Hawaii. Go or No Go?

[ljmiii]

Let's hope the government can fast track development of a vaccine...

A vaccine may be a while away but in a few short months we should have sufficient kits for the ubiquitous testing of infection and for the presence of anti-bodies. Being able to tell in a few hours if you are contagious, have been exposed, or never been exposed to the COVID-19 coronavirus would be very, very useful.

 

[brp]

Indeed. There is some evidence that they way in which South Korea flattened the curve so quickly was in the early abundance of testing. FOr us, that pooch has been screwed on the early side, but efforts now will help from this point forward.

How South Korea Flattened the Curve (Published 2020)

The country showed that it is possible to contain the coronavirus without shutting down the economy, but experts are unsure whether its lessons can work abroad.

www.nytimes.com

Cheers.

 

[Talent312]

The U.S. has been playing catch up from the get-go.
We're close to the edge, health-wise & economically.
One can only hope that we play it smart going forward.

I don't presume to know that that is, but I think that
whether we'll pull-back or go-over is an open question.
.

 

[csodjd]

We have a trip 3rd week of May. We're keeping it for now to see how things play out.

Cheers.

Same here. Canceled my Oahu since it's just points, I'll use them next year. But my week Ocean Front at the Marriott in Maui is basically use it or lose it, and my air on American (for three) is effectively the same. So that's about $5,000. Figured I might as well wait until at least early May to decide. Maybe Hawaii will do a great job of stomping it out and by mid-May will be at least partly back to normal.

 

[DaveNV]

Same here. Canceled my Oahu since it's just points, I'll use them next year. But my week Ocean Front at the Marriott in Maui is basically use it or lose it, and my air on American (for three) is effectively the same. So that's about $5,000. Figured I might as well wait until at least early May to decide. Maybe Hawaii will do a great job of stomping it out and by mid-May will be at least partly back to normal.

The problem is that even if Hawaii stomps it out locally, every person arriving from another area risks bringing it in with them, which will start the contamination cycle over again. Sad to say, but I'm afraid your May trip is likely not going to happen.

Dave

 

[csodjd]

The problem is that even if Hawaii stomps it out locally, every person arriving from another area risks bringing it in with them, which all start the contamination cycle over again. Sad to say, but I'm afraid your May trip is likely not going to happen.

Dave

Well, that's a good point. It's going to be a judgment call by the Hawaii governor of just if/when to relax that quarantine rule. It's still 2 months away. I'm in So. Cal. IF (big IF), people are respectful and stay put, maybe it'll be safe by then. Save for two early morning market runs, I've not been out of the house in 9 days. Wife and Daughter 13.

On an aside, to all, note that one of the most dangerous interactions you can have is TALKING. A person without any symptoms can infect another person through the small droplets that naturally expel when you talk. Ironically, the words "Stay healthy" are particularly bad, lots of droplets expelled from the word healthy. I say this because even if you go to the market, it's best not to engage in conversation with others, including the person working the register, whom is probably < 6 ft away.

 

[ljmiii]

The problem is that even if Hawaii stomps it out locally, every person arriving from another area risks bringing it in with them, which all start the contamination cycle over again. Sad to say, but I'm afraid your May trip is likely not going to happen.

I am reasonably hopeful that in two months the US will be able to routinely test for COVID-19 coronavirus infections and antibodies.

This is how quarantines are lifting in China. People in Wuhan who test negative can leave starting Apr 8th. Those who test negative can leave the rest of Hubei province starting today.

 

[DaveNV]

I am reasonably hopeful that in two months the US will be able to routinely test for COVID-19 coronavirus infections and antibodies.

This is how quarantines are lifting in China. People in Wuhan who test negative can leave starting Apr 8th. Those who test negative can leave the rest of Hubei province starting today.

I hope you're right, (I also have plans for late May), but it still seems like an ambitious timeline.

Dave

 

[Panina]

I hope you're right, (I also have plans for late May), but it still seems like an ambitious timeline.

Dave

I just don’t see it for May.

 

[Finsadbel]

I know this has taken over this thread AND I am late in the game, but here’s my 2 cents.

As someone who has spent hours reviewing data, I would go out on a limb to say that both @brp and @alwysonvac are both correct in their respective views.

In response to what was said earlier in the discussion about the flu being more dangerous, perhaps and perhaps not. We will not be able to do a better analysis until we are able to get a better grip on testing and treatment. Because this virus is so new I think we need to avoid discounting the seriousness of this disease and focus on protecting ourselves and those around us.

The “curve” is going to take longer to flatten if younger adults fail to see the seriousness of this disease. In the last few days a 38 year old and a 17 year old (no known health issues) have succumbed to COVID-19. With increasing numbers of Myocarditis and ARDS, anyone is at risk.

In a previous post I put out there that individuals should be making educated decisions. I still think that’s good advice.

 

[bbodb1]

I have scrubbed our plans to visit Hawaii in late May / waely June sue to all the uncertainty and the fact that Wyndham has a March 31 deadline to move points to future years.

 

[csodjd]

I have scrubbed our plans to visit Hawaii in late May / waely June sue to all the uncertainty and the fact that Wyndham has a March 31 deadline to move points to future years.

I canceled my Lagoon Tower, because arrival was before May 20. But I'm holding on hope for arrival in Maui for the Marriott May 21. Key is that 14-day quarantine. If that's extended, no point going. If it ends, then we'll decide based on the big picture at that time.

