”. That monster has been kept in the closet for 60 years and it grows each day.

My forecast for the USA is so gloomy that I can’t even write out scenarios as to what will happen to us. I think the best analogy is the 3 car manufactures in Detroit – the more cars they make the worse their situation. The same here and I only see a depression as the outcome – an eye-popping depression to make the last one look like child’s splay.

So my advice to folks is to keep every penny you have and put it somewhere – I don’t even have a clue where that is – stocks, bonds, real estate, and gold will continue to free fall. It’s called deflation and we don’t know how to handle it.

Trying to flip timeshares makes sense if you are the broker both buying and selling them to you. And that’s what we have here – the advice to flip timeshares comes from a reseller – what a self serving piece of advice.

 

[James1975NY]

I thought this site was for experienced timeshare folks helping others maximize their ownership and vacation experience. When did this turn into a real estate advice column?

 

[m61376]

I thought this site was for experienced timeshare folks helping others maximize their ownership and vacation experience. When did this turn into a real estate advice column?

Well, in a sense discussing whether this is a prime opportunity to purchase additional weeks is relevant to maximizing ownership.

 

[stevens397]

Hard to believe how this thread has developed. Most of us who have been in this for years have gone through a number of phases. We start gung-ho and stupid! Then we get some experience, learn about resale, trading, renting, etc.

In the end, the earliest advice I learned was to buy where you're happy going most of the time. And pay a price you feel good about. I paid retail for Kierland early in the process - about $27,000. I ended up with 152,000 Starpoints when they were worth a fortune, and it got me over $7,000 in hotel stays. And four years of great vacations. No regrets.

I'm a dentist and I've taken lots of practice management courses. The best advice about my fees was that a fair fee is one that makes the dentist feel richly rewarded and that the patient pays with gratitude. Any person who can only be happy if they pay absolute rock-bottom will be unhappy most of the time. This past summer I purchased a 2BR Platinum resale at the Westin Kierland for $7,000 - a price that I felt was an unbelievable coup. Do I feel like a schmuck now? Now way. It is definitely worth $7,000 to me and I'll get lots of wonderful usage - it will be a bargain in my life. And I'm happy for those who recently bought it for less.

I think the best advice now is to not only buy where you like to go, but to buy what you can truly use. The rental market is in the crapper and who knows where it will go.

Finally, I wish the two protagonists would move on. Our country is in big trouble from a lot of people who were sure about everything. A little humility goes a long way.

 

[SpikeMauler]

Hard to believe how this thread has developed. Most of us who have been in this for years have gone through a number of phases. We start gung-ho and stupid! Then we get some experience, learn about resale, trading, renting, etc.

In the end, the earliest advice I learned was to buy where you're happy going most of the time. And pay a price you feel good about. I paid retail for Kierland early in the process - about $27,000. I ended up with 152,000 Starpoints when they were worth a fortune, and it got me over $7,000 in hotel stays. And four years of great vacations. No regrets.

I'm a dentist and I've taken lots of practice management courses. The best advice about my fees was that a fair fee is one that makes the dentist feel richly rewarded and that the patient pays with gratitude. Any person who can only be happy if they pay absolute rock-bottom will be unhappy most of the time. This past summer I purchased a 2BR Platinum resale at the Westin Kierland for $7,000 - a price that I felt was an unbelievable coup. Do I feel like a schmuck now? Now way. It is definitely worth $7,000 to me and I'll get lots of wonderful usage - it will be a bargain in my life. And I'm happy for those who recently bought it for less.

I think the best advice now is to not only buy where you like to go, but to buy what you can truly use. The rental market is in the crapper and who knows where it will go.

Finally, I wish the two protagonists would move on. Our country is in big trouble from a lot of people who were sure about everything. A little humility goes a long way.

Amen......

