[Closed - new thread started] Will Hawaii Open by [OCTOBER???] [Please use this thread for all Hawaii Coronavirus discussions]

[csodjd]

there doesn't seem to be any practical way to quantify and regulate that.

Sure there is. It doesn't mean only a person with X net worth can come. All the need to do is move the needle. If today, say (pure hypothetical) their data shows that 25% of tourists spend on average $500/day or more, they can make a huge change by turning that into 40% that spend on average $500/day. You make it more expensive to stay in Hawaii and the needle will move. It may require a lot of art (and luck) to find the sweet spot. But it's very doable if that's what they want to do. Consider this: like London/Heathrow has done, imagine if they add a substantial tax (say 25%) on all flights arriving or departing. That alone would move the needle by making the trip too expensive for many (imagine the ordinary family of 4 or 5).

 

[luv_maui]

Just got an email from Lahaina Grill cancelling my dinner reservations for 7/30/2020. Now I really wonder if the quarantine will be lifted by 7/24/2020. We usually have dinner our last night at Lahaina Grill. Now I’m wondering if I should cancel my II exchange outside 60 days, so I can find a replacement as opposed to being limited within only 60 days.

 

[csodjd]

Just got an email from Lahaina Grill cancelling my dinner reservations for 7/30/2020. Now I really wonder if the quarantine will be lifted by 7/24/2020. We usually have dinner our last night at Lahaina Grill. Now I’m wondering if I should cancel my II exchange outside 60 days, so I can find a replacement as opposed to being limited within only 60 days.

I think it's really hard to EXPECT to be able to go there before August. There's a maybe out there, but also a probably not. I've got November reservations, for a wedding, and I'm still in the optimistically hoping stage, but not yet confident enough to say I'm expecting to be able to go.

However, in contrast, I will be going to Pinehurt, North Carolina, in early August for 11 days to play two golf tournaments. My only concern is on the food side. To ensure the safest possible flights I booked first class, window, first row. That ought to be about the minimum exposure to anyone (especially if the other seat is empty as it currently is). But I do expect that infection rate will be WAY down by August. IHMI projects about 75 active infections statewide by then.

There is a point where reason has to trump fear. By August I think I'm probably more likely to have a serious or fatal car accident driving to the airport than I am to end up with a serious or fatal COVID infection.

 

[slip]

Just got an email from Lahaina Grill cancelling my dinner reservations for 7/30/2020. Now I really wonder if the quarantine will be lifted by 7/24/2020. We usually have dinner our last night at Lahaina Grill. Now I’m wondering if I should cancel my II exchange outside 60 days, so I can find a replacement as opposed to being limited within only 60 days.

FWIW, I think you may as well cancel. I don’t see it happening in July.

 

[slip]

Sure there is. It doesn't mean only a person with X net worth can come. All the need to do is move the needle. If today, say (pure hypothetical) their data shows that 25% of tourists spend on average $500/day or more, they can make a huge change by turning that into 40% that spend on average $500/day. You make it more expensive to stay in Hawaii and the needle will move. It may require a lot of art (and luck) to find the sweet spot. But it's very doable if that's what they want to do. Consider this: like London/Heathrow has done, imagine if they add a substantial tax (say 25%) on all flights arriving or departing. That alone would move the needle by making the trip too expensive for many (imagine the ordinary family of 4 or 5).

These things you are bringing up would only limit the numbers. They mentioned low numbers that spend more. They will not be able to pick those people who spend more.


Plus finding that sweet spot you talk about could take a lot of time. Something many of these businesses won’t have. Even more so the longer the restrictions are in place.

I don’t see that working at all. We’ll just have to wait and see if they try to change anything.

 

[csodjd]

These things you are bringing up would only limit the numbers. They mentioned low numbers that spend more. They will not be able to pick those people who spend more.


Plus finding that sweet spot you talk about could take a lot of time. Something many of these businesses won’t have. Even more so the longer the restrictions are in place.

I don’t see that working at all. We’ll just have to wait and see if they try to change anything.

I too think time is important. No clear evidence that the Governor agrees with us. Hopefully he knows much better than us what they can and cannot handle.

