[ 2008 ] SVO eBay Sales

[grgs]

Did I get a good deal?

I think so. I like the resort and for Starwood the mf aren't bad. If you're buying to use, you'll be fine. Even with the new rules trading in II, it still seems to trade decently.

Glorian

 

[vacationtime1]

Did I get a good deal?

You did fine. As increasing numbers of posts are noting, the real cost is the ongoing maintenance fees, not the acquisition cost.

You bought an even year -- i.e. starting in 2010. It is imperative that you take immediate steps to have the seller reserve your use week for next year, especially if you want a prime week, such as March. Those weeks may already be unavailable, but the sooner you try, the better.

 

[Simon007]

I just won the auction for the 1 BR Premium at HRA (Gold season). Final price was 3320$ + Closing. I very happy about this purchase. A few days ago, I got another one for 999$ but for the Silver.
Cant wait to go back.

 

[tomandrobin]

I just won the auction for the 1 BR Premium at HRA (Gold season). Final price was 3320$ + Closing. I very happy about this purchase. A few days ago, I got another one for 999$ but for the Silver.
Cant wait to go back.

Very good price, great season for HRA....IMO.....See you at Aquaventure.

 

[thinze3]

Who would have ever believed this price a couple of years ago?
WKORV annual 2BR OV just sold on eBay for $12,000.

Item #200411735906

 

[mtnpilot]

Well, with these insanely increasing maintenance fees, the bottom is dropping on Starwood properties.... Are we in a death spiral?

 

[ondeadlin]

I wouldn't say death spiral, but a fundamental revaluation of timeshares.

And one in which higher MF and changes in trading power will quickly drive values down.

 

[Stefa]

Well, with these insanely increasing maintenance fees, the bottom is dropping on Starwood properties.... Are we in a death spiral?

If they can get the MFs under control, WKORV and WKORVN will be fine. A week at the Maui Westin is still worth the MFs. It just isn't worth the high MFs (with the risk of higher fees in the future) plus a large buy-in price.

 

[jarta]

mtn, ... "Are we in a death spiral?"

You were commenting on a sale at WKORV for $12K. In case you haven't noticed, the prices on all timeshares are way, way down. It's either a death spiral or a tremendous buying opportunity if the bottom can be determined.

From an eBay ad this morning - Marriott Waiohai - Poipu, Kauai (ranked #13 by TUG) - 2 weeks - annual assessment $1.2K each - $15K each - no bidders while active. Supposedly purchased from the developer years ago for $32K each. ... eom

 

[ocdb8r]

I wouldn't say death spiral, but a fundamental revaluation of timeshares.

And one in which higher MF and changes in trading power will quickly drive values down.

I think maint. fees are the bottom line. $2500 every year, just for the pleasure of stepping foot into the door isn't the "bargain" many owners were sold on. Tack on airfare, food, and activities for a family for 4 or more, and suddenly you realize that having and obligation to take a + or - $10K vacation each year isn't all it is cracked up to be.

I think we will continue to see bargain prices for some time...eventually HOA's, even developer controlled, are going to have to dump non-paying inventory into the market somehow just to get maint. fees paid. I just wonder how the quality of the resorts will hold up...Starwood is likely to penny pinch anyplace necessary to keep their fees rolling in.

If they can get the MFs under control, WKORV and WKORVN will be fine. A week at the Maui Westin is still worth the MFs. It just isn't worth the high MFs (with the risk of higher fees in the future) plus a large buy-in price.

I think even this is a tenuous statement. $350/night goes a long way, especially in a down economy with options such as priceline and hotwire. Add to those vacation package pricing and it's starting to be a questionable value proposition. While I agree that right now it might JUST be worth maintenance fees, given the cost of entry (even at only $12k) and the ongoing obligation that you pay for that week every year, plus the possibility of maintenance fees continuing to increase beyond inflation, I think it's a losing proposition.

 

[DanCali]

mtn, ... "Are we in a death spiral?"

You were commenting on a sale at WKORV for $12K. In case you haven't noticed, the prices on all timeshares are way, way down. It's either a death spiral or a tremendous buying opportunity if the bottom can be determined.

From an eBay ad this morning - Marriott Waiohai - Poipu, Kauai (ranked #13 by TUG) - 2 weeks - annual assessment $1.2K each - $15K each - no bidders while active. Supposedly purchased from the developer years ago for $32K each. ... eom

Maintenance fees at Waiohai are more like $1500 these days (from RedWeek postings). Here is the history of MF increases... and feel free to compare that trend with Starwood's. It's actually pretty steep increases too but still makes you wonder why WPORV is $2600 and counting.

