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You're Being Lied to About Electric Cars

I will believe this when it happens. ;)

Bill

It’s already in flight - will be in place by early next year. Lemonade already offers some of the best Tesla and EV insurance rates in the industry:


I’d already be with them but they don’t write in DE just yet.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
While I argue about the Tesla system and the move to Fully Autonomous System for vehicles
I disagree more with his process than I do with his achievements
The advent of Full Autonomous Driving will be an immense game changer
While there may be a few accidents per millions of miles driven
The accidents from sleepiness, distraction, impairment, or stupidity will be almost zero
There will be almost no need for body shops
There will be little need for speed enforcement officers
The automobile insurance business will be completely different
We are close to the implementation of Fully Autonomous Driving
Probably months, not years away
 
We are close to the implementation of Fully Autonomous Driving
Probably months, not years away

I wonder why you think this.

AV's are to radical of a change for insurance companies. There is a huge shift regarding liability when using a data driven AV compared to all other vehicles. Also, if you haven't noticed, the big auto makers are producing high power v-8's that people like again and the current political climate is not really supporting EV or AV sales . Currently, section 179 has been fully reinstated for bonus depreciation which means businesses can write off vehicles weighing over 6,000 pounds in the same year they purchase because of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Basically, our government wants business to buy large vehicles weighing over 6,000 pounds and the proof is the section 179 depreciation incentive.

At the earliest, things might come together for commercial AV's in about 3 1/2 years if they ever do at all. Personal AV's are at least a decade away, probably even longer, for many reasons with the biggest hurdle being regulatory and liability concerns.

Bill
 
There have been so many advancements, movements for change, and campaigns for scientific reasoning.

However, there one constant that seems immune to advancement and change. Bill's comments continue to be primarily driven by opinion, conjecture, politics and ideological thought, as opposed to rational, logical reasoning, grounded in established fact. So stay off his lawn.
 
Straight from the PDF document you provided, and I quote - for L3:



Proof that it is in point of fact a CONDITIONAL DRIVING AUTOMATION that sometimes requires human intervention and directly references the SAE J3016 taxonomy. Thanks for proving my point. Quit while you're behind already. The Deldot reference is irrelevant for the purposes of this thread.
Wow. Just take a step back and look at the question I prosed: Who is liable in a L3 autonomous vehicle accident. I know the answer to this question, but I don't think you do. I'm done trying to have a conversation about why L3 is not certified, because you are unwilling to accept the answer. This is not a debate, it's a fact that Tesla is trying to receive certification despite their system not being ready for the legal responsibilities required for L3 driving to be certified.

I've known Tesla's programming lead for Autonomous Driving for 15 years and my brother is a developmental engineer for Rivian. Might want to take a step back and be willing to listen, you might learn something.
 
I wonder why you think this.

AV's are to radical of a change for insurance companies. There is a huge shift regarding liability when using a data driven AV compared to all other vehicles. Also, if you haven't noticed, the big auto makers are producing high power v-8's that people like again and the current political climate is not really supporting EV or AV sales . Currently, section 179 has been fully reinstated for bonus depreciation which means businesses can write off vehicles weighing over 6,000 pounds in the same year they purchase because of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Basically, our government wants business to buy large vehicles weighing over 6,000 pounds and the proof is the section 179 depreciation incentive.

At the earliest, things might come together for commercial AV's in about 3 1/2 years if they ever do at all. Personal AV's are at least a decade away, probably even longer, for many reasons with the biggest hurdle being regulatory and liability concerns.

Bill
This is why Tesla Insurance exists in the first place. Tesla started it's own insurance company many years ago - Tesla provides auto insurance in 12 states at present, and will expand to all 50 states eventually. They have written roughly one billion in premiums this year (not sure how many actual customers). Tesla isn't going to wait for a solution in the marketplace, as has been clearly evidenced over time, they will do it themselves if needed. Lemonade is the only other provider I know of off the top of my head that is moving toward the Tesla insurance model. I disagree with your assessment. Almost without exception, those who practice resistance to progress are on the wrong side of history. Nothing, including the government, is going to stop progress. Once AVs become mainstream starting next year with robotaxi's spreading across all major cities, and on out from there, people will start buying AVs like candy - mostly from Tesla unless another legacy manufacturer can come up with a competitive alternative AV.
 
