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[2020] A little stock market sense

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My critics can gloat and laugh today. My little 0.37% gain today trailed all 3 indexes and VBAL which was up 0.84%. But I am not upset. Anything but. It did what it was supposed to do. Beat my 0.04% daily goal and keep moving forward.

All 11 sectors were up today.

My biggest 3 bull winners today
1. XRT up 6.81%
2. TSLA up 5.16%
3. COIN up 4.93%

I had only one bear winner today which will confuse people because it is the bear to XRT. That is EMTY which was up 0.93% today. Bear and Bull ETF's do not always work opposite of each other but over the long term they do.
 
from the Dept of "OMG, Such An EFFICIENT :ROFLMAO:Market" Dept: yesterday at the opening I bought some WSM @ $154.40. WSM announced results. Gave guidance. Somebody(s) freaked out. Stock plunged. I looked at the #s, thought the reaction was batbleep crazy, so I bought some. Not a huge amount. I'm no expert on the intricacies of either the P&L or the strategies of retailers, so I figured down near $150 I'd do some more research on it, and buy a little WSM everyday for a week or 2 and get a good position.
Well, WSM is now 8.9% above where I bought it in barely over 24 hrs. 8.9%. Yesterday's decline has been almost completely reversed. Looks like I won't buy more WSM. Oh well, SUCH AN E:ROFLMAO:F:ROFLMAO:F:ROFLMAO:I:ROFLMAO:C:ROFLMAO:I:ROFLMAO:E:ROFLMAO:N:ROFLMAO:T market. As both Buffett and I say: this stuff is NONSENSE.
 
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I won't bother you with the math, but here is the secret to the nonsense claim that the stock market is efficient. Using math spread much too thinly and some meh logic, the idea is that, after plunging by 11%, WSM stock hit $154.40 and when I bought some at $154.40, I and others did not know if the next price tick would be above or below $154.40. That is it. The next tick. That is what is called E:ROFLMAO:F:ROFLMAO:F:ROFLMAO:I:ROFLMAO:C:ROFLMAO:I:ROFLMAO:E:ROFLMAO:N:ROFLMAO:C :ROFLMAO: Y:ROFLMAO:.

In the mouth or pen of a mathlete spreading math far too thinly, the English language becomes nonsense. and now back to our regularly scheduled
E:ROFLMAO:F:ROFLMAO:F:ROFLMAO:I:ROFLMAO:C:ROFLMAO:I:ROFLMAO:E:ROFLMAO:N:ROFLMAO:C :ROFLMAO: Y:ROFLMAO:.
 
ask yourself, when I bought WSM @ $154.40, did I give a flying anything what the next tick would be? o_O
 
WaikikiFirst said:
ask yourself, when I bought WSM @ $154.40, did I give a flying anything what the next tick would be? o_O
Click to expand...
you do not seem to understand what the EMH says.

alpha indisputably exists; but the entire market's returns by definition have to be the gross indexes minus the total fees; therefore the net returns of active funds trail the indexes. decades of research has shown that the more one pays in fees, on average, the less one gets in returns.

Are there some superstar investors (Lynch, Buffett, etc)? yes. are you likely one of them? no. but you might be, and good for you! I don't need to be. I don't need to trade. I don't need to create my own mini index. 100% of my non real estate portfolio is inveated in low cost tax efficient passive index funds with a weighted average expense ratio of 0.07%. I have some funds I have owned for thirty years. It's an extremely easy, boring, low stress way to reach financial independence.
 
letsgobobby said:
you do not seem to understand what the EMH says.
Click to expand...
Oh no. You have that backwards. You don't understand and you cannot explain it. I guess Buffett doesn't understand? I guess some of Fama's most famous students don't understand? Just admit it. All you do is parrot propaganda. Your entire 2nd para is nothing but parroting propaganda. It has absolutely nothing to do with the word "efficient" in general, and more specifically, it has nothing, absolutely nothing, to do with the derivation of the EMH.

Tell you what, give us even the slightest indication that you understand the math behind the EMH. Go ahead. Or, just keep parroting propaganda.

Tell Buffett. Buffet seems to be clueless about this. Buffett's response to EMH? Same words I use: "emotional", "nonsense". He is really talking about the cheerleaders for EMH as much as he is talking about EMH.
 
