This really comes down to how Marriott decides to get weeks to put into their points pool.
Boca,you are saying that they might be pulling those weeks within seconds of the 13 and 12 month marks. I think that depends if they are going to try to "stock up" the inventory before they have requests.
Let me build my model. Take a look, and tell me which way you think they will go.
For all of my examples, we have a resort with 100 units, and there are 10 weeks in the season. Those ten weeks are the last 3 weeks in June, 4 weeks in July and the first 3 weeks in August. That gives us 1000 weeks in the system. 10% of the owners in this resort will trade for points or MR points. I am assuming that Marriott does not own anything here for simplicity. So, 100 weeks available to grab for the points pool.
Model #1. Marriott will NOT wait for requests from Points owners in order to grab weeks. They will just grab what they consider to be the best weeks and then swap them when they need to.
In this example, they grab 50 units for 4th of July week at 13 months, and 50 units at 12 months.
In this example, all 100 of the 4th of July weeks are gone and none of the weeks owners got to have them.
Now, Marriott will get requests from Points owners for all of the 10 weeks in the season. How will they deal with that? Will they put weeks back into inventory and pull one out since they can only have 100 total weeks. Will they trade them with Interval (seems silly). Sure, their 4th of July is the strongest trader out there, but why would they want to deal with II when they can just pull the inventory that they want?
Model #2, which I think is more likely.
Same assumptions. I think they will basically allocate 10% of each week into their points pool and make it available for reservation by points owners. Then, they can break down the week into individual days for points users who do not want the whole week, rent out the weekends, etc.
Inevitably, they will get more requests for some weeks over others. In those cases, I think they will do some internal trading to match some of those requests. So, say that they did not get requests for 30% of the weeks in the first 3 weeks that they were available. So, they have some excess. They can give them back to the weeks pool if they want, but they might need to keep them in the pool for those owners who request them later. Marriott does not expect their points owners to only request at 13 and 12 months. In this situation, they might pull more than 10% of the 4th of July weeks, but I don't think it will be enough to matter that much since they will still have to take requests for the other summer weeks When we get to the point where 50% of weeks at a traditional resort are traded in for points or MR points, then the risk of Marriott taking more than its fair share of the prime weeks is a real concern. Until then, they will probably take whatever percentage they are entitled to, and a bit more. They already were doing that....but they would rent them out instead of giving them to points owners.