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Hawaii. Go or No Go?

alwysonvac

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For those who haven’t read the other COVID-19 threads....
  1. When you hear exponential growth, they‘re referring to number of COVID-19 cases.
  2. When you hear flatten the curve, they’re talking about reducing the number of people getting infected via social distancing. It's too late now to prevent COVID-19 from spreading in our communities, the only thing we can do is limit and slow that spread so we can save lives.
  3. Why the hype? COVID-19 is less deadly than other large-scale outbreaks, such as of SARS, MERS and Ebola. But the infection seems to spread more easily than other diseases, including seasonal influenza and has a greater potential to overwhelm our health care system. We basically have fewer tools and no natural immunity.
There is a fundamental difference in how flu and Covid-19 kill. Many deaths from flu are caused by secondary bacterial pneumonia and heart attacks that develop after the flu has weakened someone's resistance. With Covid-19, most deaths are caused by acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), which causes already-damaged lungs to fill with fluid, and makes breathing difficult. Unlike pneumonia, there is no pharmaceutical treatment for ARDS. That is why a potential shortage of ventilators is so dangerous: They are the last-ditch supportive treatment for Covid-19 while the body heals itself.
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There are lots of articles. Here are a few
 
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TravelTime

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Nope. I'm saying that being part of a powerful lobby means that public policies, at all levels, will be impacted in your favor. Not making a value judgement, just stating the reality.

Cheers.
I did not realize the "older/retired/at risk population" is a wealthy lobby.
 

bbodb1

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I did not realize the "older/retired/at risk population" is a wealthy lobby.
It is a powerful voting bloc....
Because they actually vote!
 

brp

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brp

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For those who haven’t read the other COVID-19 threads....
  1. When you hear exponential growth, they‘re referring to number of COVID-19 cases
Very excellent analysis, hut I singled this one out to say that, while true, it is incomplete.

The death rate is also exponential over a reasonably long time period. In the two countries I modeled (Italy and the US), the growth in the number of death is exponential. It has slowed in Italy recently (as new cases will also slow to less than exponential). but is still exponential at this time in the US.

The US death toll grows by an order of magnitude every 12.1 days and this trend has been going for about 16 days. This model predicts over 1000 deaths in the US by about March 28/29. I hope we flatten before then.

Cheers.
 

HGVC Lover

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Agree with your assessment......people are quoting antidotal studies that have to do with other types of viruses and not COVID-19.....if heat and humidity were the magic bullet that stopped COVID-19 then all of us could turn our houses into temporary saunas and problem would be solved......
 

Rolltydr

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I’m sorry but this is driving me nuts. The word is “anecdotal”, not antidotal. Antidotal is not a word.


Harry
 

Talent312

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The word is “anecdotal,” not antidotal. Antidotal is not a word.
However, I'm "antidotal." I'm opposed to doting.
A person who dotes looks rather silly... anecdotally.
 
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HGVC Lover

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Mark Twain Quotes On Spelling:

"Anyone who can only think of one way to spell a word obviously lacks imagination."

"I have no respect for a man who can spell a word only one way."

"Never trust anyone who can’t spell a word more than one way."
 

brp

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Agree with your assessment......people are quoting antidotal studies that have to do with other types of viruses and not COVID-19.....if heat and humidity were the magic bullet that stopped COVID-19 then all of us could turn our houses into temporary saunas and problem would be solved......
I was likely unclear in what I wrote. Apologies. As I said, this is specific to communal transmission. This is not about a cure or antidote. And, no, these are not anecdotal studies. These are scientific studies with well defined hypotheses, procedures, methods and results.

This is simply about the impact of heat and humidity on the virus ex vivo. The virus is primarily transmitted by someone infected coughing, sneezing, spitting, breathing on a surface, depositing the virus. The virus can live on different surfaces for different amounts of time (this has also been measured). An uninfected person touches the surface, gets the virus on hands, touches face and acquires the virus. Someone infected sneezing within 3 or so feet can also cause this, but that's less common.

The studies are about that. Transmission. Now, the studies have found that the viable life of he virus during which it can infect is impacted by environmental factors. All living things are. In the case of coronaviruses, and COVID-19 (which is a coronavirus), higher heat and humidity reduce the viable life of the virus. These reports have measured this and shown the results. No anecdotes. Data.