So everyone, understand the reality:
The EMH is MATH.
bobby's view of it is marketing.
It could not be more simple.
Does bobby understand much math? TBD
 
WaikikiFirst said:
some of Fama's most famous students
Click to expand...
I'll provide links to articles by that guy at AQR (Arnett, Asnett, whichever) if you promise to read them, understand them, and discuss if they fundamentally have MY view of EMH or your (marketing) view of EMH. Up to it, in any way, up to it?
 
WaikikiFirst said:
Oh no. You have that backwards. You don't understand and you cannot explain it. I guess Buffett doesn't understand? I guess some of Fama's most famous students don't understand? Just admit it. All you do is parrot propaganda. Your entire 2nd para is nothing but parroting propaganda. It has absolutely nothing to do with the word "efficient" in general, and more specifically, it has nothing, absolutely nothing, to do with the derivation of the EMH.

Tell you what, give us even the slightest indication that you understand the math behind the EMH. Go ahead. Or, just keep parroting propaganda.

Tell Buffett. Buffet seems to be clueless about this. Buffett's response to EMH? Same words I use: "emotional", "nonsense". He is really talking about the cheerleaders for EMH as much as he is talking about EMH.
Click to expand...
you aren't warren buffett, even if you think or in fact you have outperformed the markets on a risk-, fee-, and tax-adjusted basis. EMH doesn't mean there is no alpha, that has already been stipulated. And of course there is skill. There's just a lot less than most investors think. You yourself might even be the next Warren Buffett! But it doesn't change what the vast majority of individual investors should do with the vast majority of their portfolios.

But most people say they "broke even" in Vegas and 80% of drivers say they are better than average and in almost any survey on any trait most people rate themselves above average so you're in great company.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

The better-than-average effect in comparative self-evaluation: A comprehensive review and meta-analysis - PubMed

The better-than-average-effect (BTAE) is the tendency for people to perceive their abilities, attributes, and personality traits as superior compared with their average peer. This article offers a comprehensive review of the BTAE and the first quantitative synthesis of the BTAE literature. We...
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
 
If I offended you because you think I was to rough on teachers, I like to thank one ex-teacher. That would be Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota. He wants others to be excited as he is that Tesla stock is dropping despite the fact that it is damaging Minnesota's pension plan.

I thank him for doing that because it drives up my TSLS which I am taking the profits and parking it into a treasury and dollar cost averaging by playing catch a falling knife back into TSLA.
 
letsgobobby said:
you aren't warren buffett
Click to expand...
Thanks for the strawman & thanks for ONCE AGAIN showing everyone that when it comes to EMH, you have nothing but marketing, propaganda & gaslighting to offer. I know that you don't understand the MATH. I get that. The next question is: DO you not even understand that the EMH IS MATH? Are you that superficial?
 
letsgobobby said:
superstar investors
Click to expand...
I could do this all day, but I'll give just one. The term "superstar investors" is just another piece of propaganda. It is a specious slogan designed to gaslight you into believing that the ONLY people who can "beat the market" are "superstars"?
Everyone but bobby understands that that is just more nonsense, don't they?
 
WaikikiFirst said:
I won't bother you with the math, but here is the secret to the nonsense claim that the stock market is efficient. Using math spread much too thinly and some meh logic, the idea is that, after plunging by 11%, WSM stock hit $154.40 and when I bought some at $154.40, I and others did not know if the next price tick would be above or below $154.40. That is it. The next tick. That is what is called E:ROFLMAO:F:ROFLMAO:F:ROFLMAO:I:ROFLMAO:C:ROFLMAO:I:ROFLMAO:E:ROFLMAO:N:ROFLMAO:C :ROFLMAO: Y:ROFLMAO:.

In the mouth or pen of a mathlete spreading math far too thinly, the English language becomes nonsense. and now back to our regularly scheduled
E:ROFLMAO:F:ROFLMAO:F:ROFLMAO:I:ROFLMAO:C:ROFLMAO:I:ROFLMAO:E:ROFLMAO:N:ROFLMAO:C :ROFLMAO: Y:ROFLMAO:.
Click to expand...


ride that WSM bull !

return.jpg
 
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The turtle marches on. Still moving forward with a winning day. My 0.06% gain beat my 0.04% goal. It also beat all 3 indexes and VBAL which was down 0.27%.

