[2020] A little stock market sense

[CalGalTraveler]

@WaikikiFirst you crack me up with your high-handed preaching when Tuggers come here asking for investment ideas.

Market and country risks are real and you're too busy looking in the rear-view mirror and insulting others who hold valid, alterative viewpoints to see the trends clearly. Go ahead and double-down in the U.S. stock market while the world changes around you. Have a fun elevator ride down. I am done.

 

[WaikikiFirst]

Market and country risks are real

just one of the half-dozen things you can't seem to get right: you have used the words "double-down" multiple times when absolutely nobody wrote anything that meant "double-down" in any way. Still, nobody wants to discuss the otehr handful of invalid ideas, statements & paradigms that CalGal gave us?

Market and country risks are real and your idea is to run toward them. Brilliant! Or just paranoia?

 

[letsgobobby]

Many fund managers and financial advisors are talking about this melt up. The interesting thing about a melt up is how fast they melt down.

Bill

the famous melt down we've all been waiting for since this thread started. the market is up about 160% since then. even if we now had a 50% melt down an investor would be up 30% since this thread began.

constant pessimism is a recipe for failure.

 

[easyrider]

constant pessimism is a recipe for failure.

It's been a reported melt up, which is when markets go up without anything really indicative of the increase. There is no catalyst for the melt up. High inflation , high debt and high unemployment ratios with a fluctuating interest rate usually is an indication of a soft market. The way it is described is a melt down after a melt up is worse than a bubble pop senario.

I really doubt that the biggest investors are pessimists.

Bill

 

[letsgobobby]

It's been a reported melt up, which is when markets go up without anything really indicative of the increase. There is no catalyst for the melt up. High inflation , high debt and high unemployment ratios with a fluctuating interest rate usually is an indication of a soft market. The way it is described is a melt down after a melt up is worse than a bubble pop senario.

I really doubt that the biggest investors are pessimists.

Bill

high inflation - wrong! 2.6% yoy

high unemployment - wrong! 4.1% near all time lows

debt - sure, the debt bubble has been talked about for decades and some day it will be a problem but as long as we have dollar and us military hegemony I'm not too concerned; anyway the solution is to be internationally diversified across industries, which we are.

no catalyst for a melt up - wrong! Republicans just swept the elections and the incoming president has promised a radical new look at lower corporate taxes, lower energy prices, lower regulations including environmental regulations. Corporations foresee substantially higher profits and investors foresee higher stock returns - melt up explained.

when you're a hammer everything looks like a nail. endless pessimism in this thread and elsewhere is Exhibit A why most people should not try to outguess the markets but rather just buy broad based index funds and be done with it.

 

[easyrider]

high inflation - wrong! 2.6% yoy

high unemployment - wrong! 4.1% near all time lows

debt - sure, the debt bubble has been talked about for decades and some day it will be a problem but as long as we have dollar and us military hegemony I'm not too concerned; anyway the solution is to be internationally diversified across industries, which we are.

no catalyst for a melt up - wrong! Republicans just swept the elections and the incoming president has promised a radical new look at lower corporate taxes, lower energy prices, lower regulations including environmental regulations. Corporations foresee substantially higher profits and investors foresee higher stock returns - melt up explained.

when you're a hammer everything looks like a nail. endless pessimism in this thread and elsewhere is Exhibit A why most people should not try to outguess the markets but rather just buy broad based index funds and be done with it.

There have been over 3.4 million jobs lost this year with most of these from the professional services sector. Gauging lower inflation in a 6 months period doesn't explain the high costs of food, building material and so many other items over the last 4-5 years. It doesn't matter what party is in office and your explanation of no melt up is a contrary opinion to the actions of huge investors.

Then again, you might be right, lol.

Bill

 

[letsgobobby]

There have been over 3.4 million jobs lost this year with most of these from the professional services sector. Gauging lower inflation in a 6 months period doesn't explain the high costs of food, building material and so many other items over the last 4-5 years. It doesn't matter what party is in office and your explanation of no melt up is a contrary opinion to the actions of huge investors.

Then again, you might be right, lol.

Bill

when you cannot read and analyze data you will naturally end up rather uninformed.

source for the "3.4 million jobs lost this year."

Monthly job losses U.S. 2024 | Statista

More than three million Americans lost their jobs in the last month in the United States.

www.statista.com

in fact it was actually 3.4 million jobs lost in october alone. catastrophe you say! in fact this is completely normal. monthly job losses in the millions is normal for a massive economy with hundreds of millions of employees. We also create millions of jobs each month: the power of American capitalism at work. creative destruction.

what matters is net job creation. And net jobs created is 2.2 million in the twelve trailing months.

Employment Situation Summary - 2024 M10 Results

www.bls.gov

facts matter. if you can't analyze the data how can you imagine you will outperform the passive market or the professional investor?

