Electric Vehicles Climb to 10% Of New Cars Sold

[Brett]

It can be a challenge in some cars these days! The battery in my Macan is actually under the rear passenger seat, accessed through a panel in the trunk (damn German engineers ). However, there are remote battery ports under the hood, close to the windshield for jumping. I'd bet your wife ran into a similar situation.

Kurt

yeah, the 12 volt battery is in the back trunk panel. They gave up and let someone else jumpstart the other car

 

[HitchHiker71]

yeah, the 12 volt battery is in the back trunk panel. They gave up and let someone else jumpstart the other car

Eventually 12 volt lead acid batteries will be deprecated from vehicles altogether as we move toward an electrified fleet. Tesla is moving to a 48 volt LI system in the Cybertruck this year and the M3 and MY will do the same next year - along with the nextgen platform. Other legacy manufacturers will inevitably follow in the same footsteps.

 

[DrQ]

Eventually 12 volt lead acid batteries will be deprecated from vehicles altogether as we move toward an electrified fleet. Tesla is moving to a 48 volt LI system in the Cybertruck this year and the M3 and MY will do the same next year - along with the nextgen platform. Other legacy manufacturers will inevitably follow in the same footsteps.

Most EVs have a 12 battery to run OTS (off the shelf) accessories and gauges.

 

[HitchHiker71]

Most EVs have a 12 battery to run OTS (off the shelf) accessories and gauges.

Yes - in 2021 Tesla moved away from lead acid batteries to a 12 bolt LI battery system. They just announced a move to 48 volt LI battery systems and all wiring/accessory systems starting later this year. 48 volt systems are much more efficient due to much less resistance.

Tesla Kills 12-Volt Car Systems, Goes to 48-Volt, but Will Industry Follow?

Tesla's announcement today that the EV maker is transitioning to 48-volt systems is a wake-up call to the rest of the auto industry to follow. Here's why.

www.motorbiscuit.com

 

[DrQ]

Yes - in 2021 Tesla moved away from lead acid batteries to a 12 bolt LI battery system. They just announced a move to 48 volt LI battery systems and all wiring/accessory systems starting later this year. 48 volt systems are much more efficient due to much less resistance.

Tesla Kills 12-Volt Car Systems, Goes to 48-Volt, but Will Industry Follow?

Tesla's announcement today that the EV maker is transitioning to 48-volt systems is a wake-up call to the rest of the auto industry to follow. Here's why.

www.motorbiscuit.com

I see this landing with a big thud in the industry.

With an EV, you don't need the cold cranking capacity to start a cold engine, so converting to a Li Ion battery would not be an issue, but I'm sure other manufactures will resist (pun intended) moving away from the 12V system. They have too much infrastructure built around the current canbus standard and I'm pretty sure it is built on a 12v negative ground system. They have decades of control modules built around this system. I don't think that they are going to dump that investment and not allow the use of components between ICE, hybrid and EV car lines.

Also, there is a safety issue. The 12 volt system is considered the "safe" circuits. The drive batteries are grouped in parallel/series combination which might be ~48V. This is lethal. If you are going to drive the electronics off the drive batteries, you need to be very careful to make sure those circuits are current limited to fail safe. The drive motor voltage can be whatever voltage you design it to be the most efficient.

FWIW, I think some big rigs may be based on 24V systems, but again that is based on the huge CCA of a lead acid battery for starting a diesel in the cold.

 

[HitchHiker71]

I see this landing with a big thud in the industry.

With an EV, you don't need the cold cranking capacity to start a cold engine, so converting to a Li Ion battery would not be an issue, but I'm sure other manufactures will resist (pun intended) moving away from the 12V system. They have too much infrastructure built around the current canbus standard and I'm pretty sure it is built on a 12v negative ground system. They have decades of control modules built around this system. I don't think that they are going to dump that investment and not allow the use of components between ICE, hybrid and EV car lines.

Also, there is a safety issue. The 12 volt system is considered the "safe" circuits. The drive batteries are grouped in parallel/series combination which might be ~48V. This is lethal. If you are going to drive the electronics off the drive batteries, you need to be very careful to make sure those circuits are current limited to fail safe. The drive motor voltage can be whatever voltage you design it to be the most efficient.

FWIW, I think some big rigs may be based on 24V systems, but again that is based on the huge CCA of a lead acid battery for starting a diesel in the cold.

