You're Being Lied to About Electric Cars

[WaikikiFirst]

I do not know anyone who owns a Ford EV. A car dealer I know use to brag how Ford had 40% of the new vehicle registrations in San Diego County

reminds me when Bill recently had the 1000 ICEs per 1 EV idea that got me thinking about what I see. Repeat what I realized then: round here you'd think Tesla is one of "The Big 3", and at least one of the orig Big 3 is almost kaput.

My favorite Big 3? Bird, McHale and Parish, maybe the original "Big 3" too. P Pierce, K Garnett & R Allen close behind.

I don't live in SD county, but I'd be surprised if Ford has 20%, unless SD county has a heckuva lotta F-150s, etc away from the coast (of course, as I say many times ... I KNOW that data is readily available) ... quick search confounded by AI, which is pathetically unable to understand primary data sources ... but

what I read makes me think Ford has < 10%. I think F-150 is the #1 seller and it is only a few %. The data IS available. I have seen it, but can't find it quickly today

 

[easyrider]

Do you use your Sienna for a lot of local errands where the daily driving is generally under 30-40 miles per day? This is where PHEVs are ideal - whereby the miles that the battery alone can power the vehicle cover either the entirety or the majority of the daily driven miles. That way your daily driving is basically 100% covered by charging overnight at your home. A standard outlet works better for charging PHEVs since the battery pack is much smaller than a BEV, so in most cases you would never need to install a EV charger in your home for a PHEV.

My sister has a Prius Prime and plug it into the outdoor outlet near the driveway. These look way better than the old Prius, imo.

Bill

 

[easyrider]

BYD and a few other Chinese manufacturers have some compelling EVs these days. Longevity is TBD - but still - in some ways I wish the US would stop with the protectionist economic policies and let consumers save 25-50% on EVs in the US market. We keep hearing how people want cheaper EVs - letting Chinese EVs into the US marketplace would solve that problem literally overnight. This is coming from someone who is a major Tesla investor and consumer.

The problem is all of these Chinese companies have significant ties to the PRC which is a know problem with Intelligence agencies and politicians. These ties are the reason these products aren't going to be coming to North America and most of Europe. If you look at Chinese telecommunications you see the same problem with spyware and data collection.

It's never going to happen and probably for reasons other than trade protection which is another good reason to keep them out. China exports 80% ice to 20% EV. China is the largest exporter of ice vehicles in the world. China exported about 6 1/2 million ice vehicles last year. In contrast, the last report was the USA exported about 1.5 million in 2023.

Bill

 

[easyrider]

reminds me when Bill recently had the 1000 ICEs per 1 EV idea that got me thinking about what I see. Repeat what I realized then: round here you'd think Tesla is one of "The Big 3", and at least one of the orig Big 3 is almost kaput.

My favorite Big 3? Bird, McHale and Parish, maybe the original "Big 3" too. P Pierce, K Garnett & R Allen close behind.

I don't live in SD county, but I'd be surprised if Ford has 20%, unless SD county has a heckuva lotta F-150s, etc away from the coast (of course, as I say many times ... I KNOW that data is readily available) ... quick search confounded by AI, which is pathetically unable to understand primary data sources ... but

what I read makes me think Ford has < 10%. I think F-150 is the #1 seller and it is only a few %. The data IS available. I have seen it, but can't find it quickly today

While we were at Huntington Beach the ratio of any EV to ice was really heavy to ice. We were also in Sacramento, LA, Palm Springs and many places where I thought ev's would be popular because of gas prices. I think the ratio is much higher than 1000-1 outside of the niche EV areas in California.

With the EV rule of being able to drive in the CA carpool lane now gone and tickets being given out for about $490, EV heavy areas in CA are probably going to thin out a bit depending on how underwater the owners are on their EV , imo.

Bill

 

[easyrider]

Here is an article that supports Advanced Autonomous Vehicle Driving Safety
Uses Waymo data (which the author is quick to point out)

Car Crashes Are A Public Health Crisis. Autonomous Cars Are The Cure. - CleanTechnica

Waymo has released data showing its autonomous cars are much safer than conventional cars. Other companies should do the same.

cleantechnica.com

Recently, Waymo's have been found to ignore school busses and they continue to drive around the busses stop signals. It's happened so often it's now under investigation. Then I wonder who will be responsible for a spilled water bottle in a Waymo should that water spill disable the EV.

Bill

 

[HitchHiker71]

reminds me when Bill recently had the 1000 ICEs per 1 EV idea that got me thinking about what I see. Repeat what I realized then: round here you'd think Tesla is one of "The Big 3", and at least one of the orig Big 3 is almost kaput.

My favorite Big 3? Bird, McHale and Parish, maybe the original "Big 3" too. P Pierce, K Garnett & R Allen close behind.