To quite Neil deGrasse Tyson (also available on a t-shirt :))

“The good thing about science is that it's true whether or not you believe in it.”

Cheers.
 

bbodb1

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If you choose not to decide you still have made a choice.

Neal Peart
 

T_R_Oglodyte

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I figure that by the time this is over, a minimum of 50% of the world population will have picked up the virus, perhaps closer to 100%. For the majority, they will be asymptomatic carriers. Another large group will experience it as only a mild cough, congestion, and fever.

But the takeaway is that we should all consider that acquiring the virus is inevitable. What is a factor is whether your exposure might occur at a time when effective countermeasures are available. That is one of the big items with flattening the curve - it buys time, as well as easing the strain on medical care facilities.

If there were no possibility to implement effective countermeasures, then arguably taking no measures would be more practical. Let the v irus, hit, spread quickly, and get it over with as soon as possible, accepting the casualties as inevitable, since they would be occurring in either case. And leaving behind a population that has resistance to continuing outbreaks to the virus.
Just for clarity, note that the underlined sentence is written in the subjunctive tense, condition contrary to fact. (As when Tevye sings, "If I were a rich man".)

But since there is a possibility of implementing counter-meaures, it is prudent to slow it down as much as possible.
 

1Kflyerguy

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They just announced a mandatory 14 day quarantine for all arriving passengers. I haven't seen an end date for that. We are canceling our May trip.
 

slip

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They just announced a mandatory 14 day quarantine for all arriving passengers. I haven't seen an end date for that. We are canceling our May trip.
I believe they said until further notice.
 

bbodb1

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We have a trip 3rd week of May. We're keeping it for now to see how things play out.

Cheers.
We are a bit after you @brp but will likely pull the plug very soon so we can get our Wyndham points back and push them forward into the next year. We had to use something like 400K points for our Hawaii trip. Don't want to lose those or have those go to RCI...
 

brp

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We are a bit after you @brp but will likely pull the plug very soon so we can get our Wyndham points back and push them forward into the next year. We had to use something like 400K points for our Hawaii trip. Don't want to lose those or have those go to RCI...
For us, the air is Alaska (and we're MVP Gold, so can cancel for no fee) the these are Marriott hotel points with one refundable paid night. We have until like 2 days before to cancel, although they'll likely waive fees anyway. So no reason to do anything for a while.

Cheers.
 

1Kflyerguy

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For us, the air is Alaska (and we're MVP Gold, so can cancel for no fee) the these are Marriott hotel points with one refundable paid night. We have until like 2 days before to cancel, although they'll likely waive fees anyway. So no reason to do anything for a while.

Cheers.
I hope your able to go. The mandatory quarantine order has been updated to have an end of May 20th. We decided we were tired of the uncertainty, as potential our entire trip would be under quarantine. . The way things are going it seems unlikely it would be a normal vacation, and we will take our chances that we visit later in the year.

Obviously this is fast changing situation, so with luck things will clear up, and they will lift the mandatory quarantine in time for you.
 
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dsmrp

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I figure that by the time this is over, a minimum of 50% of the world population will have picked up the virus, perhaps closer to 100%. For the majority, they will be asymptomatic carriers. Another large group will experience it as only a mild cough, congestion, and fever.

But the takeaway is that we should all consider that acquiring the virus is inevitable. What is a factor is whether your exposure might occur at a time when effective countermeasures are available. That is one of the big items with flattening the curve - it buys time, as well as easing the strain on medical care facilities.
...
Funny, I just came to a similar realization this morning before I read your post.
Until a vaccine can be developed, maybe in a year, or incidence of virus in community drops down to nil, we all have a high probability of exposure and acquiring virus. COVID is not like influenza, but I hope like influenza its incidence will drop way down in the summer.

I've heard mention of 2nd and even 3rd waves of COVID infections. :(
I'm like many others thinking we could more or less get back to some traveling in early summer.
 

T_R_Oglodyte

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Funny, I just came to a similar realization this morning before I read your post.
Until a vaccine can be developed, maybe in a year, or incidence of virus in community drops down to nil, we all have a high probability of exposure and acquiring virus. COVID is not like influenza, but I hope like influenza its incidence will drop way down in the summer.

