Timeshare market values
Having had contemplated buying a timeshare for close to a year prior to deciding to buy a week on the resale market may not make me an industry expert, but here are my thoughts:
The bad
1. The "price" set by the developer is astronomically high for a reason: - The initial purchaser pays all the sales and marketing expenses -the free weeks, free cruises, sales commissions and everything else. The developer also knows that they are actually selling a payment - regardless about what they tell you about vacation ownership. (This is not to say that I think timeshare is bad, otherwise I would not have bought one.) The developer's prime goal is to sell you the unit, because besides the initial price, they do benefit from the income stream that follows when you pay maintenance each year.
2. The deed protects the developer as much as it protects you - when they grant the deed, you agree in said deed to be responsible for taxes and MF "in perpetuity" for most cases.
3. Developer has zero incentive to keep the resale value up. Developer will build more resorts, and if they ever run out of inventory in a particular resort that is hot, they can just exercise ROFR on one that is being offered for sale by an "owner." No matter how hot the resort, if you do the math you will see that in any resort X number of units X 52 weeks that there will be a certain amount of people looking to sell.
4. The free market price (resale) recognizes that supply for the most part exceeds demand, based on a variety of factors - changes in lifestyle ,family configuration, and not to forget money issues which will motivate a seller to "dump" a property.
5. If the developer actually believed their own sales pitch, then why on earth would they not exercise ROFR for a resale at 10K when they sell the same thing (as developper) for 35K? The answer is that as long as someone is paying the MF and they have inventory available they don't care.
6. What the developer threatens resale buyers with as "stripped rights" are not worth the price differential - Take for instance the fact that if you buy resale you can't convert your week to MR points - If you actually do the math - where you could theoretically trade 1/2 your DP for MR points at 1DP to 32MR points, this would mean if you owned 3000 DP (1200 maint per year, plus initial cost of about 29400), you could get 48000 MR points in a cal year for 1200 bucks (3 nights in cat 4 hotel) - not exactly a penalty for buying resale when you consider that you save 20K off the bat. You could in theory not use your resale week for 10 years, not even try to bank or swap and still be economically equivalent if you bought from developer and got the points.
7. What ain't in the deed ain't written in stone: case in point DVC upcoming changes, though DVC was courteous enough to provide clear advance notice and be reasonable with the strike date.
8. The fact that the IRS allows US citizens to deduct interest on a mortgage as if timeshare was a "residence" is ridiculous. Makes for great marketing and lower consumer borrowing costs though.
9. The fact that a certain new trust program will charge "up to USD 1.00 per point for waiving ROFR" will almost eliminate the resale market of those - take a 3500 bite to them, 2000 to the agent, etc and if the price of points will reflect the price of weeks, you will see what I mean.
The good:
1. Timesharing does provide owners with (for the most part) bigger and better accommodation. I never want to go back to a 350 sq ft hotel room if I can avoid it.
2. For those that CAN afford it - and by that I mean have the cash to pay the upfront costs (from resale I dont believe in throwing money away) AND those who have sufficient extra cash left on a monthly or annual basis to pay for MF, travel, extras and inflation. (There is no sense owning a week if you can't afford to get to it or maintain it.) You can justify the upfront costs as prepaying for better / bigger accommodations.
3. If you meet the criteria in number 2, you can benefit from the fact that there are many people out there who bought from the developer that a) should not have bought from the developer and b) probably should not have bought at all. That all means that there is a large percentage of people that simply "need" the annual payments to go away which means buyer's market.
My rule of thumb:
1. Timeshare is not an investment.
2. The kids won't be off in gold season !
3. Do you have any consumer debt, If so think twice.
4. Is the timeshare vacation going to be one you can continue to afford? You will still spend money at the resort that "may" be included in paying for a hotel room or direct rent (housekeeping for instance) - bear this in mind. Remember also that you will need to spend money annually in order to receive the "benefit" of your timeshare - leave, plane tickets whatever.
5. How long can you afford to let it sit empty (with you paying) before you feel it financially.
6. Most importantly - before you buy - find out what it will cost you to "get out" - budget for ROFR waiver fees, realtor commissions, advertising, maintenance etc. and see that you can afford to LOSE that money.
Happy travels....