Just fine by me if the legacy manufacturers avoid converting - just one more advantage for Tesla.

The battery drive systems are typically between 400-800 volt systems - I am not talking about voltage of the drive systems - I’m only referring to the voltage for the accessory systems (12 vs 48 volt). 48 volt systems are more efficient than the old 12 volt systems and the wiring required is less expensive as a result. One of the key advantages that Tesla has is they don’t have to deal with legacy manufacturing investments in existing legacy systems - which is why their vehicles are typically 20-30% more efficient than other comparable EVs on the road today when we look at range ratings with similarly sized vehicles using the same or almost the same size battery packs. The only manufacturer I’m aware of that can match Tesla is Lucid at this time. Hopefully the other manufacturers will catch up over time.

 

[Brett]

Eventually 12 volt lead acid batteries will be deprecated from vehicles altogether as we move toward an electrified fleet. Tesla is moving to a 48 volt LI system in the Cybertruck this year and the M3 and MY will do the same next year - along with the nextgen platform. Other legacy manufacturers will inevitably follow in the same footsteps.

Most EVs have a 12 battery to run OTS (off the shelf) accessories and gauges.

At some point 12 volt batteries will eventually be "legacy" batteries

 

[MrockStar]

Voltages higher than 12-24 Volts become more dangerous, because of potential difference and arcing can occur more often leading to safety concerns.

 

[tombanjo]

static electricity can be 5,000 volts. (Hence the arcing). My socks have yet to kill me.

It is the amperage that can hurt.

A ten watt light bult can be 100 v at .1 amps or 1 v at 10 amps. Or, realistically, in a car, 12v at .8 amps.

And (big and here) now that many things are moving to LEDs, the power needed is getting less.

so a low amperage but higher voltage system is not more dangerous in terms of power

 

[Brett]

Voltages higher than 12-24 Volts become more dangerous, because of potential difference and arcing can occur more often leading to safety concerns.

it's more about the amps - I was hit with 50,000 volts and survived !

 

[tombanjo]

Here is an article on the millions who died when stuck in an electric vehicle in below freezing conditions for 12 hours.

Oh wait, no one died, it was perfectly fine.

I Idled in an Electric Car for 12 Hours in the Freezing Cold to See What Would Happen

The I-95 shutdown ignited a debate about EVs in winter, so I did an extraordinarily mundane test

www.insidehook.com

 

[Brett]

Here is an article on the millions who died when stuck in an electric vehicle in below freezing conditions for 12 hours.

Oh wait, no one died, it was perfectly fine.

I Idled in an Electric Car for 12 Hours in the Freezing Cold to See What Would Happen

The I-95 shutdown ignited a debate about EVs in winter, so I did an extraordinarily mundane test

www.insidehook.com

"how electric cars perform in the cold is “an old perception of batteries or battery technology.” Batteries are better today, range is better
and the vehicles as a whole product are better"

 

[Carolinian]

Report: U.S. power grid not ready for growing EV market | Eastern North Carolina Now

The push for electric vehicles in North Carolina and across the country may be the step that broke the power grids back, according to a new report.

www.beaufortcountynow.com

 

[Passepartout]

Report: U.S. power grid not ready for growing EV market | Eastern North Carolina Now

The push for electric vehicles in North Carolina and across the country may be the step that broke the power grids back, according to a new report.

www.beaufortcountynow.com

With $.86.5/gal gas tax I'd say NC isn't all that ready for gasoline powered vehicles either- or the legislators are simply using automobiles as cash cows to mask other 'tax savings'.

I see that I put FAA tax on this total, so federal and state highway tax is like $.57. Still puts NC at #5th highest in the USA.

Jim

 

[Brett]

With $.86.5/gal gas tax I'd say NC isn't all that ready for gasoline powered vehicles either- or the legislators are simply using automobiles as cash cows to mask other 'tax savings'.

yep

 

[Carolinian]

With $.86.5/gal gas tax I'd say NC isn't all that ready for gasoline powered vehicles either- or the legislators are simply using automobiles as cash cows to mask other 'tax savings'.

I see that I put FAA tax on this total, so federal and state highway tax is like $.57. Still puts NC at #5th highest in the USA.

Jim

In the Great Depression, NC state government took over building roads that had previously been a county responsibility, and it may be that such expenses here are simply to a greater degree at the state than local level.