I've heard mention of 2nd and even 3rd waves of COVID infections. :(
I'm like many others thinking we could more or less get back to some traveling in early summer.
It's actually a straightforward outcome once the virus has spread so far that containment is no longer a viable strategy. So now we're looking at flattening the curve. But that means the virus will still be out there when the isolation and distancing measures are dropped. So whenever those precautions are lifted, people who have been protected by self-distancing will now be exposed. Which means that pretty much everyone in the world is going to be exposed sooner or later.

It seems to me that there almost inevitably will be a second wave of infections when those measures are dropped, because there will be that fresh source of people who haven't been exposed. It will be similar to running a timeshare sales program at a resort. If the only source of sales leads is existing timeshare owners, your sales program is going to lag because you're selling to people who have already been exposed. But when you can tap in a new source of leads, people who haven't gained immunity from past exposures, the probability of a successful sale increases.
 

dsmrp

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It's actually a straightforward outcome once the virus has spread so far that containment is no longer a viable strategy. So now we're looking at flattening the curve. But that means the virus will still be out there when the isolation and distancing measures are dropped. So whenever those precautions are lifted, people who have been protected by self-distancing will now be exposed. Which means that pretty much everyone in the world is going to be exposed sooner or later.

It seems to me that there almost inevitably will be a second wave of infections when those measures are dropped, because there will be that fresh source of people who haven't been exposed. It will be similar to running a timeshare sales program at a resort. If the only source of sales leads is existing timeshare owners, your sales program is going to lag because you're selling to people who have already been exposed. But when you can tap in a new source of leads, people who haven't gained immunity from past exposures, the probability of a successful sale increases.
Yes, I understand and pretty much agree.
However it sounds a little fatalistic, that for a small percentage of population: elderly and those with high risk factors are pretty much screwed to have more severe consequences whether they contract virus now or later. That is if they can't self-isolate or quarantine until a vaccine is available.

Personally, if I'm going to be exposed, I'd rather have it in the heat of summer.
 

brp

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It's actually a straightforward outcome once the virus has spread so far that containment is no longer a viable strategy. So now we're looking at flattening the curve. But that means the virus will still be out there when the isolation and distancing measures are dropped. So whenever those precautions are lifted, people who have been protected by self-distancing will now be exposed. Which means that pretty much everyone in the world is going to be exposed sooner or later.
Perhaps. But not everyone gets the flu, or other coronaviruses, so it is very possible that there are natural immunities to this. Of course, we don;t know enough yet. Still, it would be pretty bad with no controls. And, as you say, may still get bad when controls get relaxed.

Cheers.
 

T_R_Oglodyte

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Yes, I understand and pretty much agree.
However it sounds a little fatalistic, that for a small percentage of population: elderly and those with high risk factors are pretty much screwed to have more severe consequences whether they contract virus now or later. That is if they can't self-isolate or quarantine until a vaccine is available.

Personally, if I'm going to be exposed, I'd rather have it in the heat of summer.
Not fatalistic. Delaying the onset of infection allows for counter-measures to be developed and made available. The isolation and self-distancing measures would not be lifted until there are appropriate response provisions in place. I would expect that when the time comes when measures are lifted, the lifting will be done in stages.

The fatalistic option is to assume that everyone is going to get it sooner or later, deploying counter measures can't be done in any reasonable time frame, so those who are susceptible will die - it's only a question of when. As I've posted previously, if that is the assumption then it makes the most sense to impose no measures at all, letting the virus run amok and kill those whom it is going to kill, leaving behind a world immune or resistant survivors. That option probably ends the pandemic in a matter of several months in each locale once the virus hits. That is the fastest track to a post-COVID-19 world.
 

GT75

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If ever there was a time when someone was thinking about going "off the grid" to some remote location, now would be a great time to do that. I do agree with the analysis behind flattening the curve (at least that is my understanding of what we are trying to do). If you look at the two curves in @alwysonvac post #76, the people infected under each curve should be the same. As stated, a flatten curve allows the health care system to better respond and also buys time for better treatment options (maybe dying out in the summer months or a vaccine). Also, you will now notice that China is worried about re-infections from those coming back from outside of China (As I suspect also for South Korea).
 

dsmrp

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Let's hope the government can fast track development of a vaccine, or allow commercial companies to research & develop one. I think anti-viral medications would normally take years. There's one I heard of that was partially tested for Ebola but subsequently dropped, which is being trialed.
 
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