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[2020] A little stock market sense

WaikikiFirst

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btw, simpler version of this type of thing are well-covered, incl by a couple of highly-respected finance people who may even have PhDs and stuff ... LOL
Here: https://muscularportfolios.com/papa-bear/
That strategy is similar to the one Renter describes in 1 way but it is basically the exact opposite in another way
 
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Brett

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Owning everything in slices to match the total index is not trying to beat the market. It is trying to match the market without suffering the 30% to 50% drop. A simple approach which I do not understand why people do not get it.

I play the long short game with the following indexes and stocks. That means I have a bull and bear. Dow, 500, Nasdaq, Small Cap, Mid Cap, International, Emerging Market, China, Energy, Financial, Gold, Real Estate, Financial, Retail, Arkk, Bitcoin, Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, Nivida, High Yield Bonds, Long Term Treasuries and Immediate Treasuries.

Since I already have energy, financial and real estate covered, that leaves the other 8 sectors of the 11 in the 500. So I have those 8 plus the 37 different subsectors I have chosen. I hedge them against treasuries of floating rate, 1 month, 3 month, 6 month, 1 year, 2 year, 5 year, 7 year, 10 year, 20 year, 30 year and Tips.

My portfolio will always be green and red. At any time I will have something up that I can cherry pick from.

What is a sub sector? In financial you will have insurance, brokers, large banks, regional banks

In health you will have bio tech, medical devices, pharmaceuticals

In the Reits I have discussed before, you have warehouse, data centers, communication towers, medical offices, apartments, storage

I cover as much as the economy I can and let the market tell me what to buy and sell. I do not look at balance sheets, I do not look at charts. I do not use stop orders, I do not use limit orders, I do not use options. I do not listen to experts. I keep it simple and just use what is above or below my baseline.

This works for me. Gamblers do not like it because it is to boring for them. i share it to help to others because it may work for them. i mention I use the stock market for freedom. That means never having to worry about running out of money like many have done and had to return back to work in the senior years.

But that freedom is at risk if others fail in the stock market or never learn it. Because people never accept the responsibility of their actions and mistakes. So if they gamble with the stock market and lose, they will blame the system and accuse it of being rigged for the rich. Thus, they will vote for communism and socialist ideas.

My system takes the gambling out of the stock market. Automatically forces you to sell high and buy low. With all I have, for me to lose everything, that means the planet has been destroyed by an asteroid. I do not have an ETF that covers asteroids striking earth.

Again, it may not be for everyone. But anyone who attacks me for it, is just an egotistical nitpicker who loves to hear themselves talk by trying to impress people by making things complicated.


Just think about all the financial professionals that just don't "get it". You really should sell your stock market trading 'system' to the ignorant mutual fund managers
(they would only work 5 minutes in the morning and then head to the golf course, it's a sure sell!)




funds.png




https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/02/business/stock-market-index-funds.html

"These findings support practical advice that has been the academic consensus for decades. Forget about trying to beat the odds and outsmarting everybody else. Instead, use low-cost stock and bond index funds that mirror the overall market, and keep them for decades. Don’t bother with fads or fancy market timing."
 
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letsgobobby

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Just think about all the financial professionals that just don't "get it". You really should sell your stock market trading 'system' to the ignorant mutual fund managers
(they would only work 5 minutes in the morning and then head to the golf course, it's a sure sell!)




View attachment 98478



https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/02/business/stock-market-index-funds.html

"These findings support practical advice that has been the academic consensus for decades. Forget about trying to beat the odds and outsmarting everybody else. Instead, use low-cost stock and bond index funds that mirror the overall market, and keep them for decades. Don’t bother with fads or fancy market timing."
but RENTER is smarter than everyone else. Don't you see that yet?
 

RENTER

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@RENTER If you simply buy one Total Market ETF and one International ETF, you are pretty much covered in terms of automatic rebalancing. You are making your life way too hard and busy and not even do better than the market in the long run.
whatever you say. Enjoy those 30% to 50% drops while I spend 5 minutes a day avoiding them
 

RENTER

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[Political remark expunged]
 
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RENTER

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Just think about all the financial professionals that just don't "get it". You really should sell your stock market trading 'system' to the ignorant mutual fund managers
(they would only work 5 minutes in the morning and then head to the golf course, it's a sure sell!)




View attachment 98478



https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/02/business/stock-market-index-funds.html

"These findings support practical advice that has been the academic consensus for decades. Forget about trying to beat the odds and outsmarting everybody else. Instead, use low-cost stock and bond index funds that mirror the overall market, and keep them for decades. Don’t bother with fads or fancy market timing."
Actually they already do it. Fidelity has a mutual fund that is based on 7 indexes of their index funds. 4 stocks. 3 bonds and 1 international. So how long does it take them to rebalance 7 index funds inside one mutual fund. I assume not long. They charge 0.13% to manage.