I wouldn't really use developer prices as a benchmark for anything related to the resale market. The trend in resale prices would be interesting but there is limilted data in Marriott's ROFR database to infer too much, especially since I think these villas have deeded views so you need to compare apples to apples.

The problem is that a resale buyer who wants to buy a high end timeshare on these islands is asking "Do I want to pay MFs of $1500 for a Marriott TS or MFs of $2500 for a Starwood one, where the MF increases for the latter are more uncertain?" - the answer to that question is reflected in resale price declines for SVO properties. Snorkel reef on Maui or not, or however nicer WPORV may be than the Marriott in Poipu, I would pick Marriott in a heartbeat these days.

 

[jarta]

DanCali, ... Very interesting points about developer v. resale prices and Maui v. Kauai.

But, does that mean that the point of my post (all timeshare resale prices are plummeting) is somehow wrong.

2 Marriott weeks in Hawaii. Resort ranked #13 among all resorts by TUG. Sunny, sandy Poipu, not rainy Princeville. Assessments of about 1/2 of WKORV. No bidders at $15K for either or $30K for both.

If you and everyone else would pick Marriott, where were the bidders? ... eom

 

[Stefa]

The Waiohai weeks are garden view and are dedicated 2br units. Also, I've noticed that auctions with a high starting bid, even when it is realistic, get less response.

I agree with the basic point that ts values are down no matter what system you are talking about. I'm just not sure this is the best example since I'm not surprised they didn't sell.

It is also worth noting that neither of these acutions were by the larger, more established ebay timeshare resellers. This would also discourage some potential bidders.

 

[jarta]

Stefa, ... "It is also worth noting that neither of these acutions were by the larger, more established ebay timeshare resellers. This would also discourage some potential bidders."

Yes, some bidders. But, if the price ($15K) was right a dedicated eBay purchaser would bid and get the details straightened out later. Winning a bid on eBay does not bind you to purchase if the contract or deed is not "right" or the units are not what is advertised.

I just thought that the people who are mad at Starwood because a Hawaiian unit sold for $12K were forgetting to look at other plummeting timeshare values. I still think they don't get the proposition that in this economy values are plummeting for all timeshares - not just the SVO ones.

There is a 148,100 Staroption 2-br at WKV that has 2 days left and the price is only $8,900. (And, this is so even though I belileve the seller is engaging in automatic shill bidding to drive up the price and disguise the fact that there really are few actual bidders bidding.) ... eom

 

[DanCali]

DanCali, ... Very interesting points about developer v. resale prices and Maui v. Kauai.

But, does that mean that the point of my post (all timeshare resale prices are plummeting) is somehow wrong.

2 Marriott weeks in Hawaii. Resort ranked #13 among all resorts by TUG. Sunny, sandy Poipu, not rainy Princeville. Assessments of about 1/2 of WKORV. No bidders at $15K for either or $30K for both.

If you and everyone else would pick Marriott, where were the bidders? ... eom

No, your point is no wrong. I just think prices are plummeting at different slopes and Starwood is among the very worst in terms of loss of equity for owners. WKORV OV from $40K on the resale market to $11K on the resale market in about two years - it's hard to find a Marriott in the Platinum season with that level of value destruction.

Why do you think $15K is a fair price for Marriott Waiohai? Have you been following these a lot? There are 3 units posted on RedWeek asking $15K so $15K is too high... There is no reason to bid $15K if you can wait for the next auction and get the same item for $12K... If someone is savvy enough to bid on a timeshare on eBay they probably know the right price. I personally wouldn't bid on an auction that had a starting price which was greater than 75% of what I was willing to pay... - just in case my valuation was too high I'd want to avoid the "winner's curse".

Start an auction at $1 and the bidders will come...

 

[DanCali]

There is a 148,100 Staroption 2-br at WKV that has 2 days left and the price is only $8,900. (And, this is so even though I belileve the seller is engaging in automatic shill bidding to drive up the price and disguise the fact that there really are few actual bidders bidding.) ... eom

WKV has always been the "value" within Starwood (and still is). However, even there the fees doubled over 5 years and if that trend continues you can be sure the resale prices will not last. I like the property and would even consider buying there but the trend is scary.

