[2020] A little stock market sense

[TolmiePeak]

You are correct about the rebalancing at the end of the year. You are wrong about people arguing. There are people here who will argue with you if you say the sun is yellow. They will argue what shade of yellow. That is why I call them elite nit-picking snobs. They will say you are not rebalancing but trying to time the market. I have had that argument with them.

Aren't they generally attacking your tone and not your strategies? Also it is impossible to argue with someone who refuses to argue.

 

[letsgobobby]

You are correct about the rebalancing at the end of the year. You are wrong about people arguing. There are people here who will argue with you if you say the sun is yellow. They will argue what shade of yellow. That is why I call them elite nit-picking snobs. They will say you are not rebalancing but trying to time the market. I have had that argument with them.

if you always buy the underweight asset in your portfolio you are rebalancing.

but you are market timing, because your decision varies based on whether you believe the market is high or low:

"If this market rally continues for next 5 weeks, it runs into the end of the year dividends many investments distribute. So, if people reinvest, they will be buying high.

I take them as cash. Since I keep an equal amount in all my investments, I use them to raise those below my baseline back to the baseline. Thus buying low."

bogleheads would call this a misdemeanor, as opposed to a felony. but it's market-timing nonetheless.

 

[Brett]

Russell 2000 and Dow Jones close at record highs
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/dow-russell-2000-close-record-211448480.html

.
US stocks (^DJI), the Russell 2000 small-cap index (^RUT) broke to a record high above 2,450, the index's first record close since 2021.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average also closed at a new record high

 

[RENTER]

if you always buy the underweight asset in your portfolio you are rebalancing.

but you are market timing, because your decision varies based on whether you believe the market is high or low:

"If this market rally continues for next 5 weeks, it runs into the end of the year dividends many investments distribute. So, if people reinvest, they will be buying high.

I take them as cash. Since I keep an equal amount in all my investments, I use them to raise those below my baseline back to the baseline. Thus buying low."

bogleheads would call this a misdemeanor, as opposed to a felony. but it's market-timing nonetheless.

not market timing. Making no decision of market is up or down. Just rebalancing to my baseline with my dividends.

 

[RENTER]

No one is "arguing" with you!

(about mutual fund year-end distributions )

View attachment 102538
https://corporate.vanguard.com/cont...nds-etfs-and-capital-gains-distributions.html

not about this issue. But most people do not take them as cash like I do. They have them reinvested when the market is high at the end of the year. Most of the time the market is high and then falls a little bit later. If they waited, they could take advantage of it when the prices dropped.

 

[letsgobobby]

But most people do not take them as cash like I do. They have them reinvested when the market is high at the end of the year. Most of the time the market is high and then falls a little bit later. If they waited, they could take advantage of it when the prices dropped.

do you see that you are claiming one thing:

"not market timing. Making no decision of market is up or down."

but doing another?

 

[RENTER]

No one is "arguing" with you!

(about mutual fund year-end distributions )

View attachment 102538
https://corporate.vanguard.com/cont...nds-etfs-and-capital-gains-distributions.html

Actually, I have been called crazy. Friends of my family have told them I do not know what I am doing when they tell them I do not automatically reinvest the dividends when distributed. That their broker and advisor do not do that.

Also, it is just not mutual funds. It is also ETF's and stocks. Even the short ETF's and mutual funds distribute dividends. Now there are short single stock ETF's and they distribute dividends.

If people closely follow the 4% rule and I know some argue about it they should be able to live off the dividends and it does not, matter if the market is up or down. I said closely. To me that means anywhere between 3% and 6%

 

[rapmarks]

Seems like an awful lot of people are aware of your investment theory

 

[1Kflyerguy]

Seems like an awful lot of people are aware of your investment theory

There is nothing bad about people being aware of your theory, I do some of the thing Renter is talking about, but use different approaches to other elements. But its quite likely our situations are different...