I don't live in SD county, but I'd be surprised if Ford has 20%, unless SD county has a heckuva lotta F-150s, etc away from the coast (of course, as I say many times ... I KNOW that data is readily available) ... quick search confounded by AI, which is pathetically unable to understand primary data sources ... but

what I read makes me think Ford has < 10%. I think F-150 is the #1 seller and it is only a few %. The data IS available. I have seen it, but can't find it quickly today

Best selling vehicles in the US 2024: https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g60385784/bestselling-cars-2024/

Top 10 best selling vehicles in the US 2024 by car, SUV, and truck: https://www.autoevolution.com/news/top-30-best-selling-cars-suvs-and-trucks-246062.html

 

[HitchHiker71]

With the EV rule of being able to drive in the CA carpool lane now gone and tickets being given out for about $490, EV heavy areas in CA are probably going to thin out a bit depending on how underwater the owners are on their EV , imo.

Bill

Cali will continue to offer aggressive electrification incentives regardless of what the Feds choose to do - so I doubt it. It's not like a light switch and all of a sudden everyone stops buying EVs - as the reasons most people buy EVs have little to do with incentives. Sure we will see a lower demand in Q4 2025 due to demand in Q3 2025 being pulled forward due to the expiration of the federal tax incentives - but we will likely see US states offer higher tax rebates and incentives over the next year or so, especially in the absence of federal incentives. By the Feds own admission - all of this new legislation will only drop the average new vehicle price by $1000 - considering it's $50k right now - $49k doesn't make a huge difference. In other words, it's mostly political hype - not real world savings. This will likely result in the "big three", who cannot figure out how to manufacture BEVs profitably like Tesla, dropping BEVs from their lineups - which IMHO is only good for Tesla - as they will pick up market share - and as BEV adoption continues to grow - it will be advantage Tesla. Only time will tell, but I think in five years' time, especially when FSD goes Unsupervised in 2026 and the average consumer realizes they no longer have to drive themselves around and can own a vehicle that is provably much safer than any human driven vehicle, and can recover all that drive time for actual productive use or leisure use, the big three will be in real trouble, as they will have no answer for this technology any time soon.

EDIT: For example, last month we installed a 21.5kw solar array on our south facing roofing. From this point forward, that array will basically cover 100% of our annual electric consumption - including our Tesla EV. So, in other words, as long as we're in this house, we will never pay for "fuel" again. How much does everyone spend on gas every month on average? Most folks spend $200-400 a month on gas alone. That's not possible with any ICE vehicle.

 

[HitchHiker71]

My sister has a Prius Prime and plug it into the outdoor outlet near the driveway. These look way better than the old Prius, imo.

Bill

The Prius Prime is a nice-looking PHEV without a doubt, IMHO.

 

[HitchHiker71]

Recently, Waymo's have been found to ignore school busses and they continue to drive around the busses stop signals. It's happened so often it's now under investigation. Then I wonder who will be responsible for a spilled water bottle in a Waymo should that water spill disable the EV.

Bill

Meanwhile FSD 14.1.2 doesn't ignore school buses and honors the stop signals - even hand signals - all day long.

 

[HitchHiker71]

Recently, Waymo's have been found to ignore school busses and they continue to drive around the busses stop signals. It's happened so often it's now under investigation. Then I wonder who will be responsible for a spilled water bottle in a Waymo should that water spill disable the EV.

Bill

People spill water or other liquids in Tesla vehicles every day - no issues at all.

 

[easyrider]

Cali will continue to offer aggressive electrification incentives regardless of what the Feds choose to do - so I doubt it. It's not like a light switch and all of a sudden everyone stops buying EVs - as the reasons most people buy EVs have little to do with incentives. Sure we will see a lower demand in Q4 2025 due to demand in Q3 2025 being pulled forward due to the expiration of the federal tax incentives - but we will likely see US states offer higher tax rebates and incentives over the next year or so, especially in the absence of federal incentives. By the Feds own admission - all of this new legislation will only drop the average new vehicle price by $1000 - considering it's $50k right now - $49k doesn't make a huge difference. In other words, it's mostly political hype - not real world savings. This will likely result in the "big three", who cannot figure out how to manufacture BEVs profitably like Tesla, dropping BEVs from their lineups - which IMHO is only good for Tesla - as they will pick up market share - and as BEV adoption continues to grow - it will be advantage Tesla. Only time will tell, but I think in five years' time, especially when FSD goes Unsupervised in 2026 and the average consumer realizes they no longer have to drive themselves around and can own a vehicle that is provably much safer than any human driven vehicle, and can recover all that drive time for actual productive use or leisure use, the big three will be in real trouble, as they will have no answer for this technology any time soon.

EDIT: For example, last month we installed a 21.5kw solar array on our south facing roofing. From this point forward, that array will basically cover 100% of our annual electric consumption - including our Tesla EV. So, in other words, as long as we're in this house, we will never pay for "fuel" again. How much does everyone spend on gas every month on average? Most folks spend $200-400 a month on gas alone. That's not possible with any ICE vehicle.

You are definitely in the minority regarding your excellent electrification progress , imo. It seems like the cards are stacked against electrification in CA. The main reason most people buy ev's anywhere is it benefits them personally, imo. When gas prices come down, which it has in many places, and as emission regulations change, which they are, why would anyone bother with buying a depreciating vehicle unless they get it for nothing ?

In CA , I've read that some insurance companies are using solar panels as a reason to cancel a policy. I've also read that some insurance companies use EV chargers as a reason for non-renewal in CA. Oddly, in CA, some of the power companies won't allow solar power to be connected to grid citing black out concerns.

Bill