[2020] A little stock market sense

[Carolinian]

Hedge fund manager issues warning over future of the stock market

Mark Spitznagel, president and chief investment officer of Universa Investments, made the prediction in an interview with Fortune, almost two weeks after the worldwide fiasco.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Brett]

Of course but after demand drops and buyers of gold realize they are getting duped by the exchanges they will dump gold and you won't be able to get much for it. Just look at the rubes that bought gold at Costco and felt ripped off when they could only get 75 cents on the dollar then they sold. The buy / sell spreads are 25%.

Gold certainly has higher transaction costs and storage costs compared to stocks
If gold keeps going up perhaps the Costco "rubes" that bought "Suisse Lady Fortuna Veriscan" gold bars might make a profit

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

Yes, and real estate has even higher transaction costs, and taxes on it, whether or not there is any cash flow.

Real assets of any type require more cost than paper assets. Doesn't make them inherently bad investments.

 

[TolmiePeak]

Yes, and real estate has even higher transaction costs, and taxes on it, whether or not there is any cash flow.

Real assets of any type require more cost than paper assets. Doesn't make them inherently bad investments.

Aren’t real estate costs less than 10%? Gold has far bigger spreads like 25%.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

Aren’t real estate costs less than 10%? Gold has far bigger spreads like 25%.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Shouldn't have that big a spread. You can usually sell to a refiner for 92% of spot. You might check a big dealer for bid prices.

Here is a dealer buy site. https://www.apmex.com/sell-gold-sell-silver-overview

Of course the bigger the amount the narrower the spread. But one doesn't trade gold. It is a long term hold asset, like real estate.

 

[Carolinian]

Shouldn't have that big a spread. You can usually sell to a refiner for 92% of spot. You might check a big dealer for bid prices.

Here is a dealer buy site. https://www.apmex.com/sell-gold-sell-silver-overview

Of course the bigger the amount the narrower the spread. But one doesn't trade gold. It is a long term hold asset, like real estate.

And in terms of buying gold, there are a number of coins that can regularly be bought in the 3 to 5% over spot range, and I occaisinonally see a few gold coins on sale at spot, most recently Imperial Austrian 100 kronen, which are almost an ounce of gold each.

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

And in terms of buying gold, there are a number of coins that can regularly be bought in the 3 to 5% over spot range, and I occaisinonally see a few gold coins on sale at spot, most recently Imperial Austrian 100 kronen, which are almost an ounce of gold each.

Of course, they will have lower buy prices. Some coins are "out of fashion", for various reasons.The more popular the coin is, the narrower the spread.

 

[letsgobobby]

Of course, they will have lower buy prices. Some coins are "out of fashion", for various reasons.The more popular the coin is, the narrower the spread.

i have gold bars and coins i want to get rid of what is the best way to sell them? just a few oz. i don't think any of the coins have nuismatic value.

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

i have gold bars and coins i want to get rid of what is the best way to sell them? just a few oz. i don't think any of the coins have nuismatic value.

You might try https://www.apmex.com/sell-gold-sell-silver-overview for a quote.

 

[RENTER]

 

[Carolinian]

You might try https://www.apmex.com/sell-gold-sell-silver-overview for a quote.

Two other big precious metal dealers are JM Bullion and SD Bullion, but I suspect they will be close to Apmex.

 

[TolmiePeak]

Two other big precious metal dealers are JM Bullion and SD Bullion, but I suspect they will be close to Apmex.

They will take a big cut though. Not like you can get commission free trading like you can with stocks.

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

They will take a big cut though. Not like you can get commission free trading like you can with stocks.

The commissions are hidden. They make money off your trade. (I used to be in the "beating heart" of the stock settlement business as a programmer.)

 

[TolmiePeak]

The commissions are hidden. They make money off your trade. (I used to be in the "beating heart" of the stock settlement business as a programmer.)

Sure fractions of a penny. The gold dealers are crooks and will cheat you blind. I don't trust something that has zero inherent value. I prefer hard assets.

 

[VacationForever]

You might try https://www.apmex.com/sell-gold-sell-silver-overview for a quote.

Difficult for me to trust mailing in my valuables/gold to an internet company. I would prefer to go to a brick and mortar store.

 

[MULTIZ321]

6 Blue-Chip Dividend Giants
Every Passive Income Investor
Should Own

6 Blue-Chip Dividend Giants Every Passive Income Investor Should Own

Here are six outstanding dividend stocks that every growth and passive income investor should own and plan to hold on to for years.