A lazy person buys that and takes the hit during a crash. A gambler will try to pick one. I am in the middle and break them out into 7 different investments sell the winners and buy the loser.

How sad that some people who claim to be experts on the stock market cannot understand something that simple. I was mocked by people like that in 1987, 1994, 2000, 2007 and 2022 and they did not do well when the crash came. 1994 was not too bad but a lot of seniors got crushed in the bond market.
 

Brett

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For those who mock me and my simple plan to help the average person, enjoy when they vote to raise your income taxes to socialist and communist levels when they lose everything listening to you
Actually they already do it. Fidelity has a mutual fund that is based on 7 indexes of their index funds. 4 stocks. 3 bonds and 1 international. So how long does it take them to rebalance 7 index funds inside one mutual fund. I assume not long. They charge 0.13% to manage.

A lazy person buys that and takes the hit during a crash. A gambler will try to pick one. I am in the middle and break them out into 7 different investments sell the winners and buy the loser.

How sad that some people who claim to be experts on the stock market cannot understand something that simple. I was mocked by people like that in 1987, 1994, 2000, 2007 and 2022 and they did not do well when the crash came. 1994 was not too bad but a lot of seniors got crushed in the bond market.


No "mocking - It's simply stating that a buy and hold strategy yields greater returns over the long term than timing stock trades

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_timing

fund.jpg

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/02/business/stock-market-index-funds.html
 

VacationForever

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whatever you say. Enjoy those 30% to 50% drops while I spend 5 minutes a day avoiding them
After my portfolio has gone up 200%, a drop of 30% is nothing. I don't believe there is a 50% drop in our lifetime. However, with your method, instead of getting that 200% gain, you might get a 100% gain and get a 20% drop. What you have lost out is those huge gains. Since I buy and hold, I don't worry when it goes down 30%.
 
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rapmarks

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You repeatedly say you buy the losers. Haven’t you ever had a loser that continued to lose?
 

TolmiePeak

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[Political remarks expunged]
Many goods and services are delivered in a socialist manner in the United States. Social Security, Medicare, police, fire, schools, roads, etc.
 
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Tia

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Many goods and services are delivered in a socialist manner in the United States. Social Security, Medicare, police, fire, schools, roads, etc.
the first two are struggling financially Social Security and Medicare believe
 

TolmiePeak

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the first two are struggling financially Social Security and Medicare believe
Yep. But you won't hear too many politicians who are soon up for reelection advocating privatizing them.
 

MULTIZ321

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Fidelity's Finest Funds: 10 Picks That Get a Gold Star




Richard
 

RENTER

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No because except for the magnificent 7, I buy index funds or ETF's that cover a sector They always come back. If they don't, we are all in trouble
 

RENTER

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After my portfolio has gone up 200%, a drop of 30% is nothing. I don't believe there is a 50% drop in our lifetime. However, with your method, instead of getting that 200% gain, you might get a 100% gain and get a 20% drop. What you have lost out is those huge gains. Since I buy and hold, I don't worry when it goes down 30%.
You are 100% correct I give up the gain for peace of mind.

Where you are wrong is many people thought they could handle a 30% drop with a buy and hold strategy until they lost their jobs or had major damages to their homes that insurance did not cover, or major medical expenses and that is something you cannot plan when it will occur.

Also no 50% drops? There has been 2 in my lifetime and 1973-1974 came close
 

RENTER

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Yeah smart enough to know I cannot beat the stock market so I own everything
Actually you may be right. Since people cannot understand this simple process, then maybe I am smarter then most. But let's hope it is financial advisors that mock me because they realize if people can do this themselves, they do not need to pay financial advisors.

Let's hope it is financial advisors, because if people are so clueless not to understand this, then those are the same people who are going to vote for a 25% tax on unrealized gains.
 

RENTER

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After my portfolio has gone up 200%, a drop of 30% is nothing. I don't believe there is a 50% drop in our lifetime. However, with your method, instead of getting that 200% gain, you might get a 100% gain and get a 20% drop. What you have lost out is those huge gains. Since I buy and hold, I don't worry when it goes down 30%.
In 1973-74, it took 6 years to get back to even
In 2000, it took 8 years only to get back to even only to run into 2008
where it took another 6 years to get back to even
For tech stocks it took 17 years to get back to even after the 2000 crash.

I know many people who thought like you and were burnt and had to sell their homes and move away because they lost their jobs and life savings. The same people who mocked my tortoise approach that allowed me to pass them by. Taking my profits, yes reduced my growth but allowed me to keep it and then taking advantage of the fire sale.
 

rapmarks

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Actually you may be right. Since people cannot understand this simple process, then maybe I am smarter then most. But let's hope it is financial advisors that mock me because they realize if people can do this themselves, they do not need to pay financial advisors.

Let's hope it is financial advisors, because if people are so clueless not to understand this, then those are the same people who are going to vote for a 25% tax on unrealized gains.
On assets over 100 million
 
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