Wow. Just take a step back and look at the question I prosed: Who is liable in a L3 autonomous vehicle accident. I know the answer to this question, but I don't think you do. I'm done trying to have a conversation about why L3 is not certified, because you are unwilling to accept the answer. This is not a debate, it's a fact that Tesla is trying to receive certification despite their system not being ready for the legal responsibilities required for L3 driving to be certified.

I've known Tesla's programming lead for Autonomous Driving for 15 years and my brother is a developmental engineer for Rivian. Might want to take a step back and be willing to listen, you might learn something.

Where did you pose a question? I don't see any sentences ending in a question mark, which is the very definition of posing a question when using the written form of the English language and proper grammar.

That said, I think we might actually be saying the same thing, just differently. I agree that when the Conditional Autonomous L3 system is in use, the human is not liable. Since NHTSA has in point of fact endorsed the SAE J3016 protocol, as has already been clearly evidenced in prior posts, we can also agree that when the Conditional Autonomous L3 system hands control back to the human driver, or when the human driver is driving the vehicle and not using the L3 system, the human driver is liable. L3 is basically a bridge between L2 ADAS systems and L4 ADS systems, hence the use of the word Conditional in all of the relevant standards documentation (including the NHTSA documentation you provided). The human can still drive the vehicle and is liable when driving any vehicle that is equipped with a L3 CADS. J3016 doesn't have anything to do with liability - it has to to with technically defining the levels of driving automation.

If we go back to your first post - you're already agreeing with me: https://tugbbs.com/forums/threads/youre-being-lied-to-about-electric-cars.351199/post-3219686

In regards to liability NHTSA says: When the AV systems are monitoring the roadway, the surrounding environment, and executing driving tasks (autonomy Levels 3 through 5), the vehicle itself should be classified as the driver.

Bolded emphasis mine. So, when the CADS is in use, the manufacturer is liable, when the human is driving, the human is liable, and since it's a CADS and not a full ADS, there are conditions under which the CADS cannot function that require the human driver to take over - as is clearly outlined on both the NHTSA website and the SAE J3016 standard.

Let's ask Grok for advisory on this topic: https://x.com/i/grok/share/4BcTjHSCnv04ReyVCybnPP8YP

According to Grok at least, NHTSA doesn't actually have any written federal standard for L3 yet - so it's likely going to fall to state tort law as a result. Grok could be wrong though, but this is likely why Tesla and other AV manufacturers are pushing for a federal standard, including liabilities, for CADS/ADS vehicles - because meeting 50 different standards at the state level will be onerous. Not impossible, but certainly much more difficult.

Are you saying you know Ashok Elluswamy personally? Because he is the VP of Autopilot/FSD at Tesla and is still the programming lead. Or are you saying you know someone who works for Ashok? Because that's who I know, one of the programmers on Ashok's team. Lastly, do you own a Tesla? Do you use FSD every day? Are you speaking from real world experience in other words? Curious. We've been Tesla investors since 2018 and owners since 2023 and are a part of the FSD early adopter program (have been for a while now). I'm no expert on liability as it relates to insurance/tort law, but if there is one thing I know, the market will adapt as needed, and it will do so faster than many think, as is always the case as history teaches us. So whatever hurdles exist, they will be surmounted with relative haste. Probably not as fast as Tesla/Musk would like, but fast enough, certainly not the ten year timeline that @easyrider seems to think will be the case.
 