 

[thinze3]

... This past summer I purchased a 2BR Platinum resale at the Westin Kierland for $7,000 - a price that I felt was an unbelievable coup. Do I feel like a schmuck now? Now way. It is definitely worth $7,000 to me and I'll get lots of wonderful usage - it will be a bargain in my life. And I'm happy for those who recently bought it for less...

So I take it your vote would be for Kierland.

Terry

 

[djyamyam]

Today we concentrate on finding the very best deal for the money within the Marriott system. I know we all have our own oppinions, but we don't have to mention other Tuggers by name to do this.

Which Marriott resorts offer red, platinum, or platinum plus weeks that give you the most bang for the buck in today's market.


Things to condsider:

today's price
history of stable MF's and lack of high assessments
quality of resort and amenities
quality of surrounding areas and amenities
tradeability with II
rental rates
lock-off ability
accommodation certificates
driveability or cheap airfare


IMHO
A perfect platinum unit would be between $5-10K
MF's would be no more than $1000-1100
rental from the lock-off would be $1000
1BR deposit would get an AC from II each year
1BR deposit would trade for a 2BR at just about any other Marriott
Pool bar/restaurant (unless ski resort)


My current vote is Desert Springs Villas I


Terry

If this seller follows through with the sale, then I would say this auction meets the criteria. THIS is the best deal I've seen so far in the past few months

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT&item=150315270306

 

[cp73]

If this seller follows through with the sale, then I would say this auction meets the criteria. THIS is the best deal I've seen so far in the past few months

Wow, I agree. $3650 for a Platinum every year Shadow Ridge Week. Plus it says if you buy with an ebay mastercard you can get 15% off on that. Weeks in Feb, March, and April, could easily rent for at least $2000. Maintenance fees and taxes are probably around $1050.

 

[JudyS]

If this seller follows through with the sale, then I would say this auction meets the criteria. THIS is the best deal I've seen so far in the past few months

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT&item=150315270306

Wow, I agree. $3650 for a Platinum every year Shadow Ridge Week. Plus it says if you buy with an ebay mastercard you can get 15% off on that. Weeks in Feb, March, and April, could easily rent for at least $2000. Maintenance fees and taxes are probably around $1050.

The seller says, "We will look at and consider ALL BIDS." This sounds to me like they don't consider the auction to be binding. (And technically, eBay real estate auctions aren't binding.) So, there may be an "unstated reserve" that the seller has in mind.

Also, I think that 15% off w/eBay Mastercard has a pretty low maximum cap. I seem to recall you could only get $50 or so off with it.

Hey, Jim, if you're still here, why not buy a Summit Watch or Mountainside Platinum?

 

[m61376]

Hard to believe how this thread has developed. Most of us who have been in this for years have gone through a number of phases. We start gung-ho and stupid! Then we get some experience, learn about resale, trading, renting, etc.

In the end, the earliest advice I learned was to buy where you're happy going most of the time. And pay a price you feel good about. I paid retail for Kierland early in the process - about $27,000. I ended up with 152,000 Starpoints when they were worth a fortune, and it got me over $7,000 in hotel stays. And four years of great vacations. No regrets.

I'm a dentist and I've taken lots of practice management courses. The best advice about my fees was that a fair fee is one that makes the dentist feel richly rewarded and that the patient pays with gratitude. Any person who can only be happy if they pay absolute rock-bottom will be unhappy most of the time. This past summer I purchased a 2BR Platinum resale at the Westin Kierland for $7,000 - a price that I felt was an unbelievable coup. Do I feel like a schmuck now? Now way. It is definitely worth $7,000 to me and I'll get lots of wonderful usage - it will be a bargain in my life. And I'm happy for those who recently bought it for less.

I think the best advice now is to not only buy where you like to go, but to buy what you can truly use. The rental market is in the crapper and who knows where it will go.

Finally, I wish the two protagonists would move on. Our country is in big trouble from a lot of people who were sure about everything. A little humility goes a long way.