But I disagree that what I suggested would ONLY limit the numbers. When it is more costly, you get people that can better afford it. You don't see a lot of people on a tight budget eating and staying at the Four Seasons. Or at the Lodge at Pebble Beach. I'd think of it this way. Imagine the passengers on two cruises. One is a regular cruise. The other, same ship, same itinerary, but with the bottom three room classes closed and empty. I believe in the latter you'd have fewer people and the average net worth of the passengers would be higher. Similarly, if it costs more to go to Hawaii, it just removes those for whom that is just too expensive.

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

To ensure the safest possible flights I booked first class, window, first row. That ought to be about the minimum exposure to anyone (especially if the other seat is empty as it currently is).

If there is a curtain or partition between FC and Coach, I would think the last row of FC seems to me to be the lowest potential exposure.

 

[Ken555]

I too think time is important. No clear evidence that the Governor agrees with us. Hopefully he knows much better than us what they can and cannot handle.

But I disagree that what I suggested would ONLY limit the numbers. When it is more costly, you get people that can better afford it. You don't see a lot of people on a tight budget eating and staying at the Four Seasons. Or at the Lodge at Pebble Beach. I'd think of it this way. Imagine the passengers on two cruises. One is a regular cruise. The other, same ship, same itinerary, but with the bottom three room classes closed and empty. I believe in the latter you'd have fewer people and the average net worth of the passengers would be higher. Similarly, if it costs more to go to Hawaii, it just removes those for whom that is just too expensive.

Curious...and what do you say to the mid-tier and lower hotels and resorts that won’t be able to attract anyone in this scenario? How does this help their businesses?


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[csodjd]

Curious...and what do you say to the mid-tier and lower hotels and resorts that won’t be able to attract anyone in this scenario? How does this help their businesses?

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Well, I think that problem/issue is broader than just those hotels. It extends to all the businesses that cater to the budget traveler and not the "Four Seasons" traveler. But all I can say is, this is what Hawaii (especially Maui it seems) is choosing for its direction going forward. You and I are not making that choice. If I had my choice I'd have half as many tourists at half the price (then I'd stay twice as long).

All I'm saying is that if that's the direction they want to go -- and everything that's coming out of the public statements about restarting tourism seems to indicate that IS the direction they want to go -- they can probably pull it off. Others don't think they can. And maybe they can't in the long run. But it seems they're going to try. And given the impact of COVID on the state and county budgets, adding taxes directed at tourists seems like a really easy place for them to start their budget recovery AND move in the direction they want to go.

 

[slip]

Curious...and what do you say to the mid-tier and lower hotels and resorts that won’t be able to attract anyone in this scenario? How does this help their businesses?


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That’s what I was thinking and what about all the ones that would be empty now.

Also know a lot of people who have money and many of them are frugal anddon’t spend money.

csodjd
I’m just not buying that it’s a viable option. We’ll agree to disagree.

 

[Ken555]

Well, I think that problem/issue is broader than just those hotels. It extends to all the businesses that cater to the budget traveler and not the "Four Seasons" traveler. But all I can say is, this is what Hawaii (especially Maui it seems) is choosing for its direction going forward. You and I are not making that choice. If I had my choice I'd have half as many tourists at half the price (then I'd stay twice as long).

All I'm saying is that if that's the direction they want to go -- and everything that's coming out of the public statements about restarting tourism seems to indicate that IS the direction they want to go -- they can probably pull it off. Others don't think they can. And maybe they can't in the long run. But it seems they're going to try. And given the impact of COVID on the state and county budgets, adding taxes directed at tourists seems like a really easy place for them to start their budget recovery AND move in the direction they want to go.

Well, I haven’t read nor watched everything out of Hawaii recently, but I didn’t see anything specific about how they intend to make this happen. You and others here seem to be assuming they will do it via a tax or something similar. Sure, that’s possible. I just doubt it.

I just don’t see it happening fairly without accommodating all businesses, and as you mention that’s more than just the mid-tier and lower hotels.


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[Ken555]

Also, if Hawaii did impose a significant tax or surcharge on visitors I can see bad press for years. It’s exactly the wrong message to send during a crisis. This is a time to be inclusive, not exclusive. Perhaps a lottery system or something similar... and if they are going to force businesses to operate for a long time at about half capacity (?) then those businesses would, I assume, need to receive additional support from other sources.