EV's are also given what is considered a free ride, something that the legislator from my district has on his list of key things to do this session to fix and get them paying their fair share. EVs are heavier than most cars and so wear out the roads faster, so they ought to be paying more than other cars.

 

[Passepartout]

In the Great Depression, NC state government took over building roads that had previously been a county responsibility, and it may be that such expenses here are simply to a greater degree at the state than local level.

I doubt there is a great deal of difference in road upkeep and construction cost between Georgia (29.1 cpg), Virginia (26.2 cpg), S. Carolina (26.75 cpg), and NC at nearly 39 cents per gallon, plus the federal rate of 18.4 cents a gallon. NC is simply gouging fuel users more deeply than surrounding states.

As one who pays $75 annual 'hybrid fuel tax' every year our car is registered PLUS road tax at the pump, I take offense at the premise that I'm somehow getting a 'free ride' or not paying my share.

But as one who does so, I'm a helluva lot more 'tax wise' than someone who defiantly puts airplane gas in a car and pays the taxes for both!

Carolinian, when I came to TUG, I took many of your views as 'gospel'. As one who admired your work in Eastern Europe, I somehow thought you were doing good by helping others, but now, I see your views as misguided, and not fully thought through.

I wish you well, but feel that you are trapped in a world of some 40odd (or more) years ago. Obviously you are comfortable there, but proselytize as you will, that world has moved on. . . . Adieu.

 

[HitchHiker71]

I am finally jumping in on the BEV front officially myself - we are swapping out my wife's 2017 Honda Accord EX-L for a Tesla Y Long Range before end of month - ETA on delivery date is 3/24-3/31. She test drove both the Tesla model 3 and the Tesla Y last weekend and picked out her colors and equipment and I found a model in existing inventory on Tuesday and grabbed it up.

 

[Superchief]

With $.86.5/gal gas tax I'd say NC isn't all that ready for gasoline powered vehicles either- or the legislators are simply using automobiles as cash cows to mask other 'tax savings'.

I see that I put FAA tax on this total, so federal and state highway tax is like $.57. Still puts NC at #5th highest in the USA.

Jim

In border cities, this just creates more business for Georgia and South Carolina. I've learned where to buy gas on road trips. NC is probably losing a lot of tax revenue due to this excessive tax.

 

[HitchHiker71]

In border cities, this just creates more business for Georgia and South Carolina. I've learned where to buy gas on road trips. NC is probably losing a lot of tax revenue due to this excessive tax.

Yes, but at the same time - NC also has been rated in the top 5 destinations for moving according to UHaul tracking and other reporting mechanisms - in both 2021 and 2022.

North Carolina ranks among top 5 most moved to state in 2021, survey says

People surveyed said their motivations for moving ranged from political, ecological and economic.

www.wcnc.com

This is in part because it's increasingly business friendly:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/13/north-carolina-is-no-1-in-americas-top-states-for-business.html

So while it may have high gas taxes - it doesn't seem to be impeding folks from moving to NC state.

 

[Brett]

In border cities, this just creates more business for Georgia and South Carolina. I've learned where to buy gas on road trips. NC is probably losing a lot of tax revenue due to this excessive tax.

The local news in Jacksonville Florida occasionally mentions lower gas taxes across the border in Georgia.

 

[Superchief]

Yes, but at the same time - NC also has been rated in the top 5 destinations for moving according to UHaul tracking and other reporting mechanisms - in both 2021 and 2022.

North Carolina ranks among top 5 most moved to state in 2021, survey says

People surveyed said their motivations for moving ranged from political, ecological and economic.

www.wcnc.com

This is in part because it's increasingly business friendly:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/13/north-carolina-is-no-1-in-americas-top-states-for-business.html

So while it may have high gas taxes - it doesn't seem to be impeding folks from moving to NC state.

If I were to move due to the increasing taxes in Hamilton County, I would prefer South Carolina. It is more affordable, less government intrusive, and very friendly.
Speaking of gas prices, I just drove from Flagstaff to Phoenix. Gas in Flagstaff was about $3.69 but it's over $4 in Phoenix. Why are they so high? Are they also trying to force people to buy EV's?

