Hawaii. Go or No Go?

[klpca]

We lived in Kona for many years and just moved to the mainland to have access to better health care because we felt it was very limited on the outer islands. My concern would be that if you get sick from COVID-19 chances are you would have very few medical options or maybe none if the Kona, Waimea and Hilo hospitals are overwhelmed with patients which really would not take very many to do that. If COVID-19 keeps expanding on the islands like it is on the mainland then it is only a matter of time before thousands are infected in Hawaii. Our local friends say pretty much everything is shutting down anyway.

We have actually had a stay in the ICU at the hospital in Waimea. The staff was very nice but it in no way resembled what we are used to. They are affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic (electronically) and we had an excellent stay and a good outcome, but if I recall correctly there were a total of six ICU beds. I cannot actually recommend it for a stay in Hawaii. The beds are uncomfortable and the decor looks like it hasn't been updated since the 80's (note: sarcasm )

 

[TravelTime]

Despite governor’s plea, visitors are still coming ... and crowding into eateries

One Utah woman said she decided to come when she couldn’t cancel her flight.

www.hawaiinewsnow.com

 

[tombanjo]

Plans to quarantine all arrivals for 14 days.

The State plans to quarantine everyone coming to Hawaii for 14 days

Lieutenant Governor Josh Green wants to implement a 14-day quarantine for both residents and visitors coming into the islands.

www.khon2.com

not sure how they can enforce this with people continuing to completely ignore requests to distance or not arrive at all.

yes, in 30 or 60 days things could be completely different. Hopefully, in 30 days the trajectory of infection will have peaked and been flattened by the current policies to contain it.

 

[chellej]

Best of luck to your daughter on wherever her next assignment(s) take her, Chelle! Where is DD's next duty assignment?
@pedro47 ... same question to you too...
Our daughter is currently assigned to Atlantic City.

She is currently in Pensacola and is supposed to hear by today whats next....hopefully she will hear. She is hoping for Mobile because her DH has a really good job...they would each have an hour commute.

 

[fernow]

Love all the discussion but certainly note a dominate point of view. Right or wrong, we aren't going, so flamers please don't flame me.

The reason there has been a run on toilet paper is because there has been a run on toilet paper. Think about that. People are fascinating creatures.

Nobody on this site, including me, knows anything about this virus except what we have been told. Maybe it is going to kill us all. Maybe not. But most of us will ask no questions and do what we are told.

As MPrince pointed out, about 10k deaths world wide with a disease that started late last year. How does that fit with the rapid doubling times we have been told to expect. How does that fit with estimates of 1.2M deaths expected in the USA in the next few months? Wrong to ask the questions? Better to believe? Maybe.

In a few months we will know more but probably learn nothing. IF is as bad as THEY say, the economic impact and human impact will be horrible. IF it is NOT as bad as THEY say, the economic impact and human impact will be horrible. May end up with more suicide and homicide (tied to poverty) deaths than viral deaths.

Who KNOWS?

 

[bbodb1]

Love all the discussion but certainly note a dominate point of view. Right or wrong, we aren't going, so flamers please don't flame me.

The reason there has been a run on toilet paper is because there has been a run on toilet paper. Think about that. People are fascinating creatures.

Nobody on this site, including me, knows anything about this virus except what we have been told. Maybe it is going to kill us all. Maybe not. But most of us will ask no questions and do what we are told.

As MPrince pointed out, about 10k deaths world wide with a disease that started late last year. How does that fit with the rapid doubling times we have been told to expect. How does that fit with estimates of 1.2M deaths expected in the USA in the next few months? Wrong to ask the questions? Better to believe? Maybe.

In a few months we will know more but probably learn nothing. IF is as bad as THEY say, the economic impact and human impact will be horrible. IF it is NOT as bad as THEY say, the economic impact and human impact will be horrible. May end up with more suicide and homicide (tied to poverty) deaths than viral deaths.

Who KNOWS?

People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals, and you know it.

 

[brp]

As MPrince pointed out, about 10k deaths world wide with a disease that started late last year. How does that fit with the rapid doubling times we have been told to expect. How does that fit with estimates of 1.2M deaths expected in the USA in the next few months? Wrong to ask the questions? Better to believe? Maybe.

I can speak to this as I've been doing the analysis based on real data. Now, these are past data and, as they say, this is not a guarantee of future performance, but:

In Italy, over the course of almost a month they showed a rate of increase whereby there was a decade increase (factor of 10) every 8 days.

In the US, over about 3 weeks (since we started later), the rate was a 10-fold increase every 13 days as of yesterday. As of today, that number is closer to every 12.4 days as it has been increasing at a higher rate. With this prediction, we will exceed 1000 deaths on 29 March.

Of course, we're taking steps to mitigate this, so it won't continue. But you can see how, unchecked, this has the potential to get big fast. This is not the flu by any means, current numbers notwithstanding.

