[2020] A little stock market sense

[Brett]

S&P 500 and Dow Rise to Records
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/22/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

 

[PigsDad]

Neither have I, so I stick to just the price. There are lots of charts for that. What I was showing is the shift of relative value for the two competing investments over time.price

I understand, but if you are comparing gold charts to price index charts instead of return index charts, it really means nothing since it is an apples to oranges comparison. At that point, it is like comparing gold price to avocado production -- might be interesting but means nothing. You certainly can't make any conclusions on "relative value" since the price index charts don't include a huge portion of an investor's value without the dividends included.

Kurt

 

[spthomas]

Another contrarian thought. When we do as is often suggested, get out of the market and into "safer" investments like CDs or annuities or money market instruments, it could be we're preserving capital. But, another way to look at that is we are avoiding the risk of sub-par returns or even losses by throwing the gains away up front, by going from 10% or so average returns in the stock market to 3% or so average returns for "safer" instruments like treasuries or CDs. In that scenario, even in good years you threw away 7%.

My retirement plan was to contribute to my stock market fund every year, and ignore everything else. I started in 1988, and I rode out (by doing nothing) the big dips. Of the money in my fund when I retired in 2022, 10% was what I contributed, and 90% was earnings from the stock market. And I did take about 50% hits in 2000-2001 and 2008, and still ended up with huge gains, because the market came back.

Everyone should just do what you want, and pay attention to your own advisors. I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything. This is what's working for me.

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

Since you are interested in dividends, here's a chart for you

 

[WaikikiFirst]

In the year 2024, that chart is BS. The underlying "thought" may even be kinda-sorta true. The boxed comment is true, but the chart itself is pure BS. ANyone else want to point out why?

Sad to think people really fall for that kind of nonsense, aka are so easily fooled by cherry-picked #s thrown on a page as a splashy graphic.

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

In the year 2024, that chart is BS. The underlying "thought" may even be kinda-sorta true. The boxed comment is true, but the chart itself is pure BS. ANyone else want to point out why?

Sad to think people really fall for that kind of nonsense, aka are so easily fooled by cherry-picked #s thrown on a page as a splashy graphic.

The gap was because of the 50% bear market for the S&P 500 during 2000-2002.

 

[WaikikiFirst]

because of the 50% bear market for the S&P 500 during 2000-2002

Which was led by tech stocks, most of which did not pay dividends, and almost all of which WERE NOT AROUND FOR 25 YEARS.
Step right up. Somebody tell us how much the SP500 beat those "Aristocrats" by in the 2 or 3 years prior to the beginning of that chart.
Step right up. Somebody tell us how much the SP500 beat those "Aristocrats" by in the 21 months since the end of that chart.
Step right up. Somebody tell us how much the SP500 beat those "Aristocrats" by over the last 30 yrs.

I'm off to pick some cherries.

 

[WaikikiFirst]

Hint: on the day that person made that chart, the best conclusion was "Hmmm, time to switch OUT of the Aristocrats"