 

[Brett]

US Electric Vehicles Sales Hit New Record, And People Are Buying More Than Just Teslas

https://www.pcmag.com/news/us-ev-ca...d-and-people-are-buying-more-than-just-teslas

"Although gas-powered cars still dominate, EVs are gaining in popularity in the US, thanks in part to federal tax credits and more affordable vehicles.

Electric vehicles made up 7.1% of car sales in January 2023, a jump from 4.3% during the same time period last year, InsideEVs reports(Opens in a new window). Total car sales, gas and electric, remained on-par with the past two years, meaning EVs are a standout growth area in the automotive industry.

Out of the 87,708 battery-powered registrations, 57% were Teslas and 43% were from non-Tesla brands, such as Chevrolet, Ford, and Volkswagen. While Tesla remains dominant, its market share has taken a noticeable dive from 74% just one year ago."

 

[HitchHiker71]

US Electric Vehicles Sales Hit New Record, And People Are Buying More Than Just Teslas

https://www.pcmag.com/news/us-ev-ca...d-and-people-are-buying-more-than-just-teslas

"Although gas-powered cars still dominate, EVs are gaining in popularity in the US, thanks in part to federal tax credits and more affordable vehicles.

Electric vehicles made up 7.1% of car sales in January 2023, a jump from 4.3% during the same time period last year, InsideEVs reports(Opens in a new window). Total car sales, gas and electric, remained on-par with the past two years, meaning EVs are a standout growth area in the automotive industry.

Out of the 87,708 battery-powered registrations, 57% were Teslas and 43% were from non-Tesla brands, such as Chevrolet, Ford, and Volkswagen. While Tesla remains dominant, its market share has taken a noticeable dive from 74% just one year ago."

Tesla's long term business plan has them dropping down to a 20% market share between now and 2030 basically. This is all in their plans already in other words - and fully expected as others race to bring BEVs to market ahead of the current market leader.

We have a Tesla on order effective 3/14/2023 - something we have been considering for quite some time now. We have been stockholders for about seven years now. This is our first foray into an actual Tesla product purchase - and I must say it takes some getting used to compared to the dealer model that everyone is familiar with in the marketplace. On a few occasions now I've literally had my finger on the cancel button due to some frustrations with the online ordering and particularly the guesswork over the delivery process. We worked hard to find a MY in existing inventory and put in our order on a matching vehicle with a specific status of "vehicle in transit" on 3/14/2023 with an EDD (Estimated Delivery Date) of 3/24-3/31, specifically because the IRS/Treasury is getting ready to provide more explicit guidance on the battery source components and assembly requirements that will impact how much of the $7500 tax credit purchasers are eligible to receive. These regs are due to change any day now - sometime in March as the IRS site clearly states - and the current legal regs state that when these changes are announced - the existing tax credit regs will change within two days of the announcement - so if you don't actually take delivery of your vehicle by the day after these changes are announced - you'll be subject to the new guidance - which is almost assuredly going to be a good bit less than the full $7500 federal tax credit. This is why we tried to find a vehicle in existing inventory - to take delivery before end of month and maximize our chances of keeping the full tax credit amount.

Fast forward to 3/21/2023 and no change to the EDD after a week gone by. Actually speaking to anyone at Tesla is next to impossible - the only method of communication that is persistently supported is text messaging - which as you might imagine is hit or miss at best. I texted asking for an update on delivery timeframe. I was then told the vehicle, which was manufactured in Freemont, CA, is still pinging in Freemont, CA. Ugh - then why is it even listed as "vehicle in transit"? Still no update today. Many many other folks who order through Tesla that had dates of late March - though in these cases a custom order not an order from existing inventory - are getting pushed out to late April or May or even June. These folks aren't exactly happy campers. To date, I've had what I would characterize as a pretty miserable customer experience during the pre-sales process with Tesla. I would caution anyone if you decide to purchase a Tesla via a custom order - just be aware that you'll get it when you get it and it could be months. Even if you order via existing inventory - don't necessarily expect to receive it any time soon - as is the case with my order. We're now being told it'll be early April timeframe, at best, due to transportation delays. This means we may well lose out on the full $7500 tax credit - which means dependent upon how much we lose - we may cancel our order. Tesla really needs to work on providing accurate information to their customers for delivery timeframes. The rule of thumb I've always worked by in pre-sales is to set the bar low on expectations - and then if you beat those low expectations - you come in ahead with the customer as you have exceeded expectations - Tesla seems to take the exact opposite approach - so I wonder about their leadership capabilities if this is how they do business. This is coming from a long time stockholder mind you - so I'm likely being especially hard on Tesla - but since this is literally the only way to purchase a new vehicle from this manufacturer - their processes have a long long way to go to deliver good customer experiences in my view - and with new BEVs entering the marketplace on a weekly basis right now - if Tesla doesn't get their act together - they are only going to accelerate their market share decline.