People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals, and you know it.

That's true as well

Cheers.

 

[TravelTime]

Love all the discussion but certainly note a dominate point of view. Right or wrong, we aren't going, so flamers please don't flame me.

The reason there has been a run on toilet paper is because there has been a run on toilet paper. Think about that. People are fascinating creatures.

Nobody on this site, including me, knows anything about this virus except what we have been told. Maybe it is going to kill us all. Maybe not. But most of us will ask no questions and do what we are told.

As MPrince pointed out, about 10k deaths world wide with a disease that started late last year. How does that fit with the rapid doubling times we have been told to expect. How does that fit with estimates of 1.2M deaths expected in the USA in the next few months? Wrong to ask the questions? Better to believe? Maybe.

In a few months we will know more but probably learn nothing. IF is as bad as THEY say, the economic impact and human impact will be horrible. IF it is NOT as bad as THEY say, the economic impact and human impact will be horrible. May end up with more suicide and homicide (tied to poverty) deaths than viral deaths.

Who KNOWS?

I tend to agree with you. Right now, we know very little about the virus and its real toll but we know for sure that there will be mass human suffering due to the economic impact and mental health impact. People are already being greedy with each other and demanding that others pay for their losses. I think the way people are handling this is really extreme, as if we will all die. That is simply not going to happen. The vast majority of people who get Covid-19 show no symptoms or have mild symptoms. They have already discovered vaccines and treatments that are being tested. Humans are followers and we will follow our leaders like sheep. This was demonstrated in the Milgram Shock Experiment. See link below for a description. I think everyone is pointing to Italy as a worst case example. But what about looking at Germany where the death rate is only 0.2%. How about looking at how the Asian countries that have gotten this under control? The economic impact and mental health impact is going to hurt everyone and will last for many years. The poor are going to be hurt more than everyone else, leading to even greater income inequality. I know it is unpopular to think about the economic impacts right now but this is a cause of real human suffering as well as physical and mental health problems. We need to consider it too. Mexico is recognizing that economic problems will hurt their poor more than anyone else and that is why they have tried to keep their economy operating. Like it or not, agree or disagree, these are important considerations. I hope everyone will be fair with each other and share in the losses.

Milgram Shock Experiment | Summary | Results | Ethics

The Milgram Shock Experiment, conducted by Stanley Milgram in the 1960s, tested obedience to authority. Participants were instructed to administer increasingly severe electric shocks to another person, who was actually an actor, as they answered questions incorrectly. Despite hearing the actor’s...

www.simplypsychology.org

 

[Luanne]

Despite governor’s plea, visitors are still coming ... and crowding into eateries

One Utah woman said she decided to come when she couldn’t cancel her flight.

www.hawaiinewsnow.com

I'm surprised Hawaii hasn't gone the route of many other states and shut down restaurants except for take out and delivery.

 

[slip]

I'm surprised Hawaii hasn't gone the route of many other states and shut down restaurants except for take out and delivery.

It started today But some Businesses started early.

 

[Luanne]

It started today But some Businesses started early.

Things change so fast. One of our favorite restaurants was saying a few days ago they were still open and also doing take out. The next day it was take out only. One day later they were closing completely.

My nephew and his wife have a wedding venue in Missouri. I asked my sister a few weeks ago if they had been impacted. She said no. I was talking to her today, and oh boy have they been impacted now. The state (or maybe it was their county) limited gatherings to 50 people. So that impacted a lot of the weddings they were doing. He is not offering refunds (he said if he had to refund everything he'd go out of business) but he is offering to change dates, to work with people to do smaller weddings. Then as I was talking to my sister my brother in law came in and said the restriction was now no more than 10 at a gathering. I hope they make it through this.

 

[fernow]

brp: Are you looking at deaths or "cases"? Cases are a less reliable number. Hard to fake death.
IF deaths and cases have a fixed relationship, and first Italian death was mid Feb, there should be about 10k deaths if ten-fold increase every 8 days.
IF China had a similar rate, and first death occurred in mid December, there should be between 10M and 100M deaths. I know we can't trust the Chinese data but I think 100M deaths might be hard to conceal.
California has locked down and STILL we are told over 50% of us will eventually get the disease. So...the point of the lockdown is...?
Gotta admit that some of the info just doesn't match up.
Again, time will tell but important to ask the questions and LEARN, one way or the other, from this event.
IF nothing else, maybe the next time, and there will be a next time, we will have a better idea what to do.

 

[Luanne]

California has locked down and STILL we are told over 50% of us will eventually get the disease. So...the point of the lockdown is...?

Maybe to keep 100% of the population from getting it.

Maybe to keep it from spreading to the more vulnerable population who may die from it.

 

[tah]

California has locked down and STILL we are told over 50% of us will eventually get the disease. So...the point of the lockdown is...?

because if you don't lock down it may be more than 50%...