247wallst.com

Richard

 

[TolmiePeak]

Difficult for me to trust mailing in my valuables/gold to an internet company. I would prefer to go to a brick and mortar store.

Well you are far more likely to get ripped off by a brick and mortar store where they will try to take a 20% cut when you sell.

 

[Brett]

here's one just for "renter" !

Index Funds Are Cheap. Trading index funds can cost you
Index funds are a great way to match the performance of the market. So why do so many investors end up falling short?

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investi...-to-a-sure-thing-in-the-stock-market-bc319230

"Index funds have made investing simple. These portfolios that seek to match, rather than beat, a market’s returns usually charge extremely low fees and generate low tax bills. If you buy a handful of index funds, sit on them for decades and never do another thing, you’re likely to outperform nearly everyone who tries to beat the market by trading—including most professionals.

But what’s the fun in that? Can you endure a lifetime of barbecues and cocktail parties where other people brag about their winning trades and all you can do is mutter, “Umm, I own index funds and I haven’t made a trade in a decade?

Those who buy and hold will earn investor returns close to their funds’ reported total returns. Those who trade index funds will earn investor returns lower than those
of the funds they own. Too many investors aren’t patient, however, and often bet on narrower slices of the market. Because index funds are cheaper and diverge less from their benchmarks than actively managed funds do, they’ve become the vehicle of choice for these short-term bets. Look at sector funds, those portfolios of stocks in a specific industry like technology or energy. There, every bit of noise can feel like news, goading people into trying to get rich quick. Rapid wrongfooted trades can quickly push investor returns far below the funds’ own returns."

 

[RENTER]

The other day when the market was down 0.89%. I was up 0.03%. When the market was up yesterday 1.15%, I was only up 0.11%. I can live with that. That is a 0.07 percent average for 2 days. If I can do that for 250 days, that is a 17.5% annual return.

Now when I get mocked for posting this, remember people with egos take simple things and make them complicated to try to impress people that they understand it when others don't.

People without egos try to find simple problems to complex things and share it with people knowing they will understand it.

 

[TolmiePeak]

Now when I get mocked for posting this, remember people with egos take simple things and make them complicated to try to impress people that they understand it when others don't.

The only people that should be mocked are those that claim they can time the market or have a "system" that works to beat the market. Both claims are complete nonsense. The only people making money with a "system" are those selling training courses on how to use such system.

 

[VacationForever]

Well you are far more likely to get ripped off by a brick and mortar store where they will try to take a 20% cut when you sell.

There is no recourse when an online store fails to credit you the amount. Expensive attorney is not my cup of tea. I would rather take the 20% cut.

 

[TolmiePeak]

There is no recourse when an online store fails to credit you the amount. Expensive attorney is not my cup of tea. I would rather take the 20% cut.

How is there any more recourse with a brick and mortar operation? That is why I closed my US Bank account in 2005. I had a problem with my account and thought they could help me at the branch. They didn't and told me to call the 800 number. I closed my account the next week and have been using Fidelity every since.

 

[VacationForever]

How is there any more recourse with a brick and mortar operation? That is why I closed my US Bank account in 2005. I had a problem with my account and thought they could help me at the branch. They didn't and told me to call the 800 number. I closed my account the next week and have been using Fidelity every since.

You have banking problems, that is a different issue.

You go to a brick and mortar place and agree on the price of the sale of gold, you hand over gold and you get cash.

 

[letsgobobby]

The other day when the market was down 0.89%. I was up 0.03%. When the market was up yesterday 1.15%, I was only up 0.11%. I can live with that. That is a 0.07 percent average for 2 days. If I can do that for 250 days, that is a 17.5% annual return.

Now when I get mocked for posting this, remember people with egos take simple things and make them complicated to try to impress people that they understand it when others don't.

People without egos try to find simple problems to complex things and share it with people knowing they will understand it.

subject your "system" to a professional audit and include bid-ask spreads, fees, and taxes on short term capital gains. then compare it to an approrpriate, risk-adjusted benchmark.

then i'll start caring about anything you post.

 

[letsgobobby]

Well you are far more likely to get ripped off by a brick and mortar store where they will try to take a 20% cut when you sell.

I sold my 3 oz Au and 40 oz Ag for 90% of spot yesterday. That seemed fair. He has expenses, and has to make a living. He has to carry a gun all day long for pete's sake.