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[linsj]

That’s what I was thinking and what about all the ones that would be empty now.

Also know a lot of people who have money and many of them are frugal anddon’t spend money.

csodjd
I’m just not buying that it’s a viable option. We’ll agree to disagree.

And some of us don't have much money but have learned to play the points and miles and gift card game well. I can do 5-star travel on a 2-star budget, especially in Hawaii. In fact, I can spend two weeks on Oahu for less money than I'd spend at home.

 

[csodjd]

And some of us don't have much money but have learned to play the points and miles and gift card game well. I can do 5-star travel on a 2-star budget, especially in Hawaii. In fact, I can spend two weeks on Oahu for less money than I'd spend at home.

As I commented earlier, they don't have to eliminate the budget traveler, they just have to move the needle such that they increase the spender and decrease the budget traveler. For some reason people here think that this is an all-or-nothing proposition. That the idea they are floating requires only big spenders come to Hawaii. That's silly and reflects a weak understanding of macro economics. All they have to do is shift the percentages. Maybe today 10% of tourists spend more than $1000/day when they are in Hawaii and 20% spend less than $200/day (just a hypothetical, I have no idea the numbers). Change that to 20%. and 10% and you have altered the economic landscape, increased government revenue, increased revenue to businesses, etc. You've accomplished a huge change.

But, whatever. I'm only responding to what politicians in Hawaii have said publicly several times they intend to pursue in their reopening. Some think they can succeed, others don't. I really don't care one way or the other. I'm much more interested in WHEN they open than whether they are going to try and change the demographics of their tourism industry.

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

Can the Hawaiian Government force an "up-market" change to tourism? The answer is yes.
Will it best serve the interests of existing Hawaiian residents? That is unknown.

How to do it? State level taxes. (It is a truism that tourist are easy to tax. They can't vote.) What sort of taxes?
Per head arrival taxes for airlines.
Much higher hotel taxes.
Much higher rental taxes on cars. (With lower taxes on people who can prove residency.)

Do I like any of these possibilities? No, but that doesn't make them impossible, or even unlikely.
Use the money to encourage other non-tourism industries.

Note: This will drive low end tourist businesses into insolvency. But, I suspect, that is already happening. How excess buildings will be repurposed is unknown at this stage.

Will this end the Hawaiian economy? Short term yes, long term is unknown.

High end tourism will not be discouraged, most likely it will be encouraged. Being able to afford to go to Hawaii will once again become a status symbol.
An example is Switzerland. A very rich small country with both a long standing tourist industry, and a thriving ex-pat scene. But, believe me, it isn't cheap to go there, or to live there as an ex-pat.
Hawaii might try to model themselves after Switzerland, with tropical beaches instead of mountains.

Would it work. Who knows?

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

An add-on that probably would not be thought of in the government taxing process.

Make the taxes "spendable" on local consumable purchases.

Look at it this way. I go to Hawaii as a tourist. I am being charged $1,500 in taxes for the privilege. I get to Hawaii and am given a debit card with that $1,500 in taxes. I can spend it at any place in Hawaii, for things like food, local entertainment, and any other tourist related businesses in Hawaii. It expires at the end of the trip. You use it or lose it. (Don't spend it, it reverts to the state government.)

Provides a free market incentive to spend in Hawaii, and "cuts out the middleman" of government incentives.; while at the same time provides businesses incentives to meet the tourist needs (the best restaurants get the most business, ect.)

(How much do I get? Well, what are the added taxes mentioned in my previous post. They have to be paid in advance, so that is where you get the number. . .)

 

[csodjd]

That is not the plan: the Hawaii State Legislature approved the funding for testing equipment to be installed in Hawaii airports last week, and that was posted in this thread a few days ago. They can implement Hawaii airport testing fairly quickly, but, it's not practical to require pre-flight testing at this point in time, because it would require all other states and countries with flights to Hawaii, to agree to it.

Also - the governor has already clearly stated that he doesn't expect to open tourism this summer, and that it will be the last step. There is no mystery here. But maybe you are just holding onto the hope that something will happen to open Hawaii this summer, and probably a lot of people are. I think it's very unlikely, and the most prudent thing to do (if you are still holding reservations) it so start working on cancelling, and not wait too long.

I don't know if it is "the plan" or not, but the Lt. Gov. said it just last week.