 

[brp]

brp: Are you looking at deaths or "cases"? Cases are a less reliable number. Hard to fake death.

Looking strictly at deaths because, as you say, cases are highly unreliable.

The site I'm using for data is this

Coronavirus Update (Live): 128,728,806 Cases and 2,813,723 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

And I started in each case from then the total count reached 10 to minimize the impact of the noise in the first few. In Italy that was roughly Feb 26. Then March 5 they were over 100 and March 12 over 1000. 3400 as of yesterday, and hew curve is showing definite signs of being less-than-exponential for several days now due, likely, to their mitigation strategies. They will not be at 10K by tomorow.

US, however, is still quite exponential and the rate has increased in the past couple of days. We'll see soon (I hope) if the mitigations start to have any impact.

And again, these are only models and are really based on pre-mitigation trends.

California has locked down and STILL we are told over 50% of us will eventually get the disease. So...the point of the lockdown is...?

Actually, they issued an update saying that was a without mitigation estimate, i.e. if we kept things business as usual. They definitely expect less with mitigation. And to be clear (since these are actually defined terms), we are not on lockdown. This is shelter-in-place and we are allowed out for even things like taking a walk. while maintaining diostance Lockdown is far more stringent.

Cheers.

 

[DaveNV]

This is from the Washington state Department of Health. It bears on the posts just above:

So apply this nationally, and the numbers reported aren't (and can't be) exactly accurate.

Dave

 

[brp]

So apply this nationally, and the numbers reported aren't (and can't be) exactly accurate.

Dave

Indeed. That's been known for some time. South Korea probably has the best data since their testing is most extensive. And even there it's not going to be completely accurate.

Cheers.

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

I figure that by the time this is over, a minimum of 50% of the world population will have picked up the virus, perhaps closer to 100%. For the majority, they will be asymptomatic carriers. Another large group will experience it as only a mild cough, congestion, and fever.

But the takeaway is that we should all consider that acquiring the virus is inevitable. What is a factor is whether your exposure might occur at a time when effective countermeasures are available. That is one of the big items with flattening the curve - it buys time, as well as easing the strain on medical care facilities.

If there were no possibility to implement effective countermeasures, then arguably taking no measures would be more practical. Let the v irus, hit, spread quickly, and get it over with as soon as possible, accepting the casualties as inevitable, since they would be occurring in either case. And leaving behind a population that has resistance to continuing outbreaks to the virus.

 

[brp]

If there were no possibility to implement effective countermeasures, then arguably taking no measures would be more practical. Let the v irus, hit, spread quickly, and get it over with as soon as possible, accepting the casualties as inevitable, since they would be occurring in either case. And leaving behind a population that has resistance to continuing outbreaks to the virus.

The older/retired/at risk population, i.e. the "casualties" in your proposal are a strong and generally wealthy lobby. That's why this will never happen.

Besides, if we really did "nothing" and let it run its course, casualty numbers would likely be huge.

Cheers.

 

[jehb2]

Stomach bugs, flu, viruses, etc. spread very quickly across the islands.

 

[JohnPaul]

And we already know that the virus does not do well in heat and humidity. So, while I believe that I've read of one cause of community transmission in Hawaii, it's a pretty low probability even for an infected person.

I'm afraid that we DO NOT KNOW that the virus does not do well in heat and humidity. The virus is in virtually EVERY country in the world including lots of them that are hot and steamy.

(Political comment removed)

 

[brp]

I'm afraid that we DO NOT KNOW that the virus does not do well in heat and humidity. The virus is in virtually EVERY country in the world including lots of them that are hot and steamy.

Talking specifically about community transmission, not cases. And we have some very good science (as noted) for the impact of heat and humidity on the isolated virus on surfaces, which is how the majority of communal transmission occurs. So, yeah, we do have a good idea about this.
Cheers.

 

[TravelTime]

The older/retired/at risk population, i.e. the "casualties" in your proposal are a strong and generally wealthy lobby. That's why this will never happen.

Besides, if we really did "nothing" and let it run its course, casualty numbers would likely be huge.

Cheers.

I am confused by what you mean that the "older/retired/at risk population, i.e. the "casualties" in your proposal are a strong and generally wealthy lobby." Are you saying that being wealthy is somehow protective?

 

[brp]

I am confused by what you mean that the "older/retired/at risk population, i.e. the "casualties" in your proposal are a strong and generally wealthy lobby." Are you saying that being wealthy is somehow protective?

Nope. I'm saying that being part of a powerful lobby means that public policies, at all levels, will be impacted in your favor. Not making a value judgement, just stating the reality.

Cheers.

 

[lynne]

Big Island Update: All state beaches have already been closed, county beaches will be closed beginning tomorrow (Saturday).
2 more Covid-19 cases from tourists - PLEASE STAY HOME until this is past