I agree with your vantage point about buying/enjoying completely. As a case in point, I bought resale 2 years ago and have recently commented that, while I paid a really good price in '06, by today's standards I threw perhaps 6K away; however, I had 2 fabulous vacations the first year and, after losing my Dad last year, the memories of those trips with my parents are irreplaceable. I think (or at least hope) most of us can look back on our family's trips and feel they were worth every penny of what we might have "overspent"- although hindsight is a wonderful thing.

However, I do rather enjoy both Boca's and Perry's posts. I don't really think they are being nasty, I think that some of their posts are designed just to be a little flip, for lack of a better word. I know that I for one have learned a lot from their discussions here and elsewhere, and it is kinda nice to hear both sides of the coin, so to speak.

 

[Zac495]

MC1376 - you said it all. My vacations with my parents and my kids are priceless. My picture trail is priceless. (I pay 150 per year to maintain it - priceless). Yeah - my Aruba Ocean Club's fees are making me mad. Yeah, I shouldn't have bought developer Manor Club since the point system dropped. but guess what? I'm going to HAWAII with the points from that silly purchase.

I worry about retirement - but I have a great job with a great pension (nothing safer than being a teacher these days). I'm going to continue to vacation because those are the stress-free days with the people I love most, and who won't be here forever. (or the other way around with the kids - god willing).

Perry - love hearing from you. I don't think anyone on this board is out to hurt anyone else. Some advice may or may not be good - but we're looking into a crystal ball with our economy - and that ball is very foggy. Don't take anyone (Boca, Perry, or anyone's) advice without using your own head! That's why it's called ADVICE.

 

[PerryM]

A freight train leaves St. Louis going 80 mph and you jump in front of it...

MC1376 - you said it all. My vacations with my parents and my kids are priceless. My picture trail is priceless. (I pay 150 per year to maintain it - priceless). Yeah - my Aruba Ocean Club's fees are making me mad. Yeah, I shouldn't have bought developer Manor Club since the point system dropped. but guess what? I'm going to HAWAII with the points from that silly purchase.

I worry about retirement - but I have a great job with a great pension (nothing safer than being a teacher these days). I'm going to continue to vacation because those are the stress-free days with the people I love most, and who won't be here forever. (or the other way around with the kids - god willing).

Perry - love hearing from you. I don't think anyone on this board is out to hurt anyone else. Some advice may or may not be good - but we're looking into a crystal ball with our economy - and that ball is very foggy. Don't take anyone (Boca, Perry, or anyone's) advice without using your own head! That's why it's called ADVICE.

Thanks, my point is still that trying to pick the bottom of the real estate collapse and bargain hunting is foolish at this time – wait for something to indicate that a bottom is forming and I’d have no problem with it.

I think most of us can put ourselves in the “loser column” when it comes to real estate price back then and price today. Everything cycles and when you feel that you are safe in your life and have some “pocket change” to blow on something like a timeshare go ahead and do it. But folks dump timeshares all the time - they thought it was fine to buy it at some point and are now facing bankruptcy - this decision is NOT made in a vacuum - do you really need another $1,000 per year expense (MF) for the rest of your life right now?

I don’t know about you guys but when I look at real estate its collapsed 50% in some areas and 15% in others with about 25% being an average? I don’t have exact numbers just a gut feeling from watching Zillow.

Timeshares are the only thing in the United States safe from all this carnage? When it hits timeshares 40+ years of phony-baloney artificial markets will implode the timeshare market. I truly believe “blood will run in the streets” before its safe to buy a timeshare again.

But I’m only 66% correct in my stock picks and maybe I’m wrong here – maybe timeshares are special and immune from the normal mayhem that is inflicting everything else around us.

You decide – I just report my opinions.

So let me restate my original reaction to this thread – Buying a timeshare, even resale, at this point is an incredibly dumb thing to do. (And that’s me putting on my holiday PC hat). But its your money and if you do the due diligence you can smile and report back that stepping in front of that freight train was an incredibly brilliant thing to do.