"Hawaii’s lieutenant governor and a member of its congressional delegation on Wednesday floated the idea of COVID-19 testing for any arriving air passenger prior to travel as a condition to reopen the tourism industry."

And they didn't stop there. "U.S. Rep. Ed Case, a Hawaii Democrat, went a step further, sending a letter to Federal Aviation Administration Administrator Steve Dickson, seeking the agency’s 'cooperation in confirming Hawaii’s ability to impose and enforce conditions on air travel to Hawaii which are critical to ensuring (a) the health of Hawaii’s residents and visitors and (b) the safe recovery of Hawaii’s economy and in particular our travel and tourism industry. This could include requiring testing of all intended passengers (including crew) on any direct air travel to Hawaii before boarding,' Case wrote. 'Such testing could include at least fever testing and, as available, on-site rapid COVID-19 testing, as now required by international airlines such as Emirates on some flights.'”

‘Travel with aloha’: COVID-19 testing floated for visitors arriving by air - West Hawaii Today

Hawaii’s lieutenant governor and a member of its congressional delegation on Wednesday floated the idea of COVID-19 testing for any arriving air passenger prior to travel as a condition to reopen the tourism industry.

www.westhawaiitoday.com

 

[beachlynn]

Sure there is. It doesn't mean only a person with X net worth can come. All the need to do is move the needle. If today, say (pure hypothetical) their data shows that 25% of tourists spend on average $500/day or more, they can make a huge change by turning that into 40% that spend on average $500/day. You make it more expensive to stay in Hawaii and the needle will move. It may require a lot of art (and luck) to find the sweet spot. But it's very doable if that's what they want to do. Consider this: like London/Heathrow has done, imagine if they add a substantial tax (say 25%) on all flights arriving or departing. That alone would move the needle by making the trip too expensive for many (imagine the ordinary family of 4 or 5).

That seems pretty fantastical and wishful thinking. How do you tell businesses, when they are allowed to open up, that they need to move their prices up? It is called free Market. Sure maybe an airport can add a tax or the gov make the VAT tax higher but I would imagine the Hotel industry would push back or even sue. We know back in during the Recession that the ridiculous Maui Mayor put an unreasonable property tax on Timeshares, specifically Westin, which has been reversed and is winding it's way through the appeal process I believe.
If I own a little surf shop or a restaurant and I want to give reasonable prices then how is someone in the Maui Gov going to tell me what I need to charge? Everybody can't be Merriman's or Mama's. Also, locals go to restaurants and stores so you are taking a certain population of locals who may not make a ton of money and price them out of some businesses. It is really sad that you think it is a good idea that families couldn't save up for the trip of a lifetime. Nobody has any idea if that family is spending $500 a day vs say a Timeshare owner or VRBO renter who just sits on the beach and hits Costco and consumes very little in terms of restaurant or activities and shopping. I own 2 weeks in Hawaii and the Gov of Maui hasn't a clue what I spend.

 

[jabberwocky]

Can the Hawaiian Government force an "up-market" change to tourism? The answer is yes.
Will it best serve the interests of existing Hawaiian residents? That is unknown.

How to do it? State level taxes. (It is a truism that tourist are easy to tax. They can't vote.) What sort of taxes?
Per head arrival taxes for airlines.
Much higher hotel taxes.
Much higher rental taxes on cars. (With lower taxes on people who can prove residency.)

High end tourism will not be discouraged, most likely it will be encouraged. Being able to afford to go to Hawaii will once again become a status symbol.
An example is Switzerland. A very rich small country with both a long standing tourist industry, and a thriving ex-pat scene. But, believe me, it isn't cheap to go there, or to live there as an ex-pat.
Hawaii might try to model themselves after Switzerland, with tropical beaches instead of mountains.

Would it work. Who knows?

The only problem with this line of thinking is that Switzerland generally has some of the lowest taxes globablly. If I lived in my home canton of Zurich my taxes would be 1/5 of what I pay here in Canada. Relative to the rest of Europe the VAT is very low and tourists/non-residents can get it refunded for larger purchases they are taking out of the country (very handy if you are buying a watch or handbag).