 

[easyrider]

when you cannot read and analyze data you will naturally end up rather uninformed.

source for the "3.4 million jobs lost this year."

Monthly job losses U.S. 2024 | Statista

More than three million Americans lost their jobs in the last month in the United States.

www.statista.com

in fact it was actually 3.4 million jobs lost in october alone. catastrophe you say! in fact this is completely normal. monthly job losses in the millions is normal for a massive economy with hundreds of millions of employees. We also create millions of jobs each month: the power of American capitalism at work. creative destruction.

what matters is net job creation. And net jobs created is 2.2 million in the twelve trailing months.

Employment Situation Summary - 2024 M10 Results

www.bls.gov

facts matter. if you can't analyze the data how can you imagine you will outperform the passive market or the professional investor?

What you are saying is the 3.4 million jobs in the professional sector, which were career jobs, are similar to temp work and seasonal jobs because they are jobs.

Bill

 

[letsgobobby]

What you are saying is the 3.4 million jobs in the professional sector, which were career jobs, are similar to temp work and seasonal jobs because they are jobs.

Bill

please provide a reliable source for your claims. we can go from there.

since my childhood the stock market has increased 50 fold. just think about that for a minute. 1000 bucks is now worth $50,000 and actually quite a bit more because of reinvested dividends. for most investors this is by far the best move. everything else is just noise.

 

[TolmiePeak]

@WaikikiFirst you crack me up with your high-handed preaching when Tuggers come here asking for investment ideas.

Market and country risks are real and you're too busy looking in the rear-view mirror and insulting others who hold valid, alterative viewpoints to see the trends clearly. Go ahead and double-down in the U.S. stock market while the world changes around you. Have a fun elevator ride down. I am done.

Waikiki isn't nearly as condescending as Renter who has since departed this thread.

 

[easyrider]

please provide a reliable source for your claims. we can go from there.

since my childhood the stock market has increased 50 fold. just think about that for a minute. 1000 bucks is now worth $50,000 and actually quite a bit more because of reinvested dividends. for most investors this is by far the best move. everything else is just noise.

You can easily Google the types of job losses this year. There are more career jobs that are going to disappear soon through lay offs and job elimination. Many Government jobs will likely be eliminated in 2025 as a way to reduce the National Debt. When the professional services sector jobs go so do many of the blue collar jobs.

Then again, maybe it's a good thing, especially regarding redundancy in Government jobs.

Bill

 

[letsgobobby]

what we have here is... failure to communicate...

 

[CalGalTraveler]

That was fast. So much for market election bump...stocks decline.

Glad I harvested at the peak. Rather than laddered stop losses, I ladder market peaks and take some of the gains off the table to secure that win. All done in non-taxable retirement accounts of course.

US Stocks Have Already Reversed Half of Post-Election Rally

(Bloomberg) -- The S&P 500 Index has given back more than half of its post-election rally as Friday’s selloff steepens, with sticky inflation and hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve weighing on sentiment.Most Read from BloombergUnder Trump, Prepare for New US Transportation...

www.yahoo.com

 

[Brett]

That was fast. So much for market election bump...stocks decline.

Glad I harvested at the peak. Rather than laddered stop losses, I ladder market peaks and take some of the gains off the table to secure that win. All done in non-taxable retirement accounts of course.

US Stocks Have Already Reversed Half of Post-Election Rally

(Bloomberg) -- The S&P 500 Index has given back more than half of its post-election rally as Friday’s selloff steepens, with sticky inflation and hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve weighing on sentiment.Most Read from BloombergUnder Trump, Prepare for New US Transportation...

www.yahoo.com

But many people believe you cannot predict stock market highs and lows so the best plan is to just remain invested in the market at a
certain risk level - say 60% stocks and 40% bonds/CD's and not worry about "harvesting the peak" or buying at the lowest of the low

 

[letsgobobby]

everyone believes they are an above average investor

everyone believes they are an above average driver

 

[CalGalTraveler]

But many people believe you cannot predict stock market highs and lows so the best plan is to just remain invested in the market at a
certain risk level - say 60% stocks and 40% bonds/CD's and not worry about "harvesting the peak" or buying at the lowest of the low

Correct. You cannot predict. I forgot to mention that we are nearing retirement so reducing our allocation from 60%+ stocks to 50%.

So we are not leaving the market entirely. We are reducing market exposure by laddering sales gains at peaks to not have to say, "i wish I sold at X" after market drops.

This is instead of applying automatic stop loss ladders which can lock in your losses and are subject to a falling knife when markets drop. Stop losses and trailing stop losses are a safety net but volatility can knock you out of the market prematurely thus locking in a net loss.

 

[Brett]

Dow Jones notches another record high
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/21/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

"Big banks are expected to go on the offense and help craft future rules in a way that favors Wall Street."