Can you justify why it is now 70%+ more expensive to maintain a timeshare in the AZ desert than it was in 2004 - at least in the Starwood world? I can't... By the way Marriott Canyon Villas in the same area had operating fee declines over a 5 year period! (their MFs overall had relatively modest increases but it was due to elimination of developer contributions). Marriott MFs are around $900, WKV MFs are around $1300. They were a lot closer 5 years ago...

That said, the WKV auction you are referring to should end much higher - most of the price moves come in the last 5 minutes anyway for highly desired items.

 

[Stefa]

Stefa, ... "It is also worth noting that neither of these acutions were by the larger, more established ebay timeshare resellers. This would also discourage some potential bidders."

Yes, some bidders. But, if the price ($15K) was right a dedicated eBay purchaser would bid and get the details straightened out later. Winning a bid on eBay does not bind you to purchase if the contract or deed is not "right" or the units are not what is advertised.

I just thought that the people who are mad at Starwood because a Hawaiian unit sold for $12K were forgetting to look at other plummeting timeshare values. I still think they don't get the proposition that in this economy values are plummeting for all timeshares - not just the SVO ones.

jarta

I meant that both the WKORV and the Waiohai were being auctioned by private sellers. The WKORV might have sold for more had it been offered by a more established seller.

While it is true that you can bid and negotiate later, I have noticed that low-volume sellers get less action. This matters because you only need two bidders (or 1 bidder + one shill) to bid up an auction. The winning bidder of the Maui week may have been willing to pay $15k, but they didn't have to because there was no one else willing to pay more at this particular time to buy from that particular seller. The exact same unit may sell for $15,000 next week.

As for the Waiohai week. I'm not surprised it didn't get any action at that price for a garden view, especially given that the seller seemed convinced they were offering the deal of the century. Lets just pretend, though, that I thought $15,000 was a fair price. I still may choose not to bid because I am hoping it will be relisted for a lower price. If I thought it was worth significantly more than $15k, it would make sense to jump in at the last minute with a minimum bid, otherwise, I'd hope for a better deal.

 

[jarta]

Stefa, ... So, I guess, the concensus is that $15K is too much for a 2-br at Marriott's Waiohai with a $1.5K assessment and, even though everyone prefers owning at Marriott, it should have been advertised for lower to attract any bids.

But, the $12K bid price at for a 2-br at WKORV was relatively OK and shows Starwood prices are plummeting due to the annual assessment of about $2.8K. (There is a WKV with 148,100 Staroptions and a $1.3K assessment that is at $8.9K on eBay with 2 days left on a 7 day listing by a timeshare resale company.)

It's OK with me that you believe your logic. I just don't.

I think that the "death spiral" possibility is something that is an existential threat to timesharing in general. It's just how steep the spiral is (or will become). There seem to be far more timeshares out there than the present vacation market demand is able or willing to support. It may be only temporary; then, again, it may be permanent or long-lasting enough to put a lot of timeshare resorts under. Those associated with the stronger chains (Starwood, Marriott, Disney and Hilton), IMO, have a better chance of being there when the smoke clears. ... eom

 

[DanCali]

Can you justify why it is now 70%+ more expensive to maintain a timeshare in the AZ desert than it was in 2004 - at least in the Starwood world? I can't... By the way Marriott Canyon Villas in the same area had operating fee declines over a 5 year period! (their MFs overall had relatively modest increases but it was due to elimination of developer contributions). Marriott MFs are around $900, WKV MFs are around $1300. They were a lot closer 5 years ago...

jarta - So Stefa gets an answer and I don't?... I am jealous!

I guess you probably need to get a hold of your WKV Board golfing buddy to come up with a good answer ifor this one...

I'll give you an incentive to figure it out - if you can convince me that there is a good reason why Canyon Villas operating expenses can be down to flat over a 6 year period and Starwood MFs at WKV double over the same period, I may even admit Starwood is ripping owners off probably no worse than Marriott. Until then they are the worst in my books.

 

[jarta]

DanCali, ... Your envy is showing. Why does one off-chance pairing my wife and I had with a president of a well-managed, low assessment Starwood resort and his wife set you off so much.

I mentioned the chance encounter to show that the president of WKV is an ex-IRS collections supervisor and that I learned this when sitting around after playing my only round of golf with him. When I first posted this information, the anti-Starwood TUG Gospel was that every member of every SVO board was a Starwood employee or a Starwood flunky. It's just not true and that baloney has now thankfully ceased. (Bella which had large 2010 assessment increases has the Episcopal Bishop of Dallas as its HOA president.)

