[2020] A little stock market sense

[am1]

If I offended you because you think I was to rough on teachers, I like to thank one ex-teacher. That would be Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota. He wants others to be excited as he is that Tesla stock is dropping despite the fact that it is damaging Minnesota's pension plan.

I thank him for doing that because it drives up my TSLS which I am taking the profits and parking it into a treasury and dollar cost averaging by playing catch a falling knife back into TSLA.

I would be annoyed if he used any of his influence to drive up stocks the mpp owns.

 

[Brett]

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/...tocks-are-starting-to-look-elsewhere-ddacd1e8

The case for European stocks got a jolt Friday when the German government approved a plan to inject up to €1 trillion, equivalent to $1.09 trillion, into the nation’s economy

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[WorldT]

And the TSLA craze is back!

 

[Brett]

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/st...o-scared-of-striking-out-sGVOELRj4WxGz8XVByto

The “Babe Ruth Effect"

"Too many asset managers get paid like the New York Yankees and then play like the Bad News Bears.

"Shocking stats by Arizona State business professor Hendrik Bessembinder show why it matters. He tracked thousands of U.S. stocks from 1925 to the present day. Just 86 accounted for half of the wealth created. A whopping 96% did no better than investing in Treasury bills. None of us are Warren Buffett. Luckily, there’s a cheap and easy way to own all of those rare winners and to do so for long enough with a large enough stake. It’s called an index fund. Indexes don’t know any better than to buy longshots and then hang on when they get uncomfortably large and frothy.

"Many active investors are overly fearful of being wrong so they’re late to buy stocks that have great potential. Even when they find winners, they’re often afraid to let those bets ride and become a big part of their portfolio.

 

[PigsDad]

Here comes more inflation, a lackluster GDP growth and possible period of stagflation. Is anyone changing your short or long term investment plans?

Kurt

 

[emeryjre]

The moves of late are based on the belief that the current direction of fiscal policy will be negative for the economy
There are those that believe the moves in fiscal policy will be good for the economy
It will take proof of how the moves in fiscal policy actually impact growth, inflation, and interest rates to set the new direction for the stock market
It will take proof that the projections in reduced corporate profit are actually happening for the markets to continue to sell off (IMHO)
I have certainly reduced my risk in the stock market in terms of holdings
It has been a great trading environment with the volatility
It is a stomach churning environment for long term holders

 

[Brett]

The moves of late are based on the belief that the current direction of fiscal policy will be negative for the economy
There are those that believe the moves in fiscal policy will be good for the economy
It will take proof of how the moves in fiscal policy actually impact growth, inflation, and interest rates to set the new direction for the stock market
It will take proof that the projections in reduced corporate profit are actually happening for the markets to continue to sell off (IMHO)
I have certainly reduced my risk in the stock market in terms of holdings
It has been a great trading environment with the volatility
It is a stomach churning environment for long term holders

For long term holders of stock index funds it's not so much "stomach churning" as looking at stupid {politically redacted}
I've been in the market for over 45 years and my "40%" in short term bonds and CD's and other interest bearing investments will cover the next couple of years of "turbulence". My stock index investment strategy will not change

.

 

[letsgobobby]

Here comes more inflation, a lackluster GDP growth and possible period of stagflation. Is anyone changing your short or long term investment plans?

Kurt

no. i am about 75% stock index funds and 25% bond index funds with a tilt toward small, value, and international stocks and will continue to do that until my desire or ability to take risk has substantially changed. this is likely the allocation we'll keep into and through retirement.

short term economic conditions do not impact my investing plans. only once in 40 years of investing did I substantially change my investments due to valuations, and that was during the dot com bubble when I sat out much of the stock market insanity from the late 90s til ~ 2002. even though that was a successful market timing event it was very stressful, took a lot of time and energy, and in the end because I was early to get out I didn't really do much better than if I had just bought and held. since then the only selling i've done is to rebalance out of stocks. i have some stock ETFs or MFs i've held for 25+ years which have gone up 5-10x.

this is a simple, low cost, and low stress way to reach financial independence. every two weeks i just buy more. otherwise i only check my investments once a quarter.

 

[Brett]

Yesterday was some kind of national holiday ?? ............

 

[WorldT]

View attachment 108631
View attachment 108632


Yesterday was some kind of national holiday ?? ............

Somebody spoke and the market reacted. You know... normal stuff.

 

[WaikikiFirst]

about that EFFICIENT Market
read this from a Sell-Side Wall St analyst last night, ...almost fainted ... I know this is true ... but to ADMIT it???? What a career! What an ECHO CHAMBER! What a bunch of emotional children being led around by CEOs, CFOs, Fear & Greed!
"Over the course of a year, we spend most of our time talking to our institutional investor clients. The last two weeks of each quarter are the exceptions; it’s then that we set aside time to speak with IR teams at our coverage companies."

That head-in-the-sand echo chamber is supposed to be "hard to beat"????????

 

[WaikikiFirst]

Somebody spoke and the market reacted.

Fear & Greed; you know, the core ingredients for an EFFICIENT Market

 

[WaikikiFirst]

who says the markets aren't fun? Read this one on the newswire

What the Restoration Hardware CEO Really Thinks of Tariffs -- WSJ​

 

[DrQ]

I liquidated my gold ETF at a profit and am going bargain hunting.