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This is why Tesla Insurance exists in the first place. Tesla started it's own insurance company many years ago - Tesla provides auto insurance in 12 states at present, and will expand to all 50 states eventually. They have written roughly one billion in premiums this year (not sure how many actual customers). Tesla isn't going to wait for a solution in the marketplace, as has been clearly evidenced over time, they will do it themselves if needed. Lemonade is the only other provider I know of off the top of my head that is moving toward the Tesla insurance model. I disagree with your assessment. Almost without exception, those who practice resistance to progress are on the wrong side of history. Nothing, including the government, is going to stop progress. Once AVs become mainstream starting next year with robotaxi's spreading across all major cities, and on out from there, people will start buying AVs like candy - mostly from Tesla unless another legacy manufacturer can come up with a competitive alternative AV.

Currently, Tesla's insurance program covers up to Level 2 automation meaning the vehicles owner is liable for accidents they cause. I'm not sure how Tesla's Autonomous Vehicle Program Insurance, which supposedly covers the owner while driving using the self driving features, would work in a self driving mode accident because Tesla requires the driver to be in control of the vehicle. It looks very much the same as any other policy, imo.

How is this different from other insurance companies policies that cover Tesla other than providing a few perks like key replacement, wall charger damage and discounts for buying a self driving software ?

Bill
 
Currently, Tesla's insurance program covers up to Level 2 automation meaning the vehicles owner is liable for accidents they cause. I'm not sure how Tesla's Autonomous Vehicle Program Insurance, which supposedly covers the owner while driving using the self driving features, would work in a self driving mode accident because Tesla requires the driver to be in control of the vehicle. It looks very much the same as any other policy, imo.

How is this different from other insurance companies policies that cover Tesla other than providing a few perks like key replacement, wall charger damage and discounts for buying a self driving software ?

Bill
My point is that Tesla is not dependent on third party insurance companies to solve for problems related to AVs when it comes to insurance, since they own and run their own multi-billion-dollar insurance company already. This is one of the advantages of vertical integration that Tesla has over most of the competition. Lemonade is already building a product that will be released early next year that provides heavy discounts when FSD is in use since statistically it is already up to 9x safer than human driver on average. This is just a stepping stone while we wait for the regulators and insurance industry to catch up to the technology for any L3+ CADS/ADS where the manufacturer will have to take on liability.
 
where the manufacturer will have to take on liability

I can see the manufacturer taking shared liability for commercial applications where a company is in control of everything but that's about it.

Bill
 
Everyone is confusing liability and insurance. They are not the same thing. Insurance contracts do not determine the rules of liability.

In only a few states is there no-fault liability laws, and attendant insurance coverage. Otherwise, the law of torts as to car accidents is primarily vested in each state's laws, which for the most part is based in the tort of negligence. Federal regulations and recommendations may play into expert opinion, but they do not define the underlying liability. They may exist, but I am personally aware of no states that either absolve liability, or hold a manufacturer strictly liable, based on the current (or future) levels of automation.

Put another way, if your self driving car kills someone, you are not automatically absolved of liability simply because you weren't "driving." This may change in the future, but whatever Tesla or NHTSA or anyone other than each's state legislature decides, does not define liability in these scenarios.

Insurance just covers you for whatever liability you have given the laws where the accident occurred. Insurance does not decide, or in any affect, who is liable in an accident.
 
Everyone is confusing liability and insurance. They are not the same thing. Insurance contracts do not determine the rules of liability.

In only a few states is there no-fault liability laws, and attendant insurance coverage. Otherwise, the law of torts as to car accidents is primarily vested in each state's laws, which for the most part is based in the tort of negligence. Federal regulations and recommendations may play into expert opinion, but they do not define the underlying liability. They may exist, but I am personally aware of no states that either absolve liability, or hold a manufacturer strictly liable, based on the current (or future) levels of automation.

Put another way, if your self driving car kills someone, you are not automatically absolved of liability simply because you weren't "driving." This may change in the future, but whatever Tesla or NHTSA or anyone other than each's state legislature decides, does not define liability in these scenarios.

Insurance just covers you for whatever liability you have given the laws where the accident occurred. Insurance does not decide, or in any affect, who is liable in an accident.

That's a really good explanation Dave.

Bill
 
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