BTW, do I always have to answer your question? Is what you say that important? However, the answer to your question is found in the accounting statements of Marriott and Starwood resorts in Arizona. Any owner can get access to them to find out the differences. Why don't you look before you speak?

But, I can tell you this. I'd rather own and stay at WKV than almost every other timeshare resort in the world. That includes Aviara, or Troon, or Harborside. I haven't yet been to Hawaii or St. John (and many, many more timeshare places) so I may not know what I'm missing. But, for amenities, ease of getting to the location, surrounding things to do, large, automatic discounts at the stores and restaurants in the Kierland Commons shopping center, use of the facilities at the Kierland hotel and friendliness of the WKV staff, WKV (except for the oven-like summer) is hard to beat. And, I'm not saying this because I once played golf with a boring, but competent and honest, duffer and WKV big shot.

Obviously, you have never stayed at WKV. ... eom

 

[DanCali]

Jarta - Since I don't golf, I don't have a reason to envy you (besides, it's not like you were paired with Tiger Woods or Annika Sorenstam...)

And no, I have not stayed at WKV but that is irrelevant. I imagine that many buyers at WKV buy there to trade via SVN to other locations anyway.

Getting back to the main point of low resale prices and high MFs. My conjecture is that Starwood is artificially inflating MFs to enhance their bottom line at the expense of owners. You call MFs of $1300 at WKV low (and they are - relative to Hawaii), but those MFs were sub-800 in 2005 (see 2nd post here). MFs here do not have to escalate to $3000 for resale values to go to zero - this is not Hawaii. Marriott's Canyon Villas property in the Phoenix area managed to contain MFs, despite eliminating a developer contribution. If you look at the "operating fee" column, they are running the resort for less money now than they did 6 years ago... pretty unvelieveable given energy prices and all the other "good stuff" we hear from Starwood.

Given that Marriott's incentives are actualy similar to Starwood's (they also get a cut off the top), what does this tell us about Starwood's MF increases at a resort only a few miles away?

 

[Stefa]

Stefa, ... So, I guess, the concensus is that $15K is too much for a 2-br at Marriott's Waiohai with a $1.5K assessment and, even though everyone prefers owning at Marriott, it should have been advertised for lower to attract any bids.

But, the $12K bid price at for a 2-br at WKORV was relatively OK and shows Starwood prices are plummeting due to the annual assessment of about $2.8K.

jarta

I clearly stated why these auctions may not be representative of typical sales at these resorts. I also said that the WKORV might sell for more next week. If you want to interpret everything anyone says on these boards as an attack on Starwood, be my guest.

There is no concensus about the value of Waiohai. I just stated my opinion. We are comparing two different views and two different islands. I don't think two isolated ebay auctions provide enough evidence to draw any conclusions.

 

[Stefa]

Dan

It's been several years since I stayed at Canyon Villas, but WKV is a much nicer property, imo. Also, MCV has 1br + studio while WKV has 1br + 1br configuration. I wouldn't necessarily say the quality and configuration difference justifies the fee difference, but it can't be ignored either.

 

[Ken555]

You call MFs of $1300 at WKV low (and they are - relative to Hawaii), but those MFs were sub-800 in 2005 (see 2nd post here).

I just checked my records, and this is what I have.

2006: approx $850
2007: $956.30 (includes taxes (anyone know how much they were in 2007?))
2008: $1044.58
2009: $1086.37 (3.85%)
2010: $1179 (7.86%)

+ SVN & Taxes (and no ARDA $5)

I haven't double checked these numbers so they might be off a bit...

 

[DanCali]

I just checked my records, and this is what I have.

2006: approx $850
2007: $956.30 (includes taxes (anyone know how much they were in 2007?))
2008: $1044.58
2009: $1086.37 (3.85%)
2010: $1179 (7.86%)

+ SVN & Taxes (and no ARDA $5)

I haven't double checked these numbers so they might be off a bit...

And my post said sub-800 in 2005, so that looks right...

And since you excluded taxes and SVN fees that's pretty much all operating expenses increases (unless a developer contribution was buried in there).

Looks pretty bad compared to Canyon Villas. I'd even say worse things but I don't wan't to be accused of making irresponsible accusations... Everyone can judge for themselves.