 

[RENTER]

If anybody has a problem with this piece of advice I share to help others, then they are probably a paid broker or financial advisor or just someone who likes to argue.

If you are paying someone to manage your money and they just put you in a 60/40 balanced account, then you are being ripped off. They are just collecting a commission going thru the motions.

Today VBAL fell 3%
Fidelity's Balance fund fell 2.97%

But if they split it up like I have always been saying
Vanguards Bond Index was up 0.52%

These are treasury ETFs
UTWO was up 0.37%
UTRE was up 0.60 %
UFIV was up 0.94%
USVN was up 1.10%
UTEN was up 1.03%
UTWY was up 0.86%
UTHY was up 0.65%
SCHP was up 0.60%

So, if you are paying them why are they not splitting it up like i do in order to protect you?

I was up 0.19% today because of my treasuries and bears. Consumer Staples Index was also up.

 

[Brett]

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https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/...pain-stocks-bonds.html?searchResultPosition=1


"Holding plenty of bonds and including stakes in international stock markets were keys to stability and, maybe, even modestly positive returns in the first three months of the year.

"with a well-diversified portfolio containing low-cost index funds that track just about all tradable global stock and bond markets. That kind of portfolio did rather well in the last quarter, at least compared with domestic stock funds."

 

[RENTER]

watching a US president intentionally tank the stock market is pretty astounding.

because he is saving us money. They have to refinance about 7 trillion in treasury bonds coming due this year. The previous Adim. chose to not take advantage of the lower interest rates at the time by issuing long term bonds. Instead, they sold short term bonds.

So what he is doing is lowering the interest rates so he can issue long term bonds. The 10 year is now under 4% Oil prices are dropping and new high paying jobs are coming with the nearly 4 trillion in new investments coming.

So, I applaud what he is doing and shed no tears for those who were not diversified or did not have a safety net. If people are as smart as they claim to be, they know this is a repeat of 2020 and will not last long and it is a good buying opportunity.

Anyone who knows their political history, people have short memories, and it is best to have the pain for long term gain at the beginning of an administration.

 

[PigsDad]

Has implementing across the board tariffs ever resulted in a stronger economy in the long term? I understand some targeted tariffs have been successful, but tariffs like this have lead to disastrous results in the past.

Kurt

 

[Brett]

because he is saving us money. They have to refinance about 7 trillion in treasury bonds coming due this year. The previous Adim. chose to not take advantage of the lower interest rates at the time by issuing long term bonds. Instead, they sold short term bonds.

So what he is doing is lowering the interest rates so he can issue long term bonds. The 10 year is now under 4% Oil prices are dropping and new high paying jobs are coming with the nearly 4 trillion in new investments coming.

So, I applaud what he is doing and shed no tears for those who were not diversified or did not have a safety net. If people are as smart as they claim to be, they know this is a repeat of 2020 and will not last long and it is a good buying opportunity.

Anyone who knows their political history, people have short memories, and it is best to have the pain for long term gain at the beginning of an administration.

That's the ticket
It's a diabolical scheme to lower interest rates so the economy will go BOOM !

 

[emeryjre]

Markets go up
Markets go down
As a Trader, the current situation is an opportunity to make money
As a Long-Term Investor, it is a pullback in an uptrend
Let's try to keep executive action out of this thread

 

[WorldT]

Markets go up
Markets go down
As a Trader, the current situation is an opportunity to make money
As a Long-Term Investor, it is a pullback in an uptrend
Let's try to keep executive action out of this thread

The 2020 pull back or crash was as a result of pandemic induced fear. I wonder what triggered this pull back.

 

[WaikikiFirst]

about that EFFICIENT Market

speaking fo EFFICIENT Markets, here's a fun one.
Today's opening, LT interest rates fall by 10 bps or more for 2nd day in a row. THis is v good for homebuilders. Remember that GRBK I mentioned before. At the open, GRBK was down 4% to below $54. So, I bought some. Not a lot. But hey, take what Mr Market gives you. Now, it is up almost 4% to $58.
Love those EFFICIENT Markets

 

[RENTER]

LOL. So true. Every time I think "WTF is he doing?", I come back to that explanation.
Still, ... I don't remember this being the main topic back in November. I know I don't pay much attention to elections, but did I miss it?

Yes but he was not saying it. Those around him were saying it.

 

[RENTER]

That's the ticket
It's a diabolical scheme to lower interest rates so the economy will go BOOM !

The 1987 crash did not hurt the economy and to be honest that is what I want. Get it over with quickly. I can't talk politics or i will get suspended again. But when one party brags about the stock market, the other party says the stock market is not the economy.

Today's jobs report shows an increase in the number of private jobs. It is not yet picking up the government workers laid off. But they should not be laid off to long if they want to work. Is there not a teachers shortage? Are not manufactures saying they need workers?

 

[CalGalTraveler]

Basic economics: Inflation is a component of interest rates. Tariffs will increase interest rates because prices rise.

If interest rates drop while tariffs are in effect, that means that the economy will be in a world of hurt. That means that revenue will be down because no one has jobs to pay taxes or buy goods. This is why the markets are going nuts.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/04/powell-sees-tariffs-raising-inflation-and-says-fed-will-wait-before-further-rate-moves.html