My top 3 bull winners today
1. ALL up 2.59%
2. AJG up 2.39 %
3. USCI up 2.23%

My top 3 bear winners today
1. YXI up 3.07%
2. AVS up 2.19%
3. BITI up 1.26%
 

Investors should generally be well-diversified across all stock market sectors​

Schwab Sector Views is their six- to 12-month outlook for stock sectors, ​

which represent broad sectors of the economy. For the basics on sectors, see​

Stock Sectors: What Are They? How Are They Used?​

This article explains the basics of equity sectors using company names and their ticker symbols for general informational purposes only.

Charles Schwab

www.schwab.com

Sector definitions:

Communication Services sector: The Communication Services Sector includes telecom and media & entertainment companies including producers of interactive gaming products and companies engaged in content and information creation or distribution through proprietary platforms.

Consumer Discretionary sector: The Consumer Discretionary sector's manufacturing segment includes automobiles & components, household durable goods, leisure products and textiles & apparel. The services segment includes hotels, restaurants, and other leisure facilities. It also includes distributors and retailers of consumer discretionary products.

Consumer Staples sector: The Consumer Staples sector includes manufacturers and distributors of food, beverages and tobacco and producers of non-durable household goods and personal products. It also includes distributors and retailers of consumer staples products including food & drug retailing companies.

Energy sector: The Energy sector includes companies that operate in the areas of exploration & production, refining & marketing, and storage & transportation of oil & gas and coal & consumable fuels. It also includes companies that offer oil & gas equipment and services.

Financials sector: The Financials sector includes banking, financial services, consumer finance, capital markets and insurance activities. It also includes Financial Exchanges & Data and Mortgage REITs.

Health Care sector: The Health Care sector includes health care providers & services, health care equipment & supplies, and health care technology companies. It also includes companies involved in the research, development, production and marketing of pharmaceuticals and biotechnology products.

Industrials sector: The Industrials sector includes aerospace & defense, building products, electrical equipment and machinery and companies that offer construction & engineering services. It also includes providers of commercial & professional services including printing, environmental and facilities services, office services & supplies, security & alarm services, human resource & employment services, research & consulting services. It also includes companies that provide transportation services.

Information Technology sector: The Information Technology sector includes software and information technology services, manufacturers and distributors of technology hardware & equipment such as communications equipment, cellular phones, computers & peripherals, electronic equipment and related instruments, and semiconductors and related equipment & materials.

Materials sector: The Materials sector includes chemicals, construction materials, forest products, glass, paper and related packaging products, and metals, minerals and mining companies, including producers of steel.

Real Estate sector: The Real Estate sector includes companies engaged in real estate development and operation. It also includes companies offering real estate related services and Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs).

Utilities sector: The Utilities sector covers utility companies such as electric, gas and water utilities. It also includes independent power producers, energy traders and renewable sources.

The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice.
 
With the first quarter coming to a close shortly, here are the Year-to-Date movements of various asset classes:
Gold UP 15.18%
Silver UP 14.62%
Bitcoin DOWN 10.08%
S&P DOWN 3.42%
DOW DOWN 0.96%
 
Miss Marty said:
Investors should generally be well-diversified across all stock market sectors
Click to expand...

Investors who don't know what they are doing should definitely be well-diworsified across all stock market sectors. If you are a BELOW-AVG investor, there is nothing wrong with aspiring to be AVG. ​


Schwab! Good one!
 
Brett back to his std of linking to things he doesn't understand ... things written by people who understand them only slightly better.
OF COURSE Buffett thinks his kids should "buy the index". His kids have no investing skill. They are BELOW-AVG. They never showed any desire to "follow dad".
The only skills they seem to have are standing in reception lines and GIVING AWAY MONEY. They are awesome at GIVING AWAY MONEY that they themselves did not earn. In addition, iirc, his son was a "gentleman farmer" and may still be. GF: loves the smell of hay, loves to eat, not worried about making a profit.

What happened to the hot-dog?
 
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