 

[easyrider]

Tesla's long term business plan has them dropping down to a 20% market share between now and 2030 basically. This is all in their plans already in other words - and fully expected as others race to bring BEVs to market ahead of the current market leader.

We have a Tesla on order effective 3/14/2023 - something we have been considering for quite some time now. We have been stockholders for about seven years now. This is our first foray into an actual Tesla product purchase - and I must say it takes some getting used to compared to the dealer model that everyone is familiar with in the marketplace. On a few occasions now I've literally had my finger on the cancel button due to some frustrations with the online ordering and particularly the guesswork over the delivery process. We worked hard to find a MY in existing inventory and put in our order on a matching vehicle with a specific status of "vehicle in transit" on 3/14/2023 with an EDD (Estimated Delivery Date) of 3/24-3/31, specifically because the IRS/Treasury is getting ready to provide more explicit guidance on the battery source components and assembly requirements that will impact how much of the $7500 tax credit purchasers are eligible to receive. These regs are due to change any day now - sometime in March as the IRS site clearly states - and the current legal regs state that when these changes are announced - the existing tax credit regs will change within two days of the announcement - so if you don't actually take delivery of your vehicle by the day after these changes are announced - you'll be subject to the new guidance - which is almost assuredly going to be a good bit less than the full $7500 federal tax credit. This is why we tried to find a vehicle in existing inventory - to take delivery before end of month and maximize our chances of keeping the full tax credit amount.

Fast forward to 3/21/2023 and no change to the EDD after a week gone by. Actually speaking to anyone at Tesla is next to impossible - the only method of communication that is persistently supported is text messaging - which as you might imagine is hit or miss at best. I texted asking for an update on delivery timeframe. I was then told the vehicle, which was manufactured in Freemont, CA, is still pinging in Freemont, CA. Ugh - then why is it even listed as "vehicle in transit"? Still no update today. Many many other folks who order through Tesla that had dates of late March - though in these cases a custom order not an order from existing inventory - are getting pushed out to late April or May or even June. These folks aren't exactly happy campers. To date, I've had what I would characterize as a pretty miserable customer experience during the pre-sales process with Tesla. I would caution anyone if you decide to purchase a Tesla via a custom order - just be aware that you'll get it when you get it and it could be months. Even if you order via existing inventory - don't necessarily expect to receive it any time soon - as is the case with my order. We're now being told it'll be early April timeframe, at best, due to transportation delays. This means we may well lose out on the full $7500 tax credit - which means dependent upon how much we lose - we may cancel our order. Tesla really needs to work on providing accurate information to their customers for delivery timeframes. The rule of thumb I've always worked by in pre-sales is to set the bar low on expectations - and then if you beat those low expectations - you come in ahead with the customer as you have exceeded expectations - Tesla seems to take the exact opposite approach - so I wonder about their leadership capabilities if this is how they do business. This is coming from a long time stockholder mind you - so I'm likely being especially hard on Tesla - but since this is literally the only way to purchase a new vehicle from this manufacturer - their processes have a long long way to go to deliver good customer experiences in my view - and with new BEVs entering the marketplace on a weekly basis right now - if Tesla doesn't get their act together - they are only going to accelerate their market share decline.

That was interesting HitchHiker71.

Even with all of the troubles I think Tesla is the best ev to but. Tesla makes about $9000 a car while Ford ev's are estimated to have lost about $9000 a car meaning Ford will not be able keep making ev's without big changes, imo.

Bill

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/22/ford-to-break-out-ev-business.html

Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner believes Ford could be incurring gross losses of about $9,000 per EV sold. The analyst expects Ford to reveal Thursday Model e operating losses of $6 billion for 2022. That’s after accounting for significant research and development investments — roughly 65% of the company’s total R&D — into the EV unit.

Charted: Tesla’s Unrivaled Profit Margins

This infographic compares Tesla's impressive profit margins to various Western and Chinese competitors.

www.visualcapitalist.com