Increasing taxes on tourists will not help draw more tourists unless those increased taxes are used to make the island experience better (think better beaches, roads, attractive shopping areas, low crime) for those tourists - otherwise it is just a deadweight loss. As a marketing professor I know says - the best way to signal quality for consumers is to consistently increase your price but at the same time increase the perceived value they receive.

 

[csodjd]

That seems pretty fantastical and wishful thinking. How do you tell businesses, when they are allowed to open up, that they need to move their prices up? It is called free Market. Sure maybe an airport can add a tax or the gov make the VAT tax higher but I would imagine the Hotel industry would push back or even sue. We know back in during the Recession that the ridiculous Maui Mayor put an unreasonable property tax on Timeshares, specifically Westin, which has been reversed and is winding it's way through the appeal process I believe.
If I own a little surf shop or a restaurant and I want to give reasonable prices then how is someone in the Maui Gov going to tell me what I need to charge? Everybody can't be Merriman's or Mama's. Also, locals go to restaurants and stores so you are taking a certain population of locals who may not make a ton of money and price them out of some businesses. It is really sad that you think it is a good idea that families couldn't save up for the trip of a lifetime. Nobody has any idea if that family is spending $500 a day vs say a Timeshare owner or VRBO renter who just sits on the beach and hits Costco and consumes very little in terms of restaurant or activities and shopping. I own 2 weeks in Hawaii and the Gov of Maui hasn't a clue what I spend.

All I'm hearing is that you're unfamiliar with statistics and data modeling, and equally unfamiliar with how governments use their taxing and fee powers to influence conduct. It's really, really, not hard to influence the behavior of tourists without harming, and even benefiting, residents.

 

[Tamaradarann]

There is information in what is stated, and information in what is chosen NOT to be stated. That he views a plan not addressing tourism to be a plan to reopen Hawaii (how can a state be reopened when its largest industry is not included?) tells us all something about his thoughts about tourism generally. When thinking as a tourist about future planning, I see it almost as informative that he didn't see it necessary to even address tourism in his plan as if he had, especially since you can allow salons and barber shops to open on a lot shorter notice and ramp-up time than you can tourism. If anyone is planning July, or August, or possibly even September, I think the Governor's Q&A and his plan, and the decision not to address tourism in it, is "travel news" and that it tells you not to get your hopes up too much.

I agree with you that is why I stated in this forum before that a date should have been set for the ending of the 14 day quarantine for the tourists. Vacation planning does take time and trips to Hawaii are expensive so more planning is involved than many other vacations. Furthermore, July and August are prime vacation months for people with school children and those employed at school such as teachers. If those summer vacation dollars are not spent in Hawaii in July or August they will not be spent in Hawaii this year. They either will be spent somewhere else or they will be saved for next year.

 

[LannyPC]

a plan not addressing tourism to be a plan to reopen Hawaii (how can a state be reopened when its largest industry is not included?)

This is what I've been wondering. Many businesses in HI depend primarily on tourist dollars. I'm assuming that these businesses right now are seriously hurting and some are on the verge of going under. I was just wondering if any of these businesses are screaming to someway, somehow ease or lift these restrictions on incoming travelers so as to support their businesses. Has anyone heard such outcry from such business owners?

Disclaimer: I'm not stirring a debate as to when these restrictions should end or what the government should do about it. I'm asking if anyone has heard any outcry from such business owners to quickly get these restrictions eased or lifted.

 

[DEROS]

If anyone was coming to Oahu for 4th of July fireworks at Ala Moana Beach Park/Magic Island, it was announced today it will be cancelled.

I look forward to this every year since Hawaii outlawed fireworks. I guess this will be one quiet 4th of July. Naw.... Who am I kidding. Illegal fireworks will sky rocket in Oahu this year.

 

[slip]

If anyone was coming to Oahu for 4th of July fireworks at Ala Moana Beach Park/Magic Island, it was announced today it will be cancelled.

I look forward to this every year since Hawaii outlawed fireworks. I guess this will be one quiet 4th of July. Naw.... Who am I kidding. Illegal fireworks will sky rocket in Oahu this year.

I was surprised how much I saw for New Years. It was awesome.

 

[amy241]

Social media proves a powerful tool in cracking down on quarantine violators

State lawmakers are pushing for tougher enforcement of the 14-day traveler quarantine, which has been extended through June 30.

www.hawaiinewsnow.com