[2020] A little stock market sense

[emeryjre]

Right, keep the big elephant out of this thread !!

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If you want to open a discussion on another social media platform such as Twitter, Bluesky, Threads, Etc., Etc. let me know the platform and your username
Will be happy to join in
No need to get TUG involved in the debate

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

Please, let's have some decorum here. Civility and joy of life are the major reasons many of us are here.

 

[TUGBrian]

i swear its the same people every time who simply have the inability to not inject politics into every part of their daily discussion.

take it elsewhere...final warning

 

[WaikikiFirst]

Tariffs will increase interest rates because prices rise.

LOL. I luv when people's idea of "basic economics" is completely opposite of Mr Market's idea.
7 days ago, US 10yr bond yielded 4.36%. Now it yields 3.99% and got down to 3.91% this AM. I guess Mr Market doesn't agree.

U.S. will ultimately pay more for debt if tariffs hold

 

[WaikikiFirst]

"Economics" education and career experience for everyone. Put it on the table.

 

[WaikikiFirst]

Civility and joy of life are the major reasons many of us are here

I get you're meaning, but there is nothing civil or joyful about the stock mkt. BTDT! You want to win? Be neutral and ruthless.
Or, just talk politics like the Usual Suspects. There must be an uneducated link around here somewhere

 

[CalGalTraveler]

LOL. I luv when people's idea of "basic economics" is completely opposite of Mr Market's idea.
7 days ago, US 10yr bond yielded 4.36%. Now it yields 3.99% and got down to 3.91% this AM. I guess Mr Market doesn't agree.

That's because other market factors are weighing into interest rates such as the strength of the dollar. Short term fluctuations.

 

[WaikikiFirst]

other market factors are weighing into interest rates such as the strength of the dollar due to loss of confidence

LOL. That de-escalated quickly.. It went from "basic" & fundamental to complicated & short-term really quickly. And, wait for it, the USD index is almost exactly where it was in early November. Got any more incorrect statements to make based on your politics, rather than a real understanding of either economics or markets?

 

[CalGalTraveler]

@WaikikiFirst No politics just simple economics. Ever heard of the Fisher equation?

Fisher Equation

The Fisher equation is a concept in economics that describes the relationship between nominal and real interest rates under the effect of inflation.

corporatefinanceinstitute.com

 

[CalGalTraveler]

@WaikikiFirst Not one reputable economist believes that prices will go down after tariffs. It is a sales tax. Even the Wall St Journal calls it. If you believe prices will go down because manufacturing executives will suddenly invest in 10-15 year ROI capital plants with such uncertainty, I have a bridge to sell you.

There was a USA based copper mining CEO on CNBC earlier this week. Said it takes 20 years to bring on a new mine in the USA. The CEO stated that they are only incrementally investing in existing mines in the USA. They have mines in other countries which will make up for additional expected demand. Perhaps they will find more lucrative markets in other countries and not repatriate the copper? Arbitraging goods is what rational executives and boards do.

Dream on.

 

[WaikikiFirst]

wait for it, the USD index is almost exactly where it was in early November.
Got any more incorrect statements to make based on your politics, rather than a real understanding of either economics or markets?

 

[WaikikiFirst]

Not one reputable economist believes that prices will go down after tariffs. It is a sales tax.

LOL. You just figuring this out????? I love people who say stuff like that, as if they just surpassed Einstein's General Theory. "it is a sales tax ... it is a tax ... same ... same"
Wow, they figured it out!
Speaking as a resident, people who live in CA never met a tax they don't like ... til now I guess. Big Surprise

 

[CalGalTraveler]

@WaikikiFirst LOL...You are called out on missing basic econ principles (seriously you really don't know what the Fisher Equation is?!?) and you are refuted by non-partisan reputable sources.

You call the WSJ comments on tariffs politics? Gimme a break. Just because someone disagrees with your faulty economic worldview does not make it "political"

BTW...I believe you live in California. Does that mean I can ASSUME your political stance? You know nothing about mine.

 

[WaikikiFirst]

You know nothing about mine

everybody knows yours. It infests almost everything you write, esp in this thread.

you really don't know what the Fisher Equation is?

Yeah, suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuure. I saw it once. I visited the Hall of Fame of Equations. It was hanging on the wall right next to the
FISHER-PRICE Equation: 1 + 1 = 2
It keeps good company.

You are called out on missing basic econ principles

Yeah suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuure. And when I explained that the bond mkt disagrees with your "basic" economics, you quickly back-pedaled to say basically
"well, it is more complicated than that and I'll be proven right someday. Click my heels"

 

[pedro47]

The stock market is in a bear market right now.
Fear is not good for the stock market. IMHO

 

[CalGalTraveler]

@WaikikiFirst LOL... No point in trying to reason with your voodoo logic trying to disprove Adam Smith and 200+ years of economic thinking and interest rates.

If you haven't noticed the Dow is down 1700 2200 today. Your so-called "Mr. Markets" have spoken. This is not politics. This is fact with trillions in 401ks wiped out.

Good luck and I hope you don't lose your shirt.