 

[brp]

I have scrubbed our plans to visit Hawaii in late May / waely June sue to all the uncertainty and the fact that Wyndham has a March 31 deadline to move points to future years.

The only reasons I still have ours are:
1. I have some confidence that we'll actually be able to go
2. I have nothing to lose by waiting until a few days before

But my confidence is not high.

Cheers.

 

[WalnutBaron]

Let's hope the government can fast track development of a vaccine, or allow commercial companies to research & develop one. I think anti-viral medications would normally take years. There's one I heard of that was partially tested for Ebola but subsequently dropped, which is being trialed.

The government is already fast-tracking development of a vaccine, and many drug companies are pursuing it. Even so, we're about a year out from having anything available and widely distributed, according to the lead story on last Sunday's 60 Minutes program.

 

[brp]

The government is already fast-tracking development of a vaccine, and many drug companies are pursuing it. Even so, we're about a year out from having anything available and widely distributed, according to the lead story on last Sunday's 60 Minutes program.

There are also tests underway with a number of existing pharmaceuticals so see if they can do anything to mitigate impacts/fatalities. If something comes out of this, deployment of those mitigations could be much sooner. But still unknown.

Cheers.

 

[csodjd]

It is much easier to run an appropriate clinically valid test on a treatment than on a vaccine, especially where there are a lot of candidates for enrollment in the treatment trials. We can expect to see treatment results within a month or so. Vaccine trial results will certainly take a year or more. A sufficiently large number of people have to be vaccinated and tracked over time, and compared with an unvaccinated but risk-matched cohort. But even that can't occur until safety and therapeutic dose profiles are determined, which requires study of the pharmacokinetics (half life, kidney clearance, liver toxicity, etc.) among other things. It's complicated.

 

[ocdb8r]

Thus far most of the discussions about what's next have been very binary: will this "go away" such that we return to normal soon, or by X date....or will things stay locked down as they are for much longer. I suspect we will actually move toward a "new normal" in-between state whereby certain at risk groups are expected to continue to isolate themselves, certain low-risk groups will get back to closer to normal and those in between will be left to make a judgment call based on their own circumstances. Once we "flatten the curve" I believe the goal will shift to having measures in place that keep it flat/under the hospital capacity line (rather than trying to further compress it). That means an acceptance that it will continue to spread and a focus on protecting only the most vulnerable (i.e. those with an unacceptably high mortality rate).

Based on that, I think there are a number of things coming down the pipeline quicker than the vaccine that will help:

• a variety of possible treatments that could improve the mortality rate (anti-virals, biologics and other medications);
• an antibody test which will identify those who have already been exposed to the virus and have developed antibodies, making them low risk at getting or transmitting the infection (even if they had no symptoms....or had symptoms but were never able to be tested for live virus) - although it's still not clear how long these antibodies remain effective, there will be an assumption that those with antibodies are likely protected for at least a year; and
• more robust and widely available testing for the live virus, which will allow more targeted quarantine measures and exposure tracking.

The million dollar question is what this new normal will look like for travel. I'm not sure any of us can predict at this time but I think there will be motivation all over the world to find a way to make travel (and tourism) possible in order to get those revenue streams flowing again.

 

[brp]

Thus far most of the discussions about what's next have been very binary: will this "go away" such that we return to normal soon, or by X date....or will things stay locked down as they are for much longer. I suspect we will actually move toward a "new normal" in-between state whereby certain at risk groups are expected to continue to isolate themselves, certain low-risk groups will get back to closer to normal and those in between will be left to make a judgment call based on their own circumstances.

Actually, based on what I've been reading (here and elsewhere), I don't think people are really talking "binary." Every ting I've read acknowledges that it will not be gone, and we can't possible isolate long enough for that to happen. I think the reality that it will still be around is pretty prevalent.

Cheers.

 

[csodjd]

Actually, based on what I've been reading (here and elsewhere), I don't think people are really talking "binary." Every ting I've read acknowledges that it will not be gone, and we can't possible isolate long enough for that to happen. I think the reality that it will still be around is pretty prevalent.

Cheers.

It will be "gone" if/when there is either herd immunity or an effective vaccine (which is a form of herd immunity). But when there's a rapid "POS" test with a treatment that'll make it manageable.

 

[pedro47]

We have cancel our trip to Hawaii.

 

[Luanne]

We are hoping/planning for March 2021.

 

[brp]

It will be "gone" if/when there is either herd immunity or an effective vaccine (which is a form of herd immunity).

Or if we completely isolate for like a year

Cheers.

 

[csodjd]

Or if we completely isolate for like a year

Cheers.

I'd run out of wine well before that, so that's off the table.

 

[brp]

I'd run out of wine well before that, so that's off the table.

I've got about 450 bottles and a number of local places to get it. Booze, at least, is just not a problem, Hell, excellent choices at CostCo and, once one outwaits the TP rush and goes later in the day, minimal crowds.

Cheers.

 

[Luanne]

I've got about 450 bottles and a number of local places to get it. Booze, at least, is just not a problem, Hell, excellent choices at CostCo and, once one outwaits the TP rush and goes later in the day, minimal crowds.

Cheers.

Our local Total Wine is still running ads in the paper. Does that mean they are open?