 

[WaikikiFirst]

voodoo logic trying to disprove Adam Smith

LOL. So now Adam Smith has something to do with it? LOL. Be careful. You know Calis hate Adam Smith, don't you? Calis. It is WILD!
This is like when a guy I met in a group of Calis incorrectly stated both the origin & meaning of The Tragedy of the Commons. He seemed to be a prof of "Environmental Economics" in SF, whatever that school is called. His brain had been pickled by the need to constantly toe the socialist / Cali line. He incorrectly stated both the origin & meaning of The Tragedy of the Commons. When I corrected him, his only response was "I'm a professor." My only response was "And THERE is the tragedy ... for your students."
I will bet you cannot correctly state Adam Smith's single most important contribution to economic thinking in a single, concise, correct sentence. No looking it up.

I hope you don't lose your shirt.

Considering I know the tailor far far far better than you do, I'm fine. I no longer NEED to worry about it. Since I stopped needing to "beat the market", when SP500 rises 40% in a yr or so, I underperform. When it falls 20% in a yr or so, I KICK BUTT. THis is, what, the 4th time in 25 yrs.
When SP500 lost about 45% after the Tech Bubble burst, I lost 14%. Want to know how much I made DURING the Tech Bubble?
Lose my shirt! That is for people who get all caught up in the emotions.
Did you happen to notice that I am not the one complaining about stocks falling?

 

[CalGalTraveler]

@WaikikiFirst your post about my affection for taxes proves you know nothing about my background so don't even try.

BTW...I have been harvesting cash on the sidelines. We are safe.

Have you no empathy for those who just lost a big chunk of their 401k? Where do you expect consumer demand to come from if 401ks are dry and jobs are lost?

 

[pedro47]

My Broker stated it is only paper. Stop worrying.

 

[Brett]

If you want to open a discussion on another social media platform such as Twitter, Bluesky, Threads, Etc., Etc. let me know the platform and your username
Will be happy to join in
No need to get TUG involved in the debate

Not much "debate" here, just the brutal facts. I suppose the "debate" is why

 

[Brett]

My Broker stated it is only paper. Stop worrying.

Yes, it's just paper losses unless one sells. The market should come back some day ...... (eventually)

 

[RENTER]

VBAL was down 2.81% today
FBALX was down 4.09% today
My stupid little plan because I do not know the rules of investing was up 0.30% today

Have a nice day

 

[easyrider]

Has implementing across the board tariffs ever resulted in a stronger economy in the long term? I understand some targeted tariffs have been successful, but tariffs like this have lead to disastrous results in the past.

Kurt

I'm thinking it will work to bring manufacturing back to the USA. It already has from the looks of it. I'm my state, Washington, aluminum smelting and lumber were big industries until nafta. Both of these industries disappeared because it was cheaper to buy Canadian products.

Bill

 

[PigsDad]

I'm thinking it will work to bring manufacturing back to the USA. It already has from the looks of it. I'm my state, Washington, aluminum smelting and lumber were big industries until nafta. Both of these industries disappeared because it was cheaper to buy Canadian products.

I have no doubt it will bring some manufacturing back, but at what cost? If American companies can only compete when there are 10-25% tariffs, that means it costs that much more to produce in the US vs. somewhere else. Guess who pays that cost? US consumers. Do you see US wages increasing 25% in order for consumers to be able to afford those same items as before, without the tariffs? And if wages do increase by 25%, then guess what? The items produced at these US factories are going to cost even more to pay for that increased labor cost.

This is a total *bleep* show. It has never made an economy stronger before; it won't now.

Kurt

 

[emeryjre]

I'm thinking it will work to bring manufacturing back to the USA. It already has from the looks of it. I'm my state, Washington, aluminum smelting and lumber were big industries until nafta. Both of these industries disappeared because it was cheaper to buy Canadian products.

Bill

in a report on why the Intalco Aluminum operation was shut down, the major producer of Aluminum imported into the US was actually Russian

Smelting in the Northwest

In spring 2020,Alcoa announced it was mothballing — "curtailing" in industry-speak — its Ferndale operation due to weakening demand and falling metal prices. Soon thereafter, aluminum prices rebounded and they recently reached record highs. A spokesman for the Pittsburgh-based aluminum giant previously told public radio that Alcoa would keep the Ferndale smelter idled though because of numerous shortcomings that limit "its competitiveness for the long term."

The spot price of aluminum has surged in 2022, partly because of war-related sanctions on Russia. Friday's closing price on the London Metal Exchange was $3,502 per metric ton, which is over 60% higher than a year ago and more than double the price when Alcoa shut down the Ferndale smelter in 2020. Russia is a major producer of the shiny metal in the global context.

Intalco supporters point out that the Ferndale smelter could replace 100% of the aluminum imported to the U.S. from Russia last year. According to figures compiled by market research firm Harbor Aluminum, the U.S. imported 215,000 tons of unwrought aluminum from Russia in 2021. That volume is in the same ballpark as the annual output of the Intalco smelter at full production of 240,000 MT/year.


Here is the link to the full report:

'Green’ aluminum inches closer in Northwest, if only they can power the last remaining smelter

The push to restart the last remaining aluminum smelter in the Pacific Northwest got a boost this week as well as absorbed a setback. The prospective new owners of the idled Alcoa Intalco Works smelter near Ferndale, Washington, secured $10 million in taxpayer support to upgrade the decades-old...

www.nwnewsnetwork.org

Another major problem was the amount of energy the smelter needed and wanted at a discount
The power needs represent the demand of 40% of Seattle

In case you missed it
There were no new tariffs